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Commoncog
The Jobs to be Done Framework as a Method to Understand Demand How and why the Jobs to be Done Framework can help you sell more, faster, and accelerate your...
19 hours ago
3

The Jobs to be Done Framework as a Method to Understand Demand

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

19 hours ago
How and why the Jobs to be Done Framework can help you sell more, faster, and accelerate your understanding of demand.
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Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season" in April The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40,...
12 hours ago
2

NAHB: "Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season" in April

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

12 hours ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40, up from 39 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing...
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oftwominds-Charles...
This Nails It: The Doom Loop of Housing Construction Quality Add in the doom loop of an unprecedented credit-asset bubble and housing as a sector is in trouble. ...
4 hours ago
1

This Nails It: The Doom Loop of Housing Construction Quality

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 hours ago
Add in the doom loop of an unprecedented credit-asset bubble and housing as a sector is in trouble. Sorry for the punnish-ment, but this nails it: How Contracting Work Became a Race to the Bottom The reality of being a contractor includes labor shortages, brutal...
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Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Higher inflation and slower growth" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the...
8 hours ago
1

Fed Chair Powell: "Higher inflation and slower growth"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 hours ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Those policies are still evolving, and their effects...
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The Diff
Unskilled Labor and Ambient Media Plus! AI as the Flexible Funnel; Treasuries; The Long Tail; Competition; It's Gas
2 days ago
2

Unskilled Labor and Ambient Media

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Plus! AI as the Flexible Funnel; Treasuries; The Long Tail; Competition; It's Gas
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Calculated Risk
U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2024 Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age...
2 days ago
2

U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group.  Those people are now in the 30 to 34 cohort. This month the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2024 by age, and I've updated the table from the...
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Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
3 days ago
5

OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
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The Rational Walk
Writing in Private Writing is an important tool for personal intellectual development even if you never intend to share...
3 days ago
6

Writing in Private

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Writing is an important tool for personal intellectual development even if you never intend to share your work with others.
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Calculated Risk
Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing...
3 days ago
3

Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different A brief excerpt: We are in a period of significant policy uncertainty and there isn’t a good historical analog for the current period. However, for...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of...
3 days ago
3

Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of markets for exports and resource extraction on terms that are only favorable to the Neocolonial power. The title of today's essay pays homage to the inimitable John D....
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The Diff
Information Economies and Institution Economies Plus! Distribution; Non-Tariff Barriers; Low-Background Text; Application Layer; Socks
3 days ago
3

Information Economies and Institution Economies

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Plus! Distribution; Non-Tariff Barriers; Low-Background Text; Application Layer; Socks
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Calculated Risk
Housing April 14th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
3 days ago
3

Housing April 14th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 12.5% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 5% or 6% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tract, Brains, 9/11, Diplomacy, Credit Cards, Crashes, 2024
5 days ago
4

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Tract, Brains, 9/11, Diplomacy, Credit Cards, Crashes, 2024
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th...
5 days ago
5

Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 15th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of...
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FIRE v London
Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front...
6 days ago
10

Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front over the last few weeks, seems a bit pointless. We entered March with a lot of drama about Ukraine, and some notable ‘ceasefire’ activity on the diplomatic front. We finished March...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.3% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
6 days ago
5

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.3% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
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Moneyness
If it's crypto it's not money laundering It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is...
6 days ago
9

If it's crypto it's not money laundering

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is routed via crypto infrastructure, then it no longer qualifies as money laundering. Earlier this week the Department of Justice's deputy attorney general Todd Blanche sent out an...
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The Diff
Will White-Collar Workers Experience a Blue-Collar Economic Recovery? Plus! Harvard; AI, Memory, and Moats; Grabbing Share; Concentrating Demand; When the Tide Goes Out
6 days ago
5

Will White-Collar Workers Experience a Blue-Collar Economic Recovery?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Plus! Harvard; AI, Memory, and Moats; Grabbing Share; Concentrating Demand; When the Tide Goes Out
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Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
6 days ago
4

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Last Gasp of the Landfill Economy It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate...
a week ago
6

