Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
2 days ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
3 days ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Moneyness
Thoughts on the Tornado Cash defence and what happens when everyone adopts it
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance,...
6 days ago
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance, has has to pay multiple fines. Western Union was famously busted in 2017. Meanwhile, Cash App is being probed as we speak for inadequate anti-money laundering controls.
In the...
Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
a week ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
a week ago
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
Citation Needed
AI isn't useless. But is it worth it?
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
a week ago
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market?
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
a week ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
a week ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
Commoncog
The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart...
a week ago
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart that doesn't seem to get talked about.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
a week ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
Citation Needed
Issue 55 – Halving a bad time
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed...
a week ago
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed fraud and Uniswap got a Wells notice.
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
a week ago
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined ratio.
Moneyness
Why I'm in favor of financial illiteracy
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former...
a week ago
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former chair of FDIC, Sheila Bair, who sees such classes as ways to stop future FTX-style disasters.
The model of finance I've been using for many years is the fairly dismal dark forest...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
2 weeks ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
2 weeks ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
2 weeks ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
2 weeks ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
The Rational Walk
The Iliad
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
2 weeks ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
2 weeks ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of...
2 weeks ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of Anne Frank, Endurance, Crime and Punishment, and the Iliad.
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
3 weeks ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #196
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on...
3 weeks ago
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on Disney's proxy war, Lessons from Paul Graham, Dunbar's number
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
3 weeks ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
3 weeks ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
3 weeks ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
Moneyness
The effects of Russian sanctions as portrayed in YouTube videos
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was...
3 weeks ago
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was filled to the brim with food, Carlson claims that western sanctions placed on Russia aren't having an effect. "We've been told sanctions on Russia have had a devastating effect on its
...
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
3 weeks ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
3 weeks ago
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got
Your assets are the government's collateral.
3 weeks ago
Your assets are the government's collateral.
Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
3 weeks ago
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious crime."
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
4 weeks ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
4 weeks ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
4 weeks ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
a month ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
Moneyness
How PayPal can use stablecoins to avoid AML requirements and make big profits
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based...
a month ago
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based payments platforms that are built using crypto database technology.
Financial institutions are always looking for loopholes to game the system. Typically this has meant avoiding...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
a month ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
a month ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
Moneyness
Are the sanctions on Russia working?
I very much enjoy economist Robin Brooks's tweets, especially his charts showing how sanctions...
a month ago
I very much enjoy economist Robin Brooks's tweets, especially his charts showing how sanctions imposed on Russia have affected regional trade patterns. While direct trade between Europe and Russia has collapsed thanks to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, the...
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
a month ago
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #193
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect...
a month ago
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect on the brain, Race and cardiovascular disease, Inflation's effect on insurance pricing
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
a month ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
a month ago
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
a month ago
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
a month ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
The Rational Walk
The Digest #192
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS,...
a month ago
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS, The bear case for China, Chris Davis, Michael Mauboussin
Moneyness
It's time to get rid of "crypto"
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category...
a month ago
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category back in 2011 when there was only one type of crypto thingy – bitcoin. But it's ceased to be a meaningful term and, if anything, it causes a regression in understanding.
Source:...
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
a month ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
a month ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
Moneyness
Why my favorite coinage is Byzantine coinage
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold...
a month ago
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold coin that maintained its weight and purity for over 600 years, which is quite remarkable for a coin. The solidus was exported all over the world, including to Europe, which lacked...
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
a month ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
a month ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #191
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
a month ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
Citation Needed
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be...
a month ago
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be proliferating on the web? The number one thing you can do is learn to edit, and I will walk you through how to get started in only 30 minutes.
The Rational Walk
Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend?
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well...
2 months ago
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well served by Warren Buffett's reluctance to send out dividend checks.
Moneyness
The first round of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia is working
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing...
2 months ago
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing payments for a narrow range of products that are on a so-called "green list," reports Ragip Soylu. This broad debanking of Russia by Turkey is part of the fallout from President...
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
2 months ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
The Rational Walk
The Digest #190
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
2 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
2 months ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
2 months ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
Musings on Markets
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers...
