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Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.47% in December From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The...
7 months ago
39
7 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.50% of servicers’...
balajis.com
The Mirrortable Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
over a year ago
37
over a year ago
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month...
7 months ago
38
7 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.8% Annual Gain in November 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher...
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. ...
7 months ago
44
7 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data. New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 664 thousand in November. Dallas Fed...
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
111
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #162 Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform,...
a year ago
39
a year ago
Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform, Keeping a notebook, Singleton and Teledyne, The pros and cons of cancer screening
FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
a year ago
96
a year ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
5 months ago
25
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February; Recent Rent Trends at Two Large Publicly Traded Companies in the Single-Family Rental Business A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted...
Calculated Risk
April 18th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 months ago
24
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "54% of outstanding mortgage loans are under 4%" At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. FHFA’s...
4 months ago
28
4 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Freddie...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Higher inflation and slower growth" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the...
4 months ago
32
4 months ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Those policies are still evolving, and their effects...
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.7 million in January From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
5 months ago
31
5 months ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.3 million. Within...
Mazdak
Information Overload? Don't Be Fooled! In today's world of instant access and information overload, we often find ourselves bombarded with...
a year ago
50
a year ago
In today's world of instant access and information overload, we often find ourselves bombarded with conflicting opinions and dubious advice. It can be a challenge to distinguish genuine expertise from misleading claims and unqualified opinions. This issue of our newsletter offers...
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income? Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
a year ago
116
a year ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
7 months ago
45
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release December Existing Home sales on Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million in...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #164 Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on Charter vs. Disney, Taleb's favorite literary works, Buffett's Japanese investments, and more ...
Mazdak
Fed Signals Shift to Easing: Rate Cuts Likely in 2024, Economy Expected to Remain Solid. The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses,...
a year ago
49
a year ago
The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses, investors, and everyday Americans. After two years of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the central bank is now laying the groundwork for a shift towards easing
Mazdak
Perplexity AI’s Bold Move to Merge with TikTok As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a...
7 months ago
56
7 months ago
As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a surprising yet intriguing bidder to merge with TikTok US.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 25 and DOW futures are up 160 (fair value). WTI futures at $68.28 per barrel and Brent at...
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖 In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
99
a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "End the year on a weak note" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
7 months ago
37
7 months ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
6 months ago
41
6 months ago
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
Commoncog
Charlie Munger’s Supply Demand Curve Puzzle What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high...
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
4 months ago
31
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home Prices Continue to Cool" At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
4 months ago
26
4 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
Mazdak
Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of...
6 months ago
39
6 months ago
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of Ocelot, its first quantum chip, developed in collaboration with Caltech.
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.36% in March From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March The...
4 months ago
35
4 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.38% of servicers’...
The Rational Walk
Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the...
a year ago
111
a year ago
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the Democratic Party and allies in the mainstream media.
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
a year ago
118
a year ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
8 months ago
103
8 months ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas November 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 0.6% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 8.4% From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Punctuated by the...
7 months ago
47
7 months ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Punctuated by the second annual F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix and the SEMA tradeshow, Las Vegas hosted more than 3.3M visitors in November, slightly up over last year (+0.6% YoY). convention attendance was...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Margin Call, Math, BNPL, AI and the Environment, Bonds, Favors, Tariffs, College
3 months ago
Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried "The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
a year ago
Calculated Risk
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased 4% Year-over-year in December From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Ended 2024 on a Strong Note Despite...
7 months ago
25
7 months ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Ended 2024 on a Strong Note Despite Remaining Near a Three-Year High • The national delinquency rate eased 2 basis points (bps) to 3.72% in December, but rose 4.0% year over year – the seventh consecutive annual...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #205 Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio...
a year ago
77
a year ago
Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio rebalancing, Ben Graham in 1955, Sam Walton, LBJ, Robert Moses, The origins of language
oftwominds-Charles...
Corporations as Modern-Day Warlords Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an...
6 months ago
32
6 months ago
Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an apology to all those whose blood pressure will skyrocket upon reading this thought experiment. As we all know, science--the real thing, not "science"--advances via informed...
Mazdak
Understanding Family Trusts in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide What is a Family Trust?
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and...
8 months ago
46
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2025, Bill Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006. There is much more...
Mazdak
Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ... Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
8 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209 Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
a year ago
108
a year ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
The Rational Walk
The Power of Investment Journals Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles...
a year ago
43
a year ago
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles explores lessons I learned dating back to 2009.
Commoncog
A Vaccine for Anthropomorphism of AI How to resist thinking of large language models as friends. Or sentient things. Or intelligences you...
a month ago
22
a month ago
How to resist thinking of large language models as friends. Or sentient things. Or intelligences you have to treat like God.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #159 Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning...
over a year ago
53
over a year ago
Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning books, How Threads was built, BYD challenges Tesla, Katalin Karikó's inspiring life
Bits about Money
KYC and AML: beyond the acronyms Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
over a year ago
Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024? The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
a year ago
104
a year ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
over a year ago
103
over a year ago
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 7,...
Calculated Risk
AIA: "Business conditions at architecture firms soften further" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
4 months ago
43
4 months ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI March 2025: Business conditions at architecture firms soften further The ABI/Deltek Architecture Billings Index dipped further from February to 44.1 in March, as even more firms...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal...