Full Width [alt+shift+f] FOCUS MODE Shortcuts [alt+shift+k]
Sign Up [alt+shift+s] Log In [alt+shift+l]
Top Categories > finance
#all #programming #history #technology #startups #life #science #literature #creative #architecture #design #travel #finance #comics #AI #indiehacker #cartography Muted Categories [alt+←][alt+→]
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in April From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
3 months ago
31
3 months ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent shifts in U.S. policies on trade and immigration have introduced volatility in financial markets and heightened uncertainty for firms. The ultimate outcomes...
Calculated Risk
"Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal" From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. ... In the bigger picture, today's...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019 What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
oftwominds-Charles...
Tariffs Are Not Enough The tariff sledgehammer has a role, but it's a limited one. There's an inherent tension in...
3 months ago
43
3 months ago
The tariff sledgehammer has a role, but it's a limited one. There's an inherent tension in State-Corporate Capitalism. Proponents of the free market hold that any state Industrial Policy will fail because the State cannot pick the winners and losers as effectively as The...
The Diff
Why do Venture Funds Target a Particular Ownership Level? Plus! The Path of Deployment; The Long Tail; Non-News; Data; Models
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.8% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 months ago
30
3 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 May. ... 27 April through 3 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 65.8%...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 228,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the...
3 months ago
31
3 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 241,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 226,000. emphasis added The...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 months ago
20
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 223 thousand, down from 241 thousand last week.
Citation Needed
Meet Trump’s memecoin dinner guests Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises...
3 months ago
40
3 months ago
Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises fresh concerns over foreign influence
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 1% in April From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April The Dodge Momentum Index...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 0.9% in April to 205.1 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised March reading of 203.1. Over the month, commercial planning grew 3.3%...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April A...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in April. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in April; Up 4.9% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in April Wholesale...
3 months ago
20
3 months ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in April Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were much higher in April compared to March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) increased to 208.2, an...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 2, 2025. The...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 months ago
20
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to to the Fed funds rate is expected at this meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC...
Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel Unchanged YoY Anecdotally, I've heard that airlines ticket prices are falling. That suggests less travel. Also,...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
Anecdotally, I've heard that airlines ticket prices are falling. That suggests less travel. Also, the Real ID restrictions go in place tomorrow, and that might impact domestic airline travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of May 5, 2025. ...
oftwominds-Charles...
It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that...
3 months ago
54
3 months ago
I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that I've maintained them. It was 20 years ago today--well, actually, yesterday--that I launched this blog into the swirling rapids of the Web. As we know, time flies when you're...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.3% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 7...
The Diff
Expect More Politically Inscrutable Assassinations Plus! Coasian Bargains; Movies; Currency; OpenAI; Tariffs
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $140.5 Billion in March The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $140.5 billion in March, up $17.3 billion from $123.2 billion in February, revised. ...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Trade Balance From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged to Start New...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged to Start New Week Mortgage rates faced a slight headwind on Monday as economic data caused weakness in the bond market. This would typically result in higher mortgage rates, but in today's case, the...
Mazdak
OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all. In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to restructure as a for-profit company.
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I'm still not yet...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Terminal Rot in Corporate America Corporate America took advantage of the Covid shortages and fiscal largesse to profiteer on a scale...
3 months ago
116
3 months ago
Corporate America took advantage of the Covid shortages and fiscal largesse to profiteer on a scale criminals could only dream of. One of humanity's most pernicious traits is the ease with which we habituate to conditions over time that we would have rejected out of hand if...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final...
3 months ago
39
3 months ago
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow • Improved inventory levels are providing more options and a softer price dynamic for homeowners shopping this spring There is much...
The Diff
Peak Berkshire (In a Good Way) Plus! Diff Jobs; Decoupling; Who Trains the Model-Trainers; Cash Cycles; AI and ARR; Gating
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 51.6% in April (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.6%, up from 50.8% last month. The...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.6%, up from 50.8% last month. The employment index increased to 49.0%, from 46.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 51.6% April 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Calculated Risk
Housing May 4th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 32.9% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 19.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 10% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger...
Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Services Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a...
3 months ago
16
3 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 12 and DOW futures are down 80 (fair value). WTI futures at $58.29 per barrel and Brent at...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
3 months ago
16
3 months ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the June meeting, with the next rate cut in July, and one or two more rate cuts later...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.0% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 26 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
3 months ago
15
3 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 26 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 26 April. ... 20-26 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 65.1% (-1.0%) emphasis...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
3 months ago
14
3 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year Fannie and Freddie: Single Family...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Margin Call, Math, BNPL, AI and the Environment, Bonds, Favors, Tariffs, College
3 months ago
Musings on Markets
The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025! I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the...
3 months ago
43
3 months ago
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. The month was off to a bad start, and tariffs remained the...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. ----- Monday, May 5th...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. ----- Monday, May 5th ----- 10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. ----- Tuesday, May 6th ----- 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the...
Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
14
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
oftwominds-Charles...
25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead? Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. As a result of...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury...
The Diff
Storing Up Untainted Data Plus! Niches; Creator Economy; AI and Filters; Trade Wars; Peak Gaming?
3 months ago
The Diff
Should Congress be Allowed to Trade? Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better...
3 months ago
14
3 months ago
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better Management
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Diamond Anniversary Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway sixty years ago. It is possible that major...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway sixty years ago. It is possible that major announcements will be made at the annual meeting.
Commoncog
Business with Tariffs; Business as Usual Every Asian Tycoon we’ve examined got their start in a world with tariffs. They could thrive and...
3 months ago
116
3 months ago
Every Asian Tycoon we’ve examined got their start in a world with tariffs. They could thrive and adapt under severe uncertainty. So can we. Here’s how to calibrate for that world.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Potential Winners and Losers in Reshoring Supply Chains Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock and on back order, with no estimate of a future delivery date." The ultimate winners and losers in reshoring supply chains to North America have yet to be determined, and...
The Diff
Pathologically High-Margin Businesses Plus! Change My View; Capital Structure; Artificial Sycophancy; Elasticity; Internalizing...
4 months ago
oftwominds-Charles...
The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative...
4 months ago
21
4 months ago
Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative control" can't obscure the facts or the banquet of consequences that these realities have set. Not everyone in America gained ground as a result of the rampant...
The Diff
When Step One is to Light Money on Fire and Measure How Fast it Burns Plus! Groupchats and Norms; Venture; Made in America; Real Estate Elasticity; Lagging Investments
4 months ago
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ending our dependence on SWIFT It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a...
4 months ago
24
4 months ago
It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a choice morsel by a much larger predator: our former ally the United States of America. In President Trump's very own words, he wants to use "economic force" to join Canada and the...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Movies, Scams, Decentralization, Reading, AI, Offline, Trade
4 months ago
The Diff
You Can't Measure AI Market Share Because it Lives at too Many Layers Plus! Moderation; Unavoidable Timing; Sad AIs; Friendshoring
4 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 82 – E-moluments As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the...
4 months ago
31
4 months ago
As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the Trump administration continues to dismantle those same rules while he pumps his personal memecoin with promises of private access