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Commoncog
High Roller: Lessons from America's Richest Banker Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's...
a year ago
60
a year ago
Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's richest banker. A guest post by Frederik Gieschen.
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately" Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal...
7 months ago
47
7 months ago
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
11 months ago
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Operator Tool: A Glimpse into the Future of Autonomous AI Agents Imagine an AI tool that doesn’t just assist but takes over tasks like writing code, booking travel,...
7 months ago
45
7 months ago
Imagine an AI tool that doesn’t just assist but takes over tasks like writing code, booking travel, or managing your schedule—all autonomously.
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership "Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
a year ago
Musings on Markets
The Siren Song of Sustainability: The Theocratic Trifecta's Third Leg! You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in...
9 months ago
24
9 months ago
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in sanctimony, nurtured in hypocrisy and sold with sophistry. My voyage with ESG began with curiosity in my 2019 exploration of what it purported to measure, turned to cynicism as the...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
5 months ago
26
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February; Recent Rent Trends at Two Large Publicly Traded Companies in the Single-Family Rental Business A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3 During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
102
a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage...
8 months ago
49
8 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.50% as of November 30, 2024. According to MBA’s...
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance) Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
a year ago
The Diff
The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
6 months ago
Commoncog
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
over a year ago
74
over a year ago
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
8 months ago
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
a year ago
109
a year ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
7 months ago
26
7 months ago
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption? When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
Citation Needed
Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky...
11 months ago
111
11 months ago
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky goes to trial, and some more ill-received blockchain games suggest “GameFi” has an uncertain future.
Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Services Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a...
4 months ago
16
4 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 12 and DOW futures are down 80 (fair value). WTI futures at $58.29 per barrel and Brent at...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #174 Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions,...
a year ago
59
a year ago
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions, The AI Gold Rush, 100th anniversary of Hitler's beer hall putsch, The Federalist Papers
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability...
6 months ago
32
6 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability Headwind, U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 3.4% in February (pay site). Continuing January’s trend, market strength was at the two far ends of the affordability scale, as entry-price cars...
The Diff
"Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question Plus! Solve for X + X; Refactoring; AI and Distribution; How Models Think; The AI Business Model
5 months ago
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles! I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how  a runner on the Oregon...
11 months ago
21
11 months ago
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how  a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Mazdak
Teens Obsessed with YouTube and TikTok: New Survey Reveals Usage Trends Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew...
a year ago
69
a year ago
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew Research Center. This highlights the immense popularity of these video-streaming platforms among younger generations. Here are the key takeaways from the survey:
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap? I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
over a year ago
136
over a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #183 Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing,...
a year ago
73
a year ago
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing, Rivian, AI's morality, AI bubble?, How James Longstreet defied the South after the war
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million...
7 months ago
50
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up. Total starts were down 4.4% in...
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Ph.D.-Level Super Agents The AI landscape is evolving at breakneck speed, and OpenAI is leading the charge.
7 months ago
Mazdak
5 best investments during high interest rates Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When...
a year ago
45
a year ago
Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds declines, and stocks can become more volatile. However, there are still a number of investments that can perform well in a high interest...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
8 months ago
50
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the PCE price index to increase 0.2%, and...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q...
4 months ago
31
4 months ago
From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 11th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the...
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns – Part 2 I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on...
a year ago
52
a year ago
I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on answers. Through these posts, I’ll build a toy GPT from scratch using Python and unpack everything that goes inside the LLMs, including the math it uses. This is my third post on my...
Calculated Risk
April 4th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
What happens if the US loses reserve currency status? A reserve currency is the currency that people all over the world prefer to store their savings...
a year ago
18
a year ago
A reserve currency is the currency that people all over the world prefer to store their savings in. Today that currency is the US dollar. From the Middle East, to Asia, to South America — Whether it's a family that needs to keep some money around just in case or a country, most...
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
a year ago
114
a year ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
12 months ago
119
12 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
oftwominds-Charles...
It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that...
4 months ago
55
4 months ago
I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that I've maintained them. It was 20 years ago today--well, actually, yesterday--that I launched this blog into the swirling rapids of the Web. As we know, time flies when you're...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160 Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
over a year ago
49
over a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
The Diff
Two Kinds of News Business Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 10% in December From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index...
8 months ago
36
8 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 10.2% in December to 212.0 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 192.3. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.2%...
FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
a year ago
97
a year ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in December; Core CPI increased 0.2% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a...
7 months ago
35
7 months ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
The Rational Walk
Free Articles! All articles older than six months are now free to read.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Housing March 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 30.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
5 months ago
39
5 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 7.0% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing seasonally. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
6 months ago
30
6 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 460 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The...
6 months ago
24
6 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The employment index increased to 53.9%, from 52.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 53.5% February 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Musings on Markets
The Power of Expectations: Nvidia's Earnings and the Market Reaction! Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled for after the market closed. That call, at first sight, contained exceptionally good news, with revenues and earnings coming in at stratospheric levels, and above expectations,...
Mazdak
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
a year ago
38
a year ago
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
Calculated Risk
Benchmarking the U.S. economy Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! Benchmarking the U.S. economy that...
7 months ago
45
7 months ago
Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! Benchmarking the U.S. economy that President Donald Trump is set to inherit • While the U.S. economy still has challenges, especially lingering inflation and poor consumer sentiment, many important economic metrics...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Moon, Welch, Robinhood, Heterodoxy, Bots, Liquidity, Trade, Google
4 months ago
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
9 months ago
45
9 months ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights! Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
10 months ago
107
10 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...