How to Improve at Sensemaking AI?
What we can learn from the disorienting changes hitting the software industry, and how we can use...
3rd May 2026
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd May 2026
What we can learn from the disorienting changes hitting the software industry, and how we can use that to improve at sensemaking this uncertain new technology.
All the Demand Ideas from The Heart of Innovation, Simply Stated
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
3rd Mar 2026
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Mar 2026
All the ideas of the Heart of Innovation, compressed into one piece.
How to Run Smart Experiments When You Just Don’t Know
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use...
20th Aug 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
20th Aug 2025
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use this approach for your own career.
Should Congress be Allowed to Trade?
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better...
1st May 2025
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st May 2025
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better Management
The Digest #226
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
26th Nov 2024
from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance
26th Nov 2024
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
11th Sep 2024
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Sep 2024
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
Investment Advice Which Stands the Test of Time
There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud).
It advises that you...
5th May 2024
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th May 2024
There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud).
It advises that you keep 1/3rd of your wealth in business, 1/3rd in land, and 1/3rd in gold.
It's genius.
Why?
First, it's simple.
Second, business, and, to a lesser extent, land, (but not gold, usually)...
Issue 90 – Crime szn bro
The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while...
13th Aug 2025
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
13th Aug 2025
The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while celebrating a “deregulatory blitz” tailored for its billionaire benefactors
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
5th Nov 2023
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Nov 2023
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
Too Fake to Tell
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
5th Jun 2023
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Jun 2023
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
10th Apr 2024
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
10th Apr 2024
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
Begging Bowl '25: I'm Looking for Two Readers Willing to Help Me Buy a New Thrift-Store Shirt
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's...
2nd Feb 2025
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Feb 2025
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's the goal of my work.
I admire unvarnished honesty, which is scarce. And like everything else that's increasingly scarce, it behooves us to hoard our stash. In the unvarnished...
Interesting Reading – November 7, 2016
In this series, we suggest worthwhile reading material on a variety of topics, not all of which are...
19th Jun 2026
from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance
19th Jun 2026
In this series, we suggest worthwhile reading material on a variety of topics, not all of which are directly related to investing.
Trump says he has “no idea” who he just pardoned
President Trump reacts to condemnations of his recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao by...
3rd Nov 2025
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Nov 2025
President Trump reacts to condemnations of his recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao by claiming he doesn’t know who he is.
Issue 94 – Backdoor deals
Trump is still corrupt, a core developer warns bitcoin won’t survive an upcoming code change, and...
8th Oct 2025
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
8th Oct 2025
Trump is still corrupt, a core developer warns bitcoin won’t survive an upcoming code change, and crypto lenders are ratcheting up leverage like it’s 2022.
The infrastructure behind ATMs
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
2nd Jan 2023
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Jan 2023
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
18th Sep 2023
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
18th Sep 2023
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
2nd Jan 2025
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Jan 2025
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
13th Jun 2023
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
13th Jun 2023
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
Renovatio monetae
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
8th May 2024
from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance
8th May 2024
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
2nd Oct 2024
from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Oct 2024
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
The Gambling King
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling...
2nd Feb 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Feb 2025
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling king of Macau.
The Trial: How I lost $1 million dollars and 7 years in a lawsuit over Brain Flakes
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL...
25th Nov 2025
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
25th Nov 2025
I thought I was good.
Until I met Sol.
Solomon Rosengarten is a lawyer from Brooklyn. He has an AOL email address. He is not great with the mute button on his phone. He sometimes comes across as incompetent.
But, he is the best damned lawyer I have ever known.
Sol is a killer....
In the Future, Every AI Lab is a Neocloud for Fifteen Minutes
Plus! FDE Crunch; Fable!; Egg Futures?; Becoming IBM; Surtaxes
2nd Jul 2026
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Jul 2026
Plus! FDE Crunch; Fable!; Egg Futures?; Becoming IBM; Surtaxes
How Experts Sensemake
Two decades ago, the US military funded some research into how humans sensemake. This piece is about...
7th Apr 2026
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Apr 2026
Two decades ago, the US military funded some research into how humans sensemake. This piece is about that theory — the best theory of sensemaking that we have — why it matters for expertise, and how you can apply it to make sense of AI.
Economic Tailwinds and Headwinds
After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were...
1st Apr 2025
from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Apr 2025
After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign. See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full.
I...
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
24th Jul 2024
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
24th Jul 2024
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
A Golden Year (2025): Gold's Price Surge - The Signal in the Noise!
I grew up in India in a time where if you had wealth, your investment options were limited. A stock...
6th Nov 2025
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Nov 2025
I grew up in India in a time where if you had wealth, your investment options were limited. A stock market with sparse listings, accompanied by a lack of trust in financial assets, led investors to put their wealth into tangible assets. Real estate was the most common choice but...
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
24th May 2024
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
24th May 2024
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
August ’25: Warm memories
While the global soap opera of the Gaza crisis, Trump/Putin PR, Ukraine misery etc continued, I have...
11th Sep 2025
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Sep 2025
While the global soap opera of the Gaza crisis, Trump/Putin PR, Ukraine misery etc continued, I have created some warm memories in August. I spent a bit of time in the New Forest, at both ends, and the middle. Which included a trip to Mudeford, site of the UK’s most expensive...
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
3rd Nov 2023
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Nov 2023
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
Feb ’26: Before Iran
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for...
16th Mar 2026
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
16th Mar 2026
So, for the avoidance of doubt, the end of the month is the last trading day of the month. Which for February, meant Friday February 27th. The fact that the Israelis and the Americans invaded Iran on February 28th is going to impact March, not February. Which is just as well...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2020; Year in Review
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales...
3rd Jan 2021
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Jan 2021
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales in 2020, mostly through e-commerce channels like Amazon and Walmart.com. This article is going to tell you what that was like and how things were different in 2020 than in 2019.
To...
Data Update 4 for 2026: The Global Perspective!
If you have read my first three data updates in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one,...
2nd Feb 2026
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Feb 2026
If you have read my first three data updates in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one, because you found them long and boring. I won't take issue with you either if you viewed them as too US-focused, because I did spend my second data update, looking at US equities, and my...
You’re Always Selling to a Situation, Not an ICP
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is...
