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Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel up 1% YoY This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from...
an hour ago
1
an hour ago
This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of April 16, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Air travel is up about 1.3% YoY.
FIRE v London
A stupid decision to sell my rental property I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth...
6 hours ago
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6 hours ago
I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth around £1m, right in the heart of London – near the middle of the map below. I used to live in it, I travel past it regularly, I know its neighbourhood well. The Modern Flat has...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts at 1.324 million Annual Rate in March At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing...
20 hours ago
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20 hours ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing and Demographics Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different 3rd Look at Local Housing...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Moon, Welch, Robinhood, Heterodoxy, Bots, Liquidity, Trade, Google
23 hours ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, April...
yesterday
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yesterday
The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, April 21st ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 22nd ----- 10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. ----- Wednesday, April 23rdh...
Calculated Risk
April 18th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 days ago
2
2 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Family Home: From Shelter to Asset to Liability The deflation of asset bubbles and higher costs are foreseeable, but the magnitude of each is...
2 days ago
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2 days ago
The deflation of asset bubbles and higher costs are foreseeable, but the magnitude of each is unpredictable. With the rise of financialized asset bubbles as the source of our "growth," family home went from shelter to speculative asset. This transition accelerated as...
balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
2 days ago
Calculated Risk
Housing and Demographics Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt:...
2 days ago
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2 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt: I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010. The arrow points to the large cohort moving...
The Diff
Does VIX Have Fundamentals? Plus! Customer Service; Latency; Corp Dev.; Scavengers; Broken Windows
2 days ago
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to...
2 days ago
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2 days ago
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to Jan and Feb core control retail sales. [Apr 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)....
Calculated Risk
Friday: Markets Closed for Good Friday Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. US markets will...
2 days ago
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2 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2025
Citation Needed
Trump’s newest grift: Building a cryptocurrency empire while destroying its regulators Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is...
3 days ago
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3 days ago
Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is using presidential power to dismantle the regulators who could stop it
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.2% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 days ago
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3 days ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
The Diff
Is an AI Startup a Company or a Gig? Plus! Reasoning; Coding Assistants; Human-Level Intelligence; Insider Information; The China Squeeze
3 days ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million...
3 days ago
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3 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March A brief excerpt: First, from Reuters: D.R. Horton cuts 2025 revenue forecast on weak demand for homes U.S. homebuilder D.R. Horton lowered its full-year revenue...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
3 days ago
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3 days ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,324,000. This is 11.4 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,494,000, but is 1.9 percent above the March 2024 rate of 1,299,000. Single-family housing starts...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 215,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 days ago
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3 days ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. Housing Starts for March. The consensus is for 1.410 million...
oftwominds-Charles...
This Nails It: The Doom Loop of Housing Construction Quality Add in the doom loop of an unprecedented credit-asset bubble and housing as a sector is in trouble. ...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
Add in the doom loop of an unprecedented credit-asset bubble and housing as a sector is in trouble. Sorry for the punnish-ment, but this nails it: How Contracting Work Became a Race to the Bottom The reality of being a contractor includes labor shortages, brutal...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Higher inflation and slower growth" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Those policies are still evolving, and their effects...
Calculated Risk
CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit From CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit as economists postpone pre-pandemic...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
From CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit as economists postpone pre-pandemic recovery to 2029 Whatever hopes the travel industry had in a full recovery to 2019 levels of travel bookings this year have officially been dashed, according to one economist. "What...
Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season" in April The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40,...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40, up from 39 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.3% in March From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased...
4 days ago
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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3 percent in March but increased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent in the first quarter. The March decline was led by a 5.8 percent drop in the index for utilities, as temperatures...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 1.4% in March On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.6 percent from March 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 8.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 11,...
Commoncog
The Jobs to be Done Framework as a Method to Understand Demand How and why the Jobs to be Done Framework can help you sell more, faster, and accelerate your...
4 days ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
5 days ago
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5 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in retail sales.  Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in February: Visitor Traffic Down 11.9% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 19.5% YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: February 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With the combined...
5 days ago
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5 days ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: February 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With the combined factors of a tough comparison to last year when Super Bowl LVIII was held in the destination, a net decrease in the convention segment tied to rotation cycles, and one fewer day...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
5 days ago
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5 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
The Diff
Unskilled Labor and Ambient Media Plus! AI as the Flexible Funnel; Treasuries; The Long Tail; Competition; It's Gas
5 days ago
Calculated Risk
U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2024 Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age...
