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The Diff
eToro: Twitch Plays the Market Plus! OpenAI; Open AI; Supply Chains and Self-Tariffing; Surface Area; Secrets
2 hours ago
1

eToro: Twitch Plays the Market

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 hours ago
Plus! OpenAI; Open AI; Supply Chains and Self-Tariffing; Surface Area; Secrets
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Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in February From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
2 hours ago
1

Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 hours ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during February 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,195.8 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised January estimate of $2,179.9 billion. The February figure...
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 49.0% in March (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 49.0%...
3 hours ago
1

ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 49.0% in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 hours ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 49.0% in March, down from 50.3% in February. The employment index was at 44.7%, down from 47.6% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 45.2%, down from 48.6%. Manufacturing...
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Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in February From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
3 hours ago
1

BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 hours ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively....
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Commoncog
How to Become an Asian Tycoon Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half...
12 hours ago
2

How to Become an Asian Tycoon

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

12 hours ago
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half the battle.
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly...
17 hours ago
1

Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

17 hours ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70%...
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Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
22 hours ago
2

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

22 hours ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Why the Global Recession Will be Deeper and Longer Than Pundits Anticipate The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two...
23 hours ago
2

Why the Global Recession Will be Deeper and Longer Than Pundits Anticipate

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

23 hours ago
The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two decades of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization anticipate. While everyone focuses on conflicts between nations, few look at the problems shared by nations. Richard...
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The Diff
"Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question Plus! Solve for X + X; Refactoring; AI and Distribution; How Models Think; The AI Business Model
yesterday
2

"Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

yesterday
Plus! Solve for X + X; Refactoring; AI and Distribution; How Models Think; The AI Business Model
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Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
yesterday
2

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

yesterday
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
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Calculated Risk
Housing March 31st Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 30.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
yesterday
2

Housing March 31st Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 30.6% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

yesterday
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 8.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for...
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Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The...
2 days ago
2

Sunday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for...
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Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge...
2 days ago
3

A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
3 days ago
3

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Fannie and Freddie:...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Jobs, Nobels, AI, Magazines, Worms, Complements
3 days ago
4

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Jobs, Nobels, AI, Magazines, Worms, Complements
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell...
3 days ago
4

Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday. ----- Monday, March 31st ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in...
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Calculated Risk
March 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 days ago
3

March 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February; Multi-Family... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
4 days ago
5

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February; Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Equals Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic)

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.61%, unchanged from 0.61% January. Freddie's rate is up...
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Citation Needed
Issue 80 – Aimed at benefiting the digital assets industry As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions...
4 days ago
8

Issue 80 – Aimed at benefiting the digital assets industry

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions himself for maximum personal profit
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1% From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to...
4 days ago
4

Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 27th...
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The Diff
IP Protection in the Era of Fast Copying and Watermark Removal Plus! Data and Outsourcing CoreWeave Fraud Realignment Local AI
4 days ago
3

IP Protection in the Era of Fast Copying and Watermark Removal

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Plus! Data and Outsourcing CoreWeave Fraud Realignment Local AI
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Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.3% YoY in February Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
4 days ago
4

PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.3% YoY in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
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Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased...
4 days ago
3

Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
4 days ago
4

Friday: Personal Income & Outlays

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 29.2% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
5 days ago
4

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 29.2% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.0% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
5 days ago
5

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.0% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 March. ... 16-22 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 66.0% (+1.0%) emphasis...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Ultra-Processed Life Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the...
5 days ago
9

Ultra-Processed Life

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the destruction and derangement of an Ultra-Processed Life. The digital realm, finance, and junk food have something in common: they're all ultra-processed, synthetic versions of...
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Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.4% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below...
5 days ago
4

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.4% below 2022 peak

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the January Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
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The Diff
StubHub: Market-Making in a Maximally-Heterogeneous Asset Class Plus! Lobbying Through Products; Models; Digital Assets; Skill Levels; Risk Premia
5 days ago
6

StubHub: Market-Making in a Maximally-Heterogeneous Asset Class

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Plus! Lobbying Through Products; Models; Digital Assets; Skill Levels; Risk Premia
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.0% in February; Down 3.6% YoY From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February Pending home sales improved 2.0% in...
5 days ago
5

NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.0% in February; Down 3.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February Pending home sales improved 2.0% in February according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with a larger decrease in the West – while the...
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Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Revised up to 2.4% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry,...
5 days ago
4

Q4 GDP Growth Revised up to 2.4% Annual Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
5 days ago
4

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
6 days ago
4

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third...
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Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 15% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
6 days ago
3

Update: Lumber Prices Up 15% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
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Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
6 days ago
5

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
6 days ago
4

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 21,...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Durable Goods Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a week ago
15

Wednesday: Durable Goods

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.
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Calculated Risk
March Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 16.6 million SAAR, Up 5.9% YoY From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content). ...
a week ago
6

March Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 16.6 million SAAR, Up 5.9% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Deliveries appear to have accelerated sharply in the middle of the month, creating momentum that could cause sales to overshoot the forecast. Conversely, overall...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate...
a week ago
5

Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. The previous three months were...
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The Diff
The Two-Sided Uncertainty Tax Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free...
a week ago
6

The Two-Sided Uncertainty Tax

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free Trade; Private and Public
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Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
a week ago
6

New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in February 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
a week ago
5

Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices)....
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Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average...
a week ago
5

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 4.1% Annual Gain in January 2025 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, New Home Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
a week ago
5

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, New Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The average mortgage lender raised rates modestly on Monday morning--a logical move considering the weakness in the bond market over the weekend. Rates are based directly on bonds. Bond...
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Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel up 3% YoY This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from...
a week ago
4

TSA: Airline Travel up 3% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of March 23, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Air travel is up about 2.6% YoY.
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Calculated Risk
Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook I started the...
a week ago
5

Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook I started the year taking Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s approach to the impact of policy: I’d wait to see what was implemented before changing my outlook. Altos Research put out an updated inventory...
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The Diff
There's More Than One Efficient Market Paradox Plus! Reciprocal Tariffs; AI Purgatory; Payments and Credit; LinkedInFluencers; Efficient Markets
a week ago
7

There's More Than One Efficient Market Paradox

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Reciprocal Tariffs; AI Purgatory; Payments and Credit; LinkedInFluencers; Efficient Markets
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Calculated Risk
Housing March 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 30.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
a week ago
6

Housing March 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 30.3% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 7.0% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing seasonally. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on...
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Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This...
a week ago
6

Sunday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 25 and DOW futures are up 160 (fair value). WTI futures at $68.28 per barrel and Brent at...
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Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR:...
a week ago
7

The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY, I noted: On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 1.3% from January and are now down 6.7% from...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
a week ago
6

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Archiving, Externalities, OpenAI, 2024, Abundance, Hiring, The Dollar
a week ago
9

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Archiving, Externalities, OpenAI, 2024, Abundance, Hiring, The Dollar
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP,...
a week ago
9

Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP, February Personal Income & Outlays, and January Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, March 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a...
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Calculated Risk
March 21st COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
7

March 21st COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February" Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup...
a week ago
8

Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February" This is a short note … How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? What will happen with house prices in...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans...
a week ago
10

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans International travel to the United States is expected to slide by 5 percent this year, contributing to a $64 billion shortfall for the travel industry, according to Tourism Economics. The...
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oftwominds-Charles...
POD People 2025 In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New...
a week ago
8

POD People 2025

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New Normal. In the cultural zeitgeist, the term Pod People refers to the novel and film franchise Invasion of the Body Snatchers, in which nomadic aliens reach Earth and spawn...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous...
a week ago
7

Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous adjustment, it appears GDPNow (adjusted) is slightly positive for Q1. (For more on the gold adjustment, see For GDP Forecasters, Some Gold Doesn't Glitter Our 1Q GDP tracking...
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The Diff
Why do Stocks Only go up at Night? Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil...
a week ago
8

Why do Stocks Only go up at Night?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil Companies Want?
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Calculated Risk
Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise...
a week ago
8

Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise with FHA Performance in the Spotlight • The national delinquency rate edged up 5 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in February; that’s up 19 bps from a year ago but still 32 bps below where...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 28.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a week ago
7

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 28.5% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26...
a week ago
7

Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Sales in February (4.26 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from the previous month and were 1.2% below the February 2024 sales rate. This breaks the...
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Citation Needed
Issue 79 – Mundus sine Caesaribus The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal...
a week ago
11

Issue 79 – Mundus sine Caesaribus

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal to its target demographic by bashing trans people
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in...
a week ago
8

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the...
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The Diff
Investors as Translators Plus! $44bn; Banks and Rates Trades; Connected Cows; Competing With AI; Recaps
a week ago
9

Investors as Translators

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! $44bn; Banks and Rates Trades; Connected Cows; Competing With AI; Recaps
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the...
a week ago
8

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 750 from the previous...
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Moneyness
Canadian banks as U.S. hostages? BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to...
a week ago
11

Canadian banks as U.S. hostages?

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to use "economic force" against Canada. In my previous post, I worried that one way this force could be wielded was through Canada's dangerous dependence on U.S.-controlled...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a week ago
7

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 220 thousand last week. Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for...
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Calculated Risk
LA Ports: February Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
a week ago
6

LA Ports: February Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM...
a week ago
7

FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. projections.   In December, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 3.875% at the end of 2025 (3.6%-4.1%) and the long run range was 2.8% to...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Economy of Denial: Addiction, Extortion, Deception Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the...
a week ago
10

The Economy of Denial: Addiction, Extortion, Deception

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the most opinionated become circumspect when the discussion turns to The Addiction Economy, for the term The Addiction Economy calls things by their real name, which disrupts our...
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate; "Uncertainty Increased" Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
a week ago
7

FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate; "Uncertainty Increased"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. maintain the target range for the federal...
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Calculated Risk
AIA: "Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
a week ago
7

AIA: "Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI February 2025: Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.5 for the month,...
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Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February;...
a week ago
8

California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: Here are a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.21 million...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a week ago
7

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 14, 2025....
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Statement Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a week ago
7

Wednesday: FOMC Statement

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Architecture Billings Index for February (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this...
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Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in January: Visitor Traffic Down 1.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Up YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Las Vegas started...
a week ago
9

Las Vegas in January: Visitor Traffic Down 1.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Up YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Las Vegas started the year with January visitation of approx. 3.34M visitors, down 1.1% from last January. as Vegas convention attendance reached roughly 629k in January, up 12.8% YoY, supported in...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February; Length of Time from... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million...
2 weeks ago
7

Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February; Length of Time from Start to Completion Declined in 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in February were above expectations; however, starts in December and January were revised down slightly, combined. Total...
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The Diff
MNTN Scales the Small-Scale Advertiser Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily...
2 weeks ago
9

MNTN Scales the Small-Scale Advertiser

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily Rebundling; Competing for Capital
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Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in February From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
2 weeks ago
8

Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in February after moving up 0.3 percent in January. Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent, boosted by a jump of 8.5 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
2 weeks ago
8

Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,501,000. This is 11.2 percent above the revised January estimate of 1,350,000, but is 2.9 percent below the February 2024 rate of 1,546,000. Single-family housing...
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Commoncog
How Reliance Won How the Ambanis became the richest family in Asia. This is the third case on the rise of a tycoon,...
2 weeks ago
11

How Reliance Won

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
How the Ambanis became the richest family in Asia. This is the third case on the rise of a tycoon, and the last one before we start talking about the core pattern in all of these Asian Tycoon’s lives. Part 6 in the Asian Conglomerate Series.
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
2 weeks ago
9

Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for February. The consensus is for 1.383 million SAAR, up from 1.366 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February. The consensus is a 0.3% increase in...
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Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.38% in February From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.38% in February The...
2 weeks ago
7

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.38% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.38% in February The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.40% of servicers’...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
2 weeks ago
7

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February; Recent Rent Trends at Two Large Publicly Traded Companies in the Single-Family Rental Business A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted...
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Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 weeks ago
7

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release February Existing Home sales on Thursday, March 20th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 4.08 million...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Here Come the Chaos Monkeys The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload,...
2 weeks ago
10

Here Come the Chaos Monkeys

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins. Chaos Monkeys excel at distraction and extortion. They appear suddenly, leaping about in disorienting mayhem,...
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The Diff
Klarna and the Two Pivots of 2022 Plus! Diff Jobs; Crypto Adoption; Art Margin Calls; Liquidations; Corporate Espionage; DeepSeek
2 weeks ago
9

Klarna and the Two Pivots of 2022

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Crypto Adoption; Art Margin Calls; Liquidations; Corporate Espionage; DeepSeek
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Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty" in March The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39,...
2 weeks ago
6

NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty" in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, down from 42 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty Economic...
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Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in February On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and...
2 weeks ago
7

Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.1 percent from February 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
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Calculated Risk
Housing March 17th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 29.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
2 weeks ago
6

Housing March 17th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 29.3% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 5.0% from the seasonal bottom nine weeks ago in January and us starting to increase seasonally. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
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Calculated Risk
Monday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025 FOMC Preview Retail sales for February is scheduled to...
2 weeks ago
8

Monday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025 FOMC Preview Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in retail sales. Empire State manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of -2.0, down from 5.7. NAHB...
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Molson Hart's Blog -...
The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action DECIDE D - Determine the Bottleneck E - Engage with the subject matter C - Clear distractions I -...
2 weeks ago
12

The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action

from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
DECIDE D - Determine the Bottleneck E - Engage with the subject matter C - Clear distractions I - Implement mental models D - Decide how to proceed E - Execute next steps When you’re traveling or waiting for something to happen, instead of listening to a podcast or scrolling on...
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
2 weeks ago
8

FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in June, and another cut later in the...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2025 Proxy Statement Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development...
2 weeks ago
10

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2025 Proxy Statement

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development given Warren Buffett's prior statements.
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. The "Home...
2 weeks ago
7

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Part 2: Current State of the...
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Musings on Markets
Investing Politics: Globalization Backlash and Government Disruption! I will start with a couple of confessions. The first is that I see the world in shades of gray, and...
2 weeks ago
13

Investing Politics: Globalization Backlash and Government Disruption!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
I will start with a couple of confessions. The first is that I see the world in shades of gray, and in a world where more and more people see only black and white, that makes me an outlier. Thus, if you are reading this post expecting me to post a diatribe or a tribute to Trump,...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Equity Nation, Hansa, Commodities, DOGE, LLMS, Recessions, AI, Rhodes, The GFC
2 weeks ago
8

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Equity Nation, Hansa, Commodities, DOGE, LLMS, Recessions, AI, Rhodes, The GFC
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025 The key reports this week are February Retail sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. -----...
2 weeks ago
9

Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The key reports this week are February Retail sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, March 17th ----- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in retail sales. Empire State manufacturing survey...
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FIRE v London
Feb ’25: The top comes off What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding...
2 weeks ago
12

Feb ’25: The top comes off

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it. From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened What’s going on with me? My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city...
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Calculated Risk
March 14th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
8

March 14th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore,...
2 weeks ago
14

Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore, because it's made in the U.S. by Kellogg's. But I'm still buying Shreddies, which is made in Niagara Falls, Ontario. Even that's a grey area, since Shreddies is owned by Post, a big...
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The Rational Walk
Buffett & Munger Unscripted A new book by Alex Morris distills key insights and wisdom from three decades of Berkshire Hathaway...
2 weeks ago
13

Buffett & Munger Unscripted

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
A new book by Alex Morris distills key insights and wisdom from three decades of Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings.
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Citation Needed
“Wait, not like that”: Free and open access in the age of generative AI The real threat isn’t AI using open knowledge — it’s AI companies killing the projects that make...
2 weeks ago
10

“Wait, not like that”: Free and open access in the age of generative AI

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The real threat isn’t AI using open knowledge — it’s AI companies killing the projects that make knowledge free
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down...
2 weeks ago
8

Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down two tenths to 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Mar 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.3% last week. [Mar...
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The Diff
Deals and Hype Trades Plus! AI Models and Comparative Advantage; Proprietary Data; AI and Incentives; The Neoteny...
2 weeks ago
10

Deals and Hype Trades

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! AI Models and Comparative Advantage; Proprietary Data; AI and Incentives; The Neoteny Business; Substitution
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Calculated Risk
Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
2 weeks ago
9

Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: This entire housing cycle I’ve argued that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the...
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Commoncog
Speedrunning the Skill of Demand How to get better, faster at the skill of uncovering demand, which underpins the skill domains of...
2 weeks ago
12

Speedrunning the Skill of Demand

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
How to get better, faster at the skill of uncovering demand, which underpins the skill domains of sales, marketing, and product.
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.8% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 weeks ago
7

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.8% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New...
2 weeks ago
11

Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New Roaring 20s of exhilarating expansion, or will we suffer a Great Depression 2.0? Gordon Long and I explore this binary in our latest podcast. Why is the next decade a binary of...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023...
2 weeks ago
9

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023 were: “We've already started the process of where that capacity is coming out.  A lot of it transborder, big drop in Canadian traffic to go into the U.S.”. This could impact hotel occupancy...
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Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 A brief...
2 weeks ago
7

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
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Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $0.2 Trillion in Q4 The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
2 weeks ago
9

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $0.2 Trillion in Q4

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $169.4 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities...
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The Diff
Central Banks and the Guidance Paradox Plus! Crowded Trades; CoreWeave; The Bots; Accounting; Political Meme Stocks
2 weeks ago
8

Central Banks and the Guidance Paradox

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Crowded Trades; CoreWeave; The Bots; Accounting; Political Meme Stocks
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Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: 1.1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024 From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity...
2 weeks ago
8

CoreLogic: 1.1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Nationwide, borrower equity increased by $281.9 billion, or 1.7% year-over-year. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the...
2 weeks ago
9

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 221,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q4 Flow of Funds Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 weeks ago
8

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q4 Flow of Funds

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 221 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus...
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Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
2 weeks ago
9

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
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Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in February The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
2 weeks ago
7

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down from 3.6% YoY in January), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (unchanged from 3.1%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
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Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.1% YoY as...
2 weeks ago
8

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.1% YoY as of February 2025, down from 4.2% YoY in January. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
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Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in February; Core CPI increased 0.2% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a...
2 weeks ago
8

BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in February; Core CPI increased 0.2%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 weeks ago
9

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 7,...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
2 weeks ago
9

Wednesday: CPI

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Some Observations on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Wind-Down and Reinvestment... From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on table for larger image. Given the significant declines...
2 weeks ago
7

Lawler: Some Observations on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Wind-Down and Reinvestment “Strategy” (Still in Quantitative Easing Mode, Just Less So)

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on table for larger image. Given the significant declines in Federal Reserve holdings of Treasuries and Agency MBS since early 2022, the uninformed (such as Treasury Secretary Bessent) might conclude that the Federal Reserve has been a big...
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Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a...
2 weeks ago
7

CPI Preview

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. We forecast a 0.29% increase...
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Citation Needed
Crypto reserves: no public good, no principles The formerly anti-government bitcoin movement abandons its principles in favor of number-go-up,...
3 weeks ago
16

Crypto reserves: no public good, no principles

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The formerly anti-government bitcoin movement abandons its principles in favor of number-go-up, applauds federal plan to stockpile seized crypto with no clear benefit to national interest
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Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 weeks ago
8

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
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The Diff
Will There Ever be a Company-Killing Hack? Plus! Divided Attention; Demand; Buying Low?; The Stuff Tax; Mispriced Derivatives
3 weeks ago
9

Will There Ever be a Company-Killing Hack?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Divided Attention; Demand; Buying Low?; The Stuff Tax; Mispriced Derivatives
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Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.7 million in January From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
3 weeks ago
10

BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.7 million in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.3 million. Within...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds...
3 weeks ago
10

Tuesday: Job Openings

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds are once again paying attention to weakness in stocks--it just happened to take a bigger drop in stocks that we saw last week. Despite the improvement in rates, we would still...
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Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in February, Intermodal Up From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
3 weeks ago
9

AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in February, Intermodal Up

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Uncertainty shapes economic cycles — fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We...
3 weeks ago
16

Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We inhabit an Addiction Economy. We all know the cure for addiction is to go Cold Turkey: drop the denial and delusion of control, and excise the source of the addiction from one's...
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Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
3 weeks ago
10

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale. Currently I’m watching...
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The Diff
Text and Telos Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate...
3 weeks ago
10

Text and Telos

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate Structure; DeepSeek Governance
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Calculated Risk
Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
3 weeks ago
10

Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.9% from the seasonal bottom eight weeks ago in January and should start increasing significantly in the Spring. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
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Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down...
3 weeks ago
10

Sunday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 48 and DOW futures are down 294 (fair value). WTI futures at $67.04 per barrel and Brent at $70.36 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $84 - so WTI oil prices...
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Mazdak
Manus: The AI Agent That Could Change Everything On March 6, the global AI landscape shifted.
3 weeks ago
11

Manus: The AI Agent That Could Change Everything

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
On March 6, the global AI landscape shifted.
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Mazdak
How Public Company Executives Borrow Against Their Shares to Defer Taxes For ultra-wealthy individuals and executives of public companies, borrowing against their shares is...
3 weeks ago
15

How Public Company Executives Borrow Against Their Shares to Defer Taxes

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
For ultra-wealthy individuals and executives of public companies, borrowing against their shares is a powerful financial strategy.
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Calculated Risk
Poor Weather Reduced Employment Slightly in February The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February.   During the Winter months, I...
3 weeks ago
11

Poor Weather Reduced Employment Slightly in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 404 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. ...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE...
3 weeks ago
10

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January 1st Look at Local Housing...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade,...
3 weeks ago
13

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade, Karp
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases...
3 weeks ago
11

Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, March 11th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the...
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Calculated Risk
March 7th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
9

March 7th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale...
3 weeks ago
11

Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which...
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Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
3 weeks ago
10

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9...
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Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy...
3 weeks ago
10

Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal. At the Federal Reserve, we are intently focused on the...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the...
3 weeks ago
9

Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the imported gold will show up in inventories. GDPNow will correct for this once the gold is included as an increase in inventories, but currently GDPNow just included the import side. ...
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The Diff
Two Kinds of News Business Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
3 weeks ago
11

Two Kinds of News Business

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
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Calculated Risk
Comments on February Employment Report The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and...
3 weeks ago
9

Comments on February Employment Report

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to...
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Calculated Risk
February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February,...
3 weeks ago
11

February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities,...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
3 weeks ago
10

Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for February.   The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At The...
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Calculated Risk
February Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is...
3 weeks ago
10

February Employment Preview

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 170k in February, slightly above consensus of +160k but below...
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Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 weeks ago
10

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
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The Diff
The CoreWeave Triangle Plus! Gimmicks; Correlations; Continuous Search; Re-Emerging Markets; Tax Incidence
3 weeks ago
12

The CoreWeave Triangle

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Gimmicks; Correlations; Continuous Search; Re-Emerging Markets; Tax Incidence
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Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
3 weeks ago
11

Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. ...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 weeks ago
11

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 weeks ago
9

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 234 initial claims down from 242 thousand last week. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for January...
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Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased 3.3% Year-over-year in January Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index...
3 weeks ago
10

CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased 3.3% Year-over-year in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for December. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Largely Flat in January U.S. home price...
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism! In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
3 weeks ago
17

Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
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Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly" Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported...
3 weeks ago
9

Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Stoicism of the Caregiver These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of...
3 weeks ago
14

The Stoicism of the Caregiver

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of caregiving don't get much attention. They're not part of the news flow, and the day-to-day grind of caregiving doesn't lend itself to the self-promotional zeitgeist of social media....
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Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
3 weeks ago
22

Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
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Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
3 weeks ago
10

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The...
3 weeks ago
10

ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The employment index increased to 53.9%, from 52.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 53.5% February 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
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Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
3 weeks ago
10

ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 weeks ago
11

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28,...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 weeks ago
11

Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February,...
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Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
3 weeks ago
9

Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
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Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
3 weeks ago
11

Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 460 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
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Mazdak
Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational...
3 weeks ago
19

Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational assistants—Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Although both are built on large language models, they diverge sharply in design philosophy, technical implementation, safety...
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The Diff
PE: Cycles and One-Off Events Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
4 weeks ago
12

PE: Cycles and One-Off Events

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
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Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January; Fannie Mae... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
4 weeks ago
11

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January; Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic)

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.61%, up from 0.59% December. Freddie's rate is up...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances...
4 weeks ago
10

Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While As the table shows, Federal Reserve net income was substantially negative in 2023 and 2024, with a combined net loss in these two years of almost $200...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Tariffs! From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Over The...
4 weeks ago
10

Tuesday: Tariffs!

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Over The Weekend Mortgage rates faced a very small threat of a very small increase this morning. The underlying bond market was in weaker territory to start the day and that typically means mortgage...
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Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability...
4 weeks ago
10

Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability Headwind, U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 3.4% in February (pay site). Continuing January’s trend, market strength was at the two far ends of the affordability scale, as entry-price cars...
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Calculated Risk
A Comment on GDPNow On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed...
4 weeks ago
11

A Comment on GDPNow

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed went strongly negative in the most recent reading: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on...
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oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On? Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
4 weeks ago
15

If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
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Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January...
4 weeks ago
10

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some...
4 weeks ago
14

Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some clues that are worth considering.
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Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
4 weeks ago
11

Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure...
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The Diff
AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk...
4 weeks ago
13

AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk Management; Diff Jobs
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3%...
4 weeks ago
11

ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3% in February, down from 50.9% in January. The employment index was at 47.6%, down from 50.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.6%, down from...
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Calculated Risk
Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
4 weeks ago
11

Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.4% from the seasonal bottom seven weeks ago in January and should start increasing seasonally in March. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family...
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Commoncog
Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators?...
4 weeks ago
17

Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators? We examine the career of one activist investor, to see what that tells us about the Asian tycoons we’ve been studying.
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Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
4 weeks ago
14

Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
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Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is...
4 weeks ago
11

Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. Light vehicle sales for...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
a month ago
12

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 February. ... 16-22 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 60.3%...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
a month ago
10

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Hackers, Safety, EBITDA, More Hackers, Feudalism, Randomness, CEOs
a month ago
13

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Hackers, Safety, EBITDA, More Hackers, Feudalism, Randomness, CEOs
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. ----- Monday, March 3rd...
a month ago
13

Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. ----- Monday, March 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for...
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Calculated Risk
February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
14

February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Moneyness
What do you do with memecoins? Apparently you collect them, says the SEC I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and...
a month ago
16

What do you do with memecoins? Apparently you collect them, says the SEC

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and thus come under the purview of securities regulators like the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Securities law is confusing. But what I do know is that the SEC's latest notion...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable...
a month ago
14

Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable speculative asset in the global financialization casino. It can't be both. We tend to think of housing becoming unaffordable as a matter of land prices, zoning and the cost of...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print...
a month ago
13

Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print and a tenth higher than our tracking estimate. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 28th] emphasis added From Goldman:...
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Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
a month ago
11

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.41% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
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The Diff
Running an Oil Major in a Not-Post-Hydrocarbon-Any-Time-Soon World Plus! Corporate VC; Hacking AI Moderation; Product Parity; Crypto Regulation; GPU Demand
a month ago
11

Running an Oil Major in a Not-Post-Hydrocarbon-Any-Time-Soon World

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Corporate VC; Hacking AI Moderation; Product Parity; Crypto Regulation; GPU Demand
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Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
a month ago
10

PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
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Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income...
a month ago
11

Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
a month ago
11

Friday: Personal Income & Outlays

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
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Mazdak
OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.5: Here’s Everything You Need to Know The AI race just got more interesting.
a month ago
13

OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.5: Here’s Everything You Need to Know

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The AI race just got more interesting.
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
11

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
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Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below...
a month ago
10

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
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The Diff
Amazon Wants AI Models Commoditized. Can They Make it Happen? Plus! Business and Editorial; The Other AI Growth Story; Getting Ahead of the Shift; Activist Shorts
a month ago
12

Amazon Wants AI Models Commoditized. Can They Make it Happen?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Business and Editorial; The Other AI Growth Story; Getting Ahead of the Shift; Activist Shorts
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low" From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in...
a month ago
10

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with the most significant drop in the South...
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Mazdak
Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of...
a month ago
13

Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of Ocelot, its first quantum chip, developed in collaboration with Caltech.
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Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross...
a month ago
12

Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S....
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the...
a month ago
13

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,000, an increase of 8,500 from the...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
11

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 225 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of...
a month ago
13

Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries “The Fed’s balance sheet runoff increases the supply of Treasuries. It’s easier for me to extend duration when I’m not competing with another big seller.” This statement...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Annual Report My thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual report and Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders.
a month ago
35

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Annual Report

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
My thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual report and Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders.
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oftwominds-Charles...
Housing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling Bottom line: with the loss of predictability, we've also lost any sense of future financial...
a month ago
15

Housing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Bottom line: with the loss of predictability, we've also lost any sense of future financial security. Home ownership has been the foundation of middle-class stability and security for so long that it defines middle-class status as much as income. From the end of World War...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate...
a month ago
11

Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. The previous three months were...
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Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)...
a month ago
11

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S....
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
11

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 21,...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: New Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
12

Wednesday: New Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is that new home sales decreased to 678 thousand SAAR, down from 698 thousand in December.
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Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed...
a month ago
11

A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of...
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Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased...
a month ago
13

FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased in 2024 Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persisted emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. From the FDIC: The...
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The Diff
When and How Will AI Offer People Search? Plus! Consumption Patterns; Training Data; Grift Confluence; Marketing and Piracy; Convergence
a month ago
15

When and How Will AI Offer People Search?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Consumption Patterns; Training Data; Grift Confluence; Marketing and Piracy; Convergence
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
a month ago
11

Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing...
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Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month...
a month ago
12

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in December 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage...
a month ago
13

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage rates were already in line with the lowest levels since December 18th by last Thursday. They dropped to the best levels since December 12th a day later. end of last week. 30 year...
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FIRE v London
Buy to let: RIP Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years. A bit of...
a month ago
22

Buy to let: RIP

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years. A bit of history I ended up with my Modern Flat in that common way that many ‘accidental’ landlords have. It was my first rung on the property ownership ladder. Until it was time to…...
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Calculated Risk
February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay...
a month ago
12

February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Sales are recording solid gains, but production slowdowns capping dealer stock in a growth market – a market that ostensibly still is climbing out of the...
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Mazdak
TikTok Becomes the First App to Reach $6 Billion in Annual Consumer Spending In 2024, the short-form video platform, along with its Chinese counterpart Douyin, became the first...
a month ago
15

TikTok Becomes the First App to Reach $6 Billion in Annual Consumer Spending

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
In 2024, the short-form video platform, along with its Chinese counterpart Douyin, became the first non-game app to generate $6 billion in annual consumer spending.
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Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR:...
a month ago
13

The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January, I mentioned that the median price typically bottoms seasonally in January (contracts signed mostly in November and December)...
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The Diff
Filling Out Forms is Corvée Labor Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex;...
a month ago
15

Filling Out Forms is Corvée Labor

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex; Bundling and Scale; Diff Jobs
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Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a month ago
15

Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.5% from the bottom six weeks ago in January. The first graph shows the seasonal...
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 8 for 2025: Debt, Taxes and Default - An Unholy Trifecta! There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of...
a month ago
19

Data Update 8 for 2025: Debt, Taxes and Default - An Unholy Trifecta!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of people and businesses, borrowing too much and then paying the price, but a special vitriol is reserved for the lenders, not the borrowers, for encouraging this behavior. At the same...
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Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National...
a month ago
15