19th Jun 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
19th Jun 2025
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is this idea of selling into situations, not selling to ideal customer profiles. It’s what the pros do anyway.
Deposit franchises as natural hedges
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest...
5th May 2023
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th May 2023
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest rates. How did we get here?
Minimal Impact to Insurers from Icelandic Volcano Eruption
At least for now, most air travel restrictions caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull...
11th Aug 2026
from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Aug 2026
At least for now, most air travel restrictions caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano have been lifted throughout Europe.
How to Become an Asian Tycoon
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half...
1st Apr 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Apr 2025
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half the battle.
Case for indexing
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
5th Feb 2023
from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Feb 2023
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
3rd Jan 2024
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Jan 2024
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
A Few Books and Resources I’ve Found Useful Over the Years
If someone had told me three and a half years ago that there would be something called ChatGPT that...
31st Dec 2025
from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance
31st Dec 2025
If someone had told me three and a half years ago that there would be something called ChatGPT that could answer questions across almost any discipline, I would have called them a lunatic. And yet, here we are. That’s exactly what ChatGPT does today. I can ask it coding...
What Do Brontosauruses Know about Uncoordinated Conspiracies?
Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly)
Let’s pretend for a...
2nd Sep 2024
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Sep 2024
Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly)
Let’s pretend for a moment that brontosauruses are made up, despite them being accepted by the public and scientific community, having ample evidence for their existence, and appearing in museums all...
Make Every Day Count
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
1st Nov 2023
from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Nov 2023
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
14th Jan 2025
from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance
14th Jan 2025
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
Longreads + Open Thread
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
1st Aug 2026
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Aug 2026
Funds, Slop, Schools, Lookism, Automation, Bots, Efficiency, Magnitogorsk
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
2nd Apr 2024
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Apr 2024
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
11th Dec 2024
from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Dec 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
11th Jun 2024
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Jun 2024
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
Popups are the new startups
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
12th Oct 2025
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
12th Oct 2025
Now you can materialize your cloud community into the real world.
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
8th Nov 2024
from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance
8th Nov 2024
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy.
All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
Brainwashing for Confidence
My mom brainwashed me to be confident.
She told me over and over that I was great and destined for...
15th Apr 2026
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
15th Apr 2026
My mom brainwashed me to be confident.
She told me over and over that I was great and destined for great things.
And it worked.
To this day, when I lose or make a mistake, I get mad, but I always wind up where my mother left me:
“You’re great. All you need is more practice.”
And...
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
25th May 2022
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
25th May 2022
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
13th Dec 2023
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
13th Dec 2023
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
July ’24: New UK government
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
5th Aug 2024
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Aug 2024
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
10th Jun 2024
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
10th Jun 2024
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
3rd Mar 2024
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Mar 2024
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
Chinese Labor Isn't Just Cheaper; It’s Better. We Need to Fix That.
A famous newspaper asked me to write an opinion article.
But every time I submitted a draft, they'd...
25th Dec 2025
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
25th Dec 2025
A famous newspaper asked me to write an opinion article.
But every time I submitted a draft, they'd edit it, changing the message of the piece, even though the article was meant to be my opinion.
Most people would have consented to the edits to have the honor of being in the...
What are the Key Properties of Bitcoin?
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are...
11th Jan 2025
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Jan 2025
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are philosophical, some are technical, and some are a blend.
May ’26: Angelic timing
May was an enjoyable month. I kept reasonably busy, as well as doing a bit of travel around the UK....
17th Jun 2026
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
17th Jun 2026
May was an enjoyable month. I kept reasonably busy, as well as doing a bit of travel around the UK. I visited King Charles’ Poundbury for the first time, as well as the south coast and the Cotswolds for a weekend. Meanwhile, the news has been dominated by Trump’s Iran war, and in...
Notes on a non-profit indicted for bank fraud
Well-regarded non-profit runs domestic intelligence agency; distributes intelligence product;...
1st May 2026
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st May 2026
Well-regarded non-profit runs domestic intelligence agency; distributes intelligence product; achieves adoption in financial infrastructure; recruits agents and allies; intervenes against U.S. political fundraising.
Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy!
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and...
7th Apr 2025
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Apr 2025
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and as is my practice, I was checking the score on the Yankee game, when I read the tariff news announcement. Coming after a few days where the market seemed to have found its...
May ’24: UK election called
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
14th Jun 2024
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
14th Jun 2024
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
Issue 81 – Crypto crime is legal
Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
8th Apr 2025
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
8th Apr 2025
Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
The Edge
Thinking with Machines was such a joyful read that I finished it in a single sitting during a...
8th Feb 2026
from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance
8th Feb 2026
Thinking with Machines was such a joyful read that I finished it in a single sitting during a seven-hour flight. Do read it if you want to understand how AI will change the way we live and work. Vasant has lived through every major shift in AI, from expert systems to today’s push...
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
18th Oct 2022
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
18th Oct 2022
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
12th Dec 2022
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
12th Dec 2022
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or not?
One Regulation E, Two Very Different Regimes
How consumer protection in payments works, why it was designed that way, and why it’s being...
7th Jan 2026
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Jan 2026
How consumer protection in payments works, why it was designed that way, and why it’s being contested today.
Tobi Lütke: AI Agents, Better Decisions, and the Future of Work
Shopify founder and CEO Tobi Lütke joins Shane Parrish to discuss AI agents, better decision-making,...
a week ago
from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance
a week ago
Shopify founder and CEO Tobi Lütke joins Shane Parrish to discuss AI agents, better decision-making, and the future of work. He explains how he uses an AI council to examine his hardest decisions and why taste, judgment, and responsibility become more valuable as AI becomes more...
America's $175 Trillion Problem
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
25th Jul 2024
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
25th Jul 2024
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
7th Jun 2024
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Jun 2024
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through the House.
What happens if the US loses reserve currency status?
A reserve currency is the currency that people all over the world prefer to store their savings...
29th Apr 2024
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
29th Apr 2024
A reserve currency is the currency that people all over the world prefer to store their savings in.
Today that currency is the US dollar.
From the Middle East, to Asia, to South America — Whether it's a family that needs to keep some money around just in case or a country, most...
Reflections on the Software Dark Factory Q&A
Some thoughts from watching a demo of a Software Dark Factory.