Last Gasp of the Landfill Economy

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate its demise. Globalization's great gift wasn't low prices--it was the collapse of durability, transforming the global economy into a Landfill Economy of shoddy products made...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.6% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
a week ago
6

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.6% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 April. ... 30 March through 5 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 63.8%...
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The Diff
It Probably Takes More than Four Years to Eliminate Reserve Currency Status Plus! Elasticity; Tail Risk; What to Buy; How the Decision Got Made; US Export Pacing
a week ago
7

It Probably Takes More than Four Years to Eliminate Reserve Currency Status

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Elasticity; Tail Risk; What to Buy; How the Decision Got Made; US Export Pacing
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Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 3.7% YoY as...
a week ago
5

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 3.7% YoY as of March 2025, down from 4.1% YoY in February. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
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oftwominds-Charles...
A Decade of Headwinds These headwinds will persist for the next decade or two. The stock market is rallying hard...
a week ago
6

A Decade of Headwinds

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
These headwinds will persist for the next decade or two. The stock market is rallying hard after a brutal sell-off--not an uncommon occurrence. As we savor our winnings in the ship's first-class casino, it's not a bad idea to step out onto the deck and gauge the weather. ...
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Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 45 States in February (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in...
a week ago
6

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 45 States in February (3-Month Basis)

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in six states, and...
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Commoncog
The Sugar King of The East The life and times of one of the most skilled tycoons of South East Asia: Robert Kuok. This is the...
a week ago
11

The Sugar King of The East

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The life and times of one of the most skilled tycoons of South East Asia: Robert Kuok. This is the fourth case on the rise of a tycoon in the Asian Conglomerate series.
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a week ago
6

Wednesday: FOMC Minutes

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 18-19
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Citation Needed
Issue 81 – Crypto crime is legal Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
a week ago
8

Issue 81 – Crypto crime is legal

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
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Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd...
a week ago
6

By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
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The Diff
Why Volatility Fattens Traders' Fingers Plus! Ads and Data; Restocking, Destocking, and Equilibria; The Negotiations Continue; De-Risking;...
a week ago
6

Why Volatility Fattens Traders' Fingers

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Ads and Data; Restocking, Destocking, and Equilibria; The Negotiations Continue; De-Risking; Other Angles
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Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in March From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI),...
a week ago
6

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, receded 6.9% in March to 205.6 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 220.9. Over the month, commercial planning declined 7.8%...
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Musings on Markets
Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy! I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and...
a week ago
10

Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and as is my practice, I was checking the score on the Yankee game, when I read the tariff news announcement. Coming after a few days where the market seemed to have found its...
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Thoughts on Trade in 2003 In 2003, Warren Buffett wrote an article with a proposal to address the trade deficit. It deserves...
a week ago
9

Warren Buffett’s Thoughts on Trade in 2003

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
In 2003, Warren Buffett wrote an article with a proposal to address the trade deficit. It deserves more attention in the current tariff debate.
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Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in March; Down 0.2% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Seasonal Decline in March...
a week ago
7

Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in March; Down 0.2% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Seasonal Decline in March Despite Strong Market Demand Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in March compared to February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Financial Kessler Effect Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a...
a week ago
9

The Financial Kessler Effect

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a high-speed projectile with the potential to disable any other part of the system it impacts. Complex systems can undergo what's known as phase shifts, where the state of the system...
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The Diff
Finance as a Scale-Invariant Global Computer Plus! The Market; Supply and Demand; The March Continues; ETFs; Intellectual Property
a week ago
7

Finance as a Scale-Invariant Global Computer

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! The Market; Supply and Demand; The March Continues; ETFs; Intellectual Property
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Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
a week ago
7

Recession Watch Metrics

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Now I am on recession watch, but still not yet predicting a...
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Molson Hart's Blog -...
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries...
a week ago
24

America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back

from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”. These tariffs will not work. In fact, they...
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Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
a week ago
8

AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail,...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Plague, Manufacturing, FX, Agents, Trump, Surface Area, AI
a week ago
9

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plague, Manufacturing, FX, Agents, Trump, Surface Area, AI
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic...
a week ago
9

Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 8th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March. ----- Wednesday, April 9th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers...
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oftwominds-Charles...
After the Tariff Earthquake The fires that have been ignited are not yet visible. There's a eerie calm after an...
a week ago
10

After the Tariff Earthquake

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The fires that have been ignited are not yet visible. There's a eerie calm after an earthquake. Those trapped in collapsed buildings are aware of the consequences, but the majority experience a silence, as if the world stopped and has yet to restart. The full consequences...
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Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected"', Expect "higher... From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a...
a week ago
8

Fed Chair Powell: "Tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected"', Expect "higher inflation and slower growth"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in...
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The Diff
What moves the Efficient Frontier Between PE and SaaS for Improving Small Companies' Financial... Plus! Reindustrialization as a Financial Engineering Problem; How the Tariffs Happened; Meanwhile,...
a week ago
9

What moves the Efficient Frontier Between PE and SaaS for Improving Small Companies' Financial Performance?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Reindustrialization as a Financial Engineering Problem; How the Tariffs Happened; Meanwhile, in Europe; Lead Generation; The Platform
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Calculated Risk
Comments on March Employment Report The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and...
a week ago
7

Comments on March Employment Report

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined.   The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to...
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The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2025, including The Lessons of...
a week ago
12

What I’ve Been Reading

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2025, including The Lessons of History, American Journey, the works of Aristophanes, Plato, Xenophon, and more.
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Calculated Risk
March Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for...
a week ago
7

March Employment Preview

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 150k in March, slightly above consensus ... We estimate that the...
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The Diff
Tariffs and Currencies Plus! Interfaces; Surface Area; AI's Jobs Impact; Capacity; Capacity, Continued
a week ago
11

Tariffs and Currencies

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Interfaces; Surface Area; AI's Jobs Impact; Capacity; Capacity, Continued
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Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit decreased to $122.7 Billion in February The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
a week ago
7

Trade Deficit decreased to $122.7 Billion in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $122.7 billion in February, down $8.0 billion from $130.7 billion in January, revised. . ...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome....
2 weeks ago
9

The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome. Okay, players: jokers are wild, but with a twist: the entire deck is jokers. Since everyone at the table will have five Aces, nobody wins. Welcome to the Trade War Poker...
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Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in March: Lowest since May 2020 This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March...
2 weeks ago
9

Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in March: Lowest since May 2020

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to...
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Moneyness
Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use...
2 weeks ago
16

Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use decentralized databases like Ethereum and Tron to run their platforms. Secondly, and more important for the purposes of this article, they grant access to almost anyone, no questions...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
2 weeks ago
10

Wednesday: ADP Employment

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from...
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The Diff
eToro: Twitch Plays the Market Plus! OpenAI; Open AI; Supply Chains and Self-Tariffing; Surface Area; Secrets
2 weeks ago
8

eToro: Twitch Plays the Market

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! OpenAI; Open AI; Supply Chains and Self-Tariffing; Surface Area; Secrets
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Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in February From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
2 weeks ago
8

Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during February 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,195.8 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised January estimate of $2,179.9 billion. The February figure...
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Commoncog
How to Become an Asian Tycoon Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half...
2 weeks ago
14

How to Become an Asian Tycoon

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half the battle.
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly...
2 weeks ago
9

Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70%...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Why the Global Recession Will be Deeper and Longer Than Pundits Anticipate The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two...
2 weeks ago
13

Why the Global Recession Will be Deeper and Longer Than Pundits Anticipate

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two decades of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization anticipate. While everyone focuses on conflicts between nations, few look at the problems shared by nations. Richard...
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The Diff
"Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question Plus! Solve for X + X; Refactoring; AI and Distribution; How Models Think; The AI Business Model
2 weeks ago
9

"Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Solve for X + X; Refactoring; AI and Distribution; How Models Think; The AI Business Model
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Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
2 weeks ago
9

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Jobs, Nobels, AI, Magazines, Worms, Complements
2 weeks ago
13

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Jobs, Nobels, AI, Magazines, Worms, Complements
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell...
2 weeks ago
10

Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday. ----- Monday, March 31st ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in...
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Citation Needed
Issue 80 – Aimed at benefiting the digital assets industry As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions...
2 weeks ago
15