2 months ago
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers on companies that I should value next. While I don't have the time or the bandwidth to value all of the suggested companies, a reader from Iceland, a couple of weeks ago, made a...
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
2 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
Citation Needed
Issue 51 – It's quiet... too quiet
It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
2 months ago
It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
2 months ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
2 months ago
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #189
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty...
2 months ago
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty hours in the Vision Pro, Fairfax Financial, Parks America, Howard Marks, Danny Myer
Mazdak
Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner...
2 months ago
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner faces unique financial considerations. One critical choice arises early on: to pay yourself a salary or take dividends? Understanding the pros and cons of each path empowers you to...
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
2 months ago
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually want.
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
2 months ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
2 months ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
2 months ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
2 months ago
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain solutionists.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
2 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
2 months ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
2 months ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #187
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
2 months ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
Moneyness
What does the recent ruling on the Emergencies Act mean for your banking rights?
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy...
2 months ago
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy protest in 2022 contravened the protestor's rights. In this post I want to provide my reading of this particular ruling and what is at stake for Canadians and their bank...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business?
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
2 months ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
2 months ago
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
balajis.com
The Men's Party
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
2 months ago
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation!
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023,...
2 months ago
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and...
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
2 months ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
The Rational Walk
Endurance
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
2 months ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
2 months ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #186
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
3 months ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2024: Interest Rates in 2023 - A Rule-breaking Year!
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the...
3 months ago
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. In this post, I look at interest rates,...
Moneyness
Do bitcoin ETFs conflict with bitcoin's original ethos?
Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's...
3 months ago
Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's original ethos. On the contrary, I think it's a nice snug fit.
It would be a misunderstanding of bitcoin's history to assume that it was the idealism of cypherpunk-ism that gave birth to...
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
3 months ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
3 months ago
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
Mazdak
How Long (and Why) You Must Keep Every Business Record 🇨🇦
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable...
3 months ago
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable records. This isn't just about staying organized; it's about complying with the law, managing your finances, and protecting yourself from audits. But with so many rules and regulations,...
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x"
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
3 months ago
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
3 months ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #185
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at...
3 months ago
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at Alibaba's IPO, Chris Davis, Outsider CEOs, Shareholder activists, Oprah
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - The Low Expectations Game!
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation...
3 months ago
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of...
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
3 months ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket?
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
3 months ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
3 months ago
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
3 months ago
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
Musings on Markets
The School Bell Rings: Time for Class!
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting...
3 months ago
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting in a couple of weeks, I would like to invite you, if you are interested, to come along for the ride. I know! I know! Most of you are not enrolled at NYU, paying nosebleed prices,...
The Rational Walk
The Thirty Second Mind
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
3 months ago
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦)
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
3 months ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
3 months ago
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
3 months ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US)
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
3 months ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
Citation Needed
Issue 48 – Bitcoin has "no chance" of going to the moon
Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
3 months ago
Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
3 months ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Moneyness
It's time to impose Iran-calibre sanctions on Russia
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long...
3 months ago
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long list of sanctions that the G7 coalition has placed on Russia in response to its attack on Ukraine are surprisingly light compared to the fewer but far more-draconian sanctions...
Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
3 months ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable...
3 months ago
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable margin was for a firm operating in the retail business. In pursuit of an answer to that question, I used company-specific data from Value Line, one of the earliest entrants into the...
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
3 months ago
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
3 months ago
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #183
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing,...
3 months ago
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing, Rivian, AI's morality, AI bubble?, How James Longstreet defied the South after the war
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
3 months ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
3 months ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
3 months ago
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
3 months ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 2
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for...
3 months ago
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I concluded the previous post by explaining how Attention works. You can download the Excel sheet and Python code that explains how Attention from here and...
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
3 months ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
3 months ago
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #182
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire,...
4 months ago
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire, Better habits for 2024, Amusing CPA stories, Ben Graham, Charlie Munger, Pernod Ricard
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
4 months ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
4 months ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
4 months ago
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
4 months ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
4 months ago
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is complicated.
Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins?