3rd Jun 2026
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Jun 2026
Some thoughts from watching a demo of a Software Dark Factory.
April 2025 – balmy weather, barmy markets
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything...
24th May 2025
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
24th May 2025
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything particularly notable happened in the portfolio, ignoring the mid month gyrations. It was a lovely month, April. I did a bit of travelling, but the UK had generally lovely spring...
Why Write
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
9th Mar 2023
from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance
9th Mar 2023
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
Why We Shouldn’t “Buy the Dip”
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the...
29th May 2023
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
29th May 2023
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the assumption that asset prices will quickly revert, enabling you to make money.
This article explains why a government-driven culture of “buying the dip” can be damaging to you and...
A Quarter Century of Investing
Lessons learned from twenty-five years of enterprising investing
6th Jan 2025
from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Jan 2025
Lessons learned from twenty-five years of enterprising investing
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
6th Nov 2023
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Nov 2023
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home...
1st Mar 2025
from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Mar 2025
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022...
Network School 2025
Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
2nd Feb 2025
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Feb 2025
Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
Trump claims US banks can't open in Canada—US banks disagree
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained...
4th Feb 2025
from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Feb 2025
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained yesterday on social media that CANADA DOESN'T EVEN ALLOW U.S. BANKS TO OPEN OR DO BUSINESS THERE. And so according to Trump, Canada doubly deserves to be disciplined with...
When Labor is Scarce, Equity is the Mezzanine Tranche
Plus! What Goes Up; Refinancing; Investor Relations; Scaling; Infrastructure
2nd Apr 2026
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Apr 2026
Plus! What Goes Up; Refinancing; Investor Relations; Scaling; Infrastructure
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
2nd Jan 2024
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Jan 2024
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
4th Apr 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Apr 2023
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
6th Sep 2024
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Sep 2024
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
15 mental Abilities & Traits Which Make You Successful But Are Not on an IQ Test
1. Empathy
2. Dexterity
3. Persuasion
4. Musicality
5. Confidence
6. Ambition
7. Grit
8....
2nd Jun 2024
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Jun 2024
1. Empathy
2. Dexterity
3. Persuasion
4. Musicality
5. Confidence
6. Ambition
7. Grit
8. Creativity
9. Flexibility
10. Energy
11. Individualism
12. Willpower
13. Stoicisim
14. Objectivity
15. Allure
Older Articles I’ve Written
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer...
13th Dec 2020
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
13th Dec 2020
In reverse chronological order:
Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer (October 18, 2020)
The Right to a Nonconsensus Opinion (June 9, 2020)
Never Invest in Anything Made of Metal (May 2, 2020)
Simple 3 Step Strategy to Stop the Coronavirus in the...
Greg Abel’s 2026 Letter to Shareholders
Greg Abel's first letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders emphasized the need to keep the...
2nd Mar 2026
from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Mar 2026
Greg Abel's first letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders emphasized the need to keep the company's unique culture.
Deposit insurance maximization as a service
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
5th Apr 2023
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Apr 2023
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore,...
14th Mar 2025
from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance
14th Mar 2025
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore, because it's made in the U.S. by Kellogg's. But I'm still buying Shreddies, which is made in Niagara Falls, Ontario. Even that's a grey area, since Shreddies is owned by Post, a big...
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
7th Aug 2024
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Aug 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
29th Feb 2024
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
29th Feb 2024
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
The business of wallets
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
30th Apr 2024
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
30th Apr 2024
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
6th Feb 2024
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Feb 2024
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
16th Mar 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
16th Mar 2023
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
The Corporate Life Cycle: Managing, Valuation and Investing Implications!
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
20th Aug 2024
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
20th Aug 2024
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
5th Dec 2024
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Dec 2024
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
9th Oct 2024
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
9th Oct 2024
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild
There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome....
2nd Apr 2025
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Apr 2025
There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome.
Okay, players: jokers are wild, but with a twist: the entire deck is jokers. Since everyone at the table will have five Aces, nobody wins.
Welcome to the Trade War Poker...
Feb ’25: The top comes off
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding...
15th Mar 2025
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
15th Mar 2025
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it. From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened What’s going on with me? My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city...
Aug ’23: …
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One...
18th Sep 2023
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
18th Sep 2023
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One was the death of Russian mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin – a larger-than-life modern day warlord, responsible for the ‘little green men’ at the start of the Russian/Ukraine war in 2014,...
Bond Villain
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
4th Jul 2023
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Jul 2023
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
1st May 2024
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st May 2024
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
3rd Mar 2025
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Mar 2025
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
The Network State Conference
Come to Singapore on September 22, 2024 to build technodemocracy.
15th Oct 2023
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
15th Oct 2023
Come to Singapore on September 22, 2024 to build technodemocracy.
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
5th Dec 2023
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Dec 2023
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
How to Become Data Driven
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
6th Feb 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Feb 2023
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
Why did Stu Woo of the Wall Street Journal Follow Me to Singapore?
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
28th Jul 2026
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
28th Jul 2026
Thirty five million people change countries every year. I'm one of them, and so is Stu Woo.
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
21st Apr 2022
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
21st Apr 2022
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
Amazon’s Pricing Policies Promote Inflation
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when...
30th Apr 2023
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
30th Apr 2023
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when 20 states joined the US Department of Justice to sue Microsoft. These cases revolve around whether consumers are harmed by the company’s actions. The case against Amazon focuses...
Who Decides What AI Can Do?
Plus! Diff Jobs; Fun Trades; Insiders; M&A; Two-Tier Rounds; Switching Costs
2nd Mar 2026
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Mar 2026
Plus! Diff Jobs; Fun Trades; Insiders; M&A; Two-Tier Rounds; Switching Costs
The Joys and Tragedies of Naivete
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big...
5th Aug 2026
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Aug 2026
Our naivete is being exploited so ruthlessly and with such abandon that the golden age of the Big Con is consuming itself.
Naivete is interesting because it's so easily confused with confidence, native optimism, youthful enthusiasm, and a host of delusions, including...
The Irresistible Temptations of Centralized Power
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization...
2 weeks ago
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
2 weeks ago
The only "reform" that changes our lives in a fundamentally positive way is radical decentralization via distributing centralized power.