5 days ago
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5 days ago
Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group.  Those people are now in the 30 to 34 cohort. This month the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2024 by age, and I've updated the table from the...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was...
6 days ago
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6 days ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. Last week was also notable for ranking among the more...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads Obviously a major...
6 days ago
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6 days ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads Obviously a major catalyst for the surge in MBS yields was the sharp increase in intermediate- and long-term Treasury rates. Putting additional upward pressure on MBS yields was the surge in...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
6 days ago
The Rational Walk
Writing in Private Writing is an important tool for personal intellectual development even if you never intend to share...
6 days ago
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6 days ago
Writing is an important tool for personal intellectual development even if you never intend to share your work with others.
Calculated Risk
Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing...
6 days ago
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6 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different A brief excerpt: We are in a period of significant policy uncertainty and there isn’t a good historical analog for the current period. However, for...
oftwominds-Charles...
Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of...
6 days ago
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6 days ago
The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of markets for exports and resource extraction on terms that are only favorable to the Neocolonial power. The title of today's essay pays homage to the inimitable John D....
The Diff
Information Economies and Institution Economies Plus! Distribution; Non-Tariff Barriers; Low-Background Text; Application Layer; Socks
6 days ago
Calculated Risk
Housing April 14th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
6 days ago
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6 days ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 12.5% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 5% or 6% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48...
a week ago
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a week ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48 and DOW futures are up 250 (fair value). WTI futures at $61.50 per barrel and Brent at $64.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $86, and Brent was at $93 - so WTI oil prices are...
Calculated Risk
PCE Inflation expected to be Soft in March The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. ...
a week ago
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a week ago
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. The data released so far suggests the PCE inflation will be soft in March. The producer price index (PPI), the PPI excluding food and energy, and the PPI excluding food, energy, and...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home Prices Continue to Cool" At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
a week ago
5
a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tract, Brains, 9/11, Diplomacy, Credit Cards, Crashes, 2024
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th...
a week ago
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a week ago
The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 15th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of...
Calculated Risk
April 11th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
6
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
FIRE v London
Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front...
a week ago
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a week ago
What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front over the last few weeks, seems a bit pointless. We entered March with a lot of drama about Ukraine, and some notable ‘ceasefire’ activity on the diplomatic front. We finished March...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.3% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a week ago
105
a week ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q...
a week ago
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a week ago
From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 11th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the...
Moneyness
If it's crypto it's not money laundering It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is...
a week ago
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a week ago
It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is routed via crypto infrastructure, then it no longer qualifies as money laundering. Earlier this week the Department of Justice's deputy attorney general Todd Blanche sent out an...
The Diff
Will White-Collar Workers Experience a Blue-Collar Economic Recovery? Plus! Harvard; AI, Memory, and Moats; Grabbing Share; Concentrating Demand; When the Tide Goes Out
a week ago
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
a week ago
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a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
Calculated Risk
Friday: PPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Producer Price...
a week ago
11
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Producer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for...
oftwominds-Charles...
Last Gasp of the Landfill Economy It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate...
a week ago
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a week ago
It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate its demise. Globalization's great gift wasn't low prices--it was the collapse of durability, transforming the global economy into a Landfill Economy of shoddy products made...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.6% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
a week ago
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a week ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 April. ... 30 March through 5 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 63.8%...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a week ago
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a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and...
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in February The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
a week ago
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a week ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down slightly unrounded from 3.5% YoY in February), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0% (down from 3.1%), and the CPI less food...
The Diff
It Probably Takes More than Four Years to Eliminate Reserve Currency Status Plus! Elasticity; Tail Risk; What to Buy; How the Decision Got Made; US Export Pacing
a week ago
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 3.7% YoY as...
a week ago
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a week ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 3.7% YoY as of March 2025, down from 4.1% YoY in February. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Decreased 0.1% in March; Core CPI increased 0.1% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a...
a week ago
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a week ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the...
a week ago
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a week ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised average of 223,000. emphasis added The following...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a week ago
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a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 219 thousand last week. Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is...
oftwominds-Charles...
A Decade of Headwinds These headwinds will persist for the next decade or two. The stock market is rallying hard...
a week ago
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a week ago
These headwinds will persist for the next decade or two. The stock market is rallying hard after a brutal sell-off--not an uncommon occurrence. As we savor our winnings in the ship's first-class casino, it's not a bad idea to step out onto the deck and gauge the weather. ...
Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 45 States in February (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in...
a week ago
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a week ago
From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in six states, and...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: "Inflation was likely to be boosted this year" From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 18–19, 2025. Excerpt: With regard...
a week ago
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a week ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 18–19, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants judged that inflation was likely to be boosted this year by the effects of higher tariffs, although significant uncertainty surrounded...
Calculated Risk
Trump Drops Tariffs to 10% Just minutes after Goldman Sachs put out a note forecasting a recession, Mr. Trump lowered all...
a week ago
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a week ago
Just minutes after Goldman Sachs put out a note forecasting a recession, Mr. Trump lowered all tariffs to 10% (except China). Moving to a Recession Baseline We now expect the US’s effective tariff rate to rise by at least 20pp and are forecasting a recession with a 12-month...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a week ago
6
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-April provides a snapshot of the current housing market. Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook. Since then,...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a week ago
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a week ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 4,...
Commoncog
The Sugar King of The East The life and times of one of the most skilled tycoons of South East Asia: Robert Kuok. This is the...
a week ago
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a week ago
The life and times of one of the most skilled tycoons of South East Asia: Robert Kuok. This is the fourth case on the rise of a tycoon in the Asian Conglomerate series.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a week ago
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a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 18-19
Citation Needed
Issue 81 – Crypto crime is legal Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
a week ago
Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd...
a week ago
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a week ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
a week ago
6
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
The Diff
Why Volatility Fattens Traders' Fingers Plus! Ads and Data; Restocking, Destocking, and Equilibria; The Negotiations Continue; De-Risking;...
a week ago
7
a week ago
Plus! Ads and Data; Restocking, Destocking, and Equilibria; The Negotiations Continue; De-Risking; Other Angles
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in March From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI),...
a week ago
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a week ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, receded 6.9% in March to 205.6 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 220.9. Over the month, commercial planning declined 7.8%...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Small Business Optimism From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Worst 24 Hours For Rates So Far This Year While there...
a week ago
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a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Worst 24 Hours For Rates So Far This Year While there was certainly some volatility surrounding news headlines that were less than credible (specifically, that Trump was considering a 90 day pause on Tariffs), bonds maintained steady...
Musings on Markets
Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy! I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and...
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I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and as is my practice, I was checking the score on the Yankee game, when I read the tariff news announcement. Coming after a few days where the market seemed to have found its...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Thoughts on Trade in 2003 In 2003, Warren Buffett wrote an article with a proposal to address the trade deficit. It deserves...
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a week ago
In 2003, Warren Buffett wrote an article with a proposal to address the trade deficit. It deserves more attention in the current tariff debate.
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in March; Down 0.2% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Seasonal Decline in March...
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From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Seasonal Decline in March Despite Strong Market Demand Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in March compared to February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Financial Kessler Effect Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a...
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Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a high-speed projectile with the potential to disable any other part of the system it impacts. Complex systems can undergo what's known as phase shifts, where the state of the system...
The Diff
Finance as a Scale-Invariant Global Computer Plus! The Market; Supply and Demand; The March Continues; ETFs; Intellectual Property
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
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Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Now I am on recession watch, but still not yet predicting a...
Calculated Risk
Housing April 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
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Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 10.7% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 4% or 5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 Recession Watch Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures...
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Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 Recession Watch Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 200 and DOW futures are down 1,200 (fair value). WTI futures at $61.99 per barrel and Brent at $65.58 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $88, and Brent was at $93 -...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries...
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On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”. These tariffs will not work. In fact, they...
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
2 weeks ago
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From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail,...
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch I am going on "recession watch" for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I've been writing this...
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I am going on "recession watch" for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I've been writing this blog. In December 2022 I went on "recession watch", but I noted "My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession."  And the economy did avoid...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "54% of outstanding mortgage loans are under 4%" At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. FHFA’s...
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At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Freddie...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Plague, Manufacturing, FX, Agents, Trump, Surface Area, AI
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic...
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The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 8th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March. ----- Wednesday, April 9th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers...
Calculated Risk
April 4th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
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Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q...
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From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 4th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the...
oftwominds-Charles...
After the Tariff Earthquake The fires that have been ignited are not yet visible. There's a eerie calm after an...
