Calculated Risk
1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024...
2 hours ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006
A brief excerpt:
Although total housing starts decreased 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, completions increased sharply...
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in 2024, Intermodal Up
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
5 hours ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.
For the full year 2024, total U.S. carloads were 11.34 million, down 2.9% (343,156 carloads) from 2023 and down 2.3% (265,491 carloads) from 2022. ... Carloads...
Citation Needed
No, Trump didn’t make $50 billion from his memecoin
Journalists’ flawed math and ignorance of crypto markets turn tokens into fake fortunes
7 hours ago
Journalists’ flawed math and ignorance of crypto markets turn tokens into fake fortunes
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week.
Inventory always...
8 hours ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week.
Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night: Markets Closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025
US markets will be closed in observance of Martin...
21 hours ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025
US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day
WTI futures at $77.88 per barrel and Brent at $80.79 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are up about 5%...
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Ph.D.-Level Super Agents
The AI landscape is evolving at breakneck speed, and OpenAI is leading the charge.
yesterday
The AI landscape is evolving at breakneck speed, and OpenAI is leading the charge.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 7.7% Year-over-year
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January
The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
yesterday
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January
The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 January. ...
5-11 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):
Occupancy: 49.2%...
Mazdak
Perplexity AI’s Bold Move to Merge with TikTok
As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a...
yesterday
As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a surprising yet intriguing bidder to merge with TikTok US.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Down 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Housing...
2 days ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December
Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
Part 1: Current...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
2 days ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025
The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales.
----- Monday, January 20th -----
All US...
2 days ago
The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales.
----- Monday, January 20th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day
"Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter." Martin Luther King Jr.
----- Tuesday,...
Moneyness
Here’s why we tolerate fake check scams
Source: Better Business Bureau
The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad...
2 days ago
Source: Better Business Bureau
The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad experiences with banks. Here’s a recent example. In November 2024, a charity inadvertently accepted a fake check from a would-be donor.
The charity's bank allowed the charity to deposit...
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Citation Needed
Issue 74 – Stop asking me questions like “where does the yield come from”
Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of...
2 days ago
Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of everyday Americans as they suck up to the powerful billionaires who will soon be publicly calling the shots.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2025: The Party Continued (for US Equities)
In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years,...
3 days ago
In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025. That rise was driven by a surge in US equity...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.0% Range
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up...
3 days ago
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Jan 17th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6%...
Mazdak
Whatever Happens to TikTok, Big Tech is Coming for Its Millions of Creators
TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing...
3 days ago
TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing an uncertain future in the United States.
Mazdak
ChatGPT’s Newest Feature Lets You Customize Its Personality
OpenAI has announced an exciting update for ChatGPT users: the ability to customize the chatbot’s...
3 days ago
OpenAI has announced an exciting update for ChatGPT users: the ability to customize the chatbot’s personality and interaction style.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December,...
3 days ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December, unchanged from November’s preliminary pace and up 7.0% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat higher YOY % gain, reflecting this...
The Diff
Meme Markets
Plus! Equity Comp, Squared; Venture Debt; 5%; Crypto Leverage; Closed-End Funds
3 days ago
Plus! Equity Comp, Squared; Venture Debt; 5%; Crypto Leverage; Closed-End Funds
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million...
3 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December
A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up.
Total starts were down 4.4% in...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production (IP)...
3 days ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual...
3 days ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,499,000. This is 15.8 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,294,000, but is 4.4 percent below the December 2023 rate of 1,568,000. Single-family housing starts...
Mazdak
Biden Not to Block TikTok, Apple's Credit Card Dilemma, Google Says No to EU Rules, ...
The Biden administration has decided not to enforce the law that could force TikTok to go dark in...
3 days ago
The Biden administration has decided not to enforce the law that could force TikTok to go dark in the U.S.
Mazdak
The Future of TikTok in the U.S.: What Happens on January 19?
The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
3 days ago
The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
Calculated Risk
Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Housing Starts...
3 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.315 million SAAR, up from 1.289 million SAAR.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase...
Calculated Risk
Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen
Here is a YouTube video of a discussion with Mike Simonsen.
Enjoy.
4 days ago
Here is a YouTube video of a discussion with Mike Simonsen.
Enjoy.
Mazdak
Can Google’s Gemini Overtake ChatGPT in the AI Race?
Google’s Gemini, the tech giant’s flagship AI chatbot, has been making headlines lately.
4 days ago
Google’s Gemini, the tech giant’s flagship AI chatbot, has been making headlines lately.
The Diff
Two Models of Forward-Deployed Engineers
Plus! Corporate VC; The New AI Model; The New AI Model, Continued; The Long But Volatile March;...
4 days ago
Plus! Corporate VC; The New AI Model; The New AI Model, Continued; The Long But Volatile March; Post-IPO
Mazdak
Google Challenges EU’s New Disinformation Rules
In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European...
4 days ago
In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European Union it will not incorporate fact-checking into its search results or YouTube rankings, despite the requirements of the EU’s new Disinformation Code of Practice.
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence "Edges Up" in January
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47,...
4 days ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47, up from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
Builder Confidence Edges Up Even as Market Risk Concerns...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.4% in December
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and...
4 days ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from December 2023.
report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of
14,000 from the...
4 days ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of
14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 201,000 to
203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous...
Mazdak
Apple’s Credit Card Shakeup: A Look at the Future of Fintech Partnerships
In 2019, Apple and Goldman Sachs partnered to launch the Apple Card, a bold move that combined...
4 days ago
In 2019, Apple and Goldman Sachs partnered to launch the Apple Card, a bold move that combined technology and finance to offer a seamless credit experience.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuider Survey
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week.
Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. The...
Mazdak
The $50 Billion TikTok Dilemma: ByteDance’s Next Move in the U.S.
In the world of social media, few platforms have experienced a meteoric rise like TikTok.
5 days ago
In the world of social media, few platforms have experienced a meteoric rise like TikTok.
Bits about Money
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
5 days ago
What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately"
Fed's Beige Book
Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal...
5 days ago
Fed's Beige Book
Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew...
Mazdak
Bluesky’s Next Big Move: Introducing the Photo-Sharing App Flashes
A new contender for the future of decentralized social media
5 days ago
A new contender for the future of decentralized social media
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
5 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025
A brief excerpt:
Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts...
Mazdak
Workspace AI Features Now Included for Free
Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered...
5 days ago
Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered productivity tools.
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in November
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.
Click on graph for larger...
5 days ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.
Click on graph for larger image.
On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.8% (down from 3.9% YoY in November), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (down slightly from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy...
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
Here are a few measures of inflation:
Click on graph for larger image.
Services were up 4.4% YoY as...
5 days ago
Here are a few measures of inflation:
Click on graph for larger image.
Services were up 4.4% YoY as of December 2024, down from 4.5% YoY in November.
The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in December; Core CPI increased 0.2%
From the BLS:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a...
5 days ago
From the BLS:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis
in December, after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the
last 12 months, the all items index...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications...
5 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications increased 33.3 percent from one
week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending January 10, 2025....
Mazdak
Big Tech Layoffs, Musk Acquiring TikTok, ChatGPT's New Features, ...
Meta is executing a strategic 5% workforce reduction, but this isn't your typical layoff.
5 days ago
Meta is executing a strategic 5% workforce reduction, but this isn't your typical layoff.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI, NY Fed Mfg, Beige Book
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage...
5 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage purchase applications index.
Consumer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be...
Calculated Risk
Two Bank Failures in 2024
There were four bank failures in 2024. The median number of failures since the FDIC was established...
6 days ago
There were four bank failures in 2024. The median number of failures since the FDIC was established in 1933 was 7 - so 2 failures in 2024 was below the median.
Click on graph for larger image.
The second graph includes pre-FDIC failures. In a typical year - before the...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
6 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025
A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-January provides a snapshot of the current housing market.
tells the tale! I’m watching...
The Diff
Good Accounting is a Positive Externality
Plus! Crossovers; Politics: Back on Meta; Structure; Gradual Tariffs; Property Rights
6 days ago
Plus! Crossovers; Politics: Back on Meta; Structure; Gradual Tariffs; Property Rights
Calculated Risk
CPI Preview
The Consumer Price Index for December is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for...
6 days ago
The Consumer Price Index for December is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.3% YoY.
We expect a 0.25% increase in December...
Moneyness
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
6 days ago
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: PPI
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week
The...
6 days ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week
The more important consideration is the new round of potential volatility on the horizon. Whereas it was the jobs report last week, this week's critical data will be Wednesday's Consumer...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas November 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 0.6% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 8.4%
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics
Punctuated by the...
a week ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics
Punctuated by the second annual F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix and the SEMA tradeshow, Las Vegas
hosted more than 3.3M visitors in November, slightly up over last year (+0.6% YoY).
convention attendance
was...
The Diff
The Economics of Logos
Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost...
a week ago
Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost Avoidance; State AI Investment
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 13th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 23.6% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week.
Inventory will...
a week ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week.
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click...
Commoncog
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota on Human-AI Symbiosis
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented...
a week ago
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented approach to AI in real world domains.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025
Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are...
a week ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025
Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are unchanged and DOW futures are up 68 (fair value).
WTI futures at $76.57 per barrel and Brent at $79.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $73, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil...
Calculated Risk
January 12th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Moody's:...
a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
Update: The...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Longreads
Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in...
a week ago
Longreads
Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in doing what was previously thought to be impossible. It's not so much a unified theory of extreme effort as it is a comprehensive refutation of the existence of such theories. There...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 12, 2024
The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts.
----- Monday, January...
a week ago
The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts.
----- Monday, January 13th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.
----- Tuesday, January 14th -----
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December.
Producer Price Index for December...
Mazdak
OpenAI Ventures into Robotics, Grok App Launch, Trump Convicted, and US Jobs Report Highlights
Big robotics news from OpenAI 🤖
a week ago
Big robotics news from OpenAI 🤖
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on...
a week ago
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on publicly traded companies and sharing what I find with anyone who is interested. It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and...
Calculated Risk
Goldman on Employment Report and FOMC
A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note:
Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well...
a week ago
A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note:
Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. ... The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting a 478k gain in household employment and an unchanged...
Citation Needed
Issue 73 – Degen volunteer fire brigade
Terra founder Do Kwon is finally extradited, the CFPB proposes crypto consumer protections, and...
a week ago
Terra founder Do Kwon is finally extradited, the CFPB proposes crypto consumer protections, and Polymarket reaches new lows.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.7% Range
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three...
a week ago
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three
tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to
our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP...
The Diff
The Loneliness Economy Wins Through Higher Sustained Productivity Growth
Plus! Bond Vigilantes; Deeper AI Search; Analysts; Shareholder Votes; Networks are Expensive to...
a week ago
Plus! Bond Vigilantes; Deeper AI Search; Analysts; Shareholder Votes; Networks are Expensive to Build
Calculated Risk
Comments on December Employment Report
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however,...
a week ago
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate...
Calculated Risk
December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
From the BLS: Employment Situation
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in...
a week ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate
changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment
trended up in health care, government, and social...
Mazdak
Google & Microsoft $1M donation to Trump inauguration fund, Microsoft job cuts, Amazon ad business...
Google, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and even Tim Cook are each donating $1M to President-elect Trump’s...
a week ago
Google, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and even Tim Cook are each donating $1M to President-elect Trump’s inauguration fund.
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Friday:
Employment Report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%.
University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Calculated Risk
The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP
A brief excerpt:
Two years ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP. Here is an update to a couple of graphs. The bottom line...
The Diff
Moderation, Inside and Out
Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More...
a week ago
Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More Round-Trips
Calculated Risk
December Employment Preview
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is...
a week ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%.
From Goldman Sachs:
We expect a below-consensus 125k increase in payrolls (vs. +160k consensus) in...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 201,000
This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported:
emphasis added
The...
a week ago
This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported:
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter, Unemployment Claims
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Thursday:
NYSE...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Thursday:
NYSE and the NASDAQ will be closed in observance of a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter.
Small Business Optimism Index for December.
initial weekly unemployment...
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 10% in December
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December
The Dodge Momentum Index...
a week ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 10.2% in December to 212.0 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 192.3. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.2%...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: "The process [of reaching inflation target] could take longer than previously...
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt:
With...
a week ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt:
With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in December
Wholesale...
a week ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in December
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in December compared to November. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 204.8, an increase...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 122,000 in December
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December
“The...
a week ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December
“The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains. Health care stood out in the second half of the year,...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications...
a week ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one
week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending January 3, 2025....
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
a week ago
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
Mazdak
Meta's Shifting Approach to Politics and Content Moderation
Meta is backtracking on its political content policy.
a week ago
Meta is backtracking on its political content policy.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage purchase applications index.
ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 143,000, down from 146,000 jobs added in...
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in November
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index...
a week ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
CoreLogic: Northeastern, New England States Continue to Lead US for...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
Brief excerpt:...
a week ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
Brief excerpt:
Another monthly update on rents.
Welcome to the January 2025 Apartment List National Rent Report. The national median monthly rent closed out 2024 at $1,373 in December, after...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increases to 54.1% in December
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.1%, up from 52.1% last month. The...
a week ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.1%, up from 52.1% last month. The employment index decreased to 51.4%, from 51.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.
Services PMI® at 54.1% December 2024 Services ISM® Report On...
The Diff
Time Arbitrage and SaaS Pricing Power
Plus! Search UX; Mining Crypto; Moderation; News is a Distribution Business; AI as UI
a week ago
Plus! Search UX; Mining Crypto; Moderation; News is a Distribution Business; AI as UI
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 8.1 million in November
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
The number of job openings was little changed...
a week ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations were little
changed at 5.3...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $78.2 Billion in November
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
a week ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today
that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in
October, revised.
...
FIRE v London
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
a week ago
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
Mazdak
Trudeau's resignation, Dana White joining Meta's board, YouTube taking on TikTok, SuperIntelligence...
After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime...
a week ago
After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime Minister of Canada.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM Services
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week
The bond...
a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week
The bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where they left off before the X-mas/New Year holiday weeks. ... Although the past 2...
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Retail Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q4
Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased...
2 weeks ago
Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High
Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another Record, Retail Rents Drift Higher with Tight Supply,...
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing
Lessons learned from a quarter century of active investing, along with annual performance...
2 weeks ago
Lessons learned from a quarter century of active investing, along with annual performance statistics.
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 10% YoY in December
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
2 weeks ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand.
Click on graph for larger image.
Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High
A brief excerpt:
From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another...
The Diff
Credentialism and the Money Illusion
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and...
2 weeks ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and Downside of Ads; Backcasting Returns
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week.
Inventory will...
2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week.
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
2 weeks ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?
Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?
Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
Calculated Risk
Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger...
2 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
Fannie and Freddie: Single...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
2 weeks ago
Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2024
The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.
----- Monday, January 6th...
2 weeks ago
The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.
----- Monday, January 6th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.
----- Tuesday, January 7th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.
10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor...
Calculated Risk
January 3rd COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
Meta's Fake AI Profiles, the TikTok Ban, Telegram Updates, and Microsoft's $80 Billion AI Investment...
Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
2 weeks ago
Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.80 million SAAR in December
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End...
2 weeks ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site).
December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a fourth quarter rebound after demand dropped in Q2...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: around 2.4%
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
2 weeks ago
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%. [Jan 2nd estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth...
