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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Durable Goods Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050 By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the...
a month ago
The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
a year ago
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
3 weeks ago
9
3 weeks ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
Calculated Risk
A Comment on GDPNow On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed went strongly negative in the most recent reading: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1 This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
105
a year ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
3 weeks ago
9
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for February.   The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At The...
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased...
a month ago
12
a month ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased in 2024 Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persisted emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. From the FDIC: The...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #223 Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected...
4 months ago
46
4 months ago
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Market Prices as Political Predictors, The Three Indias, Semiconductor Progress
The Rational Walk
The Theban Plays The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot...
6 months ago
76
6 months ago
The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot has captivated audiences for nearly 2,500 years.
Calculated Risk
March 21st COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
5
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Diff
Central Banks and the Guidance Paradox Plus! Crowded Trades; CoreWeave; The Bots; Accounting; Political Meme Stocks
2 weeks ago
Mazdak
The 7 Steps to Becoming a Top Investor Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going...
a year ago
25
a year ago
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going to share with you the seven steps that I believe are essential for becoming a top investor. Step 1: Develop a Clear Investment Philosophy The first step to becoming a great...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross...
a month ago
11
a month ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S....
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Moody's:...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Update: The...
Moneyness
How should money laundering laws apply to DeFi? Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them? DeFi,...
6 months ago
5
6 months ago
Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them? DeFi, or decentralized finance, is an emerging segment of the broader financial industry that delivers traditional financial services, say like trading or lending, using a novel type of...
FIRE v London
I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes? From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from...
9 months ago
105
9 months ago
From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from the London School of Economics in 2017 after which I went through the hardest few years of my life mentally and ended up unemployed or in dead-end low paid jobs. I currently work...
balajis.com
#1 - Vitalik Buterin on Starting New Countries, Upgrading Ethereum, and Improving Yourself Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new...
over a year ago
21
over a year ago
Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new countries, improving yourself, and upgrading Ethereum. OUTLINE 00:00 - Introduction 01:27 - A brief history of Ethereum 16:54 - The DAO hack 20:32 - The Devcon 2 attack 33:24 - The...
FIRE v London
Compounding, type II Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of...
5 months ago
72
5 months ago
Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of compound annual growth rates is something I feel quite viscerally, the more so with each month that I track my portfolio. But I’ve been struck recently by a radical improvement in...
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
a year ago
81
a year ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM Services Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in January, up...
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
over a year ago
74
over a year ago
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds were thus able to hold onto the gains from last week with some additional improvement today. The average mortgage lender wasn't eager to adjust rates, however, with the top tier...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #196 Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on...
12 months ago
74
12 months ago
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on Disney's proxy war, Lessons from Paul Graham, Dunbar's number
FIRE v London
Feb ’25: The top comes off What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding...
2 weeks ago
12
2 weeks ago
What’s in the news? The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it. From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened What’s going on with me? My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city...
Commoncog
Lesley Sim on Skill Acceleration in Ultimate Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World...
a year ago
100
a year ago
Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World Championship Team in 2020, her approach to skill acceleration, and why a teaching technique designed for dogs and dolphins works just as well on humans!
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.6% Annual Gain in October 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
8 months ago
7
8 months ago
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Sales in December (4.24 million SAAR) were up 2.2% from the previous month and were 9.3% above the December 2023 sales rate. This was the third consecutive...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 212,750. emphasis added The...
Musings on Markets
Beat your Bot: Building your moat against AI It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest...
7 months ago
8
7 months ago
It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest mover, but Open AI introduced the world to ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. While ChatGPT itself represented a low-tech variation of AI, it opened the door to AI not only as a business...
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in November From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending...
2 months ago
35
2 months ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November...
Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
The Rational Walk
There’s Always a Reason Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an...
a year ago
23
a year ago
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an important option for customers chronically short on cash.
Calculated Risk
Comments on February Employment Report The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and...
3 weeks ago
9
3 weeks ago
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to...
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven: The Technicals A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in...
a year ago
balajis.com
The Network State Book A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
19
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.80 million SAAR in December Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End...
2 months ago
33
2 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site). December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a fourth quarter rebound after demand dropped in Q2...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #181 Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò...
a year ago
46
a year ago
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò Machiavelli, internal vs. external goals, Safe withdrawal rates, Protecting your time
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.50% as of November 30, 2024. According to MBA’s...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 months ago
40
3 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 13,...
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024 The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
4 months ago
65
4 months ago
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
a month ago
19
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
10
a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Citation Needed
Issue 43 – Laser eyes Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
7 months ago
104
7 months ago
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
Musings on Markets
The Sugar Daddy Effect? Assessing Corporate venture capital, Sovereign funds and Green Energy! It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would...
5 months ago
6
5 months ago
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would offend some people, as sexist or worse. I briefly considering expanding the title to  "Sugar Daddies and Molasses Mommies", but that just sounds awkward, or even replacing the words...
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights! Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
5 months ago
68
5 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #179 Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
a year ago
74
a year ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: Here a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.09 million...
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
7 months ago
91
7 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
67
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
Farnam Street
Why Write Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
over a year ago
89
over a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 10% YoY in December This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
2 months ago
37
2 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
FIRE v London
Mar ’23: Harvesting tax losses March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in...
a year ago
51
a year ago
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in the French Alps (finally) having great conditions – sadly too late for me to enjoy. Further north, it’s been a month of big change in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon, the...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
FIRE v London
Aug ’23: … A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One...
a year ago
60
a year ago
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One was the death of Russian mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin – a larger-than-life modern day warlord, responsible for the ‘little green men’ at the start of the Russian/Ukraine war in 2014,...
Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
10 months ago
125
10 months ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
Mazdak
OpenAI Ventures into Robotics, Grok App Launch, Trump Convicted, and US Jobs Report Highlights Big robotics news from OpenAI 🤖
2 months ago
FIRE v London
Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the so-called “Pakistani grooming gangs” scandal here in the UK, with Elon Musk weighing in. At the time it seemed remarkable but one month later, as I write this, I am pleased to say I can’t...
Calculated Risk
The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates A brief excerpt: Housing economist Tom Lawler has written extensively on the neutral rate. He has argued that the neutral rate has increased back to...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #180 Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
a year ago
98
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
The Rational Walk
The Digest #215 Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
6 months ago
76
6 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR:...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January, I mentioned that the median price typically bottoms seasonally in January (contracts signed mostly in November and December)...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.   However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut at the March...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #200 Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
10 months ago
96
10 months ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in February, Intermodal Up From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Uncertainty shapes economic cycles — fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 6.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 January. ... 12-18 January 2025 (percentage change from...
balajis.com
The Balaji Chat A forum for balajis.com subscribers.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
a year ago
89
a year ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
4 days ago
4
4 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
The Rational Walk
American Scripture A review of Pauline Maier's book, "American Scripture", which details the conditions leading up to...
9 months ago
60
9 months ago
A review of Pauline Maier's book, "American Scripture", which details the conditions leading up to the drafting of the Declaration of Independence.
Mazdak
How DeepSeek, a Chinese AI Startup, is Challenging the Titans of Silicon Valley In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western giants like OpenAI, Google, and Meta.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 221,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous...
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance) Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
9 months ago
Moneyness
The end of El Salvador's bitcoin payments experiment Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use bitcoin for payments. Last month, four years later, it notched another record: it became the first country to rescind bitcoin's status as required tender. This backtracking was the...
Moneyness
Canadian guilt, Russian oil We Canadians are overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin, so when the CBC published an expose last...
2 months ago
11
2 months ago
We Canadians are overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin, so when the CBC published an expose last week about "banned Russian oil" sneaking into Canada, it was read in despair by most of us. What an awful failure of Canadian sanctions policy.  As with a lot of sanctions...
The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
9 months ago
96
9 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.0% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 days ago
4
3 days ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 March. ... 16-22 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 66.0% (+1.0%) emphasis...
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
a year ago
75
a year ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Mazdak
The Unexpected Saviour of Journalism In a digital landscape drowning in AI-generated noise, an unlikely hero emerges: generative AI...