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The fires that have been ignited are not yet visible. There's a eerie calm after an earthquake. Those trapped in collapsed buildings are aware of the consequences, but the majority experience a silence, as if the world stopped and has yet to restart. The full consequences...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected"', Expect "higher... From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a...
2 weeks ago
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From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in...
The Diff
What moves the Efficient Frontier Between PE and SaaS for Improving Small Companies' Financial... Plus! Reindustrialization as a Financial Engineering Problem; How the Tariffs Happened; Meanwhile,...
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Comments on March Employment Report The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and...
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The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined.   The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to...
Calculated Risk
March Employment Report: 228 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and...
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From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
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Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2025, including The Lessons of...
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This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2025, including The Lessons of History, American Journey, the works of Aristophanes, Plato, Xenophon, and more.
Calculated Risk
March Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for...
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On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 150k in March, slightly above consensus ... We estimate that the...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year (Easter Timing boosted YoY Occupancy) From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March On the positive side of the Easter calendar...
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From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March On the positive side of the Easter calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported increases across the key performance metrics, according to CoStar’s latest data through 29 March. ... 23-29 March 2025 (percentage change from...
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief...
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Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow • Home price growth is beginning to cool as modestly improved demand is running up against higher levels of inventory across most major...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50.8% in March; Employment Index Declined Sharply (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.8%, down from 53.5% last month. The...
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(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.8%, down from 53.5% last month. The employment index decreased to 46.2%, from 53.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 50.8% March 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
The Diff
Tariffs and Currencies Plus! Interfaces; Surface Area; AI's Jobs Impact; Capacity; Capacity, Continued
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit decreased to $122.7 Billion in February The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
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The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $122.7 billion in February, down $8.0 billion from $130.7 billion in January, revised. . ...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the...
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The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 224,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Services Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
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Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week. Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The...
Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 47 States in January (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in...
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From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 92. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 35 states, decreased in nine states, and...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome....
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There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome. Okay, players: jokers are wild, but with a twist: the entire deck is jokers. Since everyone at the table will have five Aces, nobody wins. Welcome to the Trade War Poker...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in March: Lowest since May 2020 This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March...
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This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to...
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate...
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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Q1 Moody’s CRE Preliminary Trend Analysis The national multifamily market has...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 155,000 in March From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in...
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From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in March; Annual Pay was Up 4.6% “Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
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From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28,...
Moneyness
Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use...
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Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use decentralized databases like Ethereum and Tron to run their platforms. Secondly, and more important for the purposes of this article, they grant access to almost anyone, no questions...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
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Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from...
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales "Surge" to 17.8 million SAAR in March Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales...
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Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge in Preemptive Move to Potential Tariff-Based Price Increases (pay site). March sales were proof that U.S. consumers are very much paying attention to tariffs, as demand on a...
Calculated Risk
Economic Tailwinds and Headwinds After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were...
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After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign. See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full.  I...
The Diff
eToro: Twitch Plays the Market Plus! OpenAI; Open AI; Supply Chains and Self-Tariffing; Surface Area; Secrets
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in February From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
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From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during February 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,195.8 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised January estimate of $2,179.9 billion. The February figure...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 49.0% in March (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 49.0%...
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(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 49.0% in March, down from 50.3% in February. The employment index was at 44.7%, down from 47.6% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 45.2%, down from 48.6%. Manufacturing...
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in February From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
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From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively....
Commoncog
How to Become an Asian Tycoon Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half...
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Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half the battle.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly...
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From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70%...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
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2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
oftwominds-Charles...
Why the Global Recession Will be Deeper and Longer Than Pundits Anticipate The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two...
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The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two decades of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization anticipate. While everyone focuses on conflicts between nations, few look at the problems shared by nations. Richard...
The Diff
"Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question Plus! Solve for X + X; Refactoring; AI and Distribution; How Models Think; The AI Business Model
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
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2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Calculated Risk
Housing March 31st Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 30.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
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Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 8.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The...
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Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for...
Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge...
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3 weeks ago
Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
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At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Fannie and Freddie:...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Jobs, Nobels, AI, Magazines, Worms, Complements
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell...
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The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday. ----- Monday, March 31st ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in...
Calculated Risk
March 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February; Multi-Family... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.61%, unchanged from 0.61% January. Freddie's rate is up...
