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Calculated Risk
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends;...
16 hours ago
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16 hours ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends; Wildfire Delinquencies Emerge • Delinquencies fell 24 basis points (bps) to 3.47% in January; that’s 10 bps higher than last year, but 33 bps below pre-pandemic levels Foreclosure...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050 By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the...
8 hours ago
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2% From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14....
10 hours ago
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10 hours ago
From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar...
The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
14 hours ago
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth...
14 hours ago
2
14 hours ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Tax Benefits of Self-Employment Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth...
2 days ago
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2 days ago
Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth understanding if you're exploring self-employment. It's tax preparation time, the secular equivalent of crawling around the temple on cobblestones littered with broken glass....
The Diff
Don't Try to Build Another Berkshire Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody;...
2 days ago
4
2 days ago
Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody; Unwinding a Bubble
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Record Inbound Traffic for January This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some...
2 days ago
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2 days ago
This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or...
Mazdak
Microsoft Unveils Majorana 1: A Quantum Leap Towards the Future After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum...
3 days ago
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3 days ago
After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum processor—Majorana 1. This breakthrough has the potential to redefine the future of computing, promising industrial-scale problem-solving and scientific discovery at an unprecedented level.
Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With...
3 days ago
3
3 days ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although progress could remain...
Citation Needed
Issue 77 – Whenever presidents get involved, if they become angry, you don't want to be there A major crypto scandal tarnishes the reputation of Solana bigwigs, crypto influencers, and Argentine...
3 days ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 days ago
3
3 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Housing Starts for January. The consensus is for 1.394 million SAAR, down from 1.499 million SAAR. Architecture Billings Index for January (a leading...
Musings on Markets
Return on Equity, Earnings Yield and Market Efficiency: Back to Basics! While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by...
4 days ago
4
4 days ago
While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by two events. The first was the response that I received to my last data update, where I looked at the profitability of businesses, and specifically at how a comparison of accounting...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Problem With Money Isn't Money The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core...
4 days ago
5
4 days ago
The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core economic problems is to return to sound money via either the gold standard, in which gold backs all currency, or by substituting bitcoin for gold, i.e. bitcoin becomes the coin of the...
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage...
4 days ago
3
4 days ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers’ portfolio...
The Diff
The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
4 days ago
Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns" in February The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42,...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42, down from 47 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost...
Moneyness
Ending the penny won't lead to more nickels Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable,...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable, costing 3.69 cents to produce each one. In response, the lobbyists that earn big profits from the ongoing existence of the penny have come out in full force with dubious arguments for...
Commoncog
Outcome Orientation as a Cure for Information Overload A simple, effective — though not easy! — technique for solving information overload. Written from...
4 days ago
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The...
5 days ago
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5 days ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of -1.0, up from -12.6. NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 47, unchanged from 47 the previous month. Any number below 50...
FIRE v London
Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the...
a week ago
8
a week ago
Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the so-called “Pakistani grooming gangs” scandal here in the UK, with Elon Musk weighing in. At the time it seemed remarkable but one month later, as I write this, I am pleased to say I can’t...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Q4 NY Fed...
a week ago
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a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Part 2:...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Education, Auto Theft, Optimizers, AI, Energy, Financial Engineering, Deep Research
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February...
a week ago
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a week ago
The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February 17th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Washington's Birthday. ----- Tuesday, February 18th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey...
The Rational Walk
Staying the Course It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the...
a week ago
6
a week ago
It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the long run.
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From...
a week ago
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a week ago
From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s retail sales and industrial production reports, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1...
oftwominds-Charles...
Automation Institutionalizes Mediocrity Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as...
a week ago
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a week ago
Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as algorithmically-driven under-competence and mediocrity are now the norm. When deployed by monopolies / cartels, automation institutionalizes mediocrity, and soon everyone forgets...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
a week ago
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a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in...
The Diff
How Many Layers in the AI Stack? Plus! Scale; Outsourcing Capital; Closed-Loop Generative AI; The Perks of Market Power; Labor...
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in January From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
a week ago
5
a week ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.5 percent in January after moving up 1.0 percent in December. In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following...
Citation Needed
The crypto industry’s debanking smokescreen Cryptocurrency companies have co-opted legitimate concerns about banking discrimination to fight...
a week ago
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a week ago
Cryptocurrency companies have co-opted legitimate concerns about banking discrimination to fight regulation — and Congress is buying it
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in January On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and...
a week ago
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a week ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from January 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Not-So-Strange Paradox of American Power and Dysfunction Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining...
a week ago
5
a week ago
Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining rods to what happens next. A recent essay explores the paradox of American power: global reach amidst civic decline: The Strange Triumph of a Broken America: Why Power...
Calculated Risk
NY Fed Q4 Report: Household Debt Increased; High auto loan delinquency rates From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates...
a week ago
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a week ago
From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The...
The Diff
Uber's AV Bet on a Narrow Range of Competitors' ROI Outcomes Plus! The Grid, and Cross-Subsidies; Pricing AI; Owning the Login; Liquidity Premium; Supply Chains
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 213,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a week ago
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a week ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Mazdak
Apple’s Next Big Bet? The Future of Robotics and the Smart Home For decades, Apple has been known for revolutionizing industries.
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate...
a week ago
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a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about...
oftwominds-Charles...
The One True Test of AI Intelligence The point of this thought experiment is to reveal the true nature of our relationship with AI: we...
a week ago
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a week ago
The point of this thought experiment is to reveal the true nature of our relationship with AI: we only love it as a mindless slave that makes us rich. From the earliest days of artificial intelligence, what test proves AI equivalence with human intelligence has been the...
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
a week ago
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a week ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (down from 3.7% YoY in December), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2025: The End Game in Business! I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students...
a week ago
2
a week ago
I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students have been lulled into a false sense of complacency about what's coming, since I have not used a single metric or number in my class yet. In fact, we have spent almost four sessions...
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.2% YoY as...
a week ago
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a week ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.2% YoY as of January 2025, down from 4.4% YoY in December. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
Mazdak
YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025? YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a week ago
6
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up...
The Rational Walk
Primary Sources Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible...
a week ago
9
a week ago
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible citizens.
Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a...
a week ago
6
a week ago
The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. We expect a 0.34% increase in January...
The Diff
Globalization, Regulatory Arbitrage, and Reshoring-on-Paper Plus! Antitrust Enforcement; Full-Stack; Decentralizing; Spoiler Bids; Platform Management
a week ago
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
a week ago
5
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Moneyness
The end of El Salvador's bitcoin payments experiment Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use...
a week ago
3
a week ago
Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use bitcoin for payments. Last month, four years later, it notched another record: it became the first country to rescind bitcoin's status as required tender. This backtracking was the...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New...
a week ago
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a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New Week Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 2024. Top tier 30yr fixed rates...
Mazdak
Elon Musk’s $97.4 Billion Bid for OpenAI Elon Musk has once again made headlines with a massive $97.4 billion bid to take control of OpenAI,...
a week ago
11
a week ago
Elon Musk has once again made headlines with a massive $97.4 billion bid to take control of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT.
Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's...
a week ago
5
a week ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
oftwominds-Charles...
Corporations as Modern-Day Warlords Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an...
a week ago
3
a week ago
Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an apology to all those whose blood pressure will skyrocket upon reading this thought experiment. As we all know, science--the real thing, not "science"--advances via informed...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a week ago
6
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale! I’m watching...
The Diff
AI Assistants Will Be Great (Especially for the Biggest Companies) Plus! Short Selling; Crypto Treasury Gresham's Law; The Joy of Higher Rates; Labor Substitution;...
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a week ago
8
a week ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. Inventory is now up 1.3% from the bottom four weeks ago. Inventory has been little changed over...
Commoncog
The Story of Samsung How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s...
a week ago
12
a week ago
How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s economy.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
a week ago
7
a week ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 18 and DOW futures are up 88 (fair value). WTI futures at $71.00 per barrel and Brent at $74.66 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread VC, Personal Finance, Careers, Hedge Funds, Hiring, Investing, Coase, Gates
a week ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question! In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest...
a week ago
2
a week ago
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. I spend most of my time in the far less rarefied air of corporate finance and valuation, where businesses try to decide...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 The key reports this week are January CPI and Retail sales. ----- Monday, February 10th ----- No...
a week ago
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a week ago
The key reports this week are January CPI and Retail sales. ----- Monday, February 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, February 11th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January. Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual...
