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Mazdak
Google’s New AI Summaries in Discover: The Next Blow to Publishers? If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly...
2 days ago
7
2 days ago
If you work in media or publishing, brace yourself — another platform update from Google is quietly shifting the ground beneath us.
Commoncog
Announcing Speedrunning the Idea Maze A live course, limited to 30 people. Applications close 21st July.
3 days ago
FIRE v London
June 2025: Show times I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite...
6 days ago
13
6 days ago
I really want to stop mentioning Trump. Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite cities. But when he launches 30kt bombs on Iran, it is very hard to avoid talking about him. In the context of what Trump’s been up to, the welfare reform screw-ups by the Labour...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2025, including The Snowball, The...
6 days ago
14
6 days ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2025, including The Snowball, The Haywire Heart, Plato's Republic, and the King James Bible
Citation Needed
Issue 88 – The stockchain Crypto firms hope putting a blockchain veneer on traditional equities will allow them to sidestep...
6 days ago
13
6 days ago
Crypto firms hope putting a blockchain veneer on traditional equities will allow them to sidestep lessons learned in the 1929 Wall Street crash, crypto firms look to become banks, and Congress celebrates crypto surveillance while claiming to outlaw it
Commoncog
Putting the Jobs to be Done Interview to Practice Things we wished someone told us, before we put the JTBD interview to practice.
a week ago
Citation Needed
Issue 87 – SO ORDERED Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders,...
2 weeks ago
13
2 weeks ago
Trump’s crypto empire attracts more foreign millions, the FHFA pushes crypto on mortgage lenders, and Mamdani’s mayoral primary win makes billionaires sweat
Commoncog
Tycoon Succession Most Asian conglomerates are family-controlled businesses. Succession in any family business is a...
2 weeks ago
13
2 weeks ago
Most Asian conglomerates are family-controlled businesses. Succession in any family business is a tricky thing. We look at a few cases as part of the Asian Conglomerate Series.
Mazdak
Trillions Flow into AI: The New Infrastructure Arms Race 🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
3 weeks ago
Commoncog
The Art of the Asian Joint Venture How Robert Kuok used the joint venture to expand his business empire ... and what this tells us...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
How Robert Kuok used the joint venture to expand his business empire ... and what this tells us about business in Southeast Asia.
FIRE v London
Swapping a rental property for a share portfolio Having sold my London rental flat, what was I to do next? I’ve paid the £20k+ transaction fees. I...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
Having sold my London rental flat, what was I to do next? I’ve paid the £20k+ transaction fees. I have paid off the mortgage. I set aside the amount to pay my Capital Gains Tax, a liability which needs to be settled within [60] days. I moved some of the remaining equity into...
Citation Needed
Issue 86 – State power sponsored by Coinbase The GENIUS Act passes the Senate after explicit threats to Democrats from the crypto lobby, and...
4 weeks ago
18
4 weeks ago
The GENIUS Act passes the Senate after explicit threats to Democrats from the crypto lobby, and shady crypto billionaire Justin Sun cozies up even closer to the Trump family
Commoncog
You’re Always Selling to a Situation, Not an ICP One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is...
4 weeks ago
16
4 weeks ago
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is this idea of selling into situations, not selling to ideal customer profiles. It’s what the pros do anyway.
Musings on Markets
The (Uncertain) Payoff from Alternative Investments: Many a slip between the cup and the lip? It is true that most investing lessons are directed at those who invest only in stocks and bonds,...
a month ago
14
a month ago
It is true that most investing lessons are directed at those who invest only in stocks and bonds, and mostly with long-only strategies. It is also true that in the process, we are ignoring vast swaths of the investment universe, from other asset classes (real estate,...
Citation Needed
It matters. I care. Giving up on the idea that truth matters is not just cynicism, it’s surrender.
a month ago
FIRE v London
May 2025: market springtime I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to...
a month ago
22
a month ago
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to the Isle of Wight, my first visit to a dairy farm in 40+ years, a lovely trip to the Cotswolds, and more. If you can identify any of the locations above feel free to shout… Continue...
Citation Needed
Issue 85 – All the President’s tokens As Trump’s web of crypto projects gets tangled up in itself, a regulator warns of “regulatory Jenga”...
a month ago
15
a month ago
As Trump’s web of crypto projects gets tangled up in itself, a regulator warns of “regulatory Jenga” in the crypto sector that echoes the 2008 financial crisis
Citation Needed
Trump to launch branded crypto trading application New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of...
a month ago
15
a month ago
New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of President Trump to buy his memecoin
Musings on Markets
Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath! I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what...
a month ago
18
a month ago
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what I thought about the S&P ratings downgrade for the US. Since I stay blissfully unaware of most news stories and things related to markets when I am on the beach, I had to look up...
