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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 months ago
24

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Mazdak
Meta Fined & FBI on Polymarket Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
8 months ago
64

Meta Fined & FBI on Polymarket

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
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Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2021; Year in Review I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We...
over a year ago
18

Being an Amazon Seller in 2021; Year in Review

from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We did $8.8 million in sales in 2021. This article is going to tell you what it was like to run this business in 2021 vs. 2020, amidst threats like the Amazon aggregators, supply chain...
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balajis.com
#1 - Vitalik Buterin on Starting New Countries, Upgrading Ethereum, and Improving Yourself Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new...
over a year ago
28

#1 - Vitalik Buterin on Starting New Countries, Upgrading Ethereum, and Improving Yourself

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new countries, improving yourself, and upgrading Ethereum. OUTLINE 00:00 - Introduction 01:27 - A brief history of Ethereum 16:54 - The DAO hack 20:32 - The Devcon 2 attack 33:24 - The...
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Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage...
6 months ago
40

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.50% as of November 30, 2024. According to MBA’s...
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The Diff
There is an "AI Factor," and It's Worth Hedging Plus! Sweeteners; The American Difference; AI Experiments; Media Relations; Sanctions are Hard,...
5 months ago
31

There is an "AI Factor," and It's Worth Hedging

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Plus! Sweeteners; The American Difference; AI Experiments; Media Relations; Sanctions are Hard, Continued
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Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
over a year ago
96

Setting the Business Expertise Series Free

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
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Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
6 months ago
31

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). ...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2023 Results — Overview This article provides a 30,000 foot overview of Berkshire Hathaway's results for 2023 with a focus...
a year ago
61

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2023 Results — Overview

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This article provides a 30,000 foot overview of Berkshire Hathaway's results for 2023 with a focus on the components net operating earnings.
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Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.0% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up...
6 months ago
46

Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.0% Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Jan 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6%...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #221 Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro:...
8 months ago
68

The Digest #221

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro: Success or Failure?, Berkshire in the 1960s, Whole Foods, Black Diamond, Merck, Wormholes
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The Rational Walk
Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision...
a year ago
153

Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision crushing symbols of art and culture.
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FIRE v London
Feeling broke My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
a year ago
137

Feeling broke

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
6 months ago
35

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
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Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
5 months ago
27

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #157 Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The...
a year ago
30

The Digest #157

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The comfort crisis, Fairfax, Markel, Vision Pro's breakthrough, iPhone hacks
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Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
94

The Two Types of Data Analysis

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
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Citation Needed
POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still...
9 months ago
89

POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still maintaining a presence on third-party platforms.
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FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
a year ago
131

Mar ’24: A towering influence

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
a year ago
94

Berkshire Hathaway Energy

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
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Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
11 months ago
16

Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
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Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket? The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
a year ago
102

Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
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Commoncog
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
a year ago
66

Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
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Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 30th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.5% Week-over-week, Up 26.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will...
6 months ago
47

Housing Dec 30th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.5% Week-over-week, Up 26.8% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in late January or February. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
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Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns – Part 2 I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on...
a year ago
46

How a Machine Learns – Part 2

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on answers. Through these posts, I’ll build a toy GPT from scratch using Python and unpack everything that goes inside the LLMs, including the math it uses. This is my third post on my...
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Citation Needed
Issue 72 – A seat at the table The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government...
6 months ago
67

Issue 72 – A seat at the table

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government continues to worsen, and several media outlets botch their crypto reporting at a time it’s needed most.
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Moneyness
How my views on financial privacy have evolved over a decade I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this...
7 months ago
17

How my views on financial privacy have evolved over a decade

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this blog. Over the past decade, my views have shifted significantly—here's how and why. Rereading my earliest mentions of financial privacy, they now seem a bit... idealistic? extreme?...
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Moneyness
Someone is wrong on the internet about the SWIFT network There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments...
6 months ago
18

Someone is wrong on the internet about the SWIFT network

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments traffic on SWIFT, a key global financial messaging network. Below is a version from the Economist, but I've seen other versions too. Source: The Economist When banks make...
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balajis.com
The Mirrortable Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
over a year ago
31