The Diff
De-Risking The 11-Figure Bets Plus! Thematic ETFs; Event-Driven Ads; Lagging Demand; Implementation; Labor Price Discrimination
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Comments on January Employment Report The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to...
Mazdak
The 5-Step Blueprint to Achieve Financial Independence Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have...
2 weeks ago
11
2 weeks ago
Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have to work for money, but because you want to.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all! If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
2 weeks ago
2
2 weeks ago
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
Calculated Risk
January Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. IMPORTANT NOTE: For the household survey, new population controls will be used - and this will boost...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Crises Yet to Come "Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. ...
2 weeks ago
3
2 weeks ago
"Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. That the Trump Reformation / Counter-Reformation is disrupting various nodes of the status quo is viewed as an existential crise by many. The choice between Reformation /...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential...
The Diff
Short-Term Discretionary Traders Are Unusually Automatable Plus! Dimensions of Competition; Jurisdiction; Streaming Fragmentation; Diversification; Twitter...
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 214 thousand from 207 thousand last week.
Mazdak
DeepSeek Ban in Australian, Google Reverses Stance on AI Weaponization, ... 1.
2 weeks ago
Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
2 weeks ago
12
2 weeks ago
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
Calculated Risk
The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light...
2 weeks ago
7
2 weeks ago
An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs) through January 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Over time the mix has changed toward more and more light trucks and SUVs.  Only when oil prices are high, does...
Mazdak
Google Releases Gemini 2.0 Flash Google is making bold moves in the AI space with the release of Gemini 2.0, a series of advanced AI...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
Google is making bold moves in the AI space with the release of Gemini 2.0, a series of advanced AI models designed to challenge industry leaders like OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, and Anthropic.
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.5% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 6.9...
Commoncog
The Study of Asian Tycoons What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control...
2 weeks ago
10
2 weeks ago
What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control them?
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Moneyness
Trump claims US banks can't open in Canada—US banks disagree In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained...
2 weeks ago
3
2 weeks ago
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained yesterday on social media that CANADA DOESN'T EVEN ALLOW U.S. BANKS TO OPEN OR DO BUSINESS THERE. And so according to Trump, Canada doubly deserves to be disciplined with...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Increased 5% YoY in January This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the January 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 534 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
2 weeks ago
10
2 weeks ago
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
2 weeks ago
7
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 0.59%, up from 0.56% November. Freddie's rate is up...
The Diff
AI Interfaces Engineer Serendipity Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It...
2 weeks ago
10
2 weeks ago
Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It Sports Betting; Retaliatory Tariffs
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in December From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 7.6...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.5 million...
FIRE v London
My exits – a post mortem Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but...
2 weeks ago
12
2 weeks ago
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but not yet Rather like The Investor at Monevator, I firmly believe in the merits of low cost index tracking as an investment strategy, but I also enjoy the thrills / intellectual...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market Volatility We know that mortgage rates are driven by financial markets and we know that financial markets have experienced volatility amid the roll-out of new tariffs over the weekend....
oftwominds-Charles...
Lots of Solutions, But for Which Problems? If the "solutions" being offered are features of self-liquidating systems, they aren't solutions,...
2 weeks ago
4
2 weeks ago
If the "solutions" being offered are features of self-liquidating systems, they aren't solutions, they're problems. Problems, problems, problems. No worries, we have solutions. Solutions abound, but the question is: are they actually resolving the core problems, or are...
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.60 million SAAR in January Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Start 2025 With 4% Increase in January (pay site). There did not appear to be an end-of-month boost in demand, either as a rebound from the mid-month weather-related losses or...
The Diff
The Bid/Ask Spread for Top Talent Plus! De Minimis; ARR; Jurisdictions; Forward-Deployed Engineers; Software and Hardware; Diff Jobs
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Increased 0.5% in December From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending...
2 weeks ago
7
2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during December 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.2 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised November estimate of $2,180.3 billion. The December...
oftwominds-Charles...
Begging Bowl '25: I'm Looking for Two Readers Willing to Help Me Buy a New Thrift-Store Shirt The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's...
2 weeks ago
3
2 weeks ago
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's the goal of my work. I admire unvarnished honesty, which is scarce. And like everything else that's increasingly scarce, it behooves us to hoard our stash. In the unvarnished...
balajis.com
Network School Curriculum Topics, reading, and speakers.
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.4% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 January As expected with the MLK Day holiday, the...
2 weeks ago
11
2 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 January As expected with the MLK Day holiday, the U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 25 January. ... 119-25 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week...
Commoncog
The Gambling King The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling...
2 weeks ago
14
2 weeks ago
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling king of Macau.
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL...
2 weeks ago
10
2 weeks ago
This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade...
2 weeks ago
11
2 weeks ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade deficit​. ----- Monday, February 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. 10:00 AM:...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches o3-mini: A Faster, More Affordable AI Reasoning Model OpenAI has just unveiled o3-mini, the latest addition to its "reasoning" model family.
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Initial Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2% Range From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)...
3 weeks ago
12
3 weeks ago
From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate at +2.3%. We launched our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate at +2.3%, in line with the advance reading. [Jan 31st estimate] emphasis...
Musings on Markets
DeepSeek crashes the AI Party: Story Break, Change or Shift? I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics...
3 weeks ago
2
3 weeks ago
I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics of AI are pedestrian and that there will be things that I don't get right in this post. That said, DeepSeek's abrupt entry into the AI conversation has the potential to change the...
oftwominds-Charles...
AI Is a Digital Parrot: Word-Traps, False Logic and the Illusion of Intelligence Word traps and false logic don't lead to dominance of the future or monopolistic grips on limitless...
3 weeks ago
3
3 weeks ago
Word traps and false logic don't lead to dominance of the future or monopolistic grips on limitless profits. The heart of the current euphoric expectations for AI is a simple but problematic proposition: the equivalence of function equals intelligence. If using natural...
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
3 weeks ago
12
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
The Diff
Capital-Intensity and Legibility Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic...
3 weeks ago
12
3 weeks ago
Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic Reserves; Meta says Yes to Jevons
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.4% in December; Spending increased 0.7% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
The Diff
Test-Time Compute Scaling Drives the AI Jevons Paradox Plus! AI Price Discrimination; Openness; Disclosure; Arbitrage; Meta
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.3% Annualized Rate in Q4 From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross...
3 weeks ago
11
3 weeks ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S....
oftwominds-Charles...
The AI Fad Just Burned to the Waterline Sometimes wide moats and billions of dollars to blow lead not to glory but to hubris, which beckons...
3 weeks ago
3
3 weeks ago
Sometimes wide moats and billions of dollars to blow lead not to glory but to hubris, which beckons Nemesis. While everyone was busy reassuring themselves the stock market was still A-OK, the driver of the market--the AI fad--just burned to the waterline. Yes, the current...
Mazdak
U.S. Copyright Office Rules on AI: What It Means for Creators and Businesses Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming creative industries, but it has also raised serious...
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
Mazdak
OpenAI vs. DeepSeek: The AI Arms Race Heats Up The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major...
3 weeks ago
20
3 weeks ago
The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major concerns about intellectual property, competition, and the future of AI development.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 24, 2025....
oftwominds-Charles...
Welcome to the DeepSeek Disruption (DSD) In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no...
3 weeks ago
3
3 weeks ago
In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no scarcity value. Welcome to the DSD: DeepSeek Disruption. I've been fruitfully engaged in a lively dialog with readers on my Substack regarding my post yesterday Is DeepSeek a...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more...
3 weeks ago
2
3 weeks ago
It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more evidence on the limited power that central banks have to alter the trajectory of market interest rates. We started 2024 with the consensus wisdom that rates would drop during the year,...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024...
3 weeks ago
8
3 weeks ago
From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 Delinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial properties increased during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest commercial real...
The Diff
There is an "AI Factor," and It's Worth Hedging Plus! Sweeteners; The American Difference; AI Experiments; Media Relations; Sanctions are Hard,...
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
3 weeks ago
81
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing...
Citation Needed
Trump’s Project 2025 ghostwriters Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked...
3 weeks ago
14
3 weeks ago
Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked Trump devotees are writing policies at federal agencies.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 6.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar...
3 weeks ago
8
3 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 January. ... 12-18 January 2025 (percentage change from...
The Diff
The New National Champions Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile;...
3 weeks ago
14
3 weeks ago
Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile; Defense
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
3 weeks ago
13
3 weeks ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
oftwominds-Charles...
Is DeepSeek a Sputnik Moment? I'm not sure that "software will eat the world," but it could consume the stock market bubble in a...
3 weeks ago
4
3 weeks ago
I'm not sure that "software will eat the world," but it could consume the stock market bubble in a single gulp. Is DeepSeek a Sputnik Moment? Let's break it down. The Soviet Union's October 1957 launch of the world's first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, stunned the U.S.,...
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. ...
3 weeks ago
12
3 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data. New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 664 thousand in November. Dallas Fed...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2025: The times they are a'changin'! In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a...
3 weeks ago
3
3 weeks ago
In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a very good year for the overall market does not always translate into equivalent returns across segments of the market. In this post, I will remain focused on US equities, but I...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the January, March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in May. From BofA: We...
Mazdak
How DeepSeek, a Chinese AI Startup, is Challenging the Titans of Silicon Valley In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western...
3 weeks ago
17
3 weeks ago
In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western giants like OpenAI, Google, and Meta.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tech Right, 10 bits, Smart Screens, AI, Gambling, Memes, Soviet Magic
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales,...
3 weeks ago
12
3 weeks ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales, December Personal Income and Outlays and November Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, January 27th ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is...
Moneyness
Is it better to bribe Trump by purchasing his memecoin or his stock? Noah Smith writes a provocative article about memecoins as a novel mechanism for bribery payments. A...
4 weeks ago
4
4 weeks ago
Noah Smith writes a provocative article about memecoins as a novel mechanism for bribery payments. A foreign dignitary looking to gain influence over Donald Trump would like to pay him a giant bribe, but doing so directly is prohibited by all sort of laws. Luckily, Trump has just...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.3% to 3.0% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up two-tenths...
4 weeks ago
13
4 weeks ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar. [Jan 24th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final sales estimates unchanged, each at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter...
Bits about Money
A very Chicago gamble Chicago and Bally's have teamed up in an investment offering.
4 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay...
4 weeks ago
12
4 weeks ago
From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January...
Citation Needed
Issue 75 – Absolutely preposterous Trump horrifies even some of his crypto-steeped fans by launching a memecoin before his...
4 weeks ago
17
4 weeks ago
Trump horrifies even some of his crypto-steeped fans by launching a memecoin before his inauguration, and a flurry of activity from the new administration signals what’s in store for the crypto world in the next four years.
The Diff
Venture Global as a Well-Structured Trade Plus! Agents; Capital Returns; Creator Underwriting; Crypto Plays; Airlines
4 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24...
4 weeks ago
10
4 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Sales in December (4.24 million SAAR) were up 2.2% from the previous month and were 9.3% above the December 2023 sales rate. This was the third consecutive...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
4 weeks ago
4
4 weeks ago
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption? When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches Operator: The AI Agent That Works Autonomously (Why this could be the start of a new era for AI tools)
4 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
4 weeks ago
9
4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Here are a few more local markets before the NAR releases December Existing Home sales tomorrow, Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. This will be the 3rd...
The Diff
Planting a Flag Plus! Buildouts; Growth and Churn; Targeting Tweaks; DeepSeek; European Banks
4 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the...
4 weeks ago
14
4 weeks ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 212,750. emphasis added The...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Faces Lawsuit Over Alleged Data Use for AI Training In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn,...
a month ago
22
a month ago
In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn, Microsoft’s business-focused social media platform, is at the center of the latest debate.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for January.
Moneyness
Canadian guilt, Russian oil We Canadians are overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin, so when the CBC published an expose last...
a month ago
3
a month ago
We Canadians are overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin, so when the CBC published an expose last week about "banned Russian oil" sneaking into Canada, it was read in despair by most of us. What an awful failure of Canadian sanctions policy.  As with a lot of sanctions...
Mazdak
Meta's Oakley Smart Glasses, TikTok's Revenue Nearly Doubled YouTube's Last Year, Hidden Hashtags on... “What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds...
a month ago
18
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds were thus able to hold onto the gains from last week with some additional improvement today. The average mortgage lender wasn't eager to adjust rates, however, with the top tier...
The Diff
General-Purpose Technologies Revalue Natural Resources Plus! Meme Coins; Fees; Platforms; Opportunistic Offers; Private Accounting Fraud
a month ago
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
20
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release December Existing Home sales on Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million in...
Mazdak
TikTok, Netflix, and the Future of Media: Key Insights from 2024's Biggest Winners In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and...
a month ago
20
a month ago
In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and Netflix setting unprecedented benchmarks in user engagement, ad revenue, and growth.
Calculated Risk
Monday Night Futures Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair...
a month ago
20
a month ago
Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair value).
Citation Needed
No, Trump didn’t make $50 billion from his memecoin Journalists’ flawed math and ignorance of crypto markets turn tokens into fake fortunes
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a month ago
19
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Ph.D.-Level Super Agents The AI landscape is evolving at breakneck speed, and OpenAI is leading the charge.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 7.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
a month ago
24
a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 January. ... 5-11 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 49.2%...
Mazdak
Perplexity AI’s Bold Move to Merge with TikTok As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a...
a month ago
27
a month ago
As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a surprising yet intriguing bidder to merge with TikTok US.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Down 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing...
a month ago
20
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December Part 1: Current...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
a month ago
26
a month ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US...
a month ago
25
a month ago
The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day "Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter." Martin Luther King Jr. ----- Tuesday,...
Moneyness
Here’s why we tolerate fake check scams Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad...
a month ago
3
a month ago
Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad experiences with banks. Here’s a recent example. In November 2024, a charity inadvertently accepted a fake check from a would-be donor. The charity's bank allowed the charity to deposit...
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
189
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Citation Needed
Issue 74 – Stop asking me questions like “where does the yield come from” Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of...
a month ago
33
a month ago
Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of everyday Americans as they suck up to the powerful billionaires who will soon be publicly calling the shots.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2025: The Party Continued (for US Equities) In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years,...
a month ago
2
a month ago
In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025. That rise was driven by a surge in US equity...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.0% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up...
a month ago
22
a month ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Jan 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6%...
Mazdak
Whatever Happens to TikTok, Big Tech is Coming for Its Millions of Creators TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing...
a month ago
21
a month ago
TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing an uncertain future in the United States.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December,...
a month ago
22
a month ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December, unchanged from November’s preliminary pace and up 7.0% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat higher YOY % gain, reflecting this...
The Diff
Meme Markets Plus! Equity Comp, Squared; Venture Debt; 5%; Crypto Leverage; Closed-End Funds
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million...
a month ago
20
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up. Total starts were down 4.4% in...
Mazdak
Biden Not to Block TikTok, Apple's Credit Card Dilemma, Google Says No to EU Rules, ... The Biden administration has decided not to enforce the law that could force TikTok to go dark in...
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
a month ago
24
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.315 million SAAR, up from 1.289 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase...
Mazdak
Can Google’s Gemini Overtake ChatGPT in the AI Race? Google’s Gemini, the tech giant’s flagship AI chatbot, has been making headlines lately.
a month ago
The Diff
Two Models of Forward-Deployed Engineers Plus! Corporate VC; The New AI Model; The New AI Model, Continued; The Long But Volatile March;...
a month ago
Mazdak
Google Challenges EU’s New Disinformation Rules In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European...
a month ago
22
a month ago
In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European Union it will not incorporate fact-checking into its search results or YouTube rankings, despite the requirements of the EU’s new Disinformation Code of Practice.
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence "Edges Up" in January The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47,...
a month ago
17
a month ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47, up from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Edges Up Even as Market Risk Concerns...