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak
It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the October Case-Shiller house price index released earlier this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index...
The Diff
The Large- and Small-Home Market Advantages
Plus! Who Bears Ban Risk?; Carvana and Short-Selling Economics; VC; Productivity; A More Normal...
2 weeks ago
Plus! Who Bears Ban Risk?; Carvana and Short-Selling Economics; VC; Productivity; A More Normal Economy
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.3% in December
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3%...
2 weeks ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November. The employment index was at 45.3%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 52.5%, up from 50.4%.
Manufacturing...
Calculated Risk
Friday: ISM Mfg, Vehicle Sales
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).
ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.3, down from 48.4 in November.
Light vehicle sales for...
Citation Needed
Elon Musk and the right’s war on Wikipedia
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part...
2 weeks ago
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part of an intensifying campaign against free and open access information.
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
A brief excerpt:
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
2 weeks ago
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in November
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending...
2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 211,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of
9,000 from the...
2 weeks ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of
9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to
220,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest
MBA Weekly...
2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest
MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two
weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).
mortgage purchase applications index.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 223...
Calculated Risk
Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November
Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2025, Bill
Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006.
There is much more...
Calculated Risk
Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). ...
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average...
2 weeks ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices).
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.6% Annual Gain in October 2024
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope
Last week...
2 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope
Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
Citation Needed
Not just one bad apple: FTX's practices were business as usual in crypto
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret...
2 weeks ago
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret acquisitions of “grey area” businesses, buying influence, and creative accounting.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
2 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 21 December. ...
15-21 December 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
Occupancy:...
Calculated Risk
Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
3 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
A brief excerpt:
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.2% in November; Up 6.9% Year-over-year
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of...
3 weeks ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of Increases
Pending home sales gained 2.2% in November – the fourth consecutive month of increases and the highest level since February 2023 – according to the National Association of REALTORS®....
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 30th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.5% Week-over-week, Up 26.8% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.
Inventory will...
3 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in late January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
Calculated Risk
Monday: Pending Home Sales
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for...
3 weeks ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.
Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index.
Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional...
Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
3 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in...
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home...
3 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025.
----- Monday, December 30th -----
9:45 AM:...
3 weeks ago
Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025.
----- Monday, December 30th -----
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.
Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index.
Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity...
Moneyness
Someone is wrong on the internet about the SWIFT network
There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments...
3 weeks ago
There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments traffic on SWIFT, a key global financial messaging network. Below is a version from the Economist, but I've seen other versions too.
Source: The Economist
When banks make...
Calculated Risk
December 27th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
A brief excerpt:
Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.3% to 3.1%
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
3 weeks ago
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q4 domestic final sales forecast stands at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Dec 27th estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model...
Calculated Risk
Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
3 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The...
3 weeks ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The Stoic Emperor, The Intelligent Investor, The Trail, and more.
Calculated Risk
Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of
1,000 from the...
3 weeks ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of
1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,500, an increase of
1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 225,500.
emphasis added
The...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates...
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 220 thousand last week.
Calculated Risk
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All!
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
3 weeks ago
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Interest Rates Since the Federal Reserve Began Cutting Rates
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Click on graph for larger image.
10-Year T1PS Yield
3 weeks ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Click on graph for larger image.
10-Year T1PS Yield
Calculated Risk
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth
From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show...
Calculated Risk
Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
Citation Needed
Issue 72 – A seat at the table
The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government...
3 weeks ago
The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government continues to worsen, and several media outlets botch their crypto reporting at a time it’s needed most.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Richmond Fed...
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.
NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
The Mortgage...
4 weeks ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.50% as of November 30, 2024. According to MBA’s...
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in November
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
4 weeks ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate...
4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
Brief excerpt:
The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were...
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities
Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
4 weeks ago
Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
4 weeks ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand.
Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according
to estimates released jointly today by the...
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.2% Week-over-week, Up 26.3% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
4 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now 9.7% below the peak for the year (9 weeks ago).