Citation Needed
OpenAI featured chatbot is pushing extreme surgeries to “subhuman” men OpenAI's featured chatbot recommends $200,000 in surgeries while promoting incel ideology
a month ago
Commoncog
The Origin of the Tatas How one of the oldest business empires on the subcontinent got started, and how one man’s values...
a month ago
25
a month ago
How one of the oldest business empires on the subcontinent got started, and how one man’s values laid the foundation for five generations of business conduct.
FIRE v London
April 2025 – balmy weather, barmy markets Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything...
a month ago
24
a month ago
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything particularly notable happened in the portfolio, ignoring the mid month gyrations. It was a lovely month, April. I did a bit of travelling, but the UK had generally lovely spring...
Mazdak
Claude 4 Has Arrived: Anthropic’s AI Agents Raise the Bar for Autonomous Intelligence Anthropic has officially launched the Claude 4 model family, and with it, the frontier of artificial...
a month ago
Commoncog
Cases from The Heart of Innovation Three cases from The Heart of Innovation, picked to demonstrate the ideas of Deliberate Innovation.
a month ago
Citation Needed
Issue 84 – Rogue overseas support agents Coinbase’s substantial data breach coincides with a convenient terms of service update, while the...
a month ago
23
a month ago
Coinbase’s substantial data breach coincides with a convenient terms of service update, while the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill regains momentum in the Senate
The Rational Walk
Greg Abel Steps into the Spotlight Greg Abel will step into the spotlight at the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with Warren...
a month ago
21
a month ago
Greg Abel will step into the spotlight at the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with Warren Buffett sitting in the audience.
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches Codex: The Future of AI-Powered Software Engineering OpenAI has officially launched Codex, its most advanced AI coding agent to date, within ChatGPT....
2 months ago
35
2 months ago
OpenAI has officially launched Codex, its most advanced AI coding agent to date, within ChatGPT. Designed for developers, teams, and enterprises, Codex represents a major step forward in agentic AI systems purpose-built for software engineering.
Citation Needed
Issue 83 – Trump’s crypto-backed plan to auction off access to the White House Trump’s crypto conflicts continue to multiply as Democratic legislators demand ethics inquiries and...
2 months ago
Commoncog
The Heart of Innovation: Why Most Startups Fail A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do...
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Current State of the Housing Market At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April Asking Rents Mostly...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Data, Invisible Software, The Post, AI, Cheating, Control, Star Wars
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of May 11, 2025 The key reports this week are April CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, May 12th...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
The key reports this week are April CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, May 12th ----- 2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for April. ----- Tuesday, May 13th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for...
Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2% Plenty of data next week!  Note that the Blue Chip consensus is wide - and currently around 1%. The...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
Plenty of data next week!  Note that the Blue Chip consensus is wide - and currently around 1%. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on May 8, up from 2.2 percent on May 6. After this...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-May provides a snapshot of the current housing market. reported that there were “more than 1 million homes...
The Diff
Who Else But Google? Plus! Tariff Plays; Good Trades; Capital Structure; Moderation; Debt and the Dollar
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in April From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent shifts in U.S. policies on trade and immigration have introduced volatility in financial markets and heightened uncertainty for firms. The ultimate outcomes...
Calculated Risk
"Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal" From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. ... In the bigger picture, today's...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019 What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 months ago
14
2 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
oftwominds-Charles...
Tariffs Are Not Enough The tariff sledgehammer has a role, but it's a limited one. There's an inherent tension in...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
The tariff sledgehammer has a role, but it's a limited one. There's an inherent tension in State-Corporate Capitalism. Proponents of the free market hold that any state Industrial Policy will fail because the State cannot pick the winners and losers as effectively as The...
The Diff
Why do Venture Funds Target a Particular Ownership Level? Plus! The Path of Deployment; The Long Tail; Non-News; Data; Models
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.8% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 May. ... 27 April through 3 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 65.8%...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 228,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 241,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 226,000. emphasis added The...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 months ago
13
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 223 thousand, down from 241 thousand last week.
Citation Needed
Meet Trump’s memecoin dinner guests Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises fresh concerns over foreign influence
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 1% in April From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April The Dodge Momentum Index...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 0.9% in April to 205.1 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised March reading of 203.1. Over the month, commercial planning grew 3.3%...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April A...
2 months ago
11
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in April. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in April; Up 4.9% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in April Wholesale...
2 months ago
13
2 months ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in April Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were much higher in April compared to March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) increased to 208.2, an...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 2, 2025. The...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
2 months ago
13
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to to the Fed funds rate is expected at this meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC...
Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel Unchanged YoY Anecdotally, I've heard that airlines ticket prices are falling. That suggests less travel. Also,...
2 months ago
11
2 months ago
Anecdotally, I've heard that airlines ticket prices are falling. That suggests less travel. Also, the Real ID restrictions go in place tomorrow, and that might impact domestic airline travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of May 5, 2025. ...
oftwominds-Charles...
It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that...
2 months ago
40
2 months ago
I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that I've maintained them. It was 20 years ago today--well, actually, yesterday--that I launched this blog into the swirling rapids of the Web. As we know, time flies when you're...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
2 months ago
14
2 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.3% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 7...
The Diff
Expect More Politically Inscrutable Assassinations Plus! Coasian Bargains; Movies; Currency; OpenAI; Tariffs
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $140.5 Billion in March The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $140.5 billion in March, up $17.3 billion from $123.2 billion in February, revised. ...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Trade Balance From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged to Start New...
2 months ago
12
2 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged to Start New Week Mortgage rates faced a slight headwind on Monday as economic data caused weakness in the bond market. This would typically result in higher mortgage rates, but in today's case, the...
Mazdak
OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all. In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to restructure as a for-profit company.
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I'm still not yet...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Terminal Rot in Corporate America Corporate America took advantage of the Covid shortages and fiscal largesse to profiteer on a scale...
2 months ago
103
2 months ago
Corporate America took advantage of the Covid shortages and fiscal largesse to profiteer on a scale criminals could only dream of. One of humanity's most pernicious traits is the ease with which we habituate to conditions over time that we would have rejected out of hand if...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief...
2 months ago
15
2 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow • Improved inventory levels are providing more options and a softer price dynamic for homeowners shopping this spring There is much...
The Diff
Peak Berkshire (In a Good Way) Plus! Diff Jobs; Decoupling; Who Trains the Model-Trainers; Cash Cycles; AI and ARR; Gating
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 51.6% in April (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.6%, up from 50.8% last month. The...
2 months ago
12
2 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.6%, up from 50.8% last month. The employment index increased to 49.0%, from 46.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 51.6% April 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Calculated Risk
Housing May 4th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 32.9% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
2 months ago
11
2 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 19.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 10% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger...
Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Services Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a...
2 months ago
10
2 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 12 and DOW futures are down 80 (fair value). WTI futures at $58.29 per barrel and Brent at...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
2 months ago
9
2 months ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the June meeting, with the next rate cut in July, and one or two more rate cuts later...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.0% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 26 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
2 months ago
9
2 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 26 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 26 April. ... 20-26 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 65.1% (-1.0%) emphasis...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
2 months ago
8
2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year Fannie and Freddie: Single Family...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Margin Call, Math, BNPL, AI and the Environment, Bonds, Favors, Tariffs, College
2 months ago
Musings on Markets
The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025! I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. The month was off to a bad start, and tariffs remained the...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. ----- Monday, May 5th...
2 months ago
12
2 months ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. ----- Monday, May 5th ----- 10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. ----- Tuesday, May 6th ----- 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the...
Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 months ago
9
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
oftwominds-Charles...
25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead? Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. As a result of...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury...
The Diff
Storing Up Untainted Data Plus! Niches; Creator Economy; AI and Filters; Trade Wars; Peak Gaming?
2 months ago
The Diff
Should Congress be Allowed to Trade? Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better...
2 months ago
9
2 months ago
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better Management
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Diamond Anniversary Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway sixty years ago. It is possible that major...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway sixty years ago. It is possible that major announcements will be made at the annual meeting.
Commoncog
Business with Tariffs; Business as Usual Every Asian Tycoon we’ve examined got their start in a world with tariffs. They could thrive and...
2 months ago
103
2 months ago
Every Asian Tycoon we’ve examined got their start in a world with tariffs. They could thrive and adapt under severe uncertainty. So can we. Here’s how to calibrate for that world.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Potential Winners and Losers in Reshoring Supply Chains Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock and on back order, with no estimate of a future delivery date." The ultimate winners and losers in reshoring supply chains to North America have yet to be determined, and...
The Diff
Pathologically High-Margin Businesses Plus! Change My View; Capital Structure; Artificial Sycophancy; Elasticity; Internalizing...
2 months ago
oftwominds-Charles...
The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative...
2 months ago
13
2 months ago
Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative control" can't obscure the facts or the banquet of consequences that these realities have set. Not everyone in America gained ground as a result of the rampant...
The Diff
When Step One is to Light Money on Fire and Measure How Fast it Burns Plus! Groupchats and Norms; Venture; Made in America; Real Estate Elasticity; Lagging Investments
2 months ago
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ending our dependence on SWIFT It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a choice morsel by a much larger predator: our former ally the United States of America. In President Trump's very own words, he wants to use "economic force" to join Canada and the...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Movies, Scams, Decentralization, Reading, AI, Offline, Trade
2 months ago
The Diff
You Can't Measure AI Market Share Because it Lives at too Many Layers Plus! Moderation; Unavoidable Timing; Sad AIs; Friendshoring
2 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 82 – E-moluments As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the Trump administration continues to dismantle those same rules while he pumps his personal memecoin with promises of private access
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 8.1% Year-over-year due to Easter Timing From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 April As expected due to the Easter and Passover...
2 months ago
34
2 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 April As expected due to the Easter and Passover holidays, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 April. ... 13-19 April 2025 (percentage change from...
