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Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
4 months ago
31
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th...
4 months ago
36
4 months ago
The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 15th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of...
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
111
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in December; Core CPI increased 0.2% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a...
7 months ago
34
7 months ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
Citation Needed
Issue 81 – Crypto crime is legal Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 155,000 in March From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in...
5 months ago
24
5 months ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in March; Annual Pay was Up 4.6% “Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of...
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
over a year ago
175
over a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #217 Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The...
11 months ago
81
11 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The Fed's Inflationary Bias, Jimmy Carter at 100, Sam Altman, Bruno Leoni, Thermopylae
The Rational Walk
The Other Side of the Trade Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other...
a year ago
121
a year ago
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other stocks to temporarily crash on June 3, 2024.
Calculated Risk
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased 4% Year-over-year in December From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Ended 2024 on a Strong Note Despite...
7 months ago
25
7 months ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Ended 2024 on a Strong Note Despite Remaining Near a Three-Year High • The national delinquency rate eased 2 basis points (bps) to 3.72% in December, but rose 4.0% year over year – the seventh consecutive annual...
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
over a year ago
103
over a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased in 2024 Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persisted emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. From the FDIC: The...
Calculated Risk
Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
5 months ago
31
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: This entire housing cycle I’ve argued that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 28.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
4 months ago
32
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 18-19
Moneyness
Stablecoins – a digital version of Swiss bearer savings books Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and open an account without showing any ID. The bank would then issue you something called a bearer savings book, otherwise known as inhabersparheften or livrets d'épargne au porteur....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #181 Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò...
a year ago
62
a year ago
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò Machiavelli, internal vs. external goals, Safe withdrawal rates, Protecting your time
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
10 months ago
39
10 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business? In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
a year ago
19
a year ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
Calculated Risk
Housing March 31st Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 30.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 8.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 Recession Watch Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures...
4 months ago
28
4 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 Recession Watch Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 200 and DOW futures are down 1,200 (fair value). WTI futures at $61.99 per barrel and Brent at $65.58 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $88, and Brent was at $93 -...
Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
a year ago
110
a year ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
a year ago
146
a year ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
The Diff
The Economics of Logos Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost...
7 months ago
54
7 months ago
Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost Avoidance; State AI Investment
Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
a year ago
77
a year ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
a year ago
Mazdak
OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.5: Here’s Everything You Need to Know The AI race just got more interesting.
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases...
5 months ago
34
5 months ago
The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, March 11th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Is China Taking Over US Retail? Yes. Let me explain. Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to...
over a year ago
19
over a year ago
Yes. Let me explain. Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to American consumers. In response, the Chinese, after having hollowed out American manufacturing, have moved up the value chain to do the same thing to American wholesale and retail....
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Richard the Great This is a eulogy for my father. Its goal is to honor the man for who he was and what he...
over a year ago
21
over a year ago
This is a eulogy for my father. Its goal is to honor the man for who he was and what he accomplished, but also to pass on the lessons we can learn from his life. Richard Michael Hart was born on November 1st, 1941 in Porirua, New Zealand. Richard was not so studious. He...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
6 months ago
29
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Musings on Markets
The (Uncertain) Payoff from Alternative Investments: Many a slip between the cup and the lip? It is true that most investing lessons are directed at those who invest only in stocks and bonds,...
2 months ago
40
2 months ago
It is true that most investing lessons are directed at those who invest only in stocks and bonds, and mostly with long-only strategies. It is also true that in the process, we are ignoring vast swaths of the investment universe, from other asset classes (real estate,...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
5 months ago
34
5 months ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in June, and another cut later in the...
Citation Needed
Issue 62 – Grassroots Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a...
a year ago
120
a year ago
Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a meltdown, and another exchange suffers a nine-figure hack.
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in January: Visitor Traffic Down 1.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Up YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Las Vegas started...
5 months ago
51
5 months ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Las Vegas started the year with January visitation of approx. 3.34M visitors, down 1.1% from last January. as Vegas convention attendance reached roughly 629k in January, up 12.8% YoY, supported in...
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
6 months ago
29
6 months ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
THE SLOW, EXCRUCIATING, DISASTEROUS DUMBING DOWN OF AMERICA Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average. This does...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average. This does not mean there are not smart people in Dallas. There are. What it does mean is the typical Austinite is just a little sharper. This makes for more pleasant conversations. It’s...
Mazdak
Is Tesla's Full Self-Driving REALLY Safer Than Humans? Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7...
10 months ago
46
10 months ago
Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7 million miles, significantly lower than the U.S.
balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.9% from the seasonal bottom eight weeks ago in January and should start increasing significantly in the Spring. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15...
8 months ago
43
8 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate). Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted...
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
10 months ago
96
10 months ago
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine? Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence....
a year ago
131
a year ago
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence. Recent development at Daily Journal raise concerns.
Mazdak
Anthropic & Amazon Partnership In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup,...
9 months ago
75
9 months ago
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup, and Amazon, the tech giant with cloud dominance.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Moody's:...
7 months ago
49
7 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Update: The...
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Inbound Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in December Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
7 months ago
48
7 months ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
over a year ago
36
over a year ago
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.60 million SAAR in January Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales...
6 months ago
36
6 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Start 2025 With 4% Increase in January (pay site). There did not appear to be an end-of-month boost in demand, either as a rebound from the mid-month weather-related losses or...
Mazdak
Finance News Roundup - Wednesday, 29th November 😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire...
a year ago
83
a year ago
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a close associate of Warren Buffett, has passed away at the age of 97. Munger was known for his wit, wisdom, and contrarian investment style.