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balajis.com
Network State Conference 2023 Come to Amsterdam on October 30, 2023 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Free Articles! All articles older than six months are now free to read.
a year ago
Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me? The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
a year ago
158
a year ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
The Rational Walk
Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend? Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well...
a year ago
133
a year ago
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well served by Warren Buffett's reluctance to send out dividend checks.
oftwominds-Charles...
Corporations as Modern-Day Warlords Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an...
6 months ago
32
6 months ago
Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an apology to all those whose blood pressure will skyrocket upon reading this thought experiment. As we all know, science--the real thing, not "science"--advances via informed...
Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
a year ago
The Diff
Short-Term Discretionary Traders Are Unusually Automatable Plus! Dimensions of Competition; Jurisdiction; Streaming Fragmentation; Diversification; Twitter...
6 months ago
The Diff
Storing Up Untainted Data Plus! Niches; Creator Economy; AI and Filters; Trade Wars; Peak Gaming?
3 months ago
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
111
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 3.7% YoY as...
4 months ago
30
4 months ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 3.7% YoY as of March 2025, down from 4.1% YoY in February. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 30th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.5% Week-over-week, Up 26.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will...
8 months ago
56
8 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in late January or February. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
93
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
8 months ago
41
8 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #168 Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's IPO, Costco's clothing, Todd Combs interview, Equifax, and more ...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #223 Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected...
9 months ago
64
9 months ago
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Market Prices as Political Predictors, The Three Indias, Semiconductor Progress
Citation Needed
Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”? Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How...
12 months ago
99
12 months ago
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How does it stack up to other industry polls, which are often heavily manipulated to paint a deceptively rosy picture?
Mazdak
Meta's AI & Reuters: A New Era of News? Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading...
10 months ago
44
10 months ago
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading global news provider, to bring real-time news updates directly to users through Meta's AI chatbot.
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in January On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and...
6 months ago
37
6 months ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from January 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Mazdak
Whatever Happens to TikTok, Big Tech is Coming for Its Millions of Creators TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing...
7 months ago
44
7 months ago
TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing an uncertain future in the United States.
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
5 months ago
26
5 months ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic...
4 months ago
32
4 months ago
The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 8th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March. ----- Wednesday, April 9th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
THE SLOW, EXCRUCIATING, DISASTEROUS DUMBING DOWN OF AMERICA Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average. This does...
a year ago
20
a year ago
Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average. This does not mean there are not smart people in Dallas. There are. What it does mean is the typical Austinite is just a little sharper. This makes for more pleasant conversations. It’s...
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got Your assets are the government's collateral.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: No major economic releases scheduled Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No...
8 months ago
44
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No major economic releases scheduled.
Calculated Risk
Goldman: "When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We Know?" Goldman Sachs economists put out a note this morning: When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We...
4 months ago
32
4 months ago
Goldman Sachs economists put out a note this morning: When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We Know? Most of the sequential inflation increases in the last trade war took place within 2-3 months of the tariffs’ implementation, and we expect spending growth to slow shortly after...
Commoncog
Under The Hood How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
9 months ago
78
9 months ago
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.9% Week-over-week, Up 29.2% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory always...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.2% from the bottom five weeks ago in January. The first graph shows the seasonal...
Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's...
6 months ago
36
6 months ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
8 months ago
64
8 months ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
Mazdak
Google Pays $700 Million to Settle App Store Antitrust Concerns Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling...
a year ago
56
a year ago
Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling a major antitrust lawsuit brought by a coalition of states. This landmark deal marks a significant victory for developers and consumers alike, potentially paving the way for a more...
The Diff
Will White-Collar Workers Experience a Blue-Collar Economic Recovery? Plus! Harvard; AI, Memory, and Moats; Grabbing Share; Concentrating Demand; When the Tide Goes Out
4 months ago
balajis.com
AI is polytheistic, not monotheistic And ten more thoughts on AI.
3 weeks ago
oftwominds-Charles...
When Markets Misbehave Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the...
6 months ago
38
6 months ago
Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of...
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
over a year ago
34
over a year ago
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
7 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
a year ago
122
a year ago
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
Calculated Risk
Friday: ISM Mfg, Vehicle Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates...
7 months ago
42
7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.3, down from 48.4 in November. Light vehicle sales for...
Mazdak
Inside xAI: Musk vs. OpenAI Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his...
9 months ago
43
9 months ago
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his former company, OpenAI, to do it.
Bits about Money
Credit card debt collection Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being...
over a year ago
37
over a year ago
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being sordid, for complex structural and microeconomic reasons.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
7 months ago
41
7 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in...
balajis.com
The Balaji Chat A forum for balajis.com subscribers.
over a year ago
Musings on Markets
The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025! I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the...
3 months ago
44
3 months ago
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. The month was off to a bad start, and tariffs remained the...
Calculated Risk
December Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is...
7 months ago
47
7 months ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs: We expect a below-consensus 125k increase in payrolls (vs. +160k consensus) in...
Mazdak
Protect Your iPhone: Apple Introduces Stolen Device Protection Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device...
a year ago
58
a year ago
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device Protection, currently available to beta testers. This feature adds an extra layer of protection to your personal information and financial data, making it more difficult for thieves to...
Calculated Risk
January Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. IMPORTANT NOTE: For the household survey, new population controls will be used - and this will boost...
Commoncog
Building a Valuable Business? It's How You Spend It That Matters The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business...
a year ago
Mazdak
Google & Microsoft $1M donation to Trump inauguration fund, Microsoft job cuts, Amazon ad business... Google, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and even Tim Cook are each donating $1M to President-elect Trump’s...
7 months ago
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
10 months ago
99
10 months ago
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th...
4 months ago
35
4 months ago
The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 15th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.3% in March From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased...
4 months ago
28
4 months ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3 percent in March but increased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent in the first quarter. The March decline was led by a 5.8 percent drop in the index for utilities, as temperatures...