4 months ago
Mazdak
TikTok Becomes the First App to Reach $6 Billion in Annual Consumer Spending In 2024, the short-form video platform, along with its Chinese counterpart Douyin, became the first...
a month ago
14
a month ago
In 2024, the short-form video platform, along with its Chinese counterpart Douyin, became the first non-game app to generate $6 billion in annual consumer spending.
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
8 months ago
109
8 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
a year ago
88
a year ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
2 months ago
34
2 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 21 December. ... 15-21 December 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): Occupancy:...
The Diff
There's More Than One Efficient Market Paradox Plus! Reciprocal Tariffs; AI Purgatory; Payments and Credit; LinkedInFluencers; Efficient Markets
6 days ago
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
3 months ago
40
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November, up 3.3% from October’s preliminary pace and up 4.6% from...
Bits about Money
Credit cards as a legacy system Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences...
over a year ago
22
over a year ago
Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences in the present day. But change is possible.
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized? Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
3 months ago
46
3 months ago
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals? The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
a year ago
41
a year ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage rates were already in line with the lowest levels since December 18th by last Thursday. They dropped to the best levels since December 12th a day later. end of last week. 30 year...
The Rational Walk
Negative Lollapalooza Effects Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons...
a year ago
33
a year ago
Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons from Charlie Munger's psychology of human misjudgment to investing.
The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
a month ago
The Rational Walk
Buffett Resumes Occidental Purchases Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
a year ago
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
9 months ago
111
9 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
The Rational Walk
By diverse means we arrive at the same end Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
a year ago
Moneyness
It's time to trash the "store of value" function of money When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that...
3 months ago
7
3 months ago
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that money has three functions: medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Maybe it’s time for educators to throw out this triumvirate. It’s not very accurate.  We need a...
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
5 months ago
67
5 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #217 Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The...
6 months ago
60
6 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The Fed's Inflationary Bias, Jimmy Carter at 100, Sam Altman, Bruno Leoni, Thermopylae
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down...
2 weeks ago
7
2 weeks ago
From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down two tenths to 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Mar 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.3% last week. [Mar...
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
46
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
Mazdak
Free Press or Bezos Press? The Washington Post Stays Silent This episode examines the Washington Post's controversial decision to no longer endorse presidential...
5 months ago
53
5 months ago
This episode examines the Washington Post's controversial decision to no longer endorse presidential candidates, a move that has sparked outrage and accusations of cowardice, especially given the perceived threat to democracy posed by one of the candidates.
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.3% in November; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all! If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
a month ago
12
a month ago
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 weeks ago
11
3 weeks ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine? Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence....
10 months ago
107
10 months ago
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence. Recent development at Daily Journal raise concerns.
balajis.com
The Mirrortable Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
over a year ago
22
over a year ago
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: New Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
11
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is that new home sales decreased to 678 thousand SAAR, down from 698 thousand in December.
The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
3 months ago
Mazdak
How to Build Wealth: 5 Key Principles Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is...
a year ago
23
a year ago
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is possible for anyone who is willing to put in the work. Here are 5 key principles to help you build wealth: Live below your means. This is the single most important thing you can do to...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in...
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
9 months ago
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in...
a week ago
7
a week ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the...
Mazdak
Inflation is Cooling Off: A Glimpse of Economic Stability ☀️ 📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic....
a year ago
40
a year ago
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic. The moderation of inflation is a significant development that alleviates pressure on consumers and provides central banks with some breathing room. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's...
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
10 months ago
125
10 months ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs! When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
a year ago
66
a year ago
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’ It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
over a year ago
105
over a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
3 months ago
Mazdak
The Growth Rocket Fuel of Low Gross Margin Businesses When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins....
a year ago
29
a year ago
When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins. After all, a high gross margin means that a business is making a lot of money on each sale. However, there are a number of successful businesses that have low gross margins. These...
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. ...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data. New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 664 thousand in November. Dallas Fed...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #219 Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam...
5 months ago
66
5 months ago
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam Zell, UK Bargains, Gregorys Coffee, Free Speech Under Assault, Dopamine and Addiction
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
a year ago
105
a year ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
balajis.com
Bond Villain When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #163 Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's...
a year ago
25
a year ago
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's future, Nvidia, AI, Interpreting medical studies, Why Doomberg left Twitter, Jimmy Buffett, and more...