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in January or February.
The first graph...
Mazdak
Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ...
Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
4 weeks ago
Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024
Ten Economic Questions for 2025
Chicago Fed National...
4 weeks ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024
Ten Economic Questions for 2025
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.
Durable Goods Orders for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease.
New Home Sales for November from...
Calculated Risk
Ten Economic Questions for 2025
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024.
I'll follow up with some thoughts on each...
4 weeks ago
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024.
I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions.
We can assume the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will be extended. That larger tariffs will be imposed on some imports, and there will be some...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in...
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
NAR:...
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Lawler:...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
a month ago
Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
----- Monday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National...
a month ago
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
----- Monday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.
----- Tuesday, December 24th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November. The consensus is for a 0.4%...
Calculated Risk
December 20th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on...
a month ago
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content). Brief excerpt:
Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a...
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
a month ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough). I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1%
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4%...
a month ago
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model...
The Diff
The Nvidia Way is the Regular Way, Just Faster
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese...
a month ago
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese Characteristics
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.8% YoY in November
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
a month ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.3% in November; Spending increased 0.4%
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:
Personal income increased...
a month ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:
Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Personal Income...
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the PCE price index to increase 0.2%, and...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades...
a month ago
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades
The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
As the nation’s...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15...
a month ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate).
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted...
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
a month ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase...
a month ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase Since June 2021
Existing-home sales grew in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and remained steady in the...
Calculated Risk
Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP...
a month ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "third" estimate...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the...
a month ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of
1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250.
emphasis added
The...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 232 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week.
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third...
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Projections
Statement here.
press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM...
a month ago
Statement here.
press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
projections. Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC...
a month ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC Statement:
lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the...
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Flat" in November; Multi-family Billings Turn Slightly Positive
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
a month ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.
ABI November 2024: Architecture firm billings remain flat
Despite the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score dipping slightly below 50 for the month, it remains close...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up slightly, combined.
Total...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual...
a month ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications...
a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from
one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending December 13,...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage...
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage purchase applications index.
Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up from 1.311 million SAAR.
Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator...
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
a month ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
A brief excerpt:
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November, up 3.3% from October’s preliminary pace and up 4.6% from...
Citation Needed
Businessweek: Crypto Got What It Wanted in November’s Election. Now What?
The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the...
a month ago
The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the next crypto crash.
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
a month ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged in December
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46,...
a month ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46, unchanged from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
Builder sentiment held steady to end the year as high home...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in November
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production (IP)...
a month ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production (IP) moved down 0.1 percent in November after declining 0.4 percent in October. In November, manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent, boosted by a 3.5 percent increase in the index for motor...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in November
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and...
a month ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8 percent from November 2023.
report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Mazdak
Waymo in Japan, Veo 2 AI video, Snapchat Monetization ...
Google DeepMind has upped the game in AI video generation.
a month ago
Google DeepMind has upped the game in AI video generation.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope
Last week...
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope
Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. ...
Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million...
The Diff
What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up?
Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
a month ago
Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now 7.7% below the peak for the year (8 weeks ago).
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024
Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
a month ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024
Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 5.8, down from 31.2.
Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).
WTI futures at $71.12 per...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp...
a month ago
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut at the March...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home ATM" Mostly Closed
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Part 1:...
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
2nd...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
a month ago
Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd...
a month ago
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays.
----- Monday, December 16th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
A brief excerpt:
Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
Moneyness
It's time to trash the "store of value" function of money
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that...
a month ago
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that money has three functions: medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Maybe it’s time for educators to throw out this triumvirate. It’s not very accurate.
We need a...
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt:
We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
a month ago
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to...
a month ago
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to
3.0% q/q saar. Additionally, our 4Q US GDP tracker was unchanged at 2.1% q/q saar. [Dec 13th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final...
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
a month ago
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on Prime Video 😀
Calculated Risk
Friday: No major economic releases scheduled
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Friday:
• No...