Presidents like to deal with the CEOs of corporate monopolies for self-evident reasons: Rather than engage in the tedious, contentious...
The Network State Book
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
19th Mar 2022
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
19th Mar 2022
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
7th Sep 2024
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Sep 2024
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
2nd Nov 2024
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Nov 2024
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
19th Apr 2023
from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance
19th Apr 2023
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
The Capital Cycle
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
20th Sep 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
20th Sep 2023
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
Hello LLMs!
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
4th Oct 2023
from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Oct 2023
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
Google: Monopolized?
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
1st Dec 2024
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Dec 2024
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
July ’26: An IPO, and France
It feels as if the World Cup was ages ago, already. Yet only a few weeks ago, I was gripped. And for...
9th Aug 2026
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
9th Aug 2026
It feels as if the World Cup was ages ago, already. Yet only a few weeks ago, I was gripped. And for once I thought England had a world-class side…. but hey ho, football hasn’t come home for another four years. I had a road trip through France in July, which was lovely. I am…...
Sep ’25: Gains continue, and I trim
September was a busy month. In the middle of it we saw a disruptive tube strike. I don’t use the...
11th Oct 2025
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Oct 2025
September was a busy month. In the middle of it we saw a disruptive tube strike. I don’t use the tube that much so didn’t expect it to affect me much but two important meetings were postponed, one of which still hasn’t happened, so that event has stayed in my memory. Thank...
Requiem for a bank loan
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse...
16th Jun 2023
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
16th Jun 2023
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse on the banking crisis.
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
6th Nov 2023
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Nov 2023
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
Disney World's New Theme Park: The White House and Congress
A "Pirates of the Caribbean" themed experience is planned, where the taxpayers are repeatedly robbed...
1st Apr 2026
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Apr 2026
A "Pirates of the Caribbean" themed experience is planned, where the taxpayers are repeatedly robbed by a motley crew of miscreants.
In a blockbuster deal, an obscure federal agency has granted Disney the rights to develop the White House and Congress as a new FantasyLand...
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
11th Dec 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Dec 2023
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
The Surprising Distribution Effects of "Buy-Borrow-Die"
Plus! Full-Stack; Scarcity; Sum-of-the-Parts; Nice Problems to Have; Distribution
2nd Jan 2026
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Jan 2026
Plus! Full-Stack; Scarcity; Sum-of-the-Parts; Nice Problems to Have; Distribution
We can have a different web
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
1st May 2024
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st May 2024
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Is China Taking Over US Retail?
Yes.
Let me explain.
Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to...
17th Aug 2021
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
17th Aug 2021
Yes.
Let me explain.
Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to American consumers. In response, the Chinese, after having hollowed out American manufacturing, have moved up the value chain to do the same thing to American wholesale and retail....
Issue 53 – Choose rich
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
13th Mar 2024
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
13th Mar 2024
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
A Few Notes on Moats
Some non-obvious, even surprising things about building competitive moats, including when they might...
11th Feb 2026
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Feb 2026
Some non-obvious, even surprising things about building competitive moats, including when they might not be necessary.
May 2025: market springtime
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to...
8th Jun 2025
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
8th Jun 2025
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to the Isle of Wight, my first visit to a dairy farm in 40+ years, a lovely trip to the Cotswolds, and more. If you can identify any of the locations above feel free to shout… Continue...
The Two Types of Data Analysis
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
3rd Nov 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Nov 2023
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
12th Jul 2024
from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance
12th Jul 2024
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government surveils our transactions,...
Perpetual futures, explained
Crypto’s most popular product offers capital efficiency for professionals, leveraged exposure for...
5th Dec 2025
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Dec 2025
Crypto’s most popular product offers capital efficiency for professionals, leveraged exposure for the masses, rich yields for market makers — and a poorly understood failure mode.
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2nd May 2025
from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd May 2025
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital's Weakest Link!
It is undeniable technology companies have found their most hospitable setting in the United States...
2 weeks ago
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
2 weeks ago
It is undeniable technology companies have found their most hospitable setting in the United States and while there are many reasons for the US dominance of technology, easier access to capital for young businesses has been a key ingredient. Venture capital in the US, in its...
The Situational Awareness Blow-up: The Collateral Damage from Investing Conviction!
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew...
11th Aug 2026
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Aug 2026
Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew little about him other than what I had read about him, more in social media, than in the press - that he was a 25-year-old wunderkind who had started at OpenAI but had left to...
Primary Sources
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible...
11th Feb 2025
from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Feb 2025
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible citizens.
Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels?
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold,...
3rd Dec 2025
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Dec 2025
Stock markets have always rewarded winners with large capitalizations, and with each new threshold, the questions begin anew of whether animal spirits or fundamentals are driving the numbers. A few weeks ago, Nvidia seemed unstoppable as its market capitalization crested $5...
Country Risk: Drivers, Measures and Investment Implications - The 2026 Edition!
I am a creature of habit in my personal and professional life, and in the context of the content...
15th Jul 2026
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
15th Jul 2026
I am a creature of habit in my personal and professional life, and in the context of the content that I post online, there is a ritual that I follow with my data updates. I start the year with my general data update online, and follow up with a series of posts where I examine the...
May ’23: Magic megatech
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
4th Jun 2023
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Jun 2023
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
Jan ’23: Mr Market defuses my tax bombshell
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during...
1st Feb 2023
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Feb 2023
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during the month (not to Davos, no), and enjoy myself in London despite the wintry weather. What you’re paying for in Mayfair these days Market movements in January The markets on the...
The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action
DECIDE
D - Determine the Bottleneck
E - Engage with the subject matter
C - Clear distractions
I -...
16th Mar 2025
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
16th Mar 2025
DECIDE
D - Determine the Bottleneck
E - Engage with the subject matter
C - Clear distractions
I - Implement mental models
D - Decide how to proceed
E - Execute next steps
When you’re traveling or waiting for something to happen, instead of listening to a podcast or scrolling on...
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
31st Jul 2024
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
31st Jul 2024
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism!
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
5th Mar 2025
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Mar 2025
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath!
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what...
2nd Jun 2025
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Jun 2025
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what I thought about the S&P ratings downgrade for the US. Since I stay blissfully unaware of most news stories and things related to markets when I am on the beach, I had to look up...