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023! I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
a year ago
8
a year ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
Calculated Risk
Initial Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2% Range From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)...
a month ago
22
a month ago
From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate at +2.3%. We launched our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate at +2.3%, in line with the advance reading. [Jan 31st estimate] emphasis...
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
46
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. ...
The Rational Walk
American Prometheus The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a...
a year ago
34
a year ago
The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a cautionary tale of human nature that holds timeless lessons.
Mazdak
Loonie on the Brink: Can Canada Escape US Monetary Policy? The Canadian and American economies are deeply intertwined.
5 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
9 months ago
104
9 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
a year ago
105
a year ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
Mazdak
Manus: The AI Agent That Could Change Everything On March 6, the global AI landscape shifted.
3 weeks ago
Mazdak
Meta's AI & Reuters: A New Era of News? Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading...
5 months ago
31
5 months ago
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading global news provider, to bring real-time news updates directly to users through Meta's AI chatbot.
Calculated Risk
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All! High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!) beach in Newport. Best Wishes to All!
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
When People Outperform Data People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can...
4 months ago
9
4 months ago
People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can make that analysis unnecessary and can even outperform it. Examples: 1. Amazon did not make money between its 1994 founding through 2002. There was no financial or business...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Interest Rates Since the Federal Reserve Began Cutting Rates From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on graph for larger image. 10-Year T1PS Yield
3 months ago
Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
6 months ago
88
6 months ago
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more...
2 months ago
9
2 months ago
It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more evidence on the limited power that central banks have to alter the trajectory of market interest rates. We started 2024 with the consensus wisdom that rates would drop during the year,...
Mazdak
Big Tech Layoffs, Musk Acquiring TikTok, ChatGPT's New Features, ... Meta is executing a strategic 5% workforce reduction, but this isn't your typical layoff.
2 months ago
The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
a year ago
76
a year ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2023 Results Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices,...
a year ago
28
a year ago
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices, Clayton Homes, Apple, and share repurchases.
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate; "Uncertainty Increased" Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
a week ago
7
a week ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. maintain the target range for the federal...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 25.1% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For December, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 22.0% YoY, but still down 15.7% compared to the 2017 to...
The Diff
Moderation, Inside and Out Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More...
2 months ago
35
2 months ago
Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More Round-Trips
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did." Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
9 months ago
6
9 months ago
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation! In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023,...
a year ago
6
a year ago
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #183 Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing,...
a year ago
55
a year ago
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing, Rivian, AI's morality, AI bubble?, How James Longstreet defied the South after the war
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL...
a month ago
17
a month ago
This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August...
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
3 months ago
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire...
a year ago
52
a year ago
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices was not a party to the agreement but its business model will still be affected.
The Rational Walk
The Use of Letters As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It...
a year ago
23
a year ago
As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It makes no sense to refuse to learn vicariously.
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 13th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 23.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory will...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3 During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
73
a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
Moneyness
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
2 months ago
8
2 months ago
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February,...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade...
a month ago
18
a month ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade deficit​. ----- Monday, February 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. 10:00 AM:...
Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
a year ago
92
a year ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
a year ago
21
a year ago
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
a year ago
91
a year ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2 This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
79
a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦) Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
a year ago
76
a year ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in February 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
Mazdak
Who Should You Ask for Feedback? Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new...
a year ago
27
a year ago
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new ideas, and stay ahead of the competition. But not all feedback is created equal. If you want to get the most out of feedback, you need to ask the right people.
The Diff
What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up? Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 14 Percent in 2024; 33% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 14.2 Percent Total bankruptcy filings rose 14.2...
a month ago
17
a month ago
From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 14.2 Percent Total bankruptcy filings rose 14.2 percent, with increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2024. This continues an ongoing rebound in filings after more than a...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 18 and DOW futures are up 88 (fair value). WTI futures at $71.00 per barrel and Brent at $74.66 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices...
