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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.8% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Decreased 0.1% in March; Core CPI increased 0.1% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a...
4 months ago
23
4 months ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased...
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
January Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. IMPORTANT NOTE: For the household survey, new population controls will be used - and this will boost...
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
a year ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more...
7 months ago
28
7 months ago
It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more evidence on the limited power that central banks have to alter the trajectory of market interest rates. We started 2024 with the consensus wisdom that rates would drop during the year,...
The Diff
Moderation, Inside and Out Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More...
7 months ago
50
7 months ago
Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More Round-Trips
The Rational Walk
The Digest #183 Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing,...
a year ago
73
a year ago
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing, Rivian, AI's morality, AI bubble?, How James Longstreet defied the South after the war
Citation Needed
Issue 51 – It's quiet... too quiet It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
a year ago
Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
over a year ago
107
over a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The...
6 months ago
33
6 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of -1.0, up from -12.6. NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 47, unchanged from 47 the previous month. Any number below 50...
Calculated Risk
U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 14 Percent in 2024; 33% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 14.2 Percent Total bankruptcy filings rose 14.2...
6 months ago
41
6 months ago
From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 14.2 Percent Total bankruptcy filings rose 14.2 percent, with increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2024. This continues an ongoing rebound in filings after more than a...
Mazdak
OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all. In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of...
3 months ago
38
3 months ago
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to restructure as a for-profit company.
Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a...
6 months ago
36
6 months ago
The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. We expect a 0.34% increase in January...
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.7 million in January From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
5 months ago
31
5 months ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.3 million. Within...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate...
6 months ago
294
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
5 months ago
31
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦 The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
a year ago
48
a year ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
a year ago
141
a year ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 29.2% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
5 months ago
31
5 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
over a year ago
114
over a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
4 months ago
33
4 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18,...
Calculated Risk
January 25th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. SPECIAL NOTE:...
7 months ago
47
7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. SPECIAL NOTE: The CDC has stopped releasing health data (hopefully temporarily). For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised...
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized? Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
9 months ago
61
9 months ago
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
4 months ago
40
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 215 thousand last week. Durable Goods Orders for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.8%...
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x" Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
a year ago
Moneyness
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
7 months ago
26
7 months ago
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (down from 3.7% YoY in December), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
balajis.com
The Balaji Newsletter A single place for all updates at balajis.com
over a year ago
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
over a year ago
37
over a year ago
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
73
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
4 months ago
33
4 months ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Now I am on recession watch, but still not yet predicting a...
Musings on Markets
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers...
a year ago
19
a year ago
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers on companies that I should value next. While I don't have the time or the bandwidth to value all of the suggested companies, a reader from Iceland, a couple of weeks ago, made a...
Mazdak
Income Splitting with a Lower-Income Spouse: Strategies and Considerations 🇨🇦 Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be...
a year ago
62
a year ago
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be powerful tools for maximizing tax benefits and building wealth. This article explores various strategies for couples where one spouse earns significantly more than the other,...
Calculated Risk
Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen Here is a YouTube video of a discussion with Mike Simonsen. Enjoy.
7 months ago
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
a year ago
104
a year ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
a year ago
141
a year ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
Mazdak
Tech Today - Apple Smart Home Camera Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
9 months ago
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I'm still not yet...
Farnam Street
Tit For Tat Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated...
over a year ago
85
over a year ago
Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated games based on mutual cooperation or defection. Both players benefit if they cooperate, but one benefits and the other loses out if only they defect, and both lose out to a lesser...
Citation Needed
Video: The Cryptocurrency Industry's Unprecedented Election Spending Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political...
9 months ago
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to...
The Rational Walk
Just Hold the Goddamn Stock! Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock!...
11 months ago
72
11 months ago
Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock! Unfortunately, his advice is not easy to follow.
Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
7 months ago
198
7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy...
5 months ago
23
5 months ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal. At the Federal Reserve, we are intently focused on the...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
6 months ago
42
6 months ago
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
December 27th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
8 months ago
56
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Commoncog
Process Behaviour Charts: More Than You Need To Know The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional...
over a year ago
155
over a year ago
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional variation. This is everything you need to know to use it well.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #207 Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed...
a year ago
63
a year ago
Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed memories, Lost knowledge, Todd Combs, Walter Schloss, Bob Noyce, Nietzsche, Lincoln