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The Diff
Time Arbitrage and SaaS Pricing Power Plus! Search UX; Mining Crypto; Moderation; News is a Distribution Business; AI as UI
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 8.1 million in November From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
8 months ago
50
8 months ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.3...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $78.2 Billion in November The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
8 months ago
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8 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October, revised. ...
FIRE v London
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
8 months ago
84
8 months ago
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
Mazdak
Trudeau's resignation, Dana White joining Meta's board, YouTube taking on TikTok, SuperIntelligence... After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime...
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM Services From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where they left off before the X-mas/New Year holiday weeks. ... Although the past 2...
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Retail Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q4 Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased...
8 months ago
41
8 months ago
Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another Record, Retail Rents Drift Higher with Tight Supply,...
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing Lessons learned from a quarter century of active investing, along with annual performance...
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 10% YoY in December This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
8 months ago
52
8 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in...
8 months ago
51
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another...
The Diff
Credentialism and the Money Illusion Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and...
8 months ago
50
8 months ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and Downside of Ads; Backcasting Returns
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
Calculated Risk
Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
8 months ago
44
8 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
8 months ago
45
8 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
8 months ago
39
8 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales Fannie and Freddie: Single...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2024 The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. ----- Monday, January 6th...
8 months ago
51
8 months ago
The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. ----- Monday, January 6th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 7th ----- 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor...
Calculated Risk
January 3rd COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
8 months ago
40
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
Meta's Fake AI Profiles, the TikTok Ban, Telegram Updates, and Microsoft's $80 Billion AI Investment... Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.80 million SAAR in December Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End...
8 months ago
53
8 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site). December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a fourth quarter rebound after demand dropped in Q2...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: around 2.4% From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
8 months ago
42
8 months ago
From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%. [Jan 2nd estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth...
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below...
8 months ago
36
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the October Case-Shiller house price index released earlier this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index...
The Diff
The Large- and Small-Home Market Advantages Plus! Who Bears Ban Risk?; Carvana and Short-Selling Economics; VC; Productivity; A More Normal...
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.3% in December (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3%...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November. The employment index was at 45.3%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 52.5%, up from 50.4%. Manufacturing...
Calculated Risk
Friday: ISM Mfg, Vehicle Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates...
8 months ago
42
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.3, down from 48.4 in November. Light vehicle sales for...
Citation Needed
Elon Musk and the right’s war on Wikipedia The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part of an intensifying campaign against free and open access information.
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
8 months ago
45
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in November From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending...
8 months ago
51
8 months ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 211,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the...
8 months ago
40
8 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly...
8 months ago
40
8 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). mortgage purchase applications index. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 223...
Calculated Risk
Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
8 months ago
43
8 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and...
8 months ago
47
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2025, Bill Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006. There is much more...
Calculated Risk
Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
8 months ago
45
8 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
8 months ago
36
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). ...
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average...
8 months ago
48
8 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.6% Annual Gain in October 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week...
8 months ago
47
8 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
Citation Needed
Not just one bad apple: FTX's practices were business as usual in crypto Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret...
8 months ago
66
8 months ago
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret acquisitions of “grey area” businesses, buying influence, and creative accounting.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
8 months ago
53
8 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 21 December. ... 15-21 December 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): Occupancy:...
Calculated Risk
Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
8 months ago
43
8 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
8 months ago
40
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.2% in November; Up 6.9% Year-over-year From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of...
8 months ago
40
8 months ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of Increases Pending home sales gained 2.2% in November – the fourth consecutive month of increases and the highest level since February 2023 – according to the National Association of REALTORS®....
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 30th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.5% Week-over-week, Up 26.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will...
8 months ago
58
8 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in late January or February. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
Calculated Risk
Monday: Pending Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for...
8 months ago
40
8 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional...
Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
8 months ago
44
8 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
8 months ago
42
8 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024 Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025. ----- Monday, December 30th ----- 9:45 AM:...
8 months ago
44
8 months ago
Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025. ----- Monday, December 30th ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity...
Moneyness
Someone is wrong on the internet about the SWIFT network There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments...
8 months ago
23
8 months ago
There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments traffic on SWIFT, a key global financial messaging network. Below is a version from the Economist, but I've seen other versions too. Source: The Economist When banks make...