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The Rational Walk
The Digest #216 Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
11 months ago
97
11 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
Seeking Wisdom
What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University....
over a year ago
40
over a year ago
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University. Being his student since 2011, I realized my dream by sitting in his class for 3.5 days. Prof. Bakshi taught us around 20 different models from Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦 The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
a year ago
49
a year ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 6% in January From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI),...
6 months ago
37
6 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 5.6% in January to 225.7 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 213.6. Over the month, commercial planning increased 4.2% while...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
7 months ago
60
7 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.315 million SAAR, up from 1.289 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase...
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024 At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
8 months ago
55
8 months ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Richmond Fed...
8 months ago
56
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26...
5 months ago
29
5 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Sales in February (4.26 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from the previous month and were 1.2% below the February 2024 sales rate. This breaks the...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Durable Goods Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
5 months ago
50
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.
Calculated Risk
1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024...
7 months ago
42
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 A brief excerpt: Although total housing starts decreased 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, completions increased sharply...
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦) Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
a year ago
97
a year ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
Citation Needed
Issue 60 – Raging in favor of the machine The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
a year ago
Mazdak
Sam Altman Returns to OpenAI as CEO In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman has been reinstated as CEO of OpenAI, just days after being...
a year ago
68
a year ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman has been reinstated as CEO of OpenAI, just days after being fired by the company's board. The move comes after a whirlwind few days that saw Altman's supporters rally to his side, with many threatening to quit if he was not brought back.
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
4 months ago
29
4 months ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I'm still not yet...
Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty" in March The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39,...
5 months ago
25
5 months ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, down from 42 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty Economic...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 10% YoY in December This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
8 months ago
52
8 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Commoncog
What Process Improvement in Education Looks Like What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
11 months ago
77
11 months ago
What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should be able to do this in your own org contexts.
Mazdak
Amazon Glasses: Seeing the Future of Delivery Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages,...
9 months ago
55
9 months ago
Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages, and even take photos of deliveries as proof for customers.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
6 months ago
28
6 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 21,...
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Managing, Valuation and Investing Implications! As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
a year ago
22
a year ago
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in...
5 months ago
35
5 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
8 months ago
Commoncog
The Story of Samsung How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s...
6 months ago
52
6 months ago
How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s economy.
balajis.com
Network School 2025 Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.80 million SAAR in December Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End...
8 months ago
53
8 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site). December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a fourth quarter rebound after demand dropped in Q2...
FIRE v London
May 2025: market springtime I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to...
2 months ago
46
2 months ago
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to the Isle of Wight, my first visit to a dairy farm in 40+ years, a lovely trip to the Cotswolds, and more. If you can identify any of the locations above feel free to shout… Continue...
Commoncog
The Heart of Innovation: Why Most Startups Fail A theory of demand (and product market fit) that explains it all, and does NOT require ‘pain’ to do...
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
6 months ago
32
6 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 February. ... 16-22 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 60.3%...
The Diff
Credentialism and the Money Illusion Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and...
8 months ago
50
8 months ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and Downside of Ads; Backcasting Returns
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the...
7 months ago
37
7 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, an increase of 4,000 from the...
Citation Needed
Issue 84 – Rogue overseas support agents Coinbase’s substantial data breach coincides with a convenient terms of service update, while the...
3 months ago
36
3 months ago
Coinbase’s substantial data breach coincides with a convenient terms of service update, while the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill regains momentum in the Senate
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.2% YoY as...
6 months ago
61
6 months ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.2% YoY as of January 2025, down from 4.4% YoY in December. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
The Rational Walk
Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable...
10 months ago
71
10 months ago
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable majority in the electoral college but a likely majority in the national popular vote as well.
Citation Needed
Trump’s Project 2025 ghostwriters Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked...
7 months ago
61
7 months ago
Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked Trump devotees are writing policies at federal agencies.
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in December 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
a year ago
130
a year ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors! In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
10 months ago
23
10 months ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
FIRE v London
July ’25: New high watermark There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important...
3 weeks ago
19
3 weeks ago
There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July. Politically/economically I fear the most important event in the UK was the Labour government’s failure to enact its intended welfare reforms. This leaves the government a) unable to control spending b) unable to nudge the economy...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic outlook worsened considerably" Fed's Beige Book Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, but uncertainty...
4 months ago
37
4 months ago
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, but uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports. Just five Districts saw slight growth, three Districts noted activity was relatively unchanged, and the remaining four...
balajis.com
#4 - The Winklevoss Twins and Balaji Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is...
over a year ago
38
over a year ago
Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is losing crypto, while other countries like the UAE and Japan are winning web3. OUTLINE 0:00 - I'm 6'5", 220, and there's two of me! 0:58 - Crypto flippening from America to Asia
Calculated Risk
April 18th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 months ago
25
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not? Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
8 months ago
56
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Housing Starts for January. The consensus is for 1.394 million SAAR, down from 1.499 million SAAR. Architecture Billings Index for January (a leading...
The Rational Walk
Herodotus Herodotus is often described as the father of history for his narrative of the Greco-Persian Wars of...
a year ago
73
a year ago
Herodotus is often described as the father of history for his narrative of the Greco-Persian Wars of the fifth century BC.
Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q4 Flow of Funds Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 221 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus...
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.1% YoY as...
5 months ago
25
5 months ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.1% YoY as of February 2025, down from 4.2% YoY in January. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
a year ago
23
a year ago
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
Mazdak
DeepSeek Ban in Australian, Google Reverses Stance on AI Weaponization, ... 1.
7 months ago