Citation Needed
Issue 80 – Aimed at benefiting the digital assets industry As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions...
3 weeks ago
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As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions himself for maximum personal profit
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1% From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to...
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From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 27th...
The Diff
IP Protection in the Era of Fast Copying and Watermark Removal Plus! Data and Outsourcing CoreWeave Fraud Realignment Local AI
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.3% YoY in February Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
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Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased...
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The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 29.2% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
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What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.0% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
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3 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 March. ... 16-22 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 66.0% (+1.0%) emphasis...
oftwominds-Charles...
Ultra-Processed Life Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the...
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Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the destruction and derangement of an Ultra-Processed Life. The digital realm, finance, and junk food have something in common: they're all ultra-processed, synthetic versions of...
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.4% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the January Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
The Diff
StubHub: Market-Making in a Maximally-Heterogeneous Asset Class Plus! Lobbying Through Products; Models; Digital Assets; Skill Levels; Risk Premia
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.0% in February; Down 3.6% YoY From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February Pending home sales improved 2.0% in...
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From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February Pending home sales improved 2.0% in February according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with a larger decrease in the West – while the...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Revised up to 2.4% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry,...
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3 weeks ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 weeks ago
12
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third...
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 15% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 weeks ago
13
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 weeks ago
11
3 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 21,...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Durable Goods Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 weeks ago
27
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.
Calculated Risk
March Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 16.6 million SAAR, Up 5.9% YoY From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content). ...
3 weeks ago
13
3 weeks ago
From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Deliveries appear to have accelerated sharply in the middle of the month, creating momentum that could cause sales to overshoot the forecast. Conversely, overall...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. The previous three months were...
The Diff
The Two-Sided Uncertainty Tax Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free...
3 weeks ago
12
3 weeks ago
Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free Trade; Private and Public
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
3 weeks ago
11
3 weeks ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in February 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices)....
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 4.1% Annual Gain in January 2025 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, New Home Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
3 weeks ago
11
3 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The average mortgage lender raised rates modestly on Monday morning--a logical move considering the weakness in the bond market over the weekend. Rates are based directly on bonds. Bond...
Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel up 3% YoY This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of March 23, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Air travel is up about 2.6% YoY.
Calculated Risk
Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook I started the...
3 weeks ago
11
3 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook I started the year taking Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s approach to the impact of policy: I’d wait to see what was implemented before changing my outlook. Altos Research put out an updated inventory...
The Diff
There's More Than One Efficient Market Paradox Plus! Reciprocal Tariffs; AI Purgatory; Payments and Credit; LinkedInFluencers; Efficient Markets
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Housing March 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 30.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
3 weeks ago
13
3 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 7.0% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing seasonally. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 25 and DOW futures are up 160 (fair value). WTI futures at $68.28 per barrel and Brent at...
Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR:...
4 weeks ago
12
4 weeks ago
Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY, I noted: On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 1.3% from January and are now down 6.7% from...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
4 weeks ago
12
4 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Archiving, Externalities, OpenAI, 2024, Abundance, Hiring, The Dollar
4 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP,...
4 weeks ago
13
4 weeks ago
The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP, February Personal Income & Outlays, and January Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, March 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a...
Calculated Risk
March 21st COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 weeks ago
11
4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February" Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup...
4 weeks ago
11
4 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February" This is a short note … How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? What will happen with house prices in...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans...
4 weeks ago
15
4 weeks ago
From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans International travel to the United States is expected to slide by 5 percent this year, contributing to a $64 billion shortfall for the travel industry, according to Tourism Economics. The...
oftwominds-Charles...
POD People 2025 In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New...
a month ago
13
a month ago
In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New Normal. In the cultural zeitgeist, the term Pod People refers to the novel and film franchise Invasion of the Body Snatchers, in which nomadic aliens reach Earth and spawn...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous...
a month ago
11
a month ago
NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous adjustment, it appears GDPNow (adjusted) is slightly positive for Q1. (For more on the gold adjustment, see For GDP Forecasters, Some Gold Doesn't Glitter Our 1Q GDP tracking...
The Diff
Why do Stocks Only go up at Night? Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil Companies Want?
Calculated Risk
Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise with FHA Performance in the Spotlight • The national delinquency rate edged up 5 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in February; that’s up 19 bps from a year ago but still 32 bps below where...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 28.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
10
a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26...
a month ago
11
a month ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Sales in February (4.26 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from the previous month and were 1.2% below the February 2024 sales rate. This breaks the...
