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Citation Needed
Caroline Ellison: A woman with agency or a helpless pawn? Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX...
11 months ago
The Rational Walk
Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend? Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well...
a year ago
133
a year ago
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well served by Warren Buffett's reluctance to send out dividend checks.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #156 Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century...
over a year ago
48
over a year ago
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century anarchy, Buffett and Japan, Claude Hopkins, Benjamin Franklin
Moneyness
Here’s why we tolerate fake check scams Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad...
7 months ago
26
7 months ago
Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad experiences with banks. Here’s a recent example. In November 2024, a charity inadvertently accepted a fake check from a would-be donor. The charity's bank allowed the charity to deposit...
The Diff
Two Kinds of News Business Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
5 months ago
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
9 months ago
46
9 months ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: "The process [of reaching inflation target] could take longer than previously... From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt: With...
7 months ago
39
7 months ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Retail sales for...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Retail sales for January is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a no change in retail sales. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January. The consensus is for a 0.3%...
Calculated Risk
"Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal" From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. ... In the bigger picture, today's...
Calculated Risk
March Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for...
4 months ago
26
4 months ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 150k in March, slightly above consensus ... We estimate that the...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Equity Nation, Hansa, Commodities, DOGE, LLMS, Recessions, AI, Rhodes, The GFC
5 months ago
Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal Accused of Incorrect Accounting Daily Journal has been accused of incorrectly accounting for software development costs by an...
a month ago
21
a month ago
Daily Journal has been accused of incorrectly accounting for software development costs by an activist investor seeking a consulting contract.
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.60 million SAAR in January Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales...
6 months ago
36
6 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Start 2025 With 4% Increase in January (pay site). There did not appear to be an end-of-month boost in demand, either as a rebound from the mid-month weather-related losses or...
Citation Needed
Issue 83 – Trump’s crypto-backed plan to auction off access to the White House Trump’s crypto conflicts continue to multiply as Democratic legislators demand ethics inquiries and...
3 months ago
Mazdak
Popular Business Tips That Are Actually Hurting Your Success In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice...
9 months ago
48
9 months ago
In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice that often does more harm than good.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226 Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
9 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #168 Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's IPO, Costco's clothing, Todd Combs interview, Equifax, and more ...
Mazdak
Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner...
a year ago
124
a year ago
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner faces unique financial considerations. One critical choice arises early on: to pay yourself a salary or take dividends? Understanding the pros and cons of each path empowers you to...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
5 months ago
33
5 months ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in June, and another cut later in the...
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 10% in December From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index...
7 months ago
36
7 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 10.2% in December to 212.0 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 192.3. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.2%...
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
7 months ago
197
7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Citation Needed
New York Times: Crypto's fragile foundations My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency...
a year ago
57
a year ago
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency industry that can lead to death spirals like the one at FTX.
Citation Needed
Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”? Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How...
12 months ago
99
12 months ago
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How does it stack up to other industry polls, which are often heavily manipulated to paint a deceptively rosy picture?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #191 The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
a year ago
108
a year ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, New Home Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
5 months ago
32
5 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The average mortgage lender raised rates modestly on Monday morning--a logical move considering the weakness in the bond market over the weekend. Rates are based directly on bonds. Bond...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48...
4 months ago
23
4 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48 and DOW futures are up 250 (fair value). WTI futures at $61.50 per barrel and Brent at $64.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $86, and Brent was at $93 - so WTI oil prices are...
balajis.com
No Cap Fed-killed banks took $100B+ from BTFP to stay afloat, but who's counting?
over a year ago
The Rational Walk
Free Articles! A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
5 months ago
36
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The...
8 months ago
74
8 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The Stoic Emperor, The Intelligent Investor, The Trail, and more.
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will...
7 months ago
55
7 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2025 Proxy Statement Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development...
5 months ago
72
5 months ago
Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development given Warren Buffett's prior statements.
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the...
Mazdak
Google's AI Search Tool: A Traffic Nightmare for Publishers? AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
a year ago
102
a year ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202 George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
a year ago
71
a year ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
Moneyness
Pricing the anonymity of banknotes Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a standard set of payments...
9 months ago
21
9 months ago
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a standard set of payments services, they also offer financial anonymity. This post introduces the idea of trying to price the anonymity component.  To help think about why we might want to price anonymous...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: "Inflation was likely to be boosted this year" From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 18–19, 2025. Excerpt: With regard...
4 months ago
24
4 months ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 18–19, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants judged that inflation was likely to be boosted this year by the effects of higher tariffs, although significant uncertainty surrounded...
Mazdak
DeepSeek Ban in Australian, Google Reverses Stance on AI Weaponization, ... 1.
6 months ago
The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million...
6 months ago
25
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in January were below expectations; however, starts in November and December were revised up. Total starts were down 0.7%...
Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
a year ago
131
a year ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
Calculated Risk
Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing...
4 months ago
31
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different A brief excerpt: We are in a period of significant policy uncertainty and there isn’t a good historical analog for the current period. However, for...
The Diff
When Step One is to Light Money on Fire and Measure How Fast it Burns Plus! Groupchats and Norms; Venture; Made in America; Real Estate Elasticity; Lagging Investments
4 months ago
Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
a year ago
109
a year ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
The Diff
Are VCs Incentivized to be too Nice for Venture Debt? Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9...