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Calculated Risk
PCE Inflation expected to be Soft in March The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. ...
4 months ago
153
4 months ago
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. The data released so far suggests the PCE inflation will be soft in March. The producer price index (PPI), the PPI excluding food and energy, and the PPI excluding food, energy, and...
balajis.com
The Network School We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
a year ago
137
a year ago
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.4% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 January As expected with the MLK Day holiday, the...
6 months ago
42
6 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 January As expected with the MLK Day holiday, the U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 25 January. ... 119-25 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week...
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
10 months ago
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
a year ago
The Diff
Why do Venture Funds Target a Particular Ownership Level? Plus! The Path of Deployment; The Long Tail; Non-News; Data; Models
3 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #182 Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire,...
a year ago
75
a year ago
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire, Better habits for 2024, Amusing CPA stories, Ben Graham, Charlie Munger, Pernod Ricard
Mazdak
Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
10 months ago
Mazdak
Is Tesla's Full Self-Driving REALLY Safer Than Humans? Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7...
10 months ago
46
10 months ago
Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7 million miles, significantly lower than the U.S.
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly" Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported...
5 months ago
25
5 months ago
Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed...
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
a year ago
126
a year ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI? Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
a year ago
100
a year ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
The Diff
General-Purpose Technologies Revalue Natural Resources Plus! Meme Coins; Fees; Platforms; Opportunistic Offers; Private Accounting Fraud
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales,...
7 months ago
49
7 months ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales, December Personal Income and Outlays and November Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, January 27th ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is...
Mazdak
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
a year ago
38
a year ago
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
over a year ago
167
over a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 1% in April From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April The Dodge Momentum Index...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 0.9% in April to 205.1 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised March reading of 203.1. Over the month, commercial planning grew 3.3%...
Mazdak
AI.com to Chat.com: OpenAI's Domain Domination From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've...
9 months ago
39
9 months ago
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've dropped a huge amount of cash – likely over $15.5 million – to snag the premium domain Chat.com.
Calculated Risk
February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
balajis.com
Network State Conference 2023 Come to Amsterdam on October 30, 2023 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Moneyness
What do you do with memecoins? Apparently you collect them, says the SEC I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and...
6 months ago
50
6 months ago
I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and thus come under the purview of securities regulators like the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Securities law is confusing. But what I do know is that the SEC's latest notion...
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 1 This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts...
a year ago
55
a year ago
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Take the statement, ‘I will only go for a walk if it’s nice outside AND I have free time.’ This can be neatly represented using a truth table. We can…
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week...
8 months ago
46
8 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
6 months ago
28
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 216 thousand from 213 thousand last week. manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a...
Mazdak
Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational...
5 months ago
52
5 months ago
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational assistants—Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Although both are built on large language models, they diverge sharply in design philosophy, technical implementation, safety...
Citation Needed
Meet Trump’s memecoin dinner guests Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises...
3 months ago
41
3 months ago
Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises fresh concerns over foreign influence
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
6 months ago
32
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 0.59%, up from 0.56% November. Freddie's rate is up...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM Services Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
6 months ago
37
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in January, up...
The Diff
The New National Champions Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile;...
7 months ago
64
7 months ago
Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile; Defense
Calculated Risk
January Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. IMPORTANT NOTE: For the household survey, new population controls will be used - and this will boost...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2023 Results Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices,...
over a year ago
44
over a year ago
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices, Clayton Homes, Apple, and share repurchases.
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th...
4 months ago
35
4 months ago
The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 15th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
8 months ago
49
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up from 1.311 million SAAR. Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator...
Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
14
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
The Latest in Smartglasses Tech From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of...
9 months ago
62
9 months ago
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of smartglasses is heating up!
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From...
6 months ago
32
6 months ago
From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s retail sales and industrial production reports, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1...
Calculated Risk
Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
8 months ago
43
8 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Commoncog
Cases from The Heart of Innovation Three cases from The Heart of Innovation, picked to demonstrate the ideas of Deliberate Innovation.
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in February The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
5 months ago
26
5 months ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down from 3.6% YoY in January), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (unchanged from 3.1%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #179 Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
a year ago
104
a year ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
5 months ago
36
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
106
a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
a year ago
141
a year ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
Calculated Risk
January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay...
7 months ago
41
7 months ago
From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January...
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step 2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
a year ago
109
a year ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
123
a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 6.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar...
7 months ago
38
7 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 January. ... 12-18 January 2025 (percentage change from...
Seeking Wisdom
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is...
a year ago
166
a year ago
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is...
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized? Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
9 months ago
60
9 months ago
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.