The Diff
Do Chatbots Cannibalize Search? Or is it the Other Way Around? Plus! Crypto; Cheating; Crypto, Redux; Guidance; Ghost Apps
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Sales in March (4.02 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 2.4% below the February 2024 sales rate. This was the 2nd...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 5.9% in March Existing-home sales descended in March,...
2 months ago
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2 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 5.9% in March Existing-home sales descended in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slid in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over-year, sales dropped in the Midwest and South, increased in the West and were...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 222,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
2 months ago
34
2 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 months ago
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2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 215 thousand last week. Durable Goods Orders for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.8%...
Calculated Risk
April Vehicle Forecast: Sales at 17.4 million SAAR, Up 8.6% YoY From WardsAuto: Pre-Tariff U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge Continues in April, Sapping Dealer...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
From WardsAuto: Pre-Tariff U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge Continues in April, Sapping Dealer Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt: If the forecast holds firm, inventory will fall below the year-ago month for the first time in nearly three years. Less inventory could take...
Calculated Risk
AIA: "Business conditions at architecture firms soften further" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
2 months ago
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2 months ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI March 2025: Business conditions at architecture firms soften further The ABI/Deltek Architecture Billings Index dipped further from February to 44.1 in March, as even more firms...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Wile E. Coyote Recession So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned...
2 months ago
31
2 months ago
So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration run out of rope? We all know there's a time lag between the moment Wile E. Coyote runs off the cliff at full speed and the moment he...
Calculated Risk
U.S. Births Increased in 2024 From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2024. The NCHS...
2 months ago
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2 months ago
From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2024. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2024 was 3,622,673, up 1% from 2023. The general fertility rate was 54.6 births per 1,000 females ages 15–44, an...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic outlook worsened considerably" Fed's Beige Book Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, but uncertainty...
2 months ago
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2 months ago
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, but uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports. Just five Districts saw slight growth, three Districts noted activity was relatively unchanged, and the remaining four...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate...
2 months ago
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2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. The previous three months were...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in March 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 724,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S....
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18,...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: New Home Sales, Architecture Billings Index, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 680 thousand SAAR, up from 676 thousand in February. Architecture Billings Index for...
Calculated Risk
Goldman: "When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We Know?" Goldman Sachs economists put out a note this morning: When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
Goldman Sachs economists put out a note this morning: When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We Know? Most of the sequential inflation increases in the last trade war took place within 2-3 months of the tariffs’ implementation, and we expect spending growth to slow shortly after...
Calculated Risk
NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs From the NMHC: Apartment Market Sees Tighter Conditions, Rebounding Deal Flow and Improved Debt Financing in First Quarter Changes in U.S. trade policy over the...
The Diff
Venture and Media Plus! Cluely; Big Tech Sees Like a State; Distribution; Student Loans and Demand Shocks; Rollups
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Plus! Cluely; Big Tech Sees Like a State; Distribution; Student Loans and Demand Shocks; Rollups
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.36% in March From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March The...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.38% of servicers’...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7% The latest headlines...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7% The latest headlines involve heavy criticism of Fed Chair Powell on the part of The President. Without any comment on whether that criticism is justified, we can still observe that markets find it...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in March, down...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in March, down 4.7% from February’s preliminary pace and down 1.5% from last March’s seasonally adjusted pace. Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales...
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: March Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
oftwominds-Charles...
What's "Normal" in a Hyper-Normalized World? Now that the entire economy depends on these hyper-normalized speculative bubbles for its "growth"...
2 months ago
35
2 months ago
Now that the entire economy depends on these hyper-normalized speculative bubbles for its "growth" and "wealth," there is a profound fear of a future based not on artifice but on the real world. Humans are quick to habituate to current conditions, i.e. consider them normal....
The Diff
Thinking-Things-Through Privilege Plus! Trade Negotiations; M&A; AI and IP; Consolidation; Sourcing
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March;...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales,...
Calculated Risk
Housing April 21st Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 15.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 6% or 7% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a...
Musings on Markets
Buy the Dip: The Draw and Dangers of Contrarian Investing! When markets are in free fall, there is a great deal of  advice that is meted out to investors, and...
2 months ago
43
2 months ago
When markets are in free fall, there is a great deal of  advice that is meted out to investors, and one is to just buy the dip, i.e., buy beaten down stocks, in the hope that they will recover, or the entire market, if it is down.  "Buying the dip" falls into a broad group of...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 20 and DOW futures are down 128 (fair value). WTI futures at $64.68 per barrel and Brent at $67.96 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $84, and Brent was at $88 - so WTI oil prices...
Commoncog
Vanguard as a Demand-Side Mystery We study the rise of Vanguard, the index fund management company, as a case study of how customer...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
We study the rise of Vanguard, the index fund management company, as a case study of how customer demand is not always about pain.
Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel up 1% YoY This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of April 16, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Air travel is up about 1.3% YoY.
