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The Rational Walk
The Digest #165 Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug...
a year ago
58
a year ago
Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug discovery, Small-cap opportunities, and interviews of Peter Brown, Bill Gross, Chris Bloomstran.
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US) Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
a year ago
134
a year ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
Mazdak
TFSA Talk: Unlocking Tax-Free Wealth 🇨🇦 Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
9 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is...
a year ago
166
a year ago
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Margin Call, Math, BNPL, AI and the Environment, Bonds, Favors, Tariffs, College
3 months ago
The Diff
Short-Term Discretionary Traders Are Unusually Automatable Plus! Dimensions of Competition; Jurisdiction; Streaming Fragmentation; Diversification; Twitter...
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206 The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
a year ago
142
a year ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
Mazdak
The Weight-Loss Gold Rush A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
a year ago
Mazdak
Amazon Glasses: Seeing the Future of Delivery Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages,...
9 months ago
54
9 months ago
Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages, and even take photos of deliveries as proof for customers.
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds are once again paying attention to weakness in stocks--it just happened to take a bigger drop in stocks that we saw last week. Despite the improvement in rates, we would still...
oftwominds-Charles...
It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that...
3 months ago
54
3 months ago
I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that I've maintained them. It was 20 years ago today--well, actually, yesterday--that I launched this blog into the swirling rapids of the Web. As we know, time flies when you're...
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales "Surge" to 17.8 million SAAR in March Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales...
4 months ago
31
4 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge in Preemptive Move to Potential Tariff-Based Price Increases (pay site). March sales were proof that U.S. consumers are very much paying attention to tariffs, as demand on a...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate...
6 months ago
29
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. The previous three months were...
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing Lessons learned from a quarter century of active investing, along with annual performance...
7 months ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tech Right, 10 bits, Smart Screens, AI, Gambling, Memes, Soviet Magic
7 months ago
Molson Hart's Blog -...
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries...
4 months ago
92
4 months ago
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”. These tariffs will not work. In fact, they...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final...
3 months ago
41
3 months ago
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 15% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
5 months ago
36
5 months ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
Seeking Wisdom
A great investor is a great rejector I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for...
a year ago
181
a year ago
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp...
8 months ago
34
8 months ago
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.   However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut at the March...
Commoncog
What Process Improvement in Education Looks Like What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
11 months ago
76
11 months ago
What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should be able to do this in your own org contexts.
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million...
6 months ago
24
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in January were below expectations; however, starts in November and December were revised up. Total starts were down 0.7%...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
7 months ago
57
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts...
oftwominds-Charles...
Here Come the Chaos Monkeys The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload,...
5 months ago
36
5 months ago
The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins. Chaos Monkeys excel at distraction and extortion. They appear suddenly, leaping about in disorienting mayhem,...
Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 45 States in February (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in...
4 months ago
29
4 months ago
From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in six states, and...
Mazdak
The 5-Step Blueprint to Achieve Financial Independence Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have...
6 months ago
39
6 months ago
Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have to work for money, but because you want to.
Mazdak
Cloudflare 2024 Internet Report Analysis Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in...
8 months ago
60
8 months ago
Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in internet traffic, security, and adoption.
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 28.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #227 Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
8 months ago
77
8 months ago
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased in 2024 Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persisted emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. From the FDIC: The...
oftwominds-Charles...
Ultra-Processed Life Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the...
5 months ago
53
5 months ago
Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the destruction and derangement of an Ultra-Processed Life. The digital realm, finance, and junk food have something in common: they're all ultra-processed, synthetic versions of...
Calculated Risk
"Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal" From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. ... In the bigger picture, today's...
Musings on Markets
Beat your Bot: Building your moat against AI It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest...
a year ago
24
a year ago
It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest mover, but Open AI introduced the world to ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. While ChatGPT itself represented a low-tech variation of AI, it opened the door to AI not only as a business...
Commoncog
The Study of Asian Tycoons What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control...
6 months ago
52
6 months ago
What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control them?
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
123
a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
a year ago
82
a year ago
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
The Diff
Expect More Politically Inscrutable Assassinations Plus! Coasian Bargains; Movies; Currency; OpenAI; Tariffs
3 months ago
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 2 Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto insurance business as well as nearly bankrupting GEICO.
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: 1.1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024 From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity...
5 months ago
33
5 months ago
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Nationwide, borrower equity increased by $281.9 billion, or 1.7% year-over-year. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April A...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in April. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
Commoncog
The Gambling King The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling...
6 months ago
58
6 months ago
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling king of Macau.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly...
7 months ago
39
7 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week...
Calculated Risk
Comments on March Employment Report The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and...
4 months ago
35
4 months ago
The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined.   The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to...
The Rational Walk
Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable...
9 months ago
70
9 months ago
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable majority in the electoral college but a likely majority in the national popular vote as well.
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million...
7 months ago
48
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up. Total starts were down 4.4% in...
Calculated Risk
Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.4% from the seasonal bottom seven weeks ago in January and should start increasing seasonally in March. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family...
FIRE v London
10 year review Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years....
over a year ago
76
over a year ago
Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years. But 10 years ago I started tracking my portfolio in a consistent, monthly way – unitising its performance so I could measure its return. It wasn’t until 2015 that I started this...