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Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.60 million SAAR in January Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales...
7 months ago
37
7 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Start 2025 With 4% Increase in January (pay site). There did not appear to be an end-of-month boost in demand, either as a rebound from the mid-month weather-related losses or...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low" From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with the most significant drop in the South...
Mazdak
Whatever Happens to TikTok, Big Tech is Coming for Its Millions of Creators TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing...
7 months ago
46
7 months ago
TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing an uncertain future in the United States.
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate...
4 months ago
38
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. The previous three months were...
oftwominds-Charles...
Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New...
5 months ago
33
5 months ago
The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New Roaring 20s of exhilarating expansion, or will we suffer a Great Depression 2.0? Gordon Long and I explore this binary in our latest podcast. Why is the next decade a binary of...
balajis.com
#2 - Tobi Lütke & Kaz Nejatian on Shopify's Country-Sized Economy Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji...
over a year ago
41
over a year ago
Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji review how Shopify rose from tiny startup to $180B+ global economy, with an annual GMV on par with the GDP of New Zealand. In the process they touch on Hayek, the Hanseatic League,...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
5 months ago
32
5 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9...
oftwominds-Charles...
Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of...
4 months ago
56
4 months ago
The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of markets for exports and resource extraction on terms that are only favorable to the Neocolonial power. The title of today's essay pays homage to the inimitable John D....
Commoncog
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota on Human-AI Symbiosis Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented...
7 months ago
59
7 months ago
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented approach to AI in real world domains.
Citation Needed
Issue 91 – GDP on the blockchain The regulator set to take on primary crypto oversight is down to a single Commissioner, and new...
a week ago
16
a week ago
The regulator set to take on primary crypto oversight is down to a single Commissioner, and new pro-crypto PACs focus on installing more Republicans in the midterms
Mazdak
Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ... Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
8 months ago
Moneyness
Is it better to bribe Trump by purchasing his memecoin or his stock? Noah Smith writes a provocative article about memecoins as a novel mechanism for bribery payments. A...
7 months ago
35
7 months ago
Noah Smith writes a provocative article about memecoins as a novel mechanism for bribery payments. A foreign dignitary looking to gain influence over Donald Trump would like to pay him a giant bribe, but doing so directly is prohibited by all sort of laws. Luckily, Trump has just...
Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals? The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
a year ago
55
a year ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in December Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for December. The recent Case-Shiller index...
7 months ago
43
7 months ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for December. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for November. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Ticks Up Slightly in December • The...
Commoncog
How to Run Smart Experiments When You Just Don’t Know How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use...
2 weeks ago
24
2 weeks ago
How all good entrepreneurs run experiments at the earliest stages of a business, and how you can use this approach for your own career.
Citation Needed
Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky...
11 months ago
111
11 months ago
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky goes to trial, and some more ill-received blockchain games suggest “GameFi” has an uncertain future.
Mazdak
Multifamily Real Estate Investment Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential properties with three or more units. It can be a good investment for a number of reasons, including: Potential for high cash flow. Multifamily properties can generate a steady stream of...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Revised up to 2.4% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry,...
5 months ago
34
5 months ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the...
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
over a year ago
104
over a year ago
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
Citation Needed
Issue 85 – All the President’s tokens As Trump’s web of crypto projects gets tangled up in itself, a regulator warns of “regulatory Jenga”...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
As Trump’s web of crypto projects gets tangled up in itself, a regulator warns of “regulatory Jenga” in the crypto sector that echoes the 2008 financial crisis
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70%...
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
8 months ago
26
8 months ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
Bits about Money
Banking in very uncertain times We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we...
over a year ago
37
over a year ago
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we may not get about it.
Mazdak
Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
10 months ago
Commoncog
The Story of Samsung How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s...
6 months ago
52
6 months ago
How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s economy.
Farnam Street
Let Go of the Learning Baggage We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it...
over a year ago
88
over a year ago
We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it when needed. More knowledge means better instincts; better insights into opportunities for both you and your organization. You will ultimately produce better work if you give...
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap? I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
over a year ago
136
over a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Some Observations on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Wind-Down and Reinvestment... From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on table for larger image. Given the significant declines...
5 months ago
25
5 months ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on table for larger image. Given the significant declines in Federal Reserve holdings of Treasuries and Agency MBS since early 2022, the uninformed (such as Treasury Secretary Bessent) might conclude that the Federal Reserve has been a big...
Calculated Risk
President Washington's Farewell Address I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief...
6 months ago
27
6 months ago
I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief excerpt: To the efficacy and permanency of your Union, a Government for the whole is indispensable. No alliances, however strict, between the parts can be an adequate substitute; they...
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in November Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index...
8 months ago
35
8 months ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Northeastern, New England States Continue to Lead US for...
The Rational Walk
In the Zone Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to...
a year ago
78
a year ago
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to provide valuable insights about our health.
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 183,000 in January From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in...
7 months ago
24
7 months ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Consumer-facing...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts at 1.324 million Annual Rate in March At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing...
4 months ago
49
4 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing and Demographics Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different 3rd Look at Local Housing...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
4 months ago
25
4 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #227 Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
9 months ago
78
9 months ago
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs
Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
a year ago
111
a year ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Operator Tool: A Glimpse into the Future of Autonomous AI Agents Imagine an AI tool that doesn’t just assist but takes over tasks like writing code, booking travel,...
7 months ago
45
7 months ago
Imagine an AI tool that doesn’t just assist but takes over tasks like writing code, booking travel, or managing your schedule—all autonomously.
balajis.com
AI is polytheistic, not monotheistic And ten more thoughts on AI.
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
a year ago
156
a year ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
Mazdak
Popular Business Tips That Are Actually Hurting Your Success In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice...
9 months ago
48
9 months ago
In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice that often does more harm than good.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans...
5 months ago
40
5 months ago
From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans International travel to the United States is expected to slide by 5 percent this year, contributing to a $64 billion shortfall for the travel industry, according to Tourism Economics. The...
Calculated Risk
Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
8 months ago
43
8 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
a year ago
55
a year ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
63
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201 Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
a year ago
128
a year ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 13th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 23.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory will...
7 months ago
39
7 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click...
FIRE v London
Swapping a rental property for a share portfolio Having sold my London rental flat, what was I to do next? I’ve paid the £20k+ transaction fees. I...
2 months ago
38
2 months ago
Having sold my London rental flat, what was I to do next? I’ve paid the £20k+ transaction fees. I have paid off the mortgage. I set aside the amount to pay my Capital Gains Tax, a liability which needs to be settled within [60] days. I moved some of the remaining equity into...
Mazdak
Unlock the Power of Persuasion: The 4-Part Key to Getting What You Want Imagine having just one skill that could propel your business to unprecedented success.
10 months ago
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 50.9% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.9%...
7 months ago
30
7 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.9% in January, up from 49.2% in December. The employment index was at 50.3%, up from 45.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 55.1%, up from 52.1%. Manufacturing PMI®...
Bits about Money
KYC and AML: beyond the acronyms Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
over a year ago