Issue 80 – Aimed at benefiting the digital assets industry

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions himself for maximum personal profit
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1% From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to...
2 weeks ago
9

Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 27th...
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The Diff
IP Protection in the Era of Fast Copying and Watermark Removal Plus! Data and Outsourcing CoreWeave Fraud Realignment Local AI
2 weeks ago
11

IP Protection in the Era of Fast Copying and Watermark Removal

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Data and Outsourcing CoreWeave Fraud Realignment Local AI
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Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.3% YoY in February Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
2 weeks ago
9

PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.3% YoY in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Ultra-Processed Life Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the...
2 weeks ago
17

Ultra-Processed Life

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the destruction and derangement of an Ultra-Processed Life. The digital realm, finance, and junk food have something in common: they're all ultra-processed, synthetic versions of...
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Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.4% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below...
2 weeks ago
9

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.4% below 2022 peak

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the January Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
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The Diff
StubHub: Market-Making in a Maximally-Heterogeneous Asset Class Plus! Lobbying Through Products; Models; Digital Assets; Skill Levels; Risk Premia
2 weeks ago
14

StubHub: Market-Making in a Maximally-Heterogeneous Asset Class

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Lobbying Through Products; Models; Digital Assets; Skill Levels; Risk Premia
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.0% in February; Down 3.6% YoY From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February Pending home sales improved 2.0% in...
2 weeks ago
9

NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.0% in February; Down 3.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February Pending home sales improved 2.0% in February according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with a larger decrease in the West – while the...
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The Diff
The Two-Sided Uncertainty Tax Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free...
3 weeks ago
11

The Two-Sided Uncertainty Tax

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free Trade; Private and Public
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Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
3 weeks ago
10

New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in February 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
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The Diff
There's More Than One Efficient Market Paradox Plus! Reciprocal Tariffs; AI Purgatory; Payments and Credit; LinkedInFluencers; Efficient Markets
3 weeks ago
13

There's More Than One Efficient Market Paradox

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Reciprocal Tariffs; AI Purgatory; Payments and Credit; LinkedInFluencers; Efficient Markets
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Calculated Risk
Housing March 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 30.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
3 weeks ago
12

Housing March 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 30.3% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 7.0% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing seasonally. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Archiving, Externalities, OpenAI, 2024, Abundance, Hiring, The Dollar
3 weeks ago
13

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Archiving, Externalities, OpenAI, 2024, Abundance, Hiring, The Dollar
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP,...
3 weeks ago
12

Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP, February Personal Income & Outlays, and January Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, March 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a...
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oftwominds-Charles...
POD People 2025 In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New...
3 weeks ago
13

POD People 2025

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New Normal. In the cultural zeitgeist, the term Pod People refers to the novel and film franchise Invasion of the Body Snatchers, in which nomadic aliens reach Earth and spawn...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous...
3 weeks ago
10

Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous adjustment, it appears GDPNow (adjusted) is slightly positive for Q1. (For more on the gold adjustment, see For GDP Forecasters, Some Gold Doesn't Glitter Our 1Q GDP tracking...
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The Diff
Why do Stocks Only go up at Night? Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil...
3 weeks ago
10

Why do Stocks Only go up at Night?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil Companies Want?
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Calculated Risk
Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise...
3 weeks ago
11

Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise with FHA Performance in the Spotlight • The national delinquency rate edged up 5 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in February; that’s up 19 bps from a year ago but still 32 bps below where...
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Citation Needed
Issue 79 – Mundus sine Caesaribus The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal...
3 weeks ago
16

Issue 79 – Mundus sine Caesaribus

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal to its target demographic by bashing trans people
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in...
3 weeks ago
11

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the...
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The Diff
Investors as Translators Plus! $44bn; Banks and Rates Trades; Connected Cows; Competing With AI; Recaps
3 weeks ago
20

Investors as Translators

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! $44bn; Banks and Rates Trades; Connected Cows; Competing With AI; Recaps
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the...
3 weeks ago
11

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 750 from the previous...
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Moneyness
Canadian banks as U.S. hostages? BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to...
4 weeks ago
16

Canadian banks as U.S. hostages?