The Mirrortable

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
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Commoncog
Speedrunning the Skill of Demand How to get better, faster at the skill of uncovering demand, which underpins the skill domains of...
4 months ago
33

Speedrunning the Skill of Demand

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
How to get better, faster at the skill of uncovering demand, which underpins the skill domains of sales, marketing, and product.
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates...
6 months ago
39

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). mortgage purchase applications index. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 223...
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade...
5 months ago
31

Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade deficit​. ----- Monday, February 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. 10:00 AM:...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
7 months ago
41

Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. ... Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal...
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Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
3 months ago
25

AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail,...
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The Rational Walk
The Cost of Corporate Security The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that...
7 months ago
86

The Cost of Corporate Security

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that justifies higher corporate spending to protect executives.
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Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
6 months ago
72

The 2024 Commoncog Recap

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 months ago
28

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 4,...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #212 Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
10 months ago
99

The Digest #212

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
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The Rational Walk
The Odyssey Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
a year ago
145

The Odyssey

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
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The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
7 months ago
43

That Top-of-Cycle Feeling

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads Obviously a major...
3 months ago
19

Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads Obviously a major catalyst for the surge in MBS yields was the sharp increase in intermediate- and long-term Treasury rates. Putting additional upward pressure on MBS yields was the surge in...
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The Rational Walk
Musical Chairs at Dollar General Investors were euphoric when Dollar General brought back its former CEO less than a year after his...
a year ago
51

Musical Chairs at Dollar General

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Investors were euphoric when Dollar General brought back its former CEO less than a year after his retirement. A sober look at the situation reveals significant concerns.
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Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024 At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
6 months ago
46

Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
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Calculated Risk
Benchmarking the U.S. economy Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! Benchmarking the U.S. economy that...
5 months ago
40

Benchmarking the U.S. economy

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! Benchmarking the U.S. economy that President Donald Trump is set to inherit • While the U.S. economy still has challenges, especially lingering inflation and poor consumer sentiment, many important economic metrics...
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Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.3% YoY in February Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
3 months ago
23

PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.3% YoY in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
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Seeking Wisdom
What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University....
over a year ago
35

What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University. Being his student since 2011, I realized my dream by sitting in his class for 3.5 days. Prof. Bakshi taught us around 20 different models from Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human...
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The Diff
The Loneliness Economy Wins Through Higher Sustained Productivity Growth Plus! Bond Vigilantes; Deeper AI Search; Analysts; Shareholder Votes; Networks are Expensive to...
6 months ago
50

The Loneliness Economy Wins Through Higher Sustained Productivity Growth

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Plus! Bond Vigilantes; Deeper AI Search; Analysts; Shareholder Votes; Networks are Expensive to Build
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Equity Nation, Hansa, Commodities, DOGE, LLMS, Recessions, AI, Rhodes, The GFC
4 months ago
22

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Equity Nation, Hansa, Commodities, DOGE, LLMS, Recessions, AI, Rhodes, The GFC
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Mazdak
Waymo in Japan, Veo 2 AI video, Snapchat Monetization ... Google DeepMind has upped the game in AI video generation.
7 months ago
67

Waymo in Japan, Veo 2 AI video, Snapchat Monetization ...

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Google DeepMind has upped the game in AI video generation.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #225 A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role...
8 months ago
60

The Digest #225

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role in Trump's Victory, Taxes in Retirement, James J. Hill, IKEA, F. A. Hayek, Shakespeare
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #181 Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò...
a year ago
57

The Digest #181

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò Machiavelli, internal vs. external goals, Safe withdrawal rates, Protecting your time
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Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in February The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
4 months ago
21

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down from 3.6% YoY in January), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (unchanged from 3.1%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative...
2 months ago
13

The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative control" can't obscure the facts or the banquet of consequences that these realities have set. Not everyone in America gained ground as a result of the rampant...
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Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2020; Year in Review I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales...
over a year ago
17

Being an Amazon Seller in 2020; Year in Review

from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales in 2020, mostly through e-commerce channels like Amazon and Walmart.com. This article is going to tell you what that was like and how things were different in 2020 than in 2019. To...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to...
3 months ago
26

Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to Jan and Feb core control retail sales. [Apr 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)....
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on...
6 months ago
20

Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on publicly traded companies and sharing what I find with anyone who is interested. It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #169 Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the...
a year ago
41

The Digest #169

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the human brain, Interviews of Nassim Taleb, Jensen Huang, John and Patrick Collison, and more ...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 months ago
19

Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in retail sales.  Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for...
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Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
6 months ago
218

January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’ It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
over a year ago
128

Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
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Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed...
4 months ago
23

A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of...
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Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
over a year ago
89

Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or not?
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The Rational Walk
Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable...
8 months ago
65

Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable majority in the electoral college but a likely majority in the national popular vote as well.
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Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 122,000 in December From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December “The...
6 months ago
34

ADP: Private Employment Increased 122,000 in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December “The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains. Health care stood out in the second half of the year,...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the...
6 months ago
40

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 225,500. emphasis added The...
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Citation Needed
It matters. I care. Giving up on the idea that truth matters is not just cynicism, it’s surrender.
a month ago
17

It matters. I care.

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Giving up on the idea that truth matters is not just cynicism, it’s surrender.
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 215,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 months ago
22

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 215,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 months ago
17

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 2, 2025. The...
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Mazdak
Loonie on the Brink: Can Canada Escape US Monetary Policy? The Canadian and American economies are deeply intertwined.
8 months ago
40

Loonie on the Brink: Can Canada Escape US Monetary Policy?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
The Canadian and American economies are deeply intertwined.
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Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
3 months ago
22

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
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The Diff
What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up? Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
7 months ago
65

What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
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Commoncog
The Study of Asian Tycoons What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control...
5 months ago
42

The Study of Asian Tycoons

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control them?
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Musings on Markets
The Sugar Daddy Effect? Assessing Corporate venture capital, Sovereign funds and Green Energy! It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would...
8 months ago
17

The Sugar Daddy Effect? Assessing Corporate venture capital, Sovereign funds and Green Energy!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would offend some people, as sexist or worse. I briefly considering expanding the title to  "Sugar Daddies and Molasses Mommies", but that just sounds awkward, or even replacing the words...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #166 The media landscape, Dollar General's meltdown, The written word, Damodaran on Instacart, The human...
a year ago
48

The Digest #166

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The media landscape, Dollar General's meltdown, The written word, Damodaran on Instacart, The human condition, Herb Kelleher, Merger arbitrage, and more.
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
4 months ago
23

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
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Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
66

Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
5 months ago
29

Wednesday: CPI

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up...
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Mazdak
YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025? YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
5 months ago
30

YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
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Calculated Risk
Housing Starts and Recessions This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading...
4 months ago
29

Housing Starts and Recessions

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: “On a 12-month average basis, .. Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak .. Housing is the basis of one of my...
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FIRE v London
July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye...
a year ago
74

July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye scoff, isn’t that much – London is a fairly dry city – drier than Rome and much drier than Sydney). It has been long trousers weather, for the first time in several years. But at...
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final...
2 months ago
27

Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.
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FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
114

Dec ’23 – 2023 in review

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
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Calculated Risk
LA Ports: February Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
3 months ago
22

LA Ports: February Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
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The Diff
How Many Layers in the AI Stack? Plus! Scale; Outsourcing Capital; Closed-Loop Generative AI; The Perks of Market Power; Labor...
5 months ago
28

How Many Layers in the AI Stack?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Plus! Scale; Outsourcing Capital; Closed-Loop Generative AI; The Perks of Market Power; Labor Markets
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Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
3 months ago
17

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,324,000. This is 11.4 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,494,000, but is 1.9 percent above the March 2024 rate of 1,299,000. Single-family housing starts...
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Mazdak
Apple Intelligence: Catching Up or Falling Behind? Apple just launched its new AI features with much fanfare, but are they truly intelligent or just a...
8 months ago
59

Apple Intelligence: Catching Up or Falling Behind?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Apple just launched its new AI features with much fanfare, but are they truly intelligent or just a bunch of glowing gradients and sparkle icons?
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Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011” Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth...
5 months ago
35

ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011” Brief excerpt: Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the...
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FIRE v London
Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the...
9 months ago
81

Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the Solent. I made it to the Labour party conference in Liverpool, which was fascinating albeit wet. I am apparently firmly in the tax-raising sights of the Government, but I wasn’t the...
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Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Decreased 0.1% in March; Core CPI increased 0.1% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a...
3 months ago
16

BLS: CPI Decreased 0.1% in March; Core CPI increased 0.1%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased...
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Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
a year ago
152

What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
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Commoncog
Power and Asian Business The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
7 months ago
89

Power and Asian Business

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
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Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
4 months ago
23

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9...
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Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ending our dependence on SWIFT It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a...
2 months ago
16

Trump-proofing Canada means ending our dependence on SWIFT

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a choice morsel by a much larger predator: our former ally the United States of America. In President Trump's very own words, he wants to use "economic force" to join Canada and the...
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Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January...
4 months ago
24

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
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Mazdak
AI Fuels Alphabet's Growth Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
8 months ago
71

AI Fuels Alphabet's Growth

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
4 months ago
25

Friday: Existing Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
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Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month...
5 months ago
33

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.8% Annual Gain in November 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Lots of Solutions, But for Which Problems? If the "solutions" being offered are features of self-liquidating systems, they aren't solutions,...
5 months ago
20

Lots of Solutions, But for Which Problems?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
If the "solutions" being offered are features of self-liquidating systems, they aren't solutions, they're problems. Problems, problems, problems. No worries, we have solutions. Solutions abound, but the question is: are they actually resolving the core problems, or are...
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Citation Needed
Issue 75 – Absolutely preposterous Trump horrifies even some of his crypto-steeped fans by launching a memecoin before his...
5 months ago
44

Issue 75 – Absolutely preposterous

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Trump horrifies even some of his crypto-steeped fans by launching a memecoin before his inauguration, and a flurry of activity from the new administration signals what’s in store for the crypto world in the next four years.
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The Diff
eToro: Twitch Plays the Market Plus! OpenAI; Open AI; Supply Chains and Self-Tariffing; Surface Area; Secrets
3 months ago
23

eToro: Twitch Plays the Market

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Plus! OpenAI; Open AI; Supply Chains and Self-Tariffing; Surface Area; Secrets
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FIRE v London
Compounding, type II Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of...
8 months ago
96

Compounding, type II

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of compound annual growth rates is something I feel quite viscerally, the more so with each month that I track my portfolio. But I’ve been struck recently by a radical improvement in...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
7 months ago
43

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
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Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in November Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
6 months ago
36

LA Ports: Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in November

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
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The Diff
Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First? Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
7 months ago
34

Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
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Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
a year ago
92

Issue 47 – Residual garbage

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
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Calculated Risk
Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
4 months ago
24

Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.9% from the seasonal bottom eight weeks ago in January and should start increasing significantly in the Spring. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
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Citation Needed
No, Trump didn’t make $50 billion from his memecoin Journalists’ flawed math and ignorance of crypto markets turn tokens into fake fortunes
5 months ago
46

No, Trump didn’t make $50 billion from his memecoin

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Journalists’ flawed math and ignorance of crypto markets turn tokens into fake fortunes
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balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
2 months ago
34

The Network School Fellowship

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
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Molson Hart's Blog -...
Investment Advice Which Stands the Test of Time There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud). It advises that you...
a year ago
20

Investment Advice Which Stands the Test of Time

from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud). It advises that you keep 1/3rd of your wealth in business, 1/3rd in land, and 1/3rd in gold. It's genius. Why? First, it's simple. Second, business, and, to a lesser extent, land, (but not gold, usually)...
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Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
a year ago
113

"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
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oftwominds-Charles...
Last Gasp of the Landfill Economy It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate...
3 months ago
24

Last Gasp of the Landfill Economy

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate its demise. Globalization's great gift wasn't low prices--it was the collapse of durability, transforming the global economy into a Landfill Economy of shoddy products made...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Data, Invisible Software, The Post, AI, Cheating, Control, Star Wars
2 months ago
25

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
Data, Invisible Software, The Post, AI, Cheating, Control, Star Wars
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Moneyness
Canadian banks as U.S. hostages? BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to...
3 months ago
39

Canadian banks as U.S. hostages?

