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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the...
8 months ago
45
8 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250. emphasis added The...
The Diff
Storing Up Untainted Data Plus! Niches; Creator Economy; AI and Filters; Trade Wars; Peak Gaming?
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay...
6 months ago
30
6 months ago
From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Sales are recording solid gains, but production slowdowns capping dealer stock in a growth market – a market that ostensibly still is climbing out of the...
Calculated Risk
March 21st COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
5 months ago
31
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Trump Drops Tariffs to 10% Just minutes after Goldman Sachs put out a note forecasting a recession, Mr. Trump lowered all...
4 months ago
31
4 months ago
Just minutes after Goldman Sachs put out a note forecasting a recession, Mr. Trump lowered all tariffs to 10% (except China). Moving to a Recession Baseline We now expect the US’s effective tariff rate to rise by at least 20pp and are forecasting a recession with a 12-month...
Seeking Wisdom
Books I loved reading in 2022
over a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #211 Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist...
a year ago
93
a year ago
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist investing, Perils of forecasting, Orwell's 1984, Guy Spier, Ben Thompson, Estée Lauder
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1 This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
129
a year ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP)...
7 months ago
46
7 months ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth...
Mazdak
Workspace AI Features Now Included for Free Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered...
7 months ago
49
7 months ago
Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered productivity tools.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
7 months ago
43
7 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
Calculated Risk
April 4th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 months ago
29
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14,...
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and...
7 months ago
46
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2025, Bill Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006. There is much more...
Commoncog
The Gambling King The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling...
6 months ago
57
6 months ago
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling king of Macau.
The Diff
Information Economies and Institution Economies Plus! Distribution; Non-Tariff Barriers; Low-Background Text; Application Layer; Socks
4 months ago
The Diff
PE: Cycles and One-Off Events Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
5 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 81 – Crypto crime is legal Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down...
5 months ago
27
5 months ago
From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down two tenths to 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Mar 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.3% last week. [Mar...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
7 months ago
38
7 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales Fannie and Freddie: Single...
Mazdak
AI Fuels Alphabet's Growth Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
10 months ago
oftwominds-Charles...
AI Is a Digital Parrot: Word-Traps, False Logic and the Illusion of Intelligence Word traps and false logic don't lead to dominance of the future or monopolistic grips on limitless...
6 months ago
25
6 months ago
Word traps and false logic don't lead to dominance of the future or monopolistic grips on limitless profits. The heart of the current euphoric expectations for AI is a simple but problematic proposition: the equivalence of function equals intelligence. If using natural...
Bits about Money
Improving how credit cards work under the covers Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can...
over a year ago
35
over a year ago
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can be fixed. Stripe provides examples.
The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
a year ago
96
a year ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
a year ago
FIRE v London
June 2025: Show times I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite...
a month ago
33
a month ago
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite cities. But when he launches 30kt bombs on Iran, it is very hard to avoid talking about him. In the context of what Trump’s been up to, the welfare reform screw-ups by the Labour...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some...
5 months ago
56
5 months ago
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some clues that are worth considering.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1% From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4%...
8 months ago
49
8 months ago
From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model...
Citation Needed
Issue 83 – Trump’s crypto-backed plan to auction off access to the White House Trump’s crypto conflicts continue to multiply as Democratic legislators demand ethics inquiries and...
3 months ago
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
103
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102 Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, February 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index...
Citation Needed
Issue 82 – E-moluments As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the...
4 months ago
31
4 months ago
As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the Trump administration continues to dismantle those same rules while he pumps his personal memecoin with promises of private access
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
110
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Musings on Markets
The Imitation Game: Defending against AI's Dark Side! A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was...
3 weeks ago
23
3 weeks ago
A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was allegedly starring in, where after offering my views on Palantir's valuation, I was soliciting investors to invest with me (or with an investment entity that had ties to me). I was not...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
Calculated Risk
Housing and Demographics Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt:...
4 months ago
26
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt: I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010. The arrow points to the large cohort moving...
Mazdak
How DeepSeek, a Chinese AI Startup, is Challenging the Titans of Silicon Valley In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western...
7 months ago
51
7 months ago
In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western giants like OpenAI, Google, and Meta.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #221 Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro:...
10 months ago
71
10 months ago
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro: Success or Failure?, Berkshire in the 1960s, Whole Foods, Black Diamond, Merck, Wormholes
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
a year ago
175
a year ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Calculated Risk
Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
7 months ago
43
7 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.8% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 months ago
30
3 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 May. ... 27 April through 3 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 65.8%...
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
a year ago
125
a year ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 460 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
a year ago
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
a year ago
139
a year ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
balajis.com
The Elondrop Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
over a year ago
40
over a year ago
Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
Citation Needed
Curate your own newspaper with RSS Escape newsletter inbox chaos and algorithmic surveillance by building your own...
3 weeks ago
20
3 weeks ago
Escape newsletter inbox chaos and algorithmic surveillance by building your own enshittification-proof newspaper from the writers you already read
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
over a year ago
102
over a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Mazdak
Interest Rates Dip, But Will Demand Follow? As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a...
a year ago
56
a year ago
As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a curious conundrum. While the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for qualifying loans sunk to 6.83%, purchase applications surprisingly declined 1%. This begs the question: