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Commoncog
How to Run Smart Experiments When You Just Don’t Know How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use...
3 days ago
15
3 days ago
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use this approach for your own career.
Citation Needed
As he builds US power, Justin Sun fights to control his story A crypto billionaire who once feared arrest in the US is now a Trump business adviser and White...
4 days ago
8
4 days ago
A crypto billionaire who once feared arrest in the US is now a Trump business adviser and White House guest. His lawsuit against Bloomberg reveals what he doesn't want Americans to know about his crypto fortune.
FIRE v London
July ’25: New high watermark There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important...
a week ago
13
a week ago
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important event in the UK was the Labour government’s failure to enact its intended welfare reforms. This leaves the government a) unable to control spending b) unable to nudge the economy...
Bits about Money
Open Banking and payments competition Why the banks really hate fintechs that allow businesses to learn your account number easily.
a week ago
Citation Needed
Issue 90 – Crime szn bro The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while...
a week ago
15
a week ago
The Trump administration cracks down on software to limit surveillance of crypto transactions, while celebrating a “deregulatory blitz” tailored for its billionaire benefactors
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT-5 On August 7, 2025, OpenAI officially released GPT-5, its latest flagship model, to the world.
2 weeks ago
Musings on Markets
The Imitation Game: Defending against AI's Dark Side! A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was...
2 weeks ago
20
2 weeks ago
A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was allegedly starring in, where after offering my views on Palantir's valuation, I was soliciting investors to invest with me (or with an investment entity that had ties to me). I was not...
balajis.com
AI is polytheistic, not monotheistic And ten more thoughts on AI.
2 weeks ago
Musings on Markets
Country Risk 2025: The Story behind the Numbers! At the start of July, I updated my estimates of equity risk premiums for countries, in an semiannual...
3 weeks ago
20
3 weeks ago
At the start of July, I updated my estimates of equity risk premiums for countries, in an semiannual ritual that goes back almost three decades. As with some of my other data updates, I have mixed feelings about publishing these numbers. On the one hand, I have no qualms about...
Citation Needed
Curate your own newspaper with RSS Escape newsletter inbox chaos and algorithmic surveillance by building your own...
3 weeks ago
18
3 weeks ago
Escape newsletter inbox chaos and algorithmic surveillance by building your own enshittification-proof newspaper from the writers you already read
Commoncog
A Vaccine for Anthropomorphism of AI How to resist thinking of large language models as friends. Or sentient things. Or intelligences you...
3 weeks ago
19
3 weeks ago
How to resist thinking of large language models as friends. Or sentient things. Or intelligences you have to treat like God.
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal Accused of Incorrect Accounting Daily Journal has been accused of incorrectly accounting for software development costs by an...
3 weeks ago
18
3 weeks ago
Daily Journal has been accused of incorrectly accounting for software development costs by an activist investor seeking a consulting contract.
Citation Needed
The Tornado Cash case: When politics sabotage a prosecution The Trump administration’s regulatory whiplash has left prosecutors scrambling with misattributed...
3 weeks ago
16
3 weeks ago
The Trump administration’s regulatory whiplash has left prosecutors scrambling with misattributed chat messages and questionable victim testimony
balajis.com
All Property Becomes Cryptography For 99%+ of what's valuable, for every financial asset and capital asset, we will secure it onchain.
3 weeks ago
Citation Needed
Issue 89 – Crypto wins in Washington with midnight calls, chocolate bars, and a $141 million threat Trump stands to profit from a $2 billion bitcoin bet as the crypto industry pushes through bills...
a month ago
Commoncog
The Tatas: When Virtue Works Why are the Tatas so much less corrupt than their contemporaries? How is their conglomerate still...
a month ago
25
a month ago
Why are the Tatas so much less corrupt than their contemporaries? How is their conglomerate still intact after five generations? The answer to an Asian conglomerate mystery, and Part 13 of the Asian conglomerate series.
Mazdak
Google’s New AI Summaries in Discover: The Next Blow to Publishers? If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly...
a month ago
27
a month ago
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly shifting the ground beneath us.
Commoncog
Announcing Speedrunning the Idea Maze A live course, limited to 30 people. Applications close 21st July.
a month ago
FIRE v London
June 2025: Show times I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite...
a month ago
31
a month ago
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite cities. But when he launches 30kt bombs on Iran, it is very hard to avoid talking about him. In the context of what Trump’s been up to, the welfare reform screw-ups by the Labour...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2025, including The Snowball, The...
a month ago
29
a month ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2025, including The Snowball, The Haywire Heart, Plato's Republic, and the King James Bible
Commoncog
Putting the Jobs to be Done Interview to Practice Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
a month ago
Citation Needed
Issue 87 – SO ORDERED Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders,...
a month ago
26
a month ago
Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders, and Mamdani’s mayoral primary win makes billionaires sweat
Commoncog
Tycoon Succession Most Asian conglomerates are family-controlled businesses. Succession in any family business is a...
a month ago
27
a month ago
Most Asian conglomerates are family-controlled businesses. Succession in any family business is a tricky thing. We look at a few cases as part of the Asian Conglomerate Series.