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to use "economic force" against Canada. In my previous post, I worried that one way this force could be wielded was through Canada's dangerous dependence on U.S.-controlled...
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
2 months ago
16

FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher...
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The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
a year ago
130

Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
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FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
10 months ago
102

August ’24: From triumph to tragedy

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
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Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
11 months ago
98

The Dangers of Expansion

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
4 months ago
25

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 14, 2025....
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Mazdak
OpenAI Ventures into Robotics, Grok App Launch, Trump Convicted, and US Jobs Report Highlights Big robotics news from OpenAI 🤖
6 months ago
47

OpenAI Ventures into Robotics, Grok App Launch, Trump Convicted, and US Jobs Report Highlights

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Big robotics news from OpenAI 🤖
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Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is...
4 months ago
29

Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. Light vehicle sales for...
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Calculated Risk
Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP...
7 months ago
38

Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "third" estimate...
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Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
a year ago
71

Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...
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Calculated Risk
December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on...
6 months ago
45

December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a...
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Molson Hart's Blog -...
The Fiacracy; A Mental Model for Modern Government This article will explain the following: 1. What is a Fiacracy 2. How do Fiacracies NOT work 3. How...
11 months ago
25

The Fiacracy; A Mental Model for Modern Government

from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
This article will explain the following: 1. What is a Fiacracy 2. How do Fiacracies NOT work 3. How Fiacracies work 4. Are Fiacracies sustainable 5. Why Fiacracies matter 1. What is a fiacracy? It’s government by fiat (money). The driving mechanism by which it works is not...
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FIRE v London
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
6 months ago
75

Dec ’24 – 2024 in review

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #204 Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
a year ago
106

The Digest #204

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
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Calculated Risk
December Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is...
6 months ago
43

December Employment Preview

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs: We expect a below-consensus 125k increase in payrolls (vs. +160k consensus) in...
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Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
4 months ago
32

Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
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Calculated Risk
Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. I'll follow up with some thoughts on each...
6 months ago
43

Ten Economic Questions for 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions. We can assume the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will be extended.  That larger tariffs will be imposed on some imports, and there will be some...
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Mazdak
The Shadow Bankers Rise: Private Credit Fuels M&A in a Turbulent Market While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of...
a year ago
49

The Shadow Bankers Rise: Private Credit Fuels M&A in a Turbulent Market

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of deal-making in this uncertain market: private credit. Stepping in where traditional bank financing hesitates, private credit has carved a niche with its nimble agility and diverse tools.
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FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
over a year ago
100

Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
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Mazdak
5 Sneaky Financial Traps Sabotaging Your Middle-Class Dream (and How to Escape Them) In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth...
a year ago
45

5 Sneaky Financial Traps Sabotaging Your Middle-Class Dream (and How to Escape Them)

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth amidst rising costs and shifting landscapes requires careful navigation, avoiding insidious traps that can derail your financial goals. This newsletter identifies
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Movies, Scams, Decentralization, Reading, AI, Offline, Trade
2 months ago
14

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
Movies, Scams, Decentralization, Reading, AI, Offline, Trade
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the...
4 months ago
28

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,000, an increase of 8,500 from the...
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Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income...
4 months ago
29

Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income...
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Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
a year ago
121

Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
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The Diff
Who Else But Google? Plus! Tariff Plays; Good Trades; Capital Structure; Moderation; Debt and the Dollar
2 months ago
18

Who Else But Google?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
Plus! Tariff Plays; Good Trades; Capital Structure; Moderation; Debt and the Dollar
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Jobs, Nobels, AI, Magazines, Worms, Complements
3 months ago
33

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Jobs, Nobels, AI, Magazines, Worms, Complements
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Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
6 months ago
40

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 5.9% in March Existing-home sales descended in March,...
2 months ago
30

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 5.9% in March Existing-home sales descended in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slid in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over-year, sales dropped in the Midwest and South, increased in the West and were...
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Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
5 months ago
33

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
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The Diff
Are VCs Incentivized to be too Nice for Venture Debt? Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
7 months ago
40