Sunday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
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oftwominds-Charles...
When Markets Misbehave Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the...
a month ago
18

When Markets Misbehave

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Starts and Recessions This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading...
a month ago
16

Housing Starts and Recessions

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: “On a 12-month average basis, .. Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak .. Housing is the basis of one of my...
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Commoncog
Let’s Talk Corruption How to think about corruption when talking about Asian businesses. Part 4 of the Asian Conglomerate...
a month ago
20

Let’s Talk Corruption

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
How to think about corruption when talking about Asian businesses. Part 4 of the Asian Conglomerate series.
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Mazdak
Bybit’s $5.5 Billion Bank Run: A Turning Point for Crypto Security? In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, security is paramount.
a month ago
19

Bybit’s $5.5 Billion Bank Run: A Turning Point for Crypto Security?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, security is paramount.
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
a month ago
13

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Types, Ellison, AI, YouTube, Private Credit, Globalization, Lending, Huawei
a month ago
15

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Types, Ellison, AI, YouTube, Private Credit, Globalization, Lending, Huawei
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income...
a month ago
16

Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, February 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index...
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Calculated Risk
February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
15

February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050 By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the...
a month ago
19

Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the conglomerate likely.
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2% From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14....
a month ago
15

Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08...
a month ago
15

Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Sales in January (4.08 million SAAR) were down 4.9% from the previous month and were 2.0% above the January 2024 sales rate. This was the fourth consecutive...
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The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
a month ago
15

Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth...
a month ago
14

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the...
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Calculated Risk
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends;...
a month ago
13

ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends; Wildfire Delinquencies Emerge • Delinquencies fell 24 basis points (bps) to 3.47% in January; that’s 10 bps higher than last year, but 33 bps below pre-pandemic levels Foreclosure...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
a month ago
12

Friday: Existing Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
13

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to...
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Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in...
a month ago
15

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: Here a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.09 million...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Tax Benefits of Self-Employment Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth...
a month ago
18

The Tax Benefits of Self-Employment

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth understanding if you're exploring self-employment. It's tax preparation time, the secular equivalent of crawling around the temple on cobblestones littered with broken glass....
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The Diff
Don't Try to Build Another Berkshire Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody;...
a month ago
18

Don't Try to Build Another Berkshire

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody; Unwinding a Bubble
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Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Record Inbound Traffic for January This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some...
a month ago
15

LA Ports: Record Inbound Traffic for January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a month ago
13

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
13

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 216 thousand from 213 thousand last week. manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a...
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Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
a month ago
14

AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI January 2025: Architecture firm billings remain soft to start the new year The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.6 for the month, slightly above the...
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Mazdak
Microsoft Unveils Majorana 1: A Quantum Leap Towards the Future After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum...
a month ago
21

Microsoft Unveils Majorana 1: A Quantum Leap Towards the Future

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum processor—Majorana 1. This breakthrough has the potential to redefine the future of computing, promising industrial-scale problem-solving and scientific discovery at an unprecedented level.
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With...
a month ago
15

FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although progress could remain...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million...
a month ago
12

Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in January were below expectations; however, starts in November and December were revised up. Total starts were down 0.7%...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
a month ago
15

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,366,000. This is 9.8 percent below the revised December estimate of 1,515,000 and is 0.7 percent below the January 2024 rate of 1,376,000. Single-family housing starts in...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
15

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14,...
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Citation Needed
Issue 77 – Whenever presidents get involved, if they become angry, you don't want to be there A major crypto scandal tarnishes the reputation of Solana bigwigs, crypto influencers, and Argentine...
a month ago
16

Issue 77 – Whenever presidents get involved, if they become angry, you don't want to be there

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
A major crypto scandal tarnishes the reputation of Solana bigwigs, crypto influencers, and Argentine President Javier Milei.
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Citation Needed
Transcript of leaked call with Meteora’s Ben Chow A transcript of a leaked call between DefiTuna’s Moty Povolotski and Meteora’s Ben Chow
a month ago
20

Transcript of leaked call with Meteora’s Ben Chow

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
A transcript of a leaked call between DefiTuna’s Moty Povolotski and Meteora’s Ben Chow
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
16

Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Housing Starts for January. The consensus is for 1.394 million SAAR, down from 1.499 million SAAR. Architecture Billings Index for January (a leading...
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Musings on Markets
Return on Equity, Earnings Yield and Market Efficiency: Back to Basics! While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by...
a month ago
22

Return on Equity, Earnings Yield and Market Efficiency: Back to Basics!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by two events. The first was the response that I received to my last data update, where I looked at the profitability of businesses, and specifically at how a comparison of accounting...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Problem With Money Isn't Money The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core...
a month ago
21

The Problem With Money Isn't Money

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core economic problems is to return to sound money via either the gold standard, in which gold backs all currency, or by substituting bitcoin for gold, i.e. bitcoin becomes the coin of the...
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Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage...
a month ago
15

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers’ portfolio...
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Calculated Risk
The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for...
a month ago
16

The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates A brief excerpt: Housing economist Tom Lawler has written extensively on the neutral rate. He has argued that the neutral rate has increased back to...
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The Diff
The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
a month ago
18

The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
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Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns" in February The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42,...
a month ago
16

NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns" in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42, down from 47 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost...
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Moneyness
Ending the penny won't lead to more nickels Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable,...
a month ago
24