Mazdak
Trillions Flow into AI: The New Infrastructure Arms Race 🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
a month ago
FIRE v London
Swapping a rental property for a share portfolio Having sold my London rental flat, what was I to do next? I’ve paid the £20k+ transaction fees. I...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
Having sold my London rental flat, what was I to do next? I’ve paid the £20k+ transaction fees. I have paid off the mortgage. I set aside the amount to pay my Capital Gains Tax, a liability which needs to be settled within [60] days. I moved some of the remaining equity into...
Commoncog
You’re Always Selling to a Situation, Not an ICP One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is this idea of selling into situations, not selling to ideal customer profiles. It’s what the pros do anyway.
Musings on Markets
The (Uncertain) Payoff from Alternative Investments: Many a slip between the cup and the lip? It is true that most investing lessons are directed at those who invest only in stocks and bonds,...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
It is true that most investing lessons are directed at those who invest only in stocks and bonds, and mostly with long-only strategies. It is also true that in the process, we are ignoring vast swaths of the investment universe, from other asset classes (real estate,...
Citation Needed
It matters. I care. Giving up on the idea that truth matters is not just cynicism, it’s surrender.
2 months ago
FIRE v London
May 2025: market springtime I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to...
2 months ago
41
2 months ago
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to the Isle of Wight, my first visit to a dairy farm in 40+ years, a lovely trip to the Cotswolds, and more. If you can identify any of the locations above feel free to shout… Continue...
Citation Needed
Issue 85 – All the President’s tokens As Trump’s web of crypto projects gets tangled up in itself, a regulator warns of “regulatory Jenga”...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
As Trump’s web of crypto projects gets tangled up in itself, a regulator warns of “regulatory Jenga” in the crypto sector that echoes the 2008 financial crisis
Musings on Markets
Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath! I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what...
2 months ago
31
2 months ago
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what I thought about the S&P ratings downgrade for the US. Since I stay blissfully unaware of most news stories and things related to markets when I am on the beach, I had to look up...
Citation Needed
OpenAI featured chatbot is pushing extreme surgeries to “subhuman” men OpenAI's featured chatbot recommends $200,000 in surgeries while promoting incel ideology
2 months ago
Commoncog
The Origin of the Tatas How one of the oldest business empires on the subcontinent got started, and how one man’s values...
2 months ago
39
2 months ago
How one of the oldest business empires on the subcontinent got started, and how one man’s values laid the foundation for five generations of business conduct.
FIRE v London
April 2025 – balmy weather, barmy markets Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything...
3 months ago
38
3 months ago
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything particularly notable happened in the portfolio, ignoring the mid month gyrations. It was a lovely month, April. I did a bit of travelling, but the UK had generally lovely spring...
Mazdak
Claude 4 Has Arrived: Anthropic’s AI Agents Raise the Bar for Autonomous Intelligence Anthropic has officially launched the Claude 4 model family, and with it, the frontier of artificial...
3 months ago
Commoncog
Cases from The Heart of Innovation Three cases from The Heart of Innovation, picked to demonstrate the ideas of Deliberate Innovation.
3 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 84 – Rogue overseas support agents Coinbase’s substantial data breach coincides with a convenient terms of service update, while the...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
Coinbase’s substantial data breach coincides with a convenient terms of service update, while the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill regains momentum in the Senate
The Rational Walk
Greg Abel Steps into the Spotlight Greg Abel will step into the spotlight at the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with Warren...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
Greg Abel will step into the spotlight at the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with Warren Buffett sitting in the audience.
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches Codex: The Future of AI-Powered Software Engineering OpenAI has officially launched Codex, its most advanced AI coding agent to date, within ChatGPT....
3 months ago
49
3 months ago
OpenAI has officially launched Codex, its most advanced AI coding agent to date, within ChatGPT. Designed for developers, teams, and enterprises, Codex represents a major step forward in agentic AI systems purpose-built for software engineering.
Citation Needed
Issue 83 – Trump’s crypto-backed plan to auction off access to the White House Trump’s crypto conflicts continue to multiply as Democratic legislators demand ethics inquiries and...
3 months ago
Commoncog
The Heart of Innovation: Why Most Startups Fail A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do...
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Current State of the Housing Market At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
3 months ago
33
3 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April Asking Rents Mostly...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Data, Invisible Software, The Post, AI, Cheating, Control, Star Wars
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of May 11, 2025 The key reports this week are April CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, May 12th...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
The key reports this week are April CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, May 12th ----- 2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for April. ----- Tuesday, May 13th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for...
The Diff
Who Else But Google? Plus! Tariff Plays; Good Trades; Capital Structure; Moderation; Debt and the Dollar
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in April From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent shifts in U.S. policies on trade and immigration have introduced volatility in financial markets and heightened uncertainty for firms. The ultimate outcomes...
oftwominds-Charles...
Tariffs Are Not Enough The tariff sledgehammer has a role, but it's a limited one. There's an inherent tension in...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
The tariff sledgehammer has a role, but it's a limited one. There's an inherent tension in State-Corporate Capitalism. Proponents of the free market hold that any state Industrial Policy will fail because the State cannot pick the winners and losers as effectively as The...
The Diff
Why do Venture Funds Target a Particular Ownership Level? Plus! The Path of Deployment; The Long Tail; Non-News; Data; Models
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.8% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 May. ... 27 April through 3 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 65.8%...
Citation Needed
Meet Trump’s memecoin dinner guests Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises fresh concerns over foreign influence