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
3 months ago
68
3 months ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
Mazdak
Minimize Taxes, Maximize Inheritance: A Canadian Guide to Estate Planning with Real Estate For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key...
a year ago
49
a year ago
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key concerns. In this context, real estate, often the largest asset, presents unique challenges and opportunities. While strategies like adding children to titles were once popular,...
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI January 2025: Architecture firm billings remain soft to start the new year The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.6 for the month, slightly above the...
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
97
a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
The Rational Walk
Musical Chairs at Dollar General Investors were euphoric when Dollar General brought back its former CEO less than a year after his...
a year ago
40
a year ago
Investors were euphoric when Dollar General brought back its former CEO less than a year after his retirement. A sober look at the situation reveals significant concerns.
Citation Needed
Issue 48 – Bitcoin has "no chance" of going to the moon Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed...
a month ago
11
a month ago
A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of...
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
8 months ago
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
a year ago
139
a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in February On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and...
a week ago
6
a week ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.1 percent from February 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
The Diff
What Would a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Actually Do? Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State:...
4 months ago
20
4 months ago
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State: Beauty Filters Edition
Mazdak
Threads Takes Europe!: Meta's Microblogging App Makes a Big Move Calling all European Tweeters! 🇪🇺 Meta's microblogging platform, Threads, is officially landing on...
a year ago
42
a year ago
Calling all European Tweeters! 🇪🇺 Meta's microblogging platform, Threads, is officially landing on your shores. Months after its initial launch in the U.S., Threads is finally spreading its wings and embracing the vast and vibrant online communities of Europe. Mark Zuckerberg...
Commoncog
The Shape of a Technological Window Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how...
over a year ago
82
over a year ago
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how he used it over the course of his career. Note: this is a follow-up to and an update for the Commoncog Case Library Beta.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales Fannie and Freddie: Single...
The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 12, 2024 The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. ----- Monday, January...
2 months ago
35
2 months ago
The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. ----- Monday, January 13th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 14th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. Producer Price Index for December...
oftwominds-Charles...
Here Come the Chaos Monkeys The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload,...
a week ago
10
a week ago
The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins. Chaos Monkeys excel at distraction and extortion. They appear suddenly, leaping about in disorienting mayhem,...
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing Lessons learned from a quarter century of active investing, along with annual performance...
2 months ago
Citation Needed
Wind the clock A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
4 months ago
The Rational Walk
Too Clever by Half! The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving...
a year ago
39
a year ago
The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving quickly. It's useful to ask, "What would Charlie Munger say?"
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.8% Annual Gain in November 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
What Do Brontosauruses Know about Uncoordinated Conspiracies? Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly) Let’s pretend for a...
6 months ago
9
6 months ago
Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly) Let’s pretend for a moment that brontosauruses are made up, despite them being accepted by the public and scientific community, having ample evidence for their existence, and appearing in museums all...
Moneyness
How my views on financial privacy have evolved over a decade I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this...
4 months ago
6
4 months ago
I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this blog. Over the past decade, my views have shifted significantly—here's how and why. Rereading my earliest mentions of financial privacy, they now seem a bit... idealistic? extreme?...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides,...
5 months ago
32
5 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides, Sophocles, Persian Fire, Hillbilly Elegy, and more.
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024 At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
2 days ago
3
2 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
54
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
7 months ago
66
7 months ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National...
3 months ago
47
3 months ago
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. ----- Tuesday, December 24th ----- 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4%...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.8% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 weeks ago
6
2 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
The Diff
AI Interfaces Engineer Serendipity Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It...
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19
a month ago
Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It Sports Betting; Retaliatory Tariffs
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.7% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP...
The Diff
The Two-Sided Uncertainty Tax Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free...
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free Trade; Private and Public
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December,...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December, unchanged from November’s preliminary pace and up 7.0% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat higher YOY % gain, reflecting this...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 7,...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
3 months ago
Commoncog
Charlie Munger’s Supply Demand Curve Puzzle What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high...
a year ago
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
over a year ago
79
over a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024 A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
10 months ago
The Diff
When and How Will AI Offer People Search? Plus! Consumption Patterns; Training Data; Grift Confluence; Marketing and Piracy; Convergence
a month ago
Mazdak
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
a year ago
26
a year ago
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below...
a month ago
9
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
Mazdak
Today's Top Tech News - Amazon's Discount Store Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
4 months ago
Mazdak
The Dangers of AI "Answers" From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring...