The Fiat Crisis
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
2nd May 2023
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd May 2023
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
Money laundering and AML compliance
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
10th Feb 2023
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
10th Feb 2023
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
What Kills Cartels?
Plus! Diff Jobs; Strategic Investments; Media Form Factors; Fees; Critical Minerals; Brand Names
2nd Feb 2026
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Feb 2026
Plus! Diff Jobs; Strategic Investments; Media Form Factors; Fees; Critical Minerals; Brand Names
Imperfectly Enforced Rules Create Bad Local Maxima
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
2 weeks ago
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
2 weeks ago
Plus! Ads; Marketing; Pricing; Take Rates; SPVs
My exits – a post mortem
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but...
4th Feb 2025
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Feb 2025
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but not yet Rather like The Investor at Monevator, I firmly believe in the merits of low cost index tracking as an investment strategy, but I also enjoy the thrills / intellectual...
How to Use Power
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
2nd Dec 2024
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Dec 2024
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
11th Jan 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Jan 2023
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
7th Aug 2024
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Aug 2024
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did."
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
11th Jun 2024
from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Jun 2024
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial...
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
11th May 2024
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th May 2024
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
The Digest #227
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
5th Dec 2024
from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Dec 2024
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs, and more ...
Trump to launch branded crypto trading application
New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of...
3rd Jun 2025
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Jun 2025
New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of President Trump to buy his memecoin
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
7th Apr 2024
from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Apr 2024
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
5th Dec 2024
from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Dec 2024
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned.
I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
23rd Oct 2022
from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance
23rd Oct 2022
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
Apr ’26: A record month, house purchase underway
It’s been a beautiful month. I’ve been about a bit, taking in Lincoln, the New Forest, and Oxford as...
4th May 2026
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th May 2026
It’s been a beautiful month. I’ve been about a bit, taking in Lincoln, the New Forest, and Oxford as well as enjoying London town itself. The Iran conflict rumbles on, with the USA and Israel having effectively finished the military engagement. Markets have had a very strong...
We Still Have No Idea Whether Passive Investing is a Meaningful Risk
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC;...
26th Nov 2024
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
26th Nov 2024
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC; Tariff Man
Demystifying financial leverage
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for...
11th Nov 2022
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Nov 2022
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for financial firms.
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all!
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
6th Feb 2025
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Feb 2025
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
Using the Quartz Crisis to Make Sense of Technological Disruption
Also: the quartz crisis isn’t really about quartz at all. A sensemaking exercise for those who want...
3rd Jul 2026
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Jul 2026
Also: the quartz crisis isn’t really about quartz at all. A sensemaking exercise for those who want to get better at making sense of possible AI disruption.
Mar ’26: Iran clobbers markets
In March the rain stopped. We started March with North London already having seen 2x its usual...
12th Apr 2026
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
12th Apr 2026
In March the rain stopped. We started March with North London already having seen 2x its usual rainfall for this point in the year. And thankfully in the middle of March, it stopped. As I write this I have actually needed to start watering the garden, something that felt a very...
Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators?...
3rd Mar 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Mar 2025
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators? We examine the career of one activist investor, to see what that tells us about the Asian tycoons we’ve been studying.
Issue 87 – SO ORDERED
Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders,...
1st Jul 2025
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Jul 2025
Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders, and Mamdani’s mayoral primary win makes billionaires sweat
All It Takes Is All You Got
Your assets are the government's collateral.
29th Mar 2024
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
29th Mar 2024
Your assets are the government's collateral.
Why Healthcare Is in a Death Spiral: Follow the Money
If each of these is not a part of any 'reform,' than all that is being done is pouring money into a...
1st Dec 2025
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Dec 2025
If each of these is not a part of any 'reform,' than all that is being done is pouring money into a monopolizing cartel, just in a slightly different way.
Unbeknownst to those of us with little inside knowledge of the complex financial plumbing of the US healthcare system,...
Revisiting the SpaceX Valuation: A Post-Prospectus Update!
A few weeks ago, I assessed the value of SpaceX ahead of its initial public offering, with the...
4th Jun 2026
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Jun 2026
A few weeks ago, I assessed the value of SpaceX ahead of its initial public offering, with the admission that I was making my estimates with drabs of data, some of it coming from unofficial sources. I also promised to revisit my valuation, when the prospectus came out, and now...
June ’26: Is zero tax worth the hassle?
Monaco I was lucky enough to go to Monaco for the F1 in June. Something I feel quite strongly about...
19th Jul 2026
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
19th Jul 2026
Monaco I was lucky enough to go to Monaco for the F1 in June. Something I feel quite strongly about and have written about before on this blog is how strong the monkey brain wiring is for us all to peg ourselves off the next rung up on the ladder. No matter how high up… Continue...
Credit card debt collection
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being...
11th Aug 2023
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Aug 2023
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being sordid, for complex structural and microeconomic reasons.
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
9th Feb 2024
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
9th Feb 2024
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
1st Sept 2026: An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old...
11th Aug 2026
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Aug 2026
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st September 2026. If you’d like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
When People Outperform Data
People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can...
23rd Nov 2024
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
23rd Nov 2024
People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can make that analysis unnecessary and can even outperform it.
Examples:
1. Amazon did not make money between its 1994 founding through 2002. There was no financial or business...
The 2024 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
8th Jan 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
8th Jan 2025
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
THE SLOW, EXCRUCIATING, DISASTEROUS DUMBING DOWN OF AMERICA
Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average.
This does...
24th Sep 2023
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
24th Sep 2023
Austin is a more pleasant place to live than Dallas because people are smarter on average.
This does not mean there are not smart people in Dallas. There are. What it does mean is the typical Austinite is just a little sharper.
This makes for more pleasant conversations. It’s...
Is the wholesale marketplace Faire right for your e-commerce business or brand?
My company has sold $2.6 million on Faire over the past 4.5 years.
As selling on Amazon has become...
6th Feb 2026
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Feb 2026
My company has sold $2.6 million on Faire over the past 4.5 years.
As selling on Amazon has become tougher and tougher, we are thankful for the growing sales Faire has brought us.
That said, it's a difficult, counterintuitive marketplace to operate on, and one that is getting,...