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Friday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.5% YoY
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief excerpt:
During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q3
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
a month ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.
Click on graph for larger image.
Net worth increased $4.8 trillion in Q3 to an all-time high. As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is below the peak in...
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased Slightly in Q3 2024
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024:
The Industry’s Net Income Decreased...
a month ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024:
The Industry’s Net Income Decreased From the Prior Quarter, Driven by One-Time Items
Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios
Persists
the industry reported the largest...
The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset
Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
a month ago
Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000
The DOL reported:
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a month ago
The DOL reported:
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence, Gemini 2.0, Amazon Autos and more
Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
a month ago
Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week.
Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Musings on Markets
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
a month ago
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
The Diff
How High Does AI's Revenue Per User Get?
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't...
a month ago
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't Scale Yet; Complete Markets; Legitimacy and Growth
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
a month ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
Mazdak
Google Quantum Computer, OpenAI Sora Video Generator and more ...
Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
a month ago
Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
a month ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Mazdak
Cloudflare 2024 Internet Report Analysis
Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in...
a month ago
Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in internet traffic, security, and adoption.
Mazdak
Canada Tax Brackets 2025 🇨🇦
As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and...
a month ago
As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and businesses.
The Rational Walk
The Cost of Corporate Security
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that...
a month ago
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that justifies higher corporate spending to protect executives.
The Diff
Social Media as a Test of Human-in-the-Loop Generative AI
Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
a month ago
Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
a month ago
Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
a month ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
The Diff
Initiations
Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
a month ago
Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
a month ago
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
Mazdak
The Dangers of AI "Answers"
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring...
a month ago
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring the lines between fact and fiction.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #227
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
a month ago
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
a month ago
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned.
I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
The Diff
Are VCs Incentivized to be too Nice for Venture Debt?
Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
a month ago
Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
Mazdak
Understanding Family Trusts in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide
What is a Family Trust?
a month ago
The Diff
Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First?
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
a month ago
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
Mazdak
TFSA 2025: Your Complete Guide to Tax-Free Savings in Canada
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to...
a month ago
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to be a bright spot for Canadian investors.
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
a month ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
Commoncog
How to Use Power
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
a month ago
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized?
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
a month ago
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
a month ago
Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
The Diff
What Would a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Actually Do?
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State:...
a month ago
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State: Beauty Filters Edition
Mazdak
Unplugging Australia: Kids vs. Social Media
Australia is going offline!
a month ago
Australia is going offline!
Mazdak
The Unexpected Saviour of Journalism
In a digital landscape drowning in AI-generated noise, an unlikely hero emerges: generative AI...
a month ago
In a digital landscape drowning in AI-generated noise, an unlikely hero emerges: generative AI itself.
Mazdak
Inside xAI: Musk vs. OpenAI
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his...
a month ago
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his former company, OpenAI, to do it.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
a month ago
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
Mazdak
Decentralization Debate: Unpacking Bluesky's Architecture
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it...
a month ago
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it truly lives up to the hype.
The Diff
We Still Have No Idea Whether Passive Investing is a Meaningful Risk
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC;...
a month ago
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC; Tariff Man
Moneyness
How my views on financial privacy have evolved over a decade
I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this...
a month ago
I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this blog. Over the past decade, my views have shifted significantly—here's how and why.
Rereading my earliest mentions of financial privacy, they now seem a bit... idealistic? extreme?...
Commoncog
What is Power?
Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing...
a month ago
Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing markets. A members-only mini series.
Mazdak
Anthropic & Amazon Partnership
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup,...
a month ago
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup, and Amazon, the tech giant with cloud dominance.
Citation Needed
Video: The Cryptocurrency Industry's Unprecedented Election Spending
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political...
a month ago
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political goals, and what’s next.
Moneyness
Pricing the anonymity of banknotes
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments...
2 months ago
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments services, they also offer financial anonymity.
This post introduces the idea of trying to price the anonymity
component.