Citation Needed
Issue 79 – Mundus sine Caesaribus The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal...
a month ago
16
a month ago
The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal to its target demographic by bashing trans people
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the...
The Diff
Investors as Translators Plus! $44bn; Banks and Rates Trades; Connected Cows; Competing With AI; Recaps
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the...
a month ago
12
a month ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 750 from the previous...
Moneyness
Canadian banks as U.S. hostages? BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to...
a month ago
17
a month ago
BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to use "economic force" against Canada. In my previous post, I worried that one way this force could be wielded was through Canada's dangerous dependence on U.S.-controlled...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 220 thousand last week. Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for...
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: February Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. projections.   In December, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 3.875% at the end of 2025 (3.6%-4.1%) and the long run range was 2.8% to...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Economy of Denial: Addiction, Extortion, Deception Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the most opinionated become circumspect when the discussion turns to The Addiction Economy, for the term The Addiction Economy calls things by their real name, which disrupts our...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate; "Uncertainty Increased" Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. maintain the target range for the federal...
Calculated Risk
AIA: "Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI February 2025: Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.5 for the month,...
Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February;...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: Here are a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.21 million...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
11
a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 14, 2025....
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Statement Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Architecture Billings Index for February (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in January: Visitor Traffic Down 1.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Up YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Las Vegas started...
a month ago
16
a month ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Las Vegas started the year with January visitation of approx. 3.34M visitors, down 1.1% from last January. as Vegas convention attendance reached roughly 629k in January, up 12.8% YoY, supported in...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February; Length of Time from... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in February were above expectations; however, starts in December and January were revised down slightly, combined. Total...
The Diff
MNTN Scales the Small-Scale Advertiser Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily Rebundling; Competing for Capital
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in February From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
a month ago
11
a month ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in February after moving up 0.3 percent in January. Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent, boosted by a jump of 8.5 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,501,000. This is 11.2 percent above the revised January estimate of 1,350,000, but is 2.9 percent below the February 2024 rate of 1,546,000. Single-family housing...
Commoncog
How Reliance Won How the Ambanis became the richest family in Asia. This is the third case on the rise of a tycoon,...
a month ago
16
a month ago
How the Ambanis became the richest family in Asia. This is the third case on the rise of a tycoon, and the last one before we start talking about the core pattern in all of these Asian Tycoon’s lives. Part 6 in the Asian Conglomerate Series.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for February. The consensus is for 1.383 million SAAR, up from 1.366 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February. The consensus is a 0.3% increase in...
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.38% in February From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.38% in February The...
a month ago
10
a month ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.38% in February The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.40% of servicers’...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February; Recent Rent Trends at Two Large Publicly Traded Companies in the Single-Family Rental Business A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release February Existing Home sales on Thursday, March 20th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 4.08 million...
oftwominds-Charles...
Here Come the Chaos Monkeys The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload,...
a month ago
16
a month ago
The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins. Chaos Monkeys excel at distraction and extortion. They appear suddenly, leaping about in disorienting mayhem,...
The Diff
Klarna and the Two Pivots of 2022 Plus! Diff Jobs; Crypto Adoption; Art Margin Calls; Liquidations; Corporate Espionage; DeepSeek
a month ago
Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty" in March The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39,...
a month ago
10
a month ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, down from 42 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty Economic...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in February On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and...
a month ago
10
a month ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.1 percent from February 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Calculated Risk
Housing March 17th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 29.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
a month ago
9
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 5.0% from the seasonal bottom nine weeks ago in January and us starting to increase seasonally. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
Calculated Risk
Monday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025 FOMC Preview Retail sales for February is scheduled to...
a month ago
11
a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025 FOMC Preview Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in retail sales. Empire State manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of -2.0, down from 5.7. NAHB...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action DECIDE D - Determine the Bottleneck E - Engage with the subject matter C - Clear distractions I -...
a month ago
17
a month ago
DECIDE D - Determine the Bottleneck E - Engage with the subject matter C - Clear distractions I - Implement mental models D - Decide how to proceed E - Execute next steps When you’re traveling or waiting for something to happen, instead of listening to a podcast or scrolling on...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in June, and another cut later in the...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2025 Proxy Statement Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development given Warren Buffett's prior statements.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. The "Home...
a month ago
12
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Part 2: Current State of the...