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to use "economic force" against Canada. In my previous post, I worried that one way this force could be wielded was through Canada's dangerous dependence on U.S.-controlled...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
4 weeks ago
10

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 220 thousand last week. Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Economy of Denial: Addiction, Extortion, Deception Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the...
4 weeks ago
14

The Economy of Denial: Addiction, Extortion, Deception

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the most opinionated become circumspect when the discussion turns to The Addiction Economy, for the term The Addiction Economy calls things by their real name, which disrupts our...
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate; "Uncertainty Increased" Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
4 weeks ago
11

FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate; "Uncertainty Increased"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. maintain the target range for the federal...
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The Diff
MNTN Scales the Small-Scale Advertiser Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily...
4 weeks ago
13

MNTN Scales the Small-Scale Advertiser

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily Rebundling; Competing for Capital
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Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in February From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
4 weeks ago
11

Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in February after moving up 0.3 percent in January. Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent, boosted by a jump of 8.5 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The...
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Commoncog
How Reliance Won How the Ambanis became the richest family in Asia. This is the third case on the rise of a tycoon,...
4 weeks ago
15

How Reliance Won

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
How the Ambanis became the richest family in Asia. This is the third case on the rise of a tycoon, and the last one before we start talking about the core pattern in all of these Asian Tycoon’s lives. Part 6 in the Asian Conglomerate Series.
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
a month ago
13

Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for February. The consensus is for 1.383 million SAAR, up from 1.366 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February. The consensus is a 0.3% increase in...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Here Come the Chaos Monkeys The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload,...
a month ago
15

Here Come the Chaos Monkeys

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins. Chaos Monkeys excel at distraction and extortion. They appear suddenly, leaping about in disorienting mayhem,...
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The Diff
Klarna and the Two Pivots of 2022 Plus! Diff Jobs; Crypto Adoption; Art Margin Calls; Liquidations; Corporate Espionage; DeepSeek
a month ago
12

Klarna and the Two Pivots of 2022

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Crypto Adoption; Art Margin Calls; Liquidations; Corporate Espionage; DeepSeek
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Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty" in March The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39,...
a month ago
9

NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty" in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, down from 42 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty Economic...
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Molson Hart's Blog -...
The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action DECIDE D - Determine the Bottleneck E - Engage with the subject matter C - Clear distractions I -...
a month ago
16

The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action

from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
DECIDE D - Determine the Bottleneck E - Engage with the subject matter C - Clear distractions I - Implement mental models D - Decide how to proceed E - Execute next steps When you’re traveling or waiting for something to happen, instead of listening to a podcast or scrolling on...
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
a month ago
11

FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in June, and another cut later in the...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2025 Proxy Statement Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development...
a month ago
13

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2025 Proxy Statement

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development given Warren Buffett's prior statements.
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. The "Home...
a month ago
11

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Part 2: Current State of the...
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Musings on Markets
Investing Politics: Globalization Backlash and Government Disruption! I will start with a couple of confessions. The first is that I see the world in shades of gray, and...
a month ago
21

Investing Politics: Globalization Backlash and Government Disruption!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
I will start with a couple of confessions. The first is that I see the world in shades of gray, and in a world where more and more people see only black and white, that makes me an outlier. Thus, if you are reading this post expecting me to post a diatribe or a tribute to Trump,...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Equity Nation, Hansa, Commodities, DOGE, LLMS, Recessions, AI, Rhodes, The GFC
a month ago
11

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Equity Nation, Hansa, Commodities, DOGE, LLMS, Recessions, AI, Rhodes, The GFC
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025 The key reports this week are February Retail sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. -----...
a month ago
13

Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The key reports this week are February Retail sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, March 17th ----- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in retail sales. Empire State manufacturing survey...
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FIRE v London
Feb ’25: The top comes off What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding...
a month ago
18

Feb ’25: The top comes off

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it. From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened What’s going on with me? My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city...
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Calculated Risk
March 14th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
12

March 14th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore,...
a month ago
21

Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore, because it's made in the U.S. by Kellogg's. But I'm still buying Shreddies, which is made in Niagara Falls, Ontario. Even that's a grey area, since Shreddies is owned by Post, a big...
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The Rational Walk
Buffett & Munger Unscripted A new book by Alex Morris distills key insights and wisdom from three decades of Berkshire Hathaway...
a month ago
21

