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Calculated Risk
Economic Tailwinds and Headwinds After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were...
4 months ago
47
4 months ago
After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign. See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full.  I...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
10 months ago
FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
over a year ago
107
over a year ago
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
a year ago
116
a year ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
Moneyness
The end of El Salvador's bitcoin payments experiment Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use bitcoin for payments. Last month, four years later, it notched another record: it became the first country to rescind bitcoin's status as required tender. This backtracking was the...
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
62
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 8 for 2025: Debt, Taxes and Default - An Unholy Trifecta! There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of...
6 months ago
42
6 months ago
There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of people and businesses, borrowing too much and then paying the price, but a special vitriol is reserved for the lenders, not the borrowers, for encouraging this behavior. At the same...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,366,000. This is 9.8 percent below the revised December estimate of 1,515,000 and is 0.7 percent below the January 2024 rate of 1,376,000. Single-family housing starts in...
The Diff
The Economics of Logos Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost...
7 months ago
53
7 months ago
Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost Avoidance; State AI Investment
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in February From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
4 months ago
30
4 months ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226 Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
9 months ago
Mazdak
Trump's Antitrust Agenda: Big Tech in the Balance Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
9 months ago
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
7 months ago
52
7 months ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the January, March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in May. From BofA: We...
Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is...
5 months ago
34
5 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. Light vehicle sales for...
The Diff
Pathologically High-Margin Businesses Plus! Change My View; Capital Structure; Artificial Sycophancy; Elasticity; Internalizing...
4 months ago
The Rational Walk
Staying the Course It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the...
6 months ago
42
6 months ago
It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the long run.
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
8 months ago
25
8 months ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7% The latest headlines...
4 months ago
33
4 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7% The latest headlines involve heavy criticism of Fed Chair Powell on the part of The President. Without any comment on whether that criticism is justified, we can still observe that markets find it...
The Diff
Klarna and the Two Pivots of 2022 Plus! Diff Jobs; Crypto Adoption; Art Margin Calls; Liquidations; Corporate Espionage; DeepSeek
5 months ago
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
a year ago
126
a year ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
6 months ago
28
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 216 thousand from 213 thousand last week. manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a...
FIRE v London
Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the...
6 months ago
48
6 months ago
Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the so-called “Pakistani grooming gangs” scandal here in the UK, with Elon Musk weighing in. At the time it seemed remarkable but one month later, as I write this, I am pleased to say I can’t...
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
a year ago
138
a year ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
87
a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
a year ago
113
a year ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
5 months ago
24
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
Mazdak
RRSP vs TFSA: Making the Right Choice for Your Financial Future Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful...
9 months ago
55
9 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful investment vehicles available to Canadians.
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Benchmarking the U.S. economy Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! Benchmarking the U.S. economy that...
7 months ago
44
7 months ago
Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! Benchmarking the U.S. economy that President Donald Trump is set to inherit • While the U.S. economy still has challenges, especially lingering inflation and poor consumer sentiment, many important economic metrics...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT-5 On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
3 weeks ago
Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
a year ago
127
a year ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
Mazdak
Anthropic & Amazon Partnership In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup,...
9 months ago
75
9 months ago
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup, and Amazon, the tech giant with cloud dominance.
Citation Needed
Transcript of leaked call with Meteora’s Ben Chow A transcript of a leaked call between DefiTuna’s Moty Povolotski and Meteora’s Ben Chow
6 months ago
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
a year ago
118
a year ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year (Easter Timing boosted YoY Occupancy) From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March On the positive side of the Easter calendar...
4 months ago
29
4 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March On the positive side of the Easter calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported increases across the key performance metrics, according to CoStar’s latest data through 29 March. ... 23-29 March 2025 (percentage change from...
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Operator Tool: A Glimpse into the Future of Autonomous AI Agents Imagine an AI tool that doesn’t just assist but takes over tasks like writing code, booking travel,...
7 months ago
43
7 months ago
Imagine an AI tool that doesn’t just assist but takes over tasks like writing code, booking travel, or managing your schedule—all autonomously.
Calculated Risk
President Washington's Farewell Address I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief...
6 months ago
26
6 months ago
I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief excerpt: To the efficacy and permanency of your Union, a Government for the whole is indispensable. No alliances, however strict, between the parts can be an adequate substitute; they...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night: Markets Closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 US markets will be closed in observance of Martin...
7 months ago
43
7 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day WTI futures at $77.88 per barrel and Brent at $80.79 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are up about 5%...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately" Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal...
7 months ago
46
7 months ago
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew...
The Diff
The New National Champions Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile;...
7 months ago
64
7 months ago
Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile; Defense
The Rational Walk
The Digest #198 Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How...
a year ago
134
a year ago
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How to spend your days, AI and productivity
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
a year ago
oftwominds-Charles...
The Economy of Denial: Addiction, Extortion, Deception Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the...
5 months ago
46
5 months ago
Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the most opinionated become circumspect when the discussion turns to The Addiction Economy, for the term The Addiction Economy calls things by their real name, which disrupts our...
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
over a year ago
62
over a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Commoncog
The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business...
a year ago
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increases to 54.1% in December (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.1%, up from 52.1% last month. The...
7 months ago
41
7 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.1%, up from 52.1% last month. The employment index decreased to 51.4%, from 51.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 54.1% December 2024 Services ISM® Report On...
FIRE v London
June 2025: Show times I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite...
a month ago
34
a month ago
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite cities. But when he launches 30kt bombs on Iran, it is very hard to avoid talking about him. In the context of what Trump’s been up to, the welfare reform screw-ups by the Labour...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly...
7 months ago
39
7 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week...
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in November Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
8 months ago
42
8 months ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...