Musings on Markets
Investing Politics: Globalization Backlash and Government Disruption! I will start with a couple of confessions. The first is that I see the world in shades of gray, and...
a month ago
21
a month ago
I will start with a couple of confessions. The first is that I see the world in shades of gray, and in a world where more and more people see only black and white, that makes me an outlier. Thus, if you are reading this post expecting me to post a diatribe or a tribute to Trump,...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Equity Nation, Hansa, Commodities, DOGE, LLMS, Recessions, AI, Rhodes, The GFC
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025 The key reports this week are February Retail sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. -----...
a month ago
13
a month ago
The key reports this week are February Retail sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, March 17th ----- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in retail sales. Empire State manufacturing survey...
FIRE v London
Feb ’25: The top comes off What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding...
a month ago
19
a month ago
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it. From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened What’s going on with me? My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city...
Calculated Risk
March 14th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore,...
a month ago
22
a month ago
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore, because it's made in the U.S. by Kellogg's. But I'm still buying Shreddies, which is made in Niagara Falls, Ontario. Even that's a grey area, since Shreddies is owned by Post, a big...
The Rational Walk
Buffett & Munger Unscripted A new book by Alex Morris distills key insights and wisdom from three decades of Berkshire Hathaway...
a month ago
23
a month ago
A new book by Alex Morris distills key insights and wisdom from three decades of Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings.
Citation Needed
“Wait, not like that”: Free and open access in the age of generative AI The real threat isn’t AI using open knowledge — it’s AI companies killing the projects that make...
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down two tenths to 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Mar 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.3% last week. [Mar...
The Diff
Deals and Hype Trades Plus! AI Models and Comparative Advantage; Proprietary Data; AI and Incentives; The Neoteny...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Plus! AI Models and Comparative Advantage; Proprietary Data; AI and Incentives; The Neoteny Business; Substitution
Calculated Risk
Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: This entire housing cycle I’ve argued that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the...
Commoncog
Speedrunning the Skill of Demand How to get better, faster at the skill of uncovering demand, which underpins the skill domains of...
a month ago
18
a month ago
How to get better, faster at the skill of uncovering demand, which underpins the skill domains of sales, marketing, and product.
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.8% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
12
a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
oftwominds-Charles...
Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New...
a month ago
16
a month ago
The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New Roaring 20s of exhilarating expansion, or will we suffer a Great Depression 2.0? Gordon Long and I explore this binary in our latest podcast. Why is the next decade a binary of...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023...
a month ago
15
a month ago
This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023 were: “We've already started the process of where that capacity is coming out.  A lot of it transborder, big drop in Canadian traffic to go into the U.S.”. This could impact hotel occupancy...
Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 A brief...
a month ago
11
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $0.2 Trillion in Q4 The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
a month ago
14
a month ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $169.4 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities...
The Diff
Central Banks and the Guidance Paradox Plus! Crowded Trades; CoreWeave; The Bots; Accounting; Political Meme Stocks
a month ago
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: 1.1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024 From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Nationwide, borrower equity increased by $281.9 billion, or 1.7% year-over-year. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the...
a month ago
13
a month ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 221,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q4 Flow of Funds Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 221 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in February The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
a month ago
12
a month ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down from 3.6% YoY in January), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (unchanged from 3.1%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.1% YoY as...
a month ago
11
a month ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.1% YoY as of February 2025, down from 4.2% YoY in January. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in February; Core CPI increased 0.2% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 7,...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
11
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Some Observations on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Wind-Down and Reinvestment... From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on table for larger image. Given the significant declines...
a month ago
11
a month ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on table for larger image. Given the significant declines in Federal Reserve holdings of Treasuries and Agency MBS since early 2022, the uninformed (such as Treasury Secretary Bessent) might conclude that the Federal Reserve has been a big...
Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a...
a month ago
11
a month ago
The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. We forecast a 0.29% increase...
Citation Needed
Crypto reserves: no public good, no principles The formerly anti-government bitcoin movement abandons its principles in favor of number-go-up,...
a month ago
22
a month ago
The formerly anti-government bitcoin movement abandons its principles in favor of number-go-up, applauds federal plan to stockpile seized crypto with no clear benefit to national interest
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
The Diff
Will There Ever be a Company-Killing Hack? Plus! Divided Attention; Demand; Buying Low?; The Stuff Tax; Mispriced Derivatives
a month ago
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.7 million in January From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
a month ago
15
a month ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.3 million. Within...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds are once again paying attention to weakness in stocks--it just happened to take a bigger drop in stocks that we saw last week. Despite the improvement in rates, we would still...