3 months ago
45
3 months ago
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring the lines between fact and fiction.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 214 thousand from 207 thousand last week.
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
12 months ago
110
12 months ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197 Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
11 months ago
124
11 months ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
Commoncog
Focus on the Cases Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
72
over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
Mazdak
YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025? YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP)...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth...
Mazdak
Meta's Oakley Smart Glasses, TikTok's Revenue Nearly Doubled YouTube's Last Year, Hidden Hashtags on... “What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
2 months ago
oftwominds-Charles...
Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New...
2 weeks ago
10
2 weeks ago
The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New Roaring 20s of exhilarating expansion, or will we suffer a Great Depression 2.0? Gordon Long and I explore this binary in our latest podcast. Why is the next decade a binary of...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.3% in December (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3%...
2 months ago
35
2 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November. The employment index was at 45.3%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 52.5%, up from 50.4%. Manufacturing...
The Rational Walk
The Thirty Second Mind Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #166 The media landscape, Dollar General's meltdown, The written word, Damodaran on Instacart, The human...
a year ago
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a year ago
The media landscape, Dollar General's meltdown, The written word, Damodaran on Instacart, The human condition, Herb Kelleher, Merger arbitrage, and more.
FIRE v London
10 year review Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years....
over a year ago
56
over a year ago
Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years. But 10 years ago I started tracking my portfolio in a consistent, monthly way – unitising its performance so I could measure its return. It wasn’t until 2015 that I started this...
Calculated Risk
Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise...
a week ago
6
a week ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise with FHA Performance in the Spotlight • The national delinquency rate edged up 5 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in February; that’s up 19 bps from a year ago but still 32 bps below where...
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
4 months ago
30
4 months ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
84
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Calculated Risk
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous...
a year ago
62
a year ago
How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous philosopher and mathematician, was lying in his bed, eyes fixed on a fly on the ceiling. As he pondered how to accurately describe the fly’s position, Descartes visualized the...
Mazdak
Trudeau's resignation, Dana White joining Meta's board, YouTube taking on TikTok, SuperIntelligence... After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime...
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
Mazdak
Google & Microsoft $1M donation to Trump inauguration fund, Microsoft job cuts, Amazon ad business... Google, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and even Tim Cook are each donating $1M to President-elect Trump’s...
2 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 79 – Mundus sine Caesaribus The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal...
a week ago
10
a week ago
The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal to its target demographic by bashing trans people
Calculated Risk
President Washington's Farewell Address I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief...
a month ago
13
a month ago
I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief excerpt: To the efficacy and permanency of your Union, a Government for the whole is indispensable. No alliances, however strict, between the parts can be an adequate substitute; they...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up. Total starts were down 4.4% in...
oftwominds-Charles...
Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable...
a month ago
13
a month ago
The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable speculative asset in the global financialization casino. It can't be both. We tend to think of housing becoming unaffordable as a matter of land prices, zoning and the cost of...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
11 months ago
125
11 months ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier...
2 months ago
34
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
over a year ago
26
over a year ago
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
Calculated Risk
December 27th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
balajis.com
Only Newsom Can Go To China If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
a year ago
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable...
4 months ago
52
4 months ago
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable majority in the electoral college but a likely majority in the national popular vote as well.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160 Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
a year ago
30
a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Economy of Denial: Addiction, Extortion, Deception Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the...
a week ago
8
a week ago
Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the most opinionated become circumspect when the discussion turns to The Addiction Economy, for the term The Addiction Economy calls things by their real name, which disrupts our...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
a month ago
16
a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 February. ... 2-8 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 55.9%...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 213,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a month ago
16
a month ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
3 months ago
30
3 months ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
9 months ago
113
9 months ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge...
8 hours ago
1
8 hours ago
Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change...