FIRE v London
A stupid decision to sell my rental property I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth around £1m, right in the heart of London – near the middle of the map below. I used to live in it, I travel past it regularly, I know its neighbourhood well. The Modern Flat has...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts at 1.324 million Annual Rate in March At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing...
2 months ago
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2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing and Demographics Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different 3rd Look at Local Housing...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Moon, Welch, Robinhood, Heterodoxy, Bots, Liquidity, Trade, Google
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, April...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, April 21st ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 22nd ----- 10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. ----- Wednesday, April 23rdh...
Calculated Risk
April 18th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Family Home: From Shelter to Asset to Liability The deflation of asset bubbles and higher costs are foreseeable, but the magnitude of each is...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
The deflation of asset bubbles and higher costs are foreseeable, but the magnitude of each is unpredictable. With the rise of financialized asset bubbles as the source of our "growth," family home went from shelter to speculative asset. This transition accelerated as...
balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing and Demographics Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt:...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt: I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010. The arrow points to the large cohort moving...
The Diff
Does VIX Have Fundamentals? Plus! Customer Service; Latency; Corp Dev.; Scavengers; Broken Windows
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to Jan and Feb core control retail sales. [Apr 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)....
Calculated Risk
Friday: Markets Closed for Good Friday Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. US markets will...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2025
Citation Needed
Trump’s newest grift: Building a cryptocurrency empire while destroying its regulators Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is...
3 months ago
35
3 months ago
Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is using presidential power to dismantle the regulators who could stop it
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.2% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
The Diff
Is an AI Startup a Company or a Gig? Plus! Reasoning; Coding Assistants; Human-Level Intelligence; Insider Information; The China Squeeze
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March A brief excerpt: First, from Reuters: D.R. Horton cuts 2025 revenue forecast on weak demand for homes U.S. homebuilder D.R. Horton lowered its full-year revenue...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
3 months ago
17
3 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,324,000. This is 11.4 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,494,000, but is 1.9 percent above the March 2024 rate of 1,299,000. Single-family housing starts...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 215,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. Housing Starts for March. The consensus is for 1.410 million...
oftwominds-Charles...
This Nails It: The Doom Loop of Housing Construction Quality Add in the doom loop of an unprecedented credit-asset bubble and housing as a sector is in trouble. ...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Add in the doom loop of an unprecedented credit-asset bubble and housing as a sector is in trouble. Sorry for the punnish-ment, but this nails it: How Contracting Work Became a Race to the Bottom The reality of being a contractor includes labor shortages, brutal...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Higher inflation and slower growth" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Those policies are still evolving, and their effects...
Calculated Risk
CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit From CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit as economists postpone pre-pandemic...
3 months ago
20
3 months ago
From CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit as economists postpone pre-pandemic recovery to 2029 Whatever hopes the travel industry had in a full recovery to 2019 levels of travel bookings this year have officially been dashed, according to one economist. "What...
Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season" in April The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40,...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40, up from 39 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.3% in March From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3 percent in March but increased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent in the first quarter. The March decline was led by a 5.8 percent drop in the index for utilities, as temperatures...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 1.4% in March On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and...
3 months ago
95
3 months ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.6 percent from March 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 8.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 11,...
Commoncog
The Jobs to be Done Framework as a Method to Understand Demand How and why the Jobs to be Done Framework can help you sell more, faster, and accelerate your...
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in retail sales.  Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in February: Visitor Traffic Down 11.9% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 19.5% YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: February 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With the combined...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: February 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With the combined factors of a tough comparison to last year when Super Bowl LVIII was held in the destination, a net decrease in the convention segment tied to rotation cycles, and one fewer day...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
The Diff
Unskilled Labor and Ambient Media Plus! AI as the Flexible Funnel; Treasuries; The Long Tail; Competition; It's Gas
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2024 Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age...
3 months ago
32
3 months ago
Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group.  Those people are now in the 30 to 34 cohort. This month the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2024 by age, and I've updated the table from the...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. Last week was also notable for ranking among the more...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads Obviously a major...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads Obviously a major catalyst for the surge in MBS yields was the sharp increase in intermediate- and long-term Treasury rates. Putting additional upward pressure on MBS yields was the surge in...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
3 months ago
The Rational Walk
Writing in Private Writing is an important tool for personal intellectual development even if you never intend to share...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
Writing is an important tool for personal intellectual development even if you never intend to share your work with others.
Calculated Risk
Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different A brief excerpt: We are in a period of significant policy uncertainty and there isn’t a good historical analog for the current period. However, for...
oftwominds-Charles...
Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of...
3 months ago
36
3 months ago
The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of markets for exports and resource extraction on terms that are only favorable to the Neocolonial power. The title of today's essay pays homage to the inimitable John D....
The Diff
Information Economies and Institution Economies Plus! Distribution; Non-Tariff Barriers; Low-Background Text; Application Layer; Socks
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing April 14th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 12.5% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 5% or 6% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48...
3 months ago
16
3 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48 and DOW futures are up 250 (fair value). WTI futures at $61.50 per barrel and Brent at $64.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $86, and Brent was at $93 - so WTI oil prices are...
Calculated Risk
PCE Inflation expected to be Soft in March The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. ...
3 months ago
141
3 months ago
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. The data released so far suggests the PCE inflation will be soft in March. The producer price index (PPI), the PPI excluding food and energy, and the PPI excluding food, energy, and...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home Prices Continue to Cool" At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tract, Brains, 9/11, Diplomacy, Credit Cards, Crashes, 2024
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 15th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of...
Calculated Risk
April 11th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
FIRE v London
Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front...
3 months ago
39
3 months ago
What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front over the last few weeks, seems a bit pointless. We entered March with a lot of drama about Ukraine, and some notable ‘ceasefire’ activity on the diplomatic front. We finished March...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.3% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 months ago
125
3 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 11th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the...
Moneyness
If it's crypto it's not money laundering It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is...
3 months ago
45
3 months ago
It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is routed via crypto infrastructure, then it no longer qualifies as money laundering. Earlier this week the Department of Justice's deputy attorney general Todd Blanche sent out an...
The Diff
Will White-Collar Workers Experience a Blue-Collar Economic Recovery? Plus! Harvard; AI, Memory, and Moats; Grabbing Share; Concentrating Demand; When the Tide Goes Out
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
Calculated Risk
Friday: PPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Producer Price...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Producer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for...
oftwominds-Charles...
Last Gasp of the Landfill Economy It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate its demise. Globalization's great gift wasn't low prices--it was the collapse of durability, transforming the global economy into a Landfill Economy of shoddy products made...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.6% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 April. ... 30 March through 5 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 63.8%...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and...
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in February The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down slightly unrounded from 3.5% YoY in February), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0% (down from 3.1%), and the CPI less food...
The Diff
It Probably Takes More than Four Years to Eliminate Reserve Currency Status Plus! Elasticity; Tail Risk; What to Buy; How the Decision Got Made; US Export Pacing
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 3.7% YoY as...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 3.7% YoY as of March 2025, down from 4.1% YoY in February. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Decreased 0.1% in March; Core CPI increased 0.1% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a...
3 months ago
16
3 months ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the...
3 months ago
20
3 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised average of 223,000. emphasis added The following...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 219 thousand last week. Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is...
oftwominds-Charles...
A Decade of Headwinds These headwinds will persist for the next decade or two. The stock market is rallying hard...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
These headwinds will persist for the next decade or two. The stock market is rallying hard after a brutal sell-off--not an uncommon occurrence. As we savor our winnings in the ship's first-class casino, it's not a bad idea to step out onto the deck and gauge the weather. ...
Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 45 States in February (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in...
3 months ago
20
3 months ago
From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in six states, and...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: "Inflation was likely to be boosted this year" From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 18–19, 2025. Excerpt: With regard...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 18–19, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants judged that inflation was likely to be boosted this year by the effects of higher tariffs, although significant uncertainty surrounded...
Calculated Risk
Trump Drops Tariffs to 10% Just minutes after Goldman Sachs put out a note forecasting a recession, Mr. Trump lowered all...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
Just minutes after Goldman Sachs put out a note forecasting a recession, Mr. Trump lowered all tariffs to 10% (except China). Moving to a Recession Baseline We now expect the US’s effective tariff rate to rise by at least 20pp and are forecasting a recession with a 12-month...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-April provides a snapshot of the current housing market. Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook. Since then,...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 4,...
Commoncog
The Sugar King of The East The life and times of one of the most skilled tycoons of South East Asia: Robert Kuok. This is the...
3 months ago
36
3 months ago
The life and times of one of the most skilled tycoons of South East Asia: Robert Kuok. This is the fourth case on the rise of a tycoon in the Asian Conglomerate series.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 18-19
Citation Needed
Issue 81 – Crypto crime is legal Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
3 months ago
17
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
The Diff
Why Volatility Fattens Traders' Fingers Plus! Ads and Data; Restocking, Destocking, and Equilibria; The Negotiations Continue; De-Risking;...
3 months ago
32
3 months ago
Plus! Ads and Data; Restocking, Destocking, and Equilibria; The Negotiations Continue; De-Risking; Other Angles
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in March From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI),...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, receded 6.9% in March to 205.6 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 220.9. Over the month, commercial planning declined 7.8%...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Small Business Optimism From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Worst 24 Hours For Rates So Far This Year While there...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Worst 24 Hours For Rates So Far This Year While there was certainly some volatility surrounding news headlines that were less than credible (specifically, that Trump was considering a 90 day pause on Tariffs), bonds maintained steady...
Musings on Markets
Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy! I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and...
3 months ago
32
3 months ago
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and as is my practice, I was checking the score on the Yankee game, when I read the tariff news announcement. Coming after a few days where the market seemed to have found its...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Thoughts on Trade in 2003 In 2003, Warren Buffett wrote an article with a proposal to address the trade deficit. It deserves...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
In 2003, Warren Buffett wrote an article with a proposal to address the trade deficit. It deserves more attention in the current tariff debate.