Are VCs Incentivized to be too Nice for Venture Debt?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
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Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief...
7 months ago
34

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
4 months ago
22

Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February,...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
3 months ago
22

Friday: Personal Income & Outlays

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
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Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a...
5 months ago
31

CPI Preview

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. We expect a 0.34% increase in January...
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The Diff
Finance as a Scale-Invariant Global Computer Plus! The Market; Supply and Demand; The March Continues; ETFs; Intellectual Property
3 months ago
26

Finance as a Scale-Invariant Global Computer

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Plus! The Market; Supply and Demand; The March Continues; ETFs; Intellectual Property
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Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
6 months ago
36

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
6 months ago
37

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 3, 2025....
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Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in March From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI),...
3 months ago
29

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, receded 6.9% in March to 205.6 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 220.9. Over the month, commercial planning declined 7.8%...
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The Diff
AI Assistants Will Be Great (Especially for the Biggest Companies) Plus! Short Selling; Crypto Treasury Gresham's Law; The Joy of Higher Rates; Labor Substitution;...
5 months ago
37

AI Assistants Will Be Great (Especially for the Biggest Companies)

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Plus! Short Selling; Crypto Treasury Gresham's Law; The Joy of Higher Rates; Labor Substitution; Pricing Black Swans
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Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
5 months ago
34

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
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Calculated Risk
December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in...
6 months ago
45

December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social...
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Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage...
4 months ago
26

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers’ portfolio...
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Calculated Risk
February 7th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
5 months ago
34

February 7th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
451

How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
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The Rational Walk
Negative Lollapalooza Effects Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons...
a year ago
45

Negative Lollapalooza Effects

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons from Charlie Munger's psychology of human misjudgment to investing.
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Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did." Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
a year ago
15

"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did."

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
4 months ago
24

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
6 months ago
34

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 33.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 10, 2025....
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Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory is now...
7 months ago
62

Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 7.7% below the peak for the year (8 weeks ago). Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
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The Rational Walk
Buffett & Munger Unscripted A new book by Alex Morris distills key insights and wisdom from three decades of Berkshire Hathaway...
4 months ago
39

Buffett & Munger Unscripted

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
A new book by Alex Morris distills key insights and wisdom from three decades of Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #222 Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online...
8 months ago
68

The Digest #222

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online Speech, Price Controls, Shakespeare's Caesar, Musk and SpaceX, Micro-Cap Investing
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Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
a year ago
135

Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
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Citation Needed
Transcript of leaked call with Meteora’s Ben Chow A transcript of a leaked call between DefiTuna’s Moty Povolotski and Meteora’s Ben Chow
4 months ago
40

Transcript of leaked call with Meteora’s Ben Chow

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
A transcript of a leaked call between DefiTuna’s Moty Povolotski and Meteora’s Ben Chow
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Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
98

Reciprocity: Getting What You Give

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
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Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross...
4 months ago
25

Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S....
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: PPI From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
6 months ago
42

Tuesday: PPI

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The more important consideration is the new round of potential volatility on the horizon. Whereas it was the jobs report last week, this week's critical data will be Wednesday's Consumer...
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The Diff
Klarna and the Two Pivots of 2022 Plus! Diff Jobs; Crypto Adoption; Art Margin Calls; Liquidations; Corporate Espionage; DeepSeek
4 months ago
24

Klarna and the Two Pivots of 2022

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Crypto Adoption; Art Margin Calls; Liquidations; Corporate Espionage; DeepSeek
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The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
4 months ago
26

Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market...
5 months ago
29

Tuesday: Job Openings

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market Volatility We know that mortgage rates are driven by financial markets and we know that financial markets have experienced volatility amid the roll-out of new tariffs over the weekend....
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Calculated Risk
April 18th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 months ago
18

April 18th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried "The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
a year ago
109

25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious crime."
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FIRE v London
April 2025 – balmy weather, barmy markets Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything...
a month ago
24

April 2025 – balmy weather, barmy markets

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Better late than never, I’m doing a quick update on April. More for the record than because anything particularly notable happened in the portfolio, ignoring the mid month gyrations. It was a lovely month, April. I did a bit of travelling, but the UK had generally lovely spring...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #216 Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
9 months ago
88