Dec ’25: 2025 in review
It’s over. The year of 2025, the thirteenth year I’ve been systematically tracking my investment...
19th Jan 2026
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
19th Jan 2026
It’s over. The year of 2025, the thirteenth year I’ve been systematically tracking my investment portfolio every month, is over. One of the reasons I blog is to track my performance with a bit more discipline and rigour than I might manage otherwise. And part of that process is...
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
29th Mar 2024
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
29th Mar 2024
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead?
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk.
As a result of...
2nd May 2025
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd May 2025
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk.
As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury...
Meet Trump’s memecoin dinner guests
Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises...
7th May 2025
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th May 2025
Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises fresh concerns over foreign influence
The Heart of Innovation: Why Most Startups Fail
A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do...
12th May 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
12th May 2025
A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do it.
Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on...
10th Jan 2025
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
10th Jan 2025
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on publicly traded companies and sharing what I find with anyone who is interested. It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and...
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
7th Oct 2024
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Oct 2024
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
Credit cards as a legacy system
Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences...
2nd Dec 2022
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Dec 2022
Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences in the present day. But change is possible.
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
3rd Mar 2025
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Mar 2025
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive.
Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
The Network School
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
16th Aug 2024
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
16th Aug 2024
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
Nov ’24: 3x
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
7th Dec 2024
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Dec 2024
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
The Imitation Game: Defending against AI's Dark Side!
A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was...
5th Aug 2025
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Aug 2025
A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was allegedly starring in, where after offering my views on Palantir's valuation, I was soliciting investors to invest with me (or with an investment entity that had ties to me). I was not...
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
7th Jan 2025
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Jan 2025
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
5th Jul 2024
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Jul 2024
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
Putting the Jobs to be Done Interview to Practice
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
9th Jul 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
9th Jul 2025
Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
8th Oct 2023
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
8th Oct 2023
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
A review of Number Go Up, on crypto shenanigans
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether...
29th Sep 2023
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
29th Sep 2023
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether specifically.
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
2nd May 2024
from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd May 2024
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye...
2nd Aug 2023
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Aug 2023
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye scoff, isn’t that much – London is a fairly dry city – drier than Rome and much drier than Sydney). It has been long trousers weather, for the first time in several years. But at...
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
6th Feb 2025
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Feb 2025
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
OpenAI Launches GPT-5
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
7th Aug 2025
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Aug 2025
On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
Apple has a new CEO. Now comes the hard part.
September is here, and there’s actually quite a bit going on.
2 weeks ago
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
2 weeks ago
September is here, and there’s actually quite a bit going on.
The Inevitable Drift Down from "Can't Lose" Owning Stocks to "Can't Win"
Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years,...
3rd Nov 2025
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Nov 2025
Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years, how many of us would take this advice?
Only those who experienced the heady euphoria of the late 1990s dot-com bubble in tech stocks know what the shift from "can't lose"...
How to Handle Disruptive Change
As a business, how do you deal with disruption — technological or otherwise? Some patterns from a...
3 days ago
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
3 days ago
As a business, how do you deal with disruption — technological or otherwise? Some patterns from a collection of case studies.
The Market for Contrarian Talent Doesn't Clear
Plus! Bootstrapping a Consumer-Facing Negawatt Market; Real Estate; Aggregators; Training Data;...
1st May 2026
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st May 2026
Plus! Bootstrapping a Consumer-Facing Negawatt Market; Real Estate; Aggregators; Training Data; Supply Chains
It’s a treasure trove of health insights!
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
21st Oct 2024
from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance
21st Oct 2024
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
Mar ’23: Harvesting tax losses
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in...
7th Apr 2023
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Apr 2023
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in the French Alps (finally) having great conditions – sadly too late for me to enjoy. Further north, it’s been a month of big change in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon, the...
Feb ’23: taking profits
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling...
14th Mar 2023
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
14th Mar 2023
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling up again, post covid, though Mondays and Fridays remain subdued to put it mildly. Market movements in February In the markets, February started strongly, but then something...
The Fiacracy; A Mental Model for Modern Government
This article will explain the following:
1. What is a Fiacracy
2. How do Fiacracies NOT work
3. How...
10th Aug 2024
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
10th Aug 2024
This article will explain the following:
1. What is a Fiacracy
2. How do Fiacracies NOT work
3. How Fiacracies work
4. Are Fiacracies sustainable
5. Why Fiacracies matter
1. What is a fiacracy?
It’s government by fiat (money). The driving mechanism by which it works is not...
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
11th Jan 2024
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Jan 2024
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
5th Sep 2022
from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Sep 2022
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025!
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the...
3rd May 2025
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd May 2025
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. The month was off to a bad start, and tariffs remained the...
The Network School Fellowship
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
18th Apr 2025
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
18th Apr 2025
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
Elon Musk and the right’s war on Wikipedia
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part...
2nd Jan 2025
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Jan 2025
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part of an intensifying campaign against free and open access information.
Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational...
4th Mar 2025
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Mar 2025
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational assistants—Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Although both are built on large language models, they diverge sharply in design philosophy, technical implementation, safety...
Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use...
2nd Apr 2025
from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Apr 2025
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use decentralized databases like Ethereum and Tron to run their platforms. Secondly, and more important for the purposes of this article, they grant access to almost anyone, no questions...
The Only Thing That Matters
Business skill, as the ability to cut a messy business problem down to a single, most important...
3rd Nov 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Nov 2025
Business skill, as the ability to cut a messy business problem down to a single, most important thing.
Evaluating Information: Find the Signal in the Noise
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what...
3rd Aug 2022
from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Aug 2022
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what matters from what doesn’t. The good news is that you can train your brain to evaluate the quality of information. Not only can you quickly determine if someone knows what they are...
Caroline Ellison: A woman with agency or a helpless pawn?
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX...
2nd Oct 2024
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Oct 2024
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX collapse?
Markets are calmer. The bigger questions aren't.
A quick run through the stories that actually matter today — rates, trade, cancer research, robots,...
20th Aug 2026
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
20th Aug 2026
A quick run through the stories that actually matter today — rates, trade, cancer research, robots, and a few things that could affect how business gets done.
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
8th Jul 2023
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
8th Jul 2023
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
Banking in very uncertain times
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we...