Buffett & Munger Unscripted

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
A new book by Alex Morris distills key insights and wisdom from three decades of Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings.
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Citation Needed
“Wait, not like that”: Free and open access in the age of generative AI The real threat isn’t AI using open knowledge — it’s AI companies killing the projects that make...
a month ago
14

“Wait, not like that”: Free and open access in the age of generative AI

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The real threat isn’t AI using open knowledge — it’s AI companies killing the projects that make knowledge free
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down...
a month ago
12

Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down two tenths to 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Mar 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.3% last week. [Mar...
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The Diff
Deals and Hype Trades Plus! AI Models and Comparative Advantage; Proprietary Data; AI and Incentives; The Neoteny...
a month ago
14

Deals and Hype Trades

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! AI Models and Comparative Advantage; Proprietary Data; AI and Incentives; The Neoteny Business; Substitution
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Calculated Risk
Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
a month ago
12

Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: This entire housing cycle I’ve argued that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the...
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Commoncog
Speedrunning the Skill of Demand How to get better, faster at the skill of uncovering demand, which underpins the skill domains of...
a month ago
17

Speedrunning the Skill of Demand

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
How to get better, faster at the skill of uncovering demand, which underpins the skill domains of sales, marketing, and product.
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.8% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
11

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.8% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New...
a month ago
15

Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New Roaring 20s of exhilarating expansion, or will we suffer a Great Depression 2.0? Gordon Long and I explore this binary in our latest podcast. Why is the next decade a binary of...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023...
a month ago
14

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023 were: “We've already started the process of where that capacity is coming out.  A lot of it transborder, big drop in Canadian traffic to go into the U.S.”. This could impact hotel occupancy...
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The Diff
Central Banks and the Guidance Paradox Plus! Crowded Trades; CoreWeave; The Bots; Accounting; Political Meme Stocks
a month ago
10

Central Banks and the Guidance Paradox

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Crowded Trades; CoreWeave; The Bots; Accounting; Political Meme Stocks
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Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: 1.1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024 From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity...
a month ago
12

CoreLogic: 1.1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Nationwide, borrower equity increased by $281.9 billion, or 1.7% year-over-year. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which...
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Citation Needed
Crypto reserves: no public good, no principles The formerly anti-government bitcoin movement abandons its principles in favor of number-go-up,...
a month ago
21

Crypto reserves: no public good, no principles

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The formerly anti-government bitcoin movement abandons its principles in favor of number-go-up, applauds federal plan to stockpile seized crypto with no clear benefit to national interest
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Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
12

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
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The Diff
Will There Ever be a Company-Killing Hack? Plus! Divided Attention; Demand; Buying Low?; The Stuff Tax; Mispriced Derivatives
a month ago
13

Will There Ever be a Company-Killing Hack?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Divided Attention; Demand; Buying Low?; The Stuff Tax; Mispriced Derivatives
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Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.7 million in January From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
a month ago
14

BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.7 million in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.3 million. Within...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We...
a month ago
20

Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We inhabit an Addiction Economy. We all know the cure for addiction is to go Cold Turkey: drop the denial and delusion of control, and excise the source of the addiction from one's...
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Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a month ago
14

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale. Currently I’m watching...
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The Diff
Text and Telos Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate...
a month ago
15

Text and Telos

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate Structure; DeepSeek Governance
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Calculated Risk
Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
a month ago
15

Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.9% from the seasonal bottom eight weeks ago in January and should start increasing significantly in the Spring. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
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Mazdak
Manus: The AI Agent That Could Change Everything On March 6, the global AI landscape shifted.
a month ago
15

Manus: The AI Agent That Could Change Everything

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
On March 6, the global AI landscape shifted.
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Calculated Risk
Poor Weather Reduced Employment Slightly in February The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February.   During the Winter months, I...
a month ago
15

Poor Weather Reduced Employment Slightly in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 404 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. ...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade,...
a month ago
17

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade, Karp
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases...
a month ago
17

Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, March 11th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the...
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The Diff
Two Kinds of News Business Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
a month ago
16

Two Kinds of News Business

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
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Calculated Risk
Comments on February Employment Report The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and...
a month ago
12

Comments on February Employment Report

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to...
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The Diff
The CoreWeave Triangle Plus! Gimmicks; Correlations; Continuous Search; Re-Emerging Markets; Tax Incidence
a month ago
17

The CoreWeave Triangle

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Gimmicks; Correlations; Continuous Search; Re-Emerging Markets; Tax Incidence
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Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
a month ago
13

Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. ...
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism! In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
a month ago
22

Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
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Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly" Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported...
a month ago
12

Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Stoicism of the Caregiver These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of...
a month ago
19

The Stoicism of the Caregiver

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of caregiving don't get much attention. They're not part of the news flow, and the day-to-day grind of caregiving doesn't lend itself to the self-promotional zeitgeist of social media....
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Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
a month ago
30

Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
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Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
a month ago
15

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
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Mazdak
Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational...
a month ago
24

Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational assistants—Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Although both are built on large language models, they diverge sharply in design philosophy, technical implementation, safety...
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The Diff
PE: Cycles and One-Off Events Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
a month ago
18

PE: Cycles and One-Off Events

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
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Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January; Fannie Mae... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
a month ago
15

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January; Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic)

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.61%, up from 0.59% December. Freddie's rate is up...
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oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On? Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
a month ago
20

If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
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Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January...
a month ago
14

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some...
a month ago
21

Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some clues that are worth considering.
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Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
a month ago
15

Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure...
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The Diff
AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk...
a month ago
17

AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk Management; Diff Jobs
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3%...
a month ago
14

ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3% in February, down from 50.9% in January. The employment index was at 47.6%, down from 50.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.6%, down from...
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Commoncog
Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators?...
a month ago
23

Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators? We examine the career of one activist investor, to see what that tells us about the Asian tycoons we’ve been studying.
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Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
a month ago
18

Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
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Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is...
a month ago
17

Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. Light vehicle sales for...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Hackers, Safety, EBITDA, More Hackers, Feudalism, Randomness, CEOs
a month ago
16

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Hackers, Safety, EBITDA, More Hackers, Feudalism, Randomness, CEOs
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. ----- Monday, March 3rd...
a month ago
17

Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. ----- Monday, March 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for...
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Moneyness
What do you do with memecoins? Apparently you collect them, says the SEC I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and...
a month ago
25

What do you do with memecoins? Apparently you collect them, says the SEC

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and thus come under the purview of securities regulators like the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Securities law is confusing. But what I do know is that the SEC's latest notion...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable...
a month ago
18

Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable speculative asset in the global financialization casino. It can't be both. We tend to think of housing becoming unaffordable as a matter of land prices, zoning and the cost of...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print...
a month ago
16

Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print and a tenth higher than our tracking estimate. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 28th] emphasis added From Goldman:...
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The Diff
Running an Oil Major in a Not-Post-Hydrocarbon-Any-Time-Soon World Plus! Corporate VC; Hacking AI Moderation; Product Parity; Crypto Regulation; GPU Demand
a month ago
13

Running an Oil Major in a Not-Post-Hydrocarbon-Any-Time-Soon World

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Corporate VC; Hacking AI Moderation; Product Parity; Crypto Regulation; GPU Demand
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Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
a month ago
16

PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
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Mazdak
OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.5: Here’s Everything You Need to Know The AI race just got more interesting.
a month ago
19

OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.5: Here’s Everything You Need to Know

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The AI race just got more interesting.
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
14

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
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The Diff
Amazon Wants AI Models Commoditized. Can They Make it Happen? Plus! Business and Editorial; The Other AI Growth Story; Getting Ahead of the Shift; Activist Shorts
a month ago
16

Amazon Wants AI Models Commoditized. Can They Make it Happen?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Business and Editorial; The Other AI Growth Story; Getting Ahead of the Shift; Activist Shorts
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low" From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in...
a month ago
15

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with the most significant drop in the South...
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Mazdak
Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of...
a month ago
19

Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of Ocelot, its first quantum chip, developed in collaboration with Caltech.
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Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross...
a month ago
16

Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S....
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