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
a year ago
120
a year ago
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New...
a month ago
16
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New Week Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 2024. Top tier 30yr fixed rates...
Mazdak
Cloudflare 2024 Internet Report Analysis Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in...
3 months ago
44
3 months ago
Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in internet traffic, security, and adoption.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
4 months ago
The Rational Walk
Primary Sources Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible citizens.
oftwominds-Charles...
Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We...
2 weeks ago
16
2 weeks ago
We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We inhabit an Addiction Economy. We all know the cure for addiction is to go Cold Turkey: drop the denial and delusion of control, and excise the source of the addiction from one's...
Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.5% from the bottom six weeks ago in January. The first graph shows the seasonal...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a month ago
13
a month ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023 were: “We've already started the process of where that capacity is coming out.  A lot of it transborder, big drop in Canadian traffic to go into the U.S.”. This could impact hotel occupancy...
The Diff
The Large- and Small-Home Market Advantages Plus! Who Bears Ban Risk?; Carvana and Short-Selling Economics; VC; Productivity; A More Normal...
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 0.59%, up from 0.56% November. Freddie's rate is up...
Calculated Risk
Monday Night Futures Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair value).
Moneyness
The intensifying effort to isolate Russia's banks Last week the U.S. government expanded the coverage of its Russian secondary sanctions program to...
9 months ago
7
9 months ago
Last week the U.S. government expanded the coverage of its Russian secondary sanctions program to encompass most of Russia's banks. It's a very big step, one that has been long-awaited by sanctions watchers, and will likely have significant repercussions for Russia and its...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Stoicism of the Caregiver These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of...
3 weeks ago
13
3 weeks ago
These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of caregiving don't get much attention. They're not part of the news flow, and the day-to-day grind of caregiving doesn't lend itself to the self-promotional zeitgeist of social media....
oftwominds-Charles...
Corporations as Modern-Day Warlords Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an apology to all those whose blood pressure will skyrocket upon reading this thought experiment. As we all know, science--the real thing, not "science"--advances via informed...
Mazdak
How Big Tech Could Lose Everything to Appease Trump In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald...
5 months ago
37
5 months ago
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald Trump, a man who has openly attacked these companies, return to power.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus,...
9 months ago
73
9 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus, Herodotus, the Odyssey, and American Scripture.
Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
9 months ago
The Rational Walk
GEICO Prioritizes Profits Over Market Share Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price...
a year ago
32
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price of ceding market share that will be costly to regain in the future.
Mazdak
TFSA Talk: Unlocking Tax-Free Wealth 🇨🇦 Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
4 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
a year ago
116
a year ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
Citation Needed
“Wait, not like that”: Free and open access in the age of generative AI The real threat isn’t AI using open knowledge — it’s AI companies killing the projects that make...
2 weeks ago
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
4 months ago
6
4 months ago
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy. All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts and Recessions This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading...
a month ago
15
a month ago
This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: “On a 12-month average basis, .. Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak .. Housing is the basis of one of my...
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
a year ago
109
a year ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
Commoncog
What is Power? Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing...
4 months ago
59
4 months ago
Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing markets. A members-only mini series.
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in November Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in...
2 months ago
35
2 months ago
Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in doing what was previously thought to be impossible. It's not so much a unified theory of extreme effort as it is a comprehensive refutation of the existence of such theories. There...
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI) Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
a year ago
107
a year ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
balajis.com
The Network State Podcast with Balaji The Network State Podcast with Balaji Srinivasan is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Anchor.fm,...
over a year ago
23
over a year ago
The Network State Podcast with Balaji Srinivasan is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Anchor.fm, and thenetworkstate.com/podcast.
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The...
a month ago
15
a month ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
The Diff
There is an "AI Factor," and It's Worth Hedging Plus! Sweeteners; The American Difference; AI Experiments; Media Relations; Sanctions are Hard,...
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.2% Week-over-week, Up 26.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  Inventory is now...
3 months ago
31
3 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 9.7% below the peak for the year (9 weeks ago). Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in January or February. The first graph...
Calculated Risk
February 14th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Moving Sideways Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
11 months ago
91
11 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
a year ago