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Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 1% in April From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April The Dodge Momentum Index...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 0.9% in April to 205.1 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised March reading of 203.1. Over the month, commercial planning grew 3.3%...
oftwominds-Charles...
It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that I've maintained them. It was 20 years ago today--well, actually, yesterday--that I launched this blog into the swirling rapids of the Web. As we know, time flies when you're...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.3% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 7...
The Diff
Expect More Politically Inscrutable Assassinations Plus! Coasian Bargains; Movies; Currency; OpenAI; Tariffs
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $140.5 Billion in March The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $140.5 billion in March, up $17.3 billion from $123.2 billion in February, revised. ...
Mazdak
OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all. In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to restructure as a for-profit company.
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I'm still not yet...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Terminal Rot in Corporate America Corporate America took advantage of the Covid shortages and fiscal largesse to profiteer on a scale...
3 months ago
115
3 months ago
Corporate America took advantage of the Covid shortages and fiscal largesse to profiteer on a scale criminals could only dream of. One of humanity's most pernicious traits is the ease with which we habituate to conditions over time that we would have rejected out of hand if...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow • Improved inventory levels are providing more options and a softer price dynamic for homeowners shopping this spring There is much...
The Diff
Peak Berkshire (In a Good Way) Plus! Diff Jobs; Decoupling; Who Trains the Model-Trainers; Cash Cycles; AI and ARR; Gating
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 51.6% in April (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.6%, up from 50.8% last month. The...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.6%, up from 50.8% last month. The employment index increased to 49.0%, from 46.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 51.6% April 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Margin Call, Math, BNPL, AI and the Environment, Bonds, Favors, Tariffs, College
3 months ago
Musings on Markets
The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025! I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the...
3 months ago
40
3 months ago
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. The month was off to a bad start, and tariffs remained the...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. ----- Monday, May 5th...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. ----- Monday, May 5th ----- 10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. ----- Tuesday, May 6th ----- 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the...
oftwominds-Charles...
25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead? Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. As a result of...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury...
The Diff
Storing Up Untainted Data Plus! Niches; Creator Economy; AI and Filters; Trade Wars; Peak Gaming?
3 months ago
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Diamond Anniversary Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway sixty years ago. It is possible that major...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway sixty years ago. It is possible that major announcements will be made at the annual meeting.
Commoncog
Business with Tariffs; Business as Usual Every Asian Tycoon we’ve examined got their start in a world with tariffs. They could thrive and...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
Every Asian Tycoon we’ve examined got their start in a world with tariffs. They could thrive and adapt under severe uncertainty. So can we. Here’s how to calibrate for that world.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Potential Winners and Losers in Reshoring Supply Chains Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock and on back order, with no estimate of a future delivery date." The ultimate winners and losers in reshoring supply chains to North America have yet to be determined, and...
The Diff
Pathologically High-Margin Businesses Plus! Change My View; Capital Structure; Artificial Sycophancy; Elasticity; Internalizing...
3 months ago
oftwominds-Charles...
The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative control" can't obscure the facts or the banquet of consequences that these realities have set. Not everyone in America gained ground as a result of the rampant...
The Diff
When Step One is to Light Money on Fire and Measure How Fast it Burns Plus! Groupchats and Norms; Venture; Made in America; Real Estate Elasticity; Lagging Investments
3 months ago
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ending our dependence on SWIFT It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a choice morsel by a much larger predator: our former ally the United States of America. In President Trump's very own words, he wants to use "economic force" to join Canada and the...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Movies, Scams, Decentralization, Reading, AI, Offline, Trade
3 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 82 – E-moluments As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the Trump administration continues to dismantle those same rules while he pumps his personal memecoin with promises of private access
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 8.1% Year-over-year due to Easter Timing From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 April As expected due to the Easter and Passover...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 April As expected due to the Easter and Passover holidays, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 April. ... 13-19 April 2025 (percentage change from...
The Diff
Do Chatbots Cannibalize Search? Or is it the Other Way Around? Plus! Crypto; Cheating; Crypto, Redux; Guidance; Ghost Apps
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Sales in March (4.02 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 2.4% below the February 2024 sales rate. This was the 2nd...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Wile E. Coyote Recession So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration run out of rope? We all know there's a time lag between the moment Wile E. Coyote runs off the cliff at full speed and the moment he...
Calculated Risk
U.S. Births Increased in 2024 From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2024. The NCHS...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2024. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2024 was 3,622,673, up 1% from 2023. The general fertility rate was 54.6 births per 1,000 females ages 15–44, an...
The Diff
Venture and Media Plus! Cluely; Big Tech Sees Like a State; Distribution; Student Loans and Demand Shocks; Rollups
4 months ago
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4 months ago
Plus! Cluely; Big Tech Sees Like a State; Distribution; Student Loans and Demand Shocks; Rollups
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.36% in March From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March The...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.38% of servicers’...
oftwominds-Charles...
What's "Normal" in a Hyper-Normalized World? Now that the entire economy depends on these hyper-normalized speculative bubbles for its "growth"...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
Now that the entire economy depends on these hyper-normalized speculative bubbles for its "growth" and "wealth," there is a profound fear of a future based not on artifice but on the real world. Humans are quick to habituate to current conditions, i.e. consider them normal....
The Diff
Thinking-Things-Through Privilege Plus! Trade Negotiations; M&A; AI and IP; Consolidation; Sourcing
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March;...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales,...
Musings on Markets
Buy the Dip: The Draw and Dangers of Contrarian Investing! When markets are in free fall, there is a great deal of  advice that is meted out to investors, and...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
When markets are in free fall, there is a great deal of  advice that is meted out to investors, and one is to just buy the dip, i.e., buy beaten down stocks, in the hope that they will recover, or the entire market, if it is down.  "Buying the dip" falls into a broad group of...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 20 and DOW futures are down 128 (fair value). WTI futures at $64.68 per barrel and Brent at $67.96 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $84, and Brent was at $88 - so WTI oil prices...
Commoncog
Vanguard as a Demand-Side Mystery We study the rise of Vanguard, the index fund management company, as a case study of how customer...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
We study the rise of Vanguard, the index fund management company, as a case study of how customer demand is not always about pain.
Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel up 1% YoY This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of April 16, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Air travel is up about 1.3% YoY.
FIRE v London
A stupid decision to sell my rental property I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth around £1m, right in the heart of London – near the middle of the map below. I used to live in it, I travel past it regularly, I know its neighbourhood well. The Modern Flat has...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts at 1.324 million Annual Rate in March At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing and Demographics Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different 3rd Look at Local Housing...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Moon, Welch, Robinhood, Heterodoxy, Bots, Liquidity, Trade, Google
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, April...
4 months ago
36
4 months ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, April 21st ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 22nd ----- 10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. ----- Wednesday, April 23rdh...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Family Home: From Shelter to Asset to Liability The deflation of asset bubbles and higher costs are foreseeable, but the magnitude of each is...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
The deflation of asset bubbles and higher costs are foreseeable, but the magnitude of each is unpredictable. With the rise of financialized asset bubbles as the source of our "growth," family home went from shelter to speculative asset. This transition accelerated as...
balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing and Demographics Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt:...
4 months ago
25
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt: I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010. The arrow points to the large cohort moving...
The Diff
Does VIX Have Fundamentals? Plus! Customer Service; Latency; Corp Dev.; Scavengers; Broken Windows
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to Jan and Feb core control retail sales. [Apr 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)....
Citation Needed
Trump’s newest grift: Building a cryptocurrency empire while destroying its regulators Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is...
4 months ago
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4 months ago
Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is using presidential power to dismantle the regulators who could stop it