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Calculated Risk
Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP...
8 months ago
45
8 months ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "third" estimate...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $0.2 Trillion in Q4 The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $169.4 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities...
Calculated Risk
Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025? Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with...
8 months ago
51
8 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the...
FIRE v London
My 20 year property returns I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But...
over a year ago
84
over a year ago
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But my net worth includes an important asset class – property – that I don’t normally track, but which I have held in some form for over 20 years. So, this post takes a look at how my…...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #204 Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
a year ago
113
a year ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Mazdak
Creating a Data-Driven LinkedIn Strategy: A Step-by-Step Guide One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its...
10 months ago
83
10 months ago
One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its performance, and adjust based on data.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The...
8 months ago
74
8 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The Stoic Emperor, The Intelligent Investor, The Trail, and more.
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
97
a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
70
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Moody's:...
7 months ago
48
7 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Update: The...
Commoncog
Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators?...
5 months ago
44
5 months ago
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators? We examine the career of one activist investor, to see what that tells us about the Asian tycoons we’ve been studying.
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches o3-mini: A Faster, More Affordable AI Reasoning Model OpenAI has just unveiled o3-mini, the latest addition to its "reasoning" model family.
7 months ago
Commoncog
Under The Hood How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
9 months ago
78
9 months ago
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Calculated Risk
January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay...
7 months ago
41
7 months ago
From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48...
4 months ago
23
4 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48 and DOW futures are up 250 (fair value). WTI futures at $61.50 per barrel and Brent at $64.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $86, and Brent was at $93 - so WTI oil prices are...
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
6 months ago
33
6 months ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (down from 3.7% YoY in December), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
a year ago
132
a year ago
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
Calculated Risk
Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
7 months ago
42
7 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase...
8 months ago
57
8 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase Since June 2021 Existing-home sales grew in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and remained steady in the...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.8% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
5 months ago
27
5 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The...
5 months ago
24
5 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The employment index increased to 53.9%, from 52.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 53.5% February 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
March Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 16.6 million SAAR, Up 5.9% YoY From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content). ...
5 months ago
38
5 months ago
From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Deliveries appear to have accelerated sharply in the middle of the month, creating momentum that could cause sales to overshoot the forecast. Conversely, overall...
Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins? As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
a year ago
95
a year ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week...
8 months ago
46
8 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Types, Ellison, AI, YouTube, Private Credit, Globalization, Lending, Huawei
6 months ago
balajis.com
AI is polytheistic, not monotheistic And ten more thoughts on AI.
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in November On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and...
8 months ago
61
8 months ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8 percent from November 2023. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
4 months ago
32
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #200 Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
a year ago
118
a year ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
118
a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
8 months ago
43
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market...
6 months ago
33
6 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market Volatility We know that mortgage rates are driven by financial markets and we know that financial markets have experienced volatility amid the roll-out of new tariffs over the weekend....
Mazdak
The 5-Step Blueprint to Achieve Financial Independence Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have...
6 months ago
40
6 months ago
Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have to work for money, but because you want to.
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
9 months ago
65
9 months ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 224 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The...
Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
a year ago
Commoncog
The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business...
a year ago
balajis.com
The Network School We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
a year ago
137
a year ago
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.0% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
5 months ago
36
5 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 March. ... 16-22 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 66.0% (+1.0%) emphasis...
Mazdak
The Dangers of AI "Answers" From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring...
8 months ago
63
8 months ago
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring the lines between fact and fiction.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206 The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
a year ago
142
a year ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge 'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
over a year ago
100
over a year ago
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
The Diff
Amazon Wants AI Models Commoditized. Can They Make it Happen? Plus! Business and Editorial; The Other AI Growth Story; Getting Ahead of the Shift; Activist Shorts
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's...
6 months ago
36
6 months ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
Calculated Risk
Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise...
5 months ago
36
5 months ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise with FHA Performance in the Spotlight • The national delinquency rate edged up 5 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in February; that’s up 19 bps from a year ago but still 32 bps below where...
Musings on Markets
Buy the Dip: The Draw and Dangers of Contrarian Investing! When markets are in free fall, there is a great deal of  advice that is meted out to investors, and...
4 months ago
66
4 months ago
When markets are in free fall, there is a great deal of  advice that is meted out to investors, and one is to just buy the dip, i.e., buy beaten down stocks, in the hope that they will recover, or the entire market, if it is down.  "Buying the dip" falls into a broad group of...