The Digest #216

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
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oftwominds-Charles...
Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of...
3 months ago
36

Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of markets for exports and resource extraction on terms that are only favorable to the Neocolonial power. The title of today's essay pays homage to the inimitable John D....
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Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
over a year ago
89

Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
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Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
a year ago
111

The Long Shadow of Checks

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
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Mazdak
OpenAI Launches Codex: The Future of AI-Powered Software Engineering OpenAI has officially launched Codex, its most advanced AI coding agent to date, within ChatGPT....
2 months ago
35

OpenAI Launches Codex: The Future of AI-Powered Software Engineering

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
OpenAI has officially launched Codex, its most advanced AI coding agent to date, within ChatGPT. Designed for developers, teams, and enterprises, Codex represents a major step forward in agentic AI systems purpose-built for software engineering.
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Commoncog
Building a Valuable Business? It's How You Spend It That Matters The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business...
a year ago
68

Building a Valuable Business? It's How You Spend It That Matters

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business performance.
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The Diff
How High Does AI's Revenue Per User Get? Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't...
7 months ago
44

How High Does AI's Revenue Per User Get?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't Scale Yet; Complete Markets; Legitimacy and Growth
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Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
5 months ago
29

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale! I’m watching...
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Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
5 months ago
30

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (down from 3.7% YoY in December), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
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The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The...
6 months ago
68

What I’ve Been Reading

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The Stoic Emperor, The Intelligent Investor, The Trail, and more.
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Molson Hart's Blog -...
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries...
3 months ago
78

America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back

from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”. These tariffs will not work. In fact, they...
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Mazdak
CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦 Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension...
8 months ago
35

CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS).
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly...
6 months ago
33

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week...
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Mazdak
TFSA Talk: Unlocking Tax-Free Wealth 🇨🇦 Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
8 months ago
62

TFSA Talk: Unlocking Tax-Free Wealth 🇨🇦

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
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Calculated Risk
President Washington's Farewell Address I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief...
4 months ago
23

President Washington's Farewell Address

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief excerpt: To the efficacy and permanency of your Union, a Government for the whole is indispensable. No alliances, however strict, between the parts can be an adequate substitute; they...
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. ----- Monday, May 5th...
2 months ago
12

Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. ----- Monday, May 5th ----- 10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. ----- Tuesday, May 6th ----- 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the...
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Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦 The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
a year ago
44

2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
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Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out? Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
a year ago
112

Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
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The Diff
Uber's AV Bet on a Narrow Range of Competitors' ROI Outcomes Plus! The Grid, and Cross-Subsidies; Pricing AI; Owning the Login; Liquidity Premium; Supply Chains
5 months ago
33

Uber's AV Bet on a Narrow Range of Competitors' ROI Outcomes

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Plus! The Grid, and Cross-Subsidies; Pricing AI; Owning the Login; Liquidity Premium; Supply Chains
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Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 45 States in February (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in...
3 months ago
20

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 45 States in February (3-Month Basis)

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in six states, and...
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oftwominds-Charles...
It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that...
2 months ago
40

It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that I've maintained them. It was 20 years ago today--well, actually, yesterday--that I launched this blog into the swirling rapids of the Web. As we know, time flies when you're...
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Calculated Risk
April Vehicle Forecast: Sales at 17.4 million SAAR, Up 8.6% YoY From WardsAuto: Pre-Tariff U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge Continues in April, Sapping Dealer...
2 months ago
28

April Vehicle Forecast: Sales at 17.4 million SAAR, Up 8.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
From WardsAuto: Pre-Tariff U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge Continues in April, Sapping Dealer Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt: If the forecast holds firm, inventory will fall below the year-ago month for the first time in nearly three years. Less inventory could take...
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Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL...
5 months ago
33

Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August...
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Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge...
3 months ago
24

A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change...
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Calculated Risk
Monday Night Futures Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair...
5 months ago
40

Monday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair value).
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Statement Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
4 months ago
21

Wednesday: FOMC Statement

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Architecture Billings Index for February (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this...
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Bits about Money
The business of check cashing Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
a year ago
129

The business of check cashing

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
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Citation Needed
Issue 70 – The Cryptocurrency States of America Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
8 months ago
68

Issue 70 – The Cryptocurrency States of America

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
6 months ago
60

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
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Mazdak
Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ... Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
6 months ago
71

Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ...