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
4 months ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
Moneyness
Are flatcoins a good idea?
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has...
4 months ago
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has been around for a while, but it got a wider airing when it popped up in a Coinbase marketing piece from earlier this year. Now, arch-crypto hater Nouriel Roubini has undergone a...
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
4 months ago
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
4 months ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #181
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò...
4 months ago
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò Machiavelli, internal vs. external goals, Safe withdrawal rates, Protecting your time
Mazdak
Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the...
4 months ago
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the table! This dramatic pivot throws a spotlight on the tightening grip of global regulators on tech mergers, leaving investors and industry players to wonder:
The Rational Walk
New Articles Moving to Newsletter
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new...
4 months ago
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new articles will be posted on my Substack at newsletter.rationalwalk.com.
Moneyness
The long arm of OFAC and its reach into the Ethereum network
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving...
4 months ago
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving Tornado Cash, a piece of blockchain infrastructure that was sanctioned by the U.S. government last year for providing mixing services to North Korea.
Over the last two weeks...
Citation Needed
Substackers Against Nazis
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
4 months ago
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024?
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
4 months ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
4 months ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
4 months ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
4 months ago
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
Mazdak
Apple & Google Face Mounting Threats to $500 Billion Market
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is...
4 months ago
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is facing a growing number of threats. A recent court ruling against Google and new regulations in Europe and Asia could force the two tech giants to open up their app stores to more...
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
4 months ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Mazdak
Teens Obsessed with YouTube and TikTok: New Survey Reveals Usage Trends
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew...
4 months ago
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew Research Center. This highlights the immense popularity of these video-streaming platforms among younger generations. Here are the key takeaways from the survey:
The Rational Walk
The Digest #180
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
4 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
Musings on Markets
The Difference Makers: Key Person(s) Valuation
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses,...
4 months ago
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses, especially those built around personal services (a doctor or plumber’s practice), it is part of the valuation process, where the key person is valued or at least priced and...
Mazdak
What is QSBS?
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul...
4 months ago
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul into your company, and you want to see it thrive. But taxes can eat into your profits, leaving you feeling frustrated and discouraged. That's where QSBS (Qualified Small Business...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy
Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
4 months ago
Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI?
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
4 months ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
The Rational Walk
The Digest #179
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
4 months ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
4 months ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
4 months ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Moneyness
Why do sanctioned entities use Tether?
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to...
4 months ago
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to participate in the global payments ecosystem.
In this post I want to explore in more depth how Tether is being used to dodge sanctions. I'm going to avoid drawing on the Hamas...
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
4 months ago
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
Mazdak
AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai...
4 months ago
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, it's more important than ever to understand the complex relationship between AI and climate change. Why it matters: AI could become one of the biggest energy guzzlers on...
The Rational Walk
Soldier On
In 1955, Charlie Munger's nine year old son died of leukemia, a disease with a nearly 100% death...
4 months ago
In 1955, Charlie Munger's nine year old son died of leukemia, a disease with a nearly 100% death rate at the time. How did he overcome his grief and endure in life?
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
4 months ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
4 months ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Moneyness
Even crypto mixing deserves a threshold
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically...
4 months ago
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically record and report our transactions to law enforcement. The logic behind this is that by giving up our personal data, we get more security, albeit at the cost of 1) losing our privacy,...
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
4 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #178
Berkshire countersues Pilot's founders, Meta targeting teens, Title Insurance, Moats & capital...
4 months ago
Berkshire countersues Pilot's founders, Meta targeting teens, Title Insurance, Moats & capital allocation, CAVA's origin, VISA's history, Business lessons from Tom Murphy
Mazdak
Finance News Roundup - Wednesday, 29th November
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire...
4 months ago
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a close associate of Warren Buffett, has passed away at the age of 97. Munger was known for his wit, wisdom, and contrarian investment style.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #177
Remembering Charlie Munger
4 months ago
Remembering Charlie Munger
Mazdak
Google and the Canadian Government Reach a Deal on Online News Act
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three...
4 months ago
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three weeks before the act is scheduled to come into effect. The deal will see Google continue to show Canadian news on its platforms in exchange for annual payments to Canadian news...
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023)
A life well lived
4 months ago
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
4 months ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
Moneyness
Are central banks too reliant on SWIFT for domestic payments?
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally...
4 months ago
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally important to our lives, but we never see them in action. All of a nations' electronic payments are ultimately completed, or settled, on these systems. If they stop working, our...
Commoncog
Marvel Studios’s Origin Story
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of...
4 months ago
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of superb capital expertise in action.
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
4 months ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
Citation Needed
Effective obfuscation
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical...
5 months ago
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical veneer to the industry's same old impulses.
Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
5 months ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
Mazdak
Subscription Overload: The Rise of Recurring Revenue
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches...
5 months ago
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches onto the subscription business model. This is because businesses can make more money up-front and over time by selling subscriptions and building loyalty. They can also mine...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
5 months ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
5 months ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
Mazdak
Sam Altman Returns to OpenAI as CEO
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman has been reinstated as CEO of OpenAI, just days after being...
5 months ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman has been reinstated as CEO of OpenAI, just days after being fired by the company's board. The move comes after a whirlwind few days that saw Altman's supporters rally to his side, with many threatening to quit if he was not brought back.
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
5 months ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
Commoncog
Strong at Capital, Bad at Everything Else
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but...
5 months ago
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but weak in just about everything else.
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
5 months ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
Citation Needed
Issue 44 – Four
The Justice Department's interest in Binance isn't just "FUD" anymore.
5 months ago
The Justice Department's interest in Binance isn't just "FUD" anymore.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
5 months ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
5 months ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Moneyness
Is it legal to mix cash in a jar?
Chris Blec asks the following question:
Source: Twitter
Chris's premise is that it is "not...
5 months ago
Chris Blec asks the following question:
Source: Twitter
Chris's premise is that it is "not illegal" for him to get together with a bunch of strangers to mix cash. But that's not quite right. It can be legal. It can also be illegal. To determine which it is, we need to...
Mazdak
Canadian Mortgage Debt Growth Slows to Two-Decade Low, But Remains Elevated
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to...
5 months ago
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to data from the Bank of Canada (BoC). However, mortgage debt growth remains historically high, despite the recent slowdown. The BoC's latest data shows that outstanding mortgage...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #175
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount...
5 months ago
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount rates, Evolving moats, Jay Gould, Garry Tan, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Steve Ells
Moneyness
Kraken v Kraken, or how to protect the public from crypto exchange failures
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is –...
5 months ago
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is – there is still no regulated crypto venue in the U.S.! You'd think some lessons would have been learnt.
To best protect the public from the Sam Bankman-Frieds of the world, what the...
Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
5 months ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
Mazdak
Unlocking Tax Savings and Building Wealth for Your Children: A Smart Strategy for Business Owners
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and...
5 months ago
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and maximize profits. But have you considered a strategy that not only benefits your business but also sets your children up for financial success? The concept of hiring your children...
The Rational Walk
Superinvestor Portfolio Changes — Q3 2023
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General,...
5 months ago
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General, Markel, and Semper Augustus.
Moneyness
In praise of anti-money laundering thresholds
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money...
5 months ago
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money laundering thresholds.
In the first story, the New York Times shows how regular folks are increasingly losing their bank accounts because their bank perceives them to be engaging in...
Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
5 months ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
5 months ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
5 months ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
5 months ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
balajis.com
Only Newsom Can Go To China
If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
5 months ago
If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
Mazdak
How to Use Pain to Fuel Your Personal Evolution
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain...
5 months ago
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain can be a powerful tool for personal evolution? When you're feeling pain, it's a sign that you need to find a solution. This is an opportunity to learn and grow. If you can develop a...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #174
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions,...
5 months ago
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions, The AI Gold Rush, 100th anniversary of Hitler's beer hall putsch, The Federalist Papers
Citation Needed
Issue 43 – Laser eyes
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
5 months ago
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 Results — Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on...
5 months ago
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on results in Q3 2023 as well as a longer term view.
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
5 months ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
Moneyness
How would a cash-only central bank conduct monetary policy?
What role do changes in the supply of banknotes play in contributing to a central bank's ability to...
5 months ago
What role do changes in the supply of banknotes play in contributing to a central bank's ability to carry out monetary policy? Put differently, to what degree does "printing," or creating new physical currency and issuing it into the economy, contribute to generating a central...
Citation Needed
New York Times: Crypto's fragile foundations
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency...
5 months ago
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency industry that can lead to death spirals like the one at FTX.
Commoncog
High Roller: Lessons from America's Richest Banker
Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's...
5 months ago
Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's richest banker. A guest post by Frederik Gieschen.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #173
Berkshire's Q3 earnings, Munger on retailing, SBF's strange philosophy, Rob Henderson on reading,...
5 months ago
Berkshire's Q3 earnings, Munger on retailing, SBF's strange philosophy, Rob Henderson on reading, Howard Marks on a full return world, Morgan Housel on writing that sells, Cities on Mars
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
5 months ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
5 months ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
5 months ago
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
5 months ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
5 months ago
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
5 months ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 — Overview
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
5 months ago
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 1
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts...
5 months ago
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Take the statement, ‘I will only go for a walk if it’s nice outside AND I have free time.’ This can be neatly represented using a truth table. We can…
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
5 months ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
5 months ago
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #172
Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of...
5 months ago
Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of competence, Damodaran on Tesla, Thompson on AI, Charlie Munger, Chris Davis
Musings on Markets
Tesla in November 2023 : Story twists and turns, with value consequences!
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be...
5 months ago
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be misleading, since Tesla never leaves the news. Some of that attention comes from the company's products and innovations, but much of it comes from having Elon Musk as a CEO, a man...
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
5 months ago
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
The Rational Walk
By diverse means we arrive at the same end
Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
5 months ago
Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
6 months ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
FIRE v London
Feeling broke
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
6 months ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
The Rational Walk
American Prometheus
The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a...
6 months ago
The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a cautionary tale of human nature that holds timeless lessons.
Seeking Wisdom
From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my...
6 months ago
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Let’s train a model to predict heart disease using sleep and exercise data....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #169
Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the...
6 months ago
Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the human brain, Interviews of Nassim Taleb, Jensen Huang, John and Patrick Collison, and more ...
Moneyness
Crypto adoption in America
Source: America Loves Crypto
You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto...
6 months ago
Source: America Loves Crypto
You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto marketing campaign, sponsored by Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange. In an attempt to promote the voting power of crypto owners, the website makes the claim that 52 million...
Commoncog
Building a Valuable Business? It's How You Spend It That Matters
The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business...
6 months ago
The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business performance.
The Rational Walk
Musical Chairs at Dollar General
Investors were euphoric when Dollar General brought back its former CEO less than a year after his...
6 months ago
Investors were euphoric when Dollar General brought back its former CEO less than a year after his retirement. A sober look at the situation reveals significant concerns.
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns – Part 2
I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on...
6 months ago
I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on answers. Through these posts, I’ll build a toy GPT from scratch using Python and unpack everything that goes inside the LLMs, including the math it uses. This is my third post on my...
balajis.com
The Network State Conference
Come to Amsterdam on October 30 to build the parallel establishment.
6 months ago
Come to Amsterdam on October 30 to build the parallel establishment.
Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
6 months ago
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
The Rational Walk
Initial Public Offerings
A company that is in the process of selling shares to the public for the first time must navigate a...
6 months ago
A company that is in the process of selling shares to the public for the first time must navigate a minefield of competing interests.
Moneyness
Inflation as a tax
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order...
6 months ago
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order to fight his wars. This provided Henry with the financial firepower to annex the city of Boulogne from the French in 1544, albeit at the price of England experiencing one of its...
The Rational Walk
Thoughts on Israel’s 9/11
On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast...
6 months ago
On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast majority of whom were civilians.
Musings on Markets
Good Intentions, Perverse Outcomes: The Impact of Impact Investing!
I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a...
6 months ago
I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a gravy train for a whole host of players, including fund managers, consultants and academics. In response, I have been told that the problem is not with the idea of ESG, but in its...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #168
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's...