Mazdak
Apple’s Credit Card Shakeup: A Look at the Future of Fintech Partnerships In 2019, Apple and Goldman Sachs partnered to launch the Apple Card, a bold move that combined...
a month ago
29
a month ago
In 2019, Apple and Goldman Sachs partnered to launch the Apple Card, a bold move that combined technology and finance to offer a seamless credit experience.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuider Survey Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
21
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released.  The...
Mazdak
The $50 Billion TikTok Dilemma: ByteDance’s Next Move in the U.S. In the world of social media, few platforms have experienced a meteoric rise like TikTok.
a month ago
Bits about Money
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately" Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal...
a month ago
23
a month ago
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew...
Mazdak
Bluesky’s Next Big Move: Introducing the Photo-Sharing App Flashes A new contender for the future of decentralized social media
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a month ago
20
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts...
Mazdak
Workspace AI Features Now Included for Free Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered...
a month ago
25
a month ago
Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered productivity tools.
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in November The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
a month ago
19
a month ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.8% (down from 3.9% YoY in November), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (down slightly from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy...
Mazdak
Big Tech Layoffs, Musk Acquiring TikTok, ChatGPT's New Features, ... Meta is executing a strategic 5% workforce reduction, but this isn't your typical layoff.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI, NY Fed Mfg, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
20
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be...
The Diff
Good Accounting is a Positive Externality Plus! Crossovers; Politics: Back on Meta; Structure; Gradual Tariffs; Property Rights
a month ago
Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for December is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for...
a month ago
26
a month ago
The Consumer Price Index for December is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.3% YoY. We expect a 0.25% increase in December...
Moneyness
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
a month ago
2
a month ago
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: PPI From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
a month ago
23
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The more important consideration is the new round of potential volatility on the horizon. Whereas it was the jobs report last week, this week's critical data will be Wednesday's Consumer...
The Diff
The Economics of Logos Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost...
a month ago
27
a month ago
Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost Avoidance; State AI Investment
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
24
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Commoncog
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota on Human-AI Symbiosis Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented...
a month ago
29
a month ago
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented approach to AI in real world domains.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are...
a month ago
32
a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are unchanged and DOW futures are up 68 (fair value). WTI futures at $76.57 per barrel and Brent at $79.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $73, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in...
a month ago
28
a month ago
Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in doing what was previously thought to be impossible. It's not so much a unified theory of extreme effort as it is a comprehensive refutation of the existence of such theories. There...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 12, 2024 The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. ----- Monday, January...
a month ago
29
a month ago
The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. ----- Monday, January 13th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 14th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. Producer Price Index for December...
Mazdak
OpenAI Ventures into Robotics, Grok App Launch, Trump Convicted, and US Jobs Report Highlights Big robotics news from OpenAI 🤖
a month ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on...
a month ago
2
a month ago
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on publicly traded companies and sharing what I find with anyone who is interested. It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and...
Calculated Risk
Goldman on Employment Report and FOMC A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well...
a month ago
23
a month ago
A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. ... The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting a 478k gain in household employment and an unchanged...
Citation Needed
Issue 73 – Degen volunteer fire brigade Terra founder Do Kwon is finally extradited, the CFPB proposes crypto consumer protections, and...
a month ago
35
a month ago
Terra founder Do Kwon is finally extradited, the CFPB proposes crypto consumer protections, and Polymarket reaches new lows.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.7% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three...
a month ago
26
a month ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP...
The Diff
The Loneliness Economy Wins Through Higher Sustained Productivity Growth Plus! Bond Vigilantes; Deeper AI Search; Analysts; Shareholder Votes; Networks are Expensive to...
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Comments on December Employment Report The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however,...
a month ago
24
a month ago
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined.   The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate...
Mazdak
Google & Microsoft $1M donation to Trump inauguration fund, Microsoft job cuts, Amazon ad business... Google, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and even Tim Cook are each donating $1M to President-elect Trump’s...
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier...
a month ago
27
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
The Diff
Moderation, Inside and Out Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More...
a month ago
28
a month ago
Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More Round-Trips
Calculated Risk
December Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is...
a month ago
23
a month ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs: We expect a below-consensus 125k increase in payrolls (vs. +160k consensus) in...