Ending the penny won't lead to more nickels

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable, costing 3.69 cents to produce each one. In response, the lobbyists that earn big profits from the ongoing existence of the penny have come out in full force with dubious arguments for...
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Commoncog
Outcome Orientation as a Cure for Information Overload A simple, effective — though not easy! — technique for solving information overload. Written from...
a month ago
21

Outcome Orientation as a Cure for Information Overload

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
A simple, effective — though not easy! — technique for solving information overload. Written from practice.
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The...
a month ago
17

Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of -1.0, up from -12.6. NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 47, unchanged from 47 the previous month. Any number below 50...
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Calculated Risk
President Washington's Farewell Address I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief...
a month ago
13

President Washington's Farewell Address

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief excerpt: To the efficacy and permanency of your Union, a Government for the whole is indispensable. No alliances, however strict, between the parts can be an adequate substitute; they...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
a month ago
15

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: There is much more in the article.
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Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.9% Week-over-week, Up 29.2% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a month ago
18

Housing Feb 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.9% Week-over-week, Up 29.2% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.2% from the bottom five weeks ago in January. The first graph shows the seasonal...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
a month ago
16

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 February. ... 2-8 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 55.9%...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
14

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.5% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to...
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FIRE v London
Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the...
a month ago
19

Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the so-called “Pakistani grooming gangs” scandal here in the UK, with Elon Musk weighing in. At the time it seemed remarkable but one month later, as I write this, I am pleased to say I can’t...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Q4 NY Fed...
a month ago
13

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Part 2:...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Education, Auto Theft, Optimizers, AI, Energy, Financial Engineering, Deep Research
a month ago
15

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Education, Auto Theft, Optimizers, AI, Energy, Financial Engineering, Deep Research
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February...
a month ago
17

Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February 17th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Washington's Birthday. ----- Tuesday, February 18th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey...
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Calculated Risk
February 14th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Moving Sideways Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
14

February 14th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Moving Sideways

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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The Rational Walk
Staying the Course It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the...
a month ago
18

Staying the Course

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the long run.
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From...
a month ago
15

Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s retail sales and industrial production reports, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Automation Institutionalizes Mediocrity Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as...
a month ago
18

Automation Institutionalizes Mediocrity

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as algorithmically-driven under-competence and mediocrity are now the norm. When deployed by monopolies / cartels, automation institutionalizes mediocrity, and soon everyone forgets...
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Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
a month ago
15

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in...
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The Diff
How Many Layers in the AI Stack? Plus! Scale; Outsourcing Capital; Closed-Loop Generative AI; The Perks of Market Power; Labor...
a month ago
16

How Many Layers in the AI Stack?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Scale; Outsourcing Capital; Closed-Loop Generative AI; The Perks of Market Power; Labor Markets
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Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in January From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
a month ago
14

Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.5 percent in January after moving up 1.0 percent in December. In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following...
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Citation Needed
The crypto industry’s debanking smokescreen Cryptocurrency companies have co-opted legitimate concerns about banking discrimination to fight...
a month ago
19

The crypto industry’s debanking smokescreen

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Cryptocurrency companies have co-opted legitimate concerns about banking discrimination to fight regulation — and Congress is buying it
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Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in January On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and...
a month ago
16

Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from January 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Retail sales for...
a month ago
15

Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Retail sales for January is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a no change in retail sales. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January. The consensus is for a 0.3%...
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Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a month ago
15

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
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Calculated Risk
Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by...
a month ago
15

Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low A brief excerpt: The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Not-So-Strange Paradox of American Power and Dysfunction Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining...
a month ago
19

The Not-So-Strange Paradox of American Power and Dysfunction

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining rods to what happens next. A recent essay explores the paradox of American power: global reach amidst civic decline: The Strange Triumph of a Broken America: Why Power...
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Calculated Risk
NY Fed Q4 Report: Household Debt Increased; High auto loan delinquency rates From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates...
a month ago
16

NY Fed Q4 Report: Household Debt Increased; High auto loan delinquency rates

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The...
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The Diff
Uber's AV Bet on a Narrow Range of Competitors' ROI Outcomes Plus! The Grid, and Cross-Subsidies; Pricing AI; Owning the Login; Liquidity Premium; Supply Chains
a month ago
19

Uber's AV Bet on a Narrow Range of Competitors' ROI Outcomes

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! The Grid, and Cross-Subsidies; Pricing AI; Owning the Login; Liquidity Premium; Supply Chains
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 213,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a month ago
17

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 213,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
13

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 224 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The...
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Calculated Risk
Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 90,000 in January The BLS reported 143 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I...
a month ago
14

Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 90,000 in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The BLS reported 143 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 573 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. ...
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Mazdak
Apple’s Next Big Bet? The Future of Robotics and the Smart Home For decades, Apple has been known for revolutionizing industries.
a month ago
15

Apple’s Next Big Bet? The Future of Robotics and the Smart Home

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
For decades, Apple has been known for revolutionizing industries.
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate...
a month ago
258

Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The One True Test of AI Intelligence The point of this thought experiment is to reveal the true nature of our relationship with AI: we...
a month ago
16

The One True Test of AI Intelligence

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The point of this thought experiment is to reveal the true nature of our relationship with AI: we only love it as a mindless slave that makes us rich. From the earliest days of artificial intelligence, what test proves AI equivalence with human intelligence has been the...
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Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
a month ago
15

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (down from 3.7% YoY in December), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
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