14th Mar 2023
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
14th Mar 2023
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we may not get about it.
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles!
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon...
1st Oct 2024
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Oct 2024
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
13th Oct 2023
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
13th Oct 2023
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
Focus on the process, not the outcome
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
12th Aug 2024
from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance
12th Aug 2024
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
Apple’s 2025 Product Unveiling: What’s New and What Actually Matters
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple...
9th Sep 2025
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
9th Sep 2025
Apple’s latest keynote delivered a sweeping set of updates across AirPods, iPhones, and the Apple Watch lineup.
Pretense, Staging, Expediency: the "Solutions" That Implode the Whole Shebang
Slapdash quick fixes and policies share one characteristic: they eventually implode the whole...
1st Jan 2026
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Jan 2026
Slapdash quick fixes and policies share one characteristic: they eventually implode the whole shebang.
We all know how this works: the business is failing and the divorce papers have been filed, but the optics are ugly, so the couple waltzes in, all smiles and lovey-dovey,...
AI Agents vs. SaaS: Is This the Beginning of a Structural Reset or Another Tech Overreaction?
Public software companies just had one of their worst weeks in years—and the market reaction was...
9th Feb 2026
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
9th Feb 2026
Public software companies just had one of their worst weeks in years—and the market reaction was swift, brutal, and emotional.
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
2nd Sep 2023
from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Sep 2023
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
June 2025: Show times
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite...
11th Jul 2025
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Jul 2025
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite cities. But when he launches 30kt bombs on Iran, it is very hard to avoid talking about him. In the context of what Trump’s been up to, the welfare reform screw-ups by the Labour...
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
9th Dec 2024
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
9th Dec 2024
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Guys what is wrong with ACATS
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
24th May 2024
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
24th May 2024
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
June ’23: The hottest ever
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or...
15th Jul 2023
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
15th Jul 2023
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or (definitely) read the last of him but having him out of Westminster is at least a bit safer than him inside. Closer to (my Coastal Folly) home, there has been a sad story in...
What do LLMs Want?
Plus! Governance; Implementation Risk; Jailbreaking; In-Kind Deals; Revalued Inputs
1st Dec 2025
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Dec 2025
Plus! Governance; Implementation Risk; Jailbreaking; In-Kind Deals; Revalued Inputs
Meta's Fake AI Profiles, the TikTok Ban, Telegram Updates, and Microsoft's $80 Billion AI Investment...
Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
4th Jan 2025
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Jan 2025
Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
12th Nov 2024
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
12th Nov 2024
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
15th Jan 2025
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
15th Jan 2025
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
An Ode to Restraint: Lessons from the Tim Cook Legacy
Through time, we have glorified conquerors and empire builders in politics, civic life and business,...
6th May 2026
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th May 2026
Through time, we have glorified conquerors and empire builders in politics, civic life and business, from Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan to the tech titans of today. That is no surprise, since these individuals have oversized personas and often change the course of history,...
Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
1st Jan 2025
from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Jan 2025
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final...
5th May 2025
from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th May 2025
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in Q1 2025
3rd Apr 2025
from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Apr 2025
Thoughts on the books I read in Q1 2025
Stablecoins – a digital version of Swiss bearer savings books
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and...
9th Aug 2024
from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance
9th Aug 2024
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and open an account without showing any ID. The bank would then issue you something called a bearer savings book, otherwise known as inhabersparheften or livrets d'épargne au porteur....
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway?
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
3rd Oct 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Oct 2023
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2nd Nov 2024
from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Nov 2024
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
To Bitcoin or not to Bitcoin? A Corporate Cash Question!
In this post, I will bring together two disparate and very different topics that I have written...
18th Jul 2025
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
18th Jul 2025
In this post, I will bring together two disparate and very different topics that I have written about in the past. The first is the role that cash holdings play in a business, an extension of the dividend policy question, with an examination of why businesses often should not pay...
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
5th Mar 2025
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Mar 2025
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
A “Fairly Highly Valued” Market: A Fed Chair Opines on Stocks, but should we listen?
In December 1996, Alan Greenspan used the words "irrational exuberance" to describe the stock market...
6th Oct 2025
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Oct 2025
In December 1996, Alan Greenspan used the words "irrational exuberance" to describe the stock market at the time, and those words not only became the title of Robert Shiller's cautionary book on market bubbles, but also the beginnings of the belief that central bankers had the...
Business Reality Without Frameworks
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
21st Oct 2024
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
21st Oct 2024
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
3rd May 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd May 2023
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
2nd Jul 2024
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Jul 2024
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
Trillions Flow into AI: The New Infrastructure Arms Race
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
26th Jun 2025
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
26th Jun 2025
🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
The Creation of a Skilled Tycoon
What it looks like when an Asian tycoon gets good at the game of business.
8th Dec 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
8th Dec 2025
What it looks like when an Asian tycoon gets good at the game of business.
July ’25: New high watermark
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important...
16th Aug 2025
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
16th Aug 2025
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important event in the UK was the Labour government’s failure to enact its intended welfare reforms. This leaves the government a) unable to control spending b) unable to nudge the economy...
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
7th Jun 2024
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Jun 2024
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
19th May 2024
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
19th May 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
Markets in power
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
30th Sep 2022
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
30th Sep 2022
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
Letter to a Young Person Worrying About AI
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s...
20th Oct 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
20th Oct 2025
It is a common misperception that you must be able to predict the future to do well. But it’s possible to act without prediction, even in the face of AI. This is how.
Buffett Completes Succession Plan
Warren Buffett has completed Berkshire's succession plan as he steps down as Chairman.
yesterday
from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance
yesterday
Warren Buffett has completed Berkshire's succession plan as he steps down as Chairman.
Look Out Below
As I often note, making Plans B and C is free.
The stock market is always looking past "bad...
7th Oct 2025
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Oct 2025
As I often note, making Plans B and C is free.
The stock market is always looking past "bad news" to front-run "good news."
Once it became clear that the Titanic was indeed going to sink, the stock market would rally on the prospect of sharp growth in lifeboat shares. In...
Stay the course
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
5th Mar 2024
from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th Mar 2024
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
The Best Summary of Atlas Shrugged
A brief, no-fluff, summary of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. If you want to learn how capitalist...
