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Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024 Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
a year ago
111
a year ago
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 45 States in February (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in...
4 months ago
28
4 months ago
From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in six states, and...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
6 months ago
36
6 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #175 Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount...
a year ago
52
a year ago
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount rates, Evolving moats, Jay Gould, Garry Tan, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Steve Ells
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
5 months ago
32
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices)....
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
4 months ago
33
4 months ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail,...
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal Accused of Incorrect Accounting Daily Journal has been accused of incorrectly accounting for software development costs by an...
4 weeks ago
20
4 weeks ago
Daily Journal has been accused of incorrectly accounting for software development costs by an activist investor seeking a consulting contract.
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
over a year ago
174
over a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
a year ago
127
a year ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tech Right, 10 bits, Smart Screens, AI, Gambling, Memes, Soviet Magic
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE...
5 months ago
27
5 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January 1st Look at Local Housing...
balajis.com
The Elondrop Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
over a year ago
40
over a year ago
Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
7 months ago
47
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
a year ago
108
a year ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. ...
7 months ago
44
7 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data. New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 664 thousand in November. Dallas Fed...
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
a year ago
82
a year ago
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: 1.1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024 From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity...
5 months ago
33
5 months ago
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Nationwide, borrower equity increased by $281.9 billion, or 1.7% year-over-year. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which...
Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March;...
4 months ago
42
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales,...
FIRE v London
A stupid decision to sell my rental property I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth...
4 months ago
42
4 months ago
I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth around £1m, right in the heart of London – near the middle of the map below. I used to live in it, I travel past it regularly, I know its neighbourhood well. The Modern Flat has...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
a year ago
127
a year ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #185 Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at...
a year ago
79
a year ago
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at Alibaba's IPO, Chris Davis, Outsider CEOs, Shareholder activists, Oprah
Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
a year ago
114
a year ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #222 Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online...
9 months ago
72
9 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online Speech, Price Controls, Shakespeare's Caesar, Musk and SpaceX, Micro-Cap Investing
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
5 months ago
27
5 months ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
Calculated Risk
February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February,...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities,...
Bits about Money
A review of Number Go Up, on crypto shenanigans A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether...
a year ago
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
a year ago
54
a year ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.8% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 months ago
30
3 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 May. ... 27 April through 3 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 65.8%...
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.7 million in January From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.3 million. Within...
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below...
6 months ago
27
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous...
5 months ago
36
5 months ago
NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous adjustment, it appears GDPNow (adjusted) is slightly positive for Q1. (For more on the gold adjustment, see For GDP Forecasters, Some Gold Doesn't Glitter Our 1Q GDP tracking...
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in February, Intermodal Up From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
5 months ago
26
5 months ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Uncertainty shapes economic cycles — fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry...
Citation Needed
Issue 44 – Four The Justice Department's interest in Binance isn't just "FUD" anymore.
a year ago
oftwominds-Charles...
Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We...
5 months ago
43
5 months ago
We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We inhabit an Addiction Economy. We all know the cure for addiction is to go Cold Turkey: drop the denial and delusion of control, and excise the source of the addiction from one's...
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 2 This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for...
a year ago
115
a year ago
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I concluded the previous post by explaining how Attention works. You can download the Excel sheet and Python code that explains how Attention from here and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #204 Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
a year ago
112
a year ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Chicago Fed National...
8 months ago
58
8 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease. New Home Sales for November from...
Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
6 months ago
44
6 months ago
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
a year ago
99
a year ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24...
7 months ago
38
7 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Sales in December (4.24 million SAAR) were up 2.2% from the previous month and were 9.3% above the December 2023 sales rate. This was the third consecutive...
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
a year ago
110
a year ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
balajis.com
The Network State Book A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
37
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Commoncog
The Heart of Innovation: Why Most Startups Fail A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do...
3 months ago
Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
over a year ago
176
over a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
Commoncog
Stan Slap on the Art of Building Effective Employee Cultures Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent...
9 months ago
74
9 months ago
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent model for shaping employee culture.
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
62
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
Commoncog
Let’s Talk Corruption How to think about corruption when talking about Asian businesses. Part 4 of the Asian Conglomerate...
6 months ago
52
6 months ago
How to think about corruption when talking about Asian businesses. Part 4 of the Asian Conglomerate series.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business? In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
a year ago
18
a year ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
Mazdak
The Future of Healthcare: Your AI Health Pod is Here! 🩺 Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and...
a year ago
54
a year ago
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and hello to the CarePod, your self-contained doctor's office powered by artificial intelligence. Imagine: Stepping into a futuristic pod at your local mall, gym, or even office...