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Calculated Risk
December 27th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
8 months ago
56
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
8 months ago
44
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.3% to 3.1% From Goldman: We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
8 months ago
39
8 months ago
From Goldman: We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q4 domestic final sales forecast stands at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Dec 27th estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model...
Calculated Risk
Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts... Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The Stoic Emperor, The Intelligent Investor, The Trail, and more.
Calculated Risk
Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025? Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the...
8 months ago
45
8 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 225,500. emphasis added The...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates...
8 months ago
63
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 220 thousand last week.
Calculated Risk
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All! High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!) beach in Newport. Best Wishes to All!
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Interest Rates Since the Federal Reserve Began Cutting Rates From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on graph for larger image. 10-Year T1PS Yield
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show...
Calculated Risk
Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025? Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase...
8 months ago
57
8 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
Citation Needed
Issue 72 – A seat at the table The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government...
8 months ago
74
8 months ago
The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government continues to worsen, and several media outlets botch their crypto reporting at a time it’s needed most.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Richmond Fed...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.50% as of November 30, 2024. According to MBA’s...
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in November Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were...
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
8 months ago
47
8 months ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.2% Week-over-week, Up 26.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  Inventory is now...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 9.7% below the peak for the year (9 weeks ago). Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in January or February. The first graph...
Mazdak
Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ... Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Chicago Fed National...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease. New Home Sales for November from...
Calculated Risk
Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. I'll follow up with some thoughts on each...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions. We can assume the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will be extended.  That larger tariffs will be imposed on some imports, and there will be some...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November Lawler:...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. ----- Tuesday, December 24th ----- 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4%...
Calculated Risk
December 20th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
8 months ago
56
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a...
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024 At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1% From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4%...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model...
The Diff
The Nvidia Way is the Regular Way, Just Faster Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese Characteristics
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.8% YoY in November Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024. CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.3% in November; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
8 months ago
50
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the PCE price index to increase 0.2%, and...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024 From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. As the nation’s...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15...
8 months ago
44
8 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate). Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted...
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
8 months ago
65
8 months ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase Since June 2021 Existing-home sales grew in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and remained steady in the...
Calculated Risk
Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP...
8 months ago
46
8 months ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "third" estimate...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the...
8 months ago
45
8 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250. emphasis added The...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
8 months ago
51
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 232 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third...
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Projections Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. projections.  Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the...
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Flat" in November; Multi-family Billings Turn Slightly Positive Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI November 2024: Architecture firm billings remain flat Despite the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score dipping slightly below 50 for the month, it remains close...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million...
8 months ago
42
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up slightly, combined. Total...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 13,...