9th Jul 2026
from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance
9th Jul 2026
A brief, no-fluff, summary of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. If you want to learn how capitalist countries become socialist, this book will help you. Let’s dive in. Atlas Shrugged: The Simple Version The world depends on a relatively small number of people who build, invent, and...
Working Out Will Change Your Life
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
8th Aug 2023
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
8th Aug 2023
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
6th May 2023
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th May 2023
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
Routers, Apps, AGI
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes;...
20th Oct 2025
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
20th Oct 2025
Plus! Diff Jobs; Peripheral Bets; Fragmentation and Industry Maturity; Deepfakes as Pull Quotes; Benchmarks; Platforms
The Power of Expectations: Nvidia's Earnings and the Market Reaction!
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled...
6th Sep 2024
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Sep 2024
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled for after the market closed. That call, at first sight, contained exceptionally good news, with revenues and earnings coming in at stratospheric levels, and above expectations,...
Fraud Investigation is Believing Your Lying Eyes
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are...
6th Feb 2026
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Feb 2026
The financial industry has paid tens of billions of dollars in tuition on fraud detection. Here are some observations for investigators with badges, press cards, or GoPros.
Longreads + Open Thread
Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
1st Feb 2025
from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Feb 2025
Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
Mar ’24: A towering influence
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
1st Apr 2024
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Apr 2024
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
One Definition of Wisdom
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
14th Feb 2024
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
14th Feb 2024
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
AI is polytheistic, not monotheistic
And ten more thoughts on AI.
3rd Aug 2025
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
3rd Aug 2025
And ten more thoughts on AI.
Why We're Helpless When Things Break Down
Only then do we realize that by optimizing profit and efficiency, we've also optimized systemic...
1st May 2026
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st May 2026
Only then do we realize that by optimizing profit and efficiency, we've also optimized systemic failure.
In my essay
AI, Money, Human Nature and the Problem with Problems, I refer to boundary conditions but didn't offer a thorough explanation of the role this concept plays...
The 2023 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
4th Jan 2024
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Jan 2024
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
It’s Time to Build… Assets?
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser...
28th Mar 2026
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
28th Mar 2026
One of the main reasons for the decline in goods and services in the United States, and to a lesser extent, the world, is the financialization of our economies by excessive money printing.
Let's break that down into simpler language.
The quality of the things and services you buy...
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
1st Dec 2023
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Dec 2023
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
11th Dec 2024
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
11th Dec 2024
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
Announcing the Commoncog Case Library Public Beta
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate...
24th Aug 2022
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
24th Aug 2022
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate business expertise. Find out more.
Seeing like a Bank
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
7th Nov 2023
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Nov 2023
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
2nd Nov 2022
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Nov 2022
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
16th Aug 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
16th Aug 2023
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
The Joy of Small Markets
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
2nd Sep 2025
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Sep 2025
If you want to get rich, the irony is that small markets are often better than large ones.
Working title (insurance)
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
30th Jun 2024
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
30th Jun 2024
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
All Property Becomes Cryptography
For 99%+ of what's valuable, for every financial asset and capital asset, we will secure it onchain.
28th Jul 2025
from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance
28th Jul 2025
For 99%+ of what's valuable, for every financial asset and capital asset, we will secure it onchain.
Risk and AI: It's Tricky
The possibility that AI will end up unleashing waves of 'Anti-Progress'--malicious uses,...
1st Jul 2026
from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Jul 2026
The possibility that AI will end up unleashing waves of 'Anti-Progress'--malicious uses, untrustworthy output and uncontrollable floods of slop--also doesn't occur to those confined in the current belief construct.
A funny thing happens on the way to understanding risk: we...
Greg Abel’s Unique Challenge
Greg Abel takes over as Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, a job that...
31st Dec 2025
from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance
31st Dec 2025
Greg Abel takes over as Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, a job that will involve at least three major challenges.
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
10th Feb 2024
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
10th Feb 2024
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
Open Banking and payments competition
Why the banks really hate fintechs that allow businesses to learn your account number easily.
13th Aug 2025
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
13th Aug 2025
Why the banks really hate fintechs that allow businesses to learn your account number easily.
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors!
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
7th Nov 2024
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
7th Nov 2024
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
Dell's Capital Expertise
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
1st Jul 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
1st Jul 2023
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
Data Update 1 for 2026: The Push and Pull of Data!
In my musings on valuation, I have long described myself as more of a number cruncher than a...
9th Jan 2026
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
9th Jan 2026
In my musings on valuation, I have long described myself as more of a number cruncher than a storyteller, but it is because I love numbers for their own sake, rather than a fondness for abstract mathematics. It is that love for numbers that has led me at the beginning of each...
Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the...
13th Oct 2024
from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance
13th Oct 2024
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the Solent. I made it to the Labour party conference in Liverpool, which was fascinating albeit wet. I am apparently firmly in the tax-raising sights of the Government, but I wasn’t the...
Google’s New AI Summaries in Discover: The Next Blow to Publishers?
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly...
15th Jul 2025
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
15th Jul 2025
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly shifting the ground beneath us.
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
14th Apr 2025
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
14th Apr 2025
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
AI Scenarios: From Doomsday Destruction to Do-Nothing Bots!
When Chat GPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three...
4th Mar 2026
from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Mar 2026
When Chat GPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three years since, AI has taken on an outsized role not just in markets, but also in our lives. For much of the time, the AI story has been told by its advocates and its salespeople, and...
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
2nd Apr 2024
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
2nd Apr 2024
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
Heureka
A “heureka” is a surprisingly powerful yet simple solution to a complex optimization problem, which...
20th Sep 2025
from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance
20th Sep 2025
A “heureka” is a surprisingly powerful yet simple solution to a complex optimization problem, which is theoretically inferior to more complicated solutions, but is, in practice, optimal.
Example:
“I’m a 22 year old Phi Beta Kappa alumnus of University of Iowa and I have this idea...
OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all.
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of...
5th May 2025
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
5th May 2025
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to restructure as a for-profit company.
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
6th Jun 2023
from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Jun 2023
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
6th Mar 2024
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
6th Mar 2024
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
4th Feb 2025
from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance
4th Feb 2025
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
30th Jan 2024
from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance
30th Jan 2024
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
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