To help think about why we might want to price anonymous...
Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis?
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
2 months ago
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
Commoncog
Stan Slap on the Art of Building Effective Employee Cultures
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent...
2 months ago
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent model for shaping employee culture.
Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
2 months ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
Mazdak
The Psychology of Investing: 5 Critical Traps That Can Destroy Your Wealth
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising...
2 months ago
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising portfolios into cautionary tales.
Mazdak
The Latest in Smartglasses Tech
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of...
2 months ago
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of smartglasses is heating up!
The Rational Walk
The Digest #225
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role...
2 months ago
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role in Trump's Victory, Taxes in Retirement, James J. Hill, IKEA, F. A. Hayek, Shakespeare
The Rational Walk
A Dangerous Interregnum
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory...
2 months ago
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory risks plunging the world into crisis in the finals months of his administration.
Citation Needed
Issue 70 – The Cryptocurrency States of America
Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
2 months ago
Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
2 months ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #224
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending...
2 months ago
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending human lifespan, Fastenal's success story, Buffett's early investments, IKEA's founder
Musings on Markets
The Siren Song of Sustainability: The Theocratic Trifecta's Third Leg!
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in...
2 months ago
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in sanctimony, nurtured in hypocrisy and sold with sophistry. My voyage with ESG began with curiosity in my 2019 exploration of what it purported to measure, turned to cynicism as the...
Mazdak
Meta Fined & FBI on Polymarket
Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
2 months ago
Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
Mazdak
CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension...
2 months ago
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS).
Mazdak
Today's Top Tech News - Amazon's Discount Store
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
2 months ago
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
Mazdak
Tech Today - Apple Smart Home Camera
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
2 months ago
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
2 months ago
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Mazdak
Amazon Glasses: Seeing the Future of Delivery
Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages,...
2 months ago
Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages, and even take photos of deliveries as proof for customers.
Mazdak
AI.com to Chat.com: OpenAI's Domain Domination
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've...
2 months ago
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've dropped a huge amount of cash – likely over $15.5 million – to snag the premium domain Chat.com.
Mazdak
Buffett's $325 Billion Warning
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway,...
2 months ago
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's company, is sitting on a record $325 billion in cash after selling off major chunks of Apple and Bank of America stock.
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
2 months ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
Mazdak
Popular Business Tips That Are Actually Hurting Your Success
In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice...
2 months ago
In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice that often does more harm than good.
Mazdak
Elon Musk: All In
He's the richest man in the world, a tech titan, and now...
2 months ago
He's the richest man in the world, a tech titan, and now...
Mazdak
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
2 months ago
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #223
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected...
2 months ago
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Market Prices as Political Predictors, The Three Indias, Semiconductor Progress
Citation Needed
Wind the clock
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
2 months ago
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
2 months ago
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy.
All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
Mazdak
Block, TikTok & Beyond
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping...
2 months ago
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping our digital world.
Mazdak
Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
2 months ago
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors!
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
2 months ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
The Rational Walk
Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable...
2 months ago
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable majority in the electoral college but a likely majority in the national popular vote as well.
Mazdak
Trump's Antitrust Agenda: Big Tech in the Balance
Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
2 months ago
Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #222
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online...
2 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online Speech, Price Controls, Shakespeare's Caesar, Musk and SpaceX, Micro-Cap Investing
Mazdak
TFSA Talk: Unlocking Tax-Free Wealth 🇨🇦
Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
2 months ago
Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
Mazdak
Compound Interest: A Comprehensive Guide
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
2 months ago
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2 months ago
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
Mazdak
The Rise of Nvidia and the Fall of Intel
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its...
2 months ago
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its influence in the tech world.
Mazdak
RRSP vs TFSA: Making the Right Choice for Your Financial Future
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful...
2 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful investment vehicles available to Canadians.
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
2 months ago
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
Full Width 
Shortcuts 
Sign Up 
Log In 
Articles 
Reading List 