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in March; Down 0.2% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Seasonal Decline in March...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Seasonal Decline in March Despite Strong Market Demand Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in March compared to February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Financial Kessler Effect Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a high-speed projectile with the potential to disable any other part of the system it impacts. Complex systems can undergo what's known as phase shifts, where the state of the system...
The Diff
Finance as a Scale-Invariant Global Computer Plus! The Market; Supply and Demand; The March Continues; ETFs; Intellectual Property
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Now I am on recession watch, but still not yet predicting a...
Calculated Risk
Housing April 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 10.7% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 4% or 5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 Recession Watch Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 Recession Watch Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 200 and DOW futures are down 1,200 (fair value). WTI futures at $61.99 per barrel and Brent at $65.58 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $88, and Brent was at $93 -...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries...
3 months ago
78
3 months ago
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”. These tariffs will not work. In fact, they...
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail,...
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch I am going on "recession watch" for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I've been writing this...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
I am going on "recession watch" for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I've been writing this blog. In December 2022 I went on "recession watch", but I noted "My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession."  And the economy did avoid...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "54% of outstanding mortgage loans are under 4%" At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. FHFA’s...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Freddie...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Plague, Manufacturing, FX, Agents, Trump, Surface Area, AI
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 8th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March. ----- Wednesday, April 9th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers...
Calculated Risk
April 4th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 4th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the...
oftwominds-Charles...
After the Tariff Earthquake The fires that have been ignited are not yet visible. There's a eerie calm after an...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
The fires that have been ignited are not yet visible. There's a eerie calm after an earthquake. Those trapped in collapsed buildings are aware of the consequences, but the majority experience a silence, as if the world stopped and has yet to restart. The full consequences...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected"', Expect "higher... From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in...
The Diff
What moves the Efficient Frontier Between PE and SaaS for Improving Small Companies' Financial... Plus! Reindustrialization as a Financial Engineering Problem; How the Tariffs Happened; Meanwhile,...
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Comments on March Employment Report The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined.   The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to...
Calculated Risk
March Employment Report: 228 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2025, including The Lessons of...
3 months ago
33
3 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2025, including The Lessons of History, American Journey, the works of Aristophanes, Plato, Xenophon, and more.
Calculated Risk
March Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 150k in March, slightly above consensus ... We estimate that the...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year (Easter Timing boosted YoY Occupancy) From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March On the positive side of the Easter calendar...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March On the positive side of the Easter calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported increases across the key performance metrics, according to CoStar’s latest data through 29 March. ... 23-29 March 2025 (percentage change from...
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow • Home price growth is beginning to cool as modestly improved demand is running up against higher levels of inventory across most major...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50.8% in March; Employment Index Declined Sharply (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.8%, down from 53.5% last month. The...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.8%, down from 53.5% last month. The employment index decreased to 46.2%, from 53.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 50.8% March 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
The Diff
Tariffs and Currencies Plus! Interfaces; Surface Area; AI's Jobs Impact; Capacity; Capacity, Continued
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit decreased to $122.7 Billion in February The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $122.7 billion in February, down $8.0 billion from $130.7 billion in January, revised. . ...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 224,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Services Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week. Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The...
Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 47 States in January (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 92. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 35 states, decreased in nine states, and...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome....
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome. Okay, players: jokers are wild, but with a twist: the entire deck is jokers. Since everyone at the table will have five Aces, nobody wins. Welcome to the Trade War Poker...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in March: Lowest since May 2020 This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March...
3 months ago
33
3 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to...
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Q1 Moody’s CRE Preliminary Trend Analysis The national multifamily market has...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 155,000 in March From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in March; Annual Pay was Up 4.6% “Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28,...
Moneyness
Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use...
3 months ago
41
3 months ago
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use decentralized databases like Ethereum and Tron to run their platforms. Secondly, and more important for the purposes of this article, they grant access to almost anyone, no questions...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from...
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales "Surge" to 17.8 million SAAR in March Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge in Preemptive Move to Potential Tariff-Based Price Increases (pay site). March sales were proof that U.S. consumers are very much paying attention to tariffs, as demand on a...
Calculated Risk
Economic Tailwinds and Headwinds After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were...
3 months ago
32
3 months ago
After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign. See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full.  I...
The Diff
eToro: Twitch Plays the Market Plus! OpenAI; Open AI; Supply Chains and Self-Tariffing; Surface Area; Secrets
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in February From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during February 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,195.8 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised January estimate of $2,179.9 billion. The February figure...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 49.0% in March (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 49.0%...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 49.0% in March, down from 50.3% in February. The employment index was at 44.7%, down from 47.6% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 45.2%, down from 48.6%. Manufacturing...
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in February From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively....
Commoncog
How to Become an Asian Tycoon Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half the battle.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70%...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
oftwominds-Charles...