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in February, Intermodal Up From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Uncertainty shapes economic cycles — fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry...
oftwominds-Charles...
Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We...
a month ago
21
a month ago
We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We inhabit an Addiction Economy. We all know the cure for addiction is to go Cold Turkey: drop the denial and delusion of control, and excise the source of the addiction from one's...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale. Currently I’m watching...
The Diff
Text and Telos Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate Structure; DeepSeek Governance
Calculated Risk
Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.9% from the seasonal bottom eight weeks ago in January and should start increasing significantly in the Spring. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 48 and DOW futures are down 294 (fair value). WTI futures at $67.04 per barrel and Brent at $70.36 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $84 - so WTI oil prices...
Mazdak
Manus: The AI Agent That Could Change Everything On March 6, the global AI landscape shifted.
a month ago
Mazdak
How Public Company Executives Borrow Against Their Shares to Defer Taxes For ultra-wealthy individuals and executives of public companies, borrowing against their shares is...
a month ago
20
a month ago
For ultra-wealthy individuals and executives of public companies, borrowing against their shares is a powerful financial strategy.
Calculated Risk
Poor Weather Reduced Employment Slightly in February The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February.   During the Winter months, I...
a month ago
15
a month ago
The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 404 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. ...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE...
a month ago
14
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January 1st Look at Local Housing...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade,...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade, Karp
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases...
a month ago
18
a month ago
The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, March 11th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the...
Calculated Risk
March 7th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal. At the Federal Reserve, we are intently focused on the...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the imported gold will show up in inventories. GDPNow will correct for this once the gold is included as an increase in inventories, but currently GDPNow just included the import side. ...
The Diff
Two Kinds of News Business Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Comments on February Employment Report The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and...
a month ago
13
a month ago
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to...
Calculated Risk
February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February,...
a month ago
15
a month ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities,...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for February.   The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At The...
Calculated Risk
February Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is...
a month ago
13
a month ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 170k in February, slightly above consensus of +160k but below...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
The Diff
The CoreWeave Triangle Plus! Gimmicks; Correlations; Continuous Search; Re-Emerging Markets; Tax Incidence
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
a month ago
13
a month ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. ...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a month ago
14
a month ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 234 initial claims down from 242 thousand last week. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for January...
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased 3.3% Year-over-year in January Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for December. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Largely Flat in January U.S. home price...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism! In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
a month ago
22
a month ago
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly" Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Stoicism of the Caregiver These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of...
a month ago
20
a month ago
These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of caregiving don't get much attention. They're not part of the news flow, and the day-to-day grind of caregiving doesn't lend itself to the self-promotional zeitgeist of social media....
Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
a month ago
30
a month ago
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The...
a month ago
14
a month ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The employment index increased to 53.9%, from 52.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 53.5% February 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
15
a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28,...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February,...
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
a month ago
13
a month ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
a month ago
15
a month ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 460 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Mazdak
Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational...
a month ago
24
a month ago
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational assistants—Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Although both are built on large language models, they diverge sharply in design philosophy, technical implementation, safety...
The Diff
PE: Cycles and One-Off Events Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January; Fannie Mae... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.61%, up from 0.59% December. Freddie's rate is up...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While As the table shows, Federal Reserve net income was substantially negative in 2023 and 2024, with a combined net loss in these two years of almost $200...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Tariffs! From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Over The...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Over The Weekend Mortgage rates faced a very small threat of a very small increase this morning. The underlying bond market was in weaker territory to start the day and that typically means mortgage...
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability Headwind, U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 3.4% in February (pay site). Continuing January’s trend, market strength was at the two far ends of the affordability scale, as entry-price cars...
Calculated Risk
A Comment on GDPNow On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed...
a month ago
15
a month ago
On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed went strongly negative in the most recent reading: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on...
oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On? Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
a month ago
21
a month ago
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some clues that are worth considering.
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
a month ago
15
a month ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure...
The Diff
AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk Management; Diff Jobs
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3%...
a month ago
15
a month ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3% in February, down from 50.9% in January. The employment index was at 47.6%, down from 50.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.6%, down from...