Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt: I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010. The arrow points to the large cohort moving into the key renter age group in 2010. It was fifteen years ago that we started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive. The drivers were 1) very low new supply, and 2) strong demand (favorable demographics, and people moving from owning to renting). ... What are the implications for the next decade?

From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to Jan and Feb core control retail sales. [Apr 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 17th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.2 percent on April 17, unchanged from April 16 after rounding. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.1 percent. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts of first-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.9 percent. [Apr 17th estimate]

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2025

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels.   Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 31.2% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending April 12, 2025 • Active inventory climbed 31.2% from a year ago • ew listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 12.8% • The median list price was flat year over year Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.  Inventory was up year-over-year for the 75th consecutive week.   New listings have increased but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels. Median list prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March A brief excerpt: First, from Reuters: D.R. Horton cuts 2025 revenue forecast on weak demand for homes U.S. homebuilder D.R. Horton lowered its full-year revenue forecast and missed second-quarter profit and revenue estimates on Thursday due to weak demand for homes. … It sees about 85,000 to 87,000 transaction closings from homebuilding operations, down from its earlier forecast of 90,000 to 92,000 homes. I discussed weaker demand and higher costs last month in Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March Total starts were up 1.9% in March compared to March 2024. Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 1.5% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 5.6% YTD and multi-family up 9.0% YTD. There is much more in the article.