Why the Global Recession Will be Deeper and Longer Than Pundits Anticipate The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two decades of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization anticipate. While everyone focuses on conflicts between nations, few look at the problems shared by nations. Richard...
The Diff
"Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question Plus! Solve for X + X; Refactoring; AI and Distribution; How Models Think; The AI Business Model
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Calculated Risk
Housing March 31st Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 30.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 8.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for...
Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Fannie and Freddie:...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Jobs, Nobels, AI, Magazines, Worms, Complements
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday. ----- Monday, March 31st ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in...
Calculated Risk
March 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February; Multi-Family... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.61%, unchanged from 0.61% January. Freddie's rate is up...
Citation Needed
Issue 80 – Aimed at benefiting the digital assets industry As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions...
3 months ago
35
3 months ago
As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions himself for maximum personal profit
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1% From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 27th...
The Diff
IP Protection in the Era of Fast Copying and Watermark Removal Plus! Data and Outsourcing CoreWeave Fraud Realignment Local AI
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.3% YoY in February Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 29.2% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.0% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 March. ... 16-22 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 66.0% (+1.0%) emphasis...
oftwominds-Charles...
Ultra-Processed Life Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the...
3 months ago
40
3 months ago
Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the destruction and derangement of an Ultra-Processed Life. The digital realm, finance, and junk food have something in common: they're all ultra-processed, synthetic versions of...
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.4% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the January Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
The Diff
StubHub: Market-Making in a Maximally-Heterogeneous Asset Class Plus! Lobbying Through Products; Models; Digital Assets; Skill Levels; Risk Premia
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.0% in February; Down 3.6% YoY From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February Pending home sales improved 2.0% in...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February Pending home sales improved 2.0% in February according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with a larger decrease in the West – while the...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Revised up to 2.4% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry,...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third...
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 15% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 21,...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Durable Goods Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 months ago
43
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.
Calculated Risk
March Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 16.6 million SAAR, Up 5.9% YoY From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content). ...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Deliveries appear to have accelerated sharply in the middle of the month, creating momentum that could cause sales to overshoot the forecast. Conversely, overall...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. The previous three months were...
The Diff
The Two-Sided Uncertainty Tax Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free Trade; Private and Public
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in February 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices)....
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 4.1% Annual Gain in January 2025 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, New Home Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The average mortgage lender raised rates modestly on Monday morning--a logical move considering the weakness in the bond market over the weekend. Rates are based directly on bonds. Bond...
Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel up 3% YoY This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of March 23, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Air travel is up about 2.6% YoY.
Calculated Risk
Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook I started the...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook I started the year taking Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s approach to the impact of policy: I’d wait to see what was implemented before changing my outlook. Altos Research put out an updated inventory...
The Diff
There's More Than One Efficient Market Paradox Plus! Reciprocal Tariffs; AI Purgatory; Payments and Credit; LinkedInFluencers; Efficient Markets
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing March 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 30.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 7.0% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing seasonally. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 25 and DOW futures are up 160 (fair value). WTI futures at $68.28 per barrel and Brent at...
Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR:...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY, I noted: On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 1.3% from January and are now down 6.7% from...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Archiving, Externalities, OpenAI, 2024, Abundance, Hiring, The Dollar
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP,...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP, February Personal Income & Outlays, and January Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, March 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a...
Calculated Risk
March 21st COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February" Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February" This is a short note … How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? What will happen with house prices in...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans...
3 months ago
32
3 months ago
From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans International travel to the United States is expected to slide by 5 percent this year, contributing to a $64 billion shortfall for the travel industry, according to Tourism Economics. The...
oftwominds-Charles...
POD People 2025 In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New...
3 months ago
31
3 months ago
In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New Normal. In the cultural zeitgeist, the term Pod People refers to the novel and film franchise Invasion of the Body Snatchers, in which nomadic aliens reach Earth and spawn...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous adjustment, it appears GDPNow (adjusted) is slightly positive for Q1. (For more on the gold adjustment, see For GDP Forecasters, Some Gold Doesn't Glitter Our 1Q GDP tracking...
The Diff
Why do Stocks Only go up at Night? Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil Companies Want?
Calculated Risk
Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise with FHA Performance in the Spotlight • The national delinquency rate edged up 5 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in February; that’s up 19 bps from a year ago but still 32 bps below where...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 28.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Sales in February (4.26 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from the previous month and were 1.2% below the February 2024 sales rate. This breaks the...
Citation Needed
Issue 79 – Mundus sine Caesaribus The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal...
3 months ago
35
3 months ago
The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal to its target demographic by bashing trans people
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the...
The Diff
Investors as Translators Plus! $44bn; Banks and Rates Trades; Connected Cows; Competing With AI; Recaps
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 750 from the previous...
Moneyness
Canadian banks as U.S. hostages? BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to...
3 months ago
39
3 months ago
BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to use "economic force" against Canada. In my previous post, I worried that one way this force could be wielded was through Canada's dangerous dependence on U.S.-controlled...