6 months ago
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's IPO, Costco's clothing, Todd Combs interview, Equifax, and more ...
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
6 months ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns
How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous...
6 months ago
How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous philosopher and mathematician, was lying in his bed, eyes fixed on a fly on the ceiling. As he pondered how to accurately describe the fly’s position, Descartes visualized the...
The Rational Walk
Costco’s Director Compensation
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a...
6 months ago
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a potential model for Berkshire Hathaway in the future.
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
6 months ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Musings on Markets
Invisible, yet Invaluable: Valuing Intangibles in the Birkenstock IPO!
A few days ago, I valued Instacart ahead of its initial public offering, and noted that the...
6 months ago
A few days ago, I valued Instacart ahead of its initial public offering, and noted that the reception that the stock gets will be a good barometer of where risk capital stands in the market, right now. After a buzzy open, when the stock jumped from its offering price of $30 a...
Moneyness
Top 13 blog posts
I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now...
6 months ago
I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now forgotten (by myself included), but some were pretty popular at the time, and a few still get a steady stream of readers. Someone recently asked me for a list of my top ranked posts...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #167
TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds,...
6 months ago
TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds, Interviews of Marc Andreessen and Shane Parrish, David Senra's review of Jimmy Buffett's autobiography
Musings on Markets
Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion!
As we enter the last quarter of 2023, it has been a roller coaster of a year. We started the year...
6 months ago
As we enter the last quarter of 2023, it has been a roller coaster of a year. We started the year with significant uncertainty about whether the surge in inflation seen in 2022 would persist as well as about whether the economy was headed into a recession. In the first half of...
Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs!
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
6 months ago
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom...
6 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom Holland and The Path Between the Seas by David McCullough.
Moneyness
How to debase the coinage in order to pay for wars
Henry VIII, after Hans Holbein the Younger
It's fun to imagine traveling back in time and engaging...
6 months ago
Henry VIII, after Hans Holbein the Younger
It's fun to imagine traveling back in time and engaging with the then-prevailing technologies. Would you be able to ride a boneshaker or use a counting board? It's probably harder than you think: kids today can't even use a 1980s rotary...
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway?
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
6 months ago
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
The Rational Walk
Three Lessons
A few life lessons based on observations over a half century.
6 months ago
A few life lessons based on observations over a half century.
Bits about Money
A review of Number Go Up, on crypto shenanigans
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether...
6 months ago
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether specifically.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #166
The media landscape, Dollar General's meltdown, The written word, Damodaran on Instacart, The human...
7 months ago
The media landscape, Dollar General's meltdown, The written word, Damodaran on Instacart, The human condition, Herb Kelleher, Merger arbitrage, and more.
Mazdak
Multifamily Real Estate Investment
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential...
7 months ago
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential properties with three or more units. It can be a good investment for a number of reasons, including: Potential for high cash flow. Multifamily properties can generate a steady stream of...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
7 months ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
Moneyness
Thoughts on Privacy Pools and the law
Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My...
7 months ago
Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My comments are on the legal side, and less so the technical side, although the two aren't mutually exclusive.
I've already written a bunch of times about Tornado Cash on this blog....
Commoncog
Charlie Munger’s Supply Demand Curve Puzzle
What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high...
7 months ago
What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high returns.
Mazdak
5 best investments during high interest rates
Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When...
7 months ago
Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds declines, and stocks can become more volatile. However, there are still a number of investments that can perform well in a high interest...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 2
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto...
7 months ago
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto insurance business as well as nearly bankrupting GEICO.
Moneyness
Coinbase: "What if we call them rewards instead of interest payments?"
Here's a question for you: which U.S. financial institutions are legally permitted to pay interest...
7 months ago
Here's a question for you: which U.S. financial institutions are legally permitted to pay interest to retail customers?
We can get an answer by canvassing the range of entities currently offering interest-paying dollar accounts to U.S. retail customers. It pretty much boils...
The Rational Walk
There’s Always a Reason
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an...
7 months ago
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an important option for customers chronically short on cash.
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
7 months ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
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