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
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Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
7 months ago
21

After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
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Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
6 months ago
37

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
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Moneyness
Ending the penny won't lead to more nickels Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable,...
4 months ago
52

Ending the penny won't lead to more nickels

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable, costing 3.69 cents to produce each one. In response, the lobbyists that earn big profits from the ongoing existence of the penny have come out in full force with dubious arguments for...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
3 months ago
22

Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for...
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Mazdak
The Future of TikTok in the U.S.: What Happens on January 19? The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
6 months ago
42

The Future of TikTok in the U.S.: What Happens on January 19?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
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Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
a year ago
155

Modeling Life: Oscillation

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
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Mazdak
Google Pays $700 Million to Settle App Store Antitrust Concerns Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling...
a year ago
51

Google Pays $700 Million to Settle App Store Antitrust Concerns

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling a major antitrust lawsuit brought by a coalition of states. This landmark deal marks a significant victory for developers and consumers alike, potentially paving the way for a more...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 months ago
22

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 219 thousand last week. Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
4 months ago
21

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 7,...
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Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
a year ago
94

Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
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Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to...
7 months ago
45

Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to 3.0% q/q saar. Additionally, our 4Q US GDP tracker was unchanged at 2.1% q/q saar. [Dec 13th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final...
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Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway? Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
a year ago
75

What’s an Operational Definition Anyway?

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Durable Goods Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 months ago
43

Wednesday: Durable Goods

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.
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Musings on Markets
Beat your Bot: Building your moat against AI It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest...
10 months ago
17

Beat your Bot: Building your moat against AI

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest mover, but Open AI introduced the world to ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. While ChatGPT itself represented a low-tech variation of AI, it opened the door to AI not only as a business...
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 2 Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto...
a year ago
39

Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 2

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto insurance business as well as nearly bankrupting GEICO.
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Farnam Street
Why Write Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
over a year ago
105

Why Write

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The...
4 months ago
29

Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of -1.0, up from -12.6. NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 47, unchanged from 47 the previous month. Any number below 50...
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Calculated Risk
April 4th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
21

April 4th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Citation Needed
AI isn't useless. But is it worth it? AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
a year ago
116

AI isn't useless. But is it worth it?

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
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The Rational Walk
Primary Sources Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible...
5 months ago
42

Primary Sources

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible citizens.
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Calculated Risk
PCE Inflation expected to be Soft in March The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. ...
3 months ago
141

PCE Inflation expected to be Soft in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. The data released so far suggests the PCE inflation will be soft in March. The producer price index (PPI), the PPI excluding food and energy, and the PPI excluding food, energy, and...
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Bits about Money
BAM is now reader-supported Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial...
over a year ago
35

BAM is now reader-supported

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial infrastructure.)
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FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
over a year ago
97

Mayday for IBKR margin lending

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2025 Proxy Statement Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development...
4 months ago
31

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2025 Proxy Statement

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Berkshire has introduced a retirement age of eighty for most directors, a surprising development given Warren Buffett's prior statements.
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Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in February On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and...
4 months ago
18

Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.1 percent from February 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
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Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
6 months ago
53

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #180 Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
a year ago
112

The Digest #180

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
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Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
over a year ago
159

Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
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Mazdak
Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
8 months ago
36

Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
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Moneyness
It's time to trash the "store of value" function of money When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that...
7 months ago
16

It's time to trash the "store of value" function of money

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that money has three functions: medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Maybe it’s time for educators to throw out this triumvirate. It’s not very accurate.  We need a...
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Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 10% YoY in December This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
6 months ago
47

Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 10% YoY in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
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oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On? Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
4 months ago
31

If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
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Musings on Markets
Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy! I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and...
3 months ago
32

Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and as is my practice, I was checking the score on the Yankee game, when I read the tariff news announcement. Coming after a few days where the market seemed to have found its...
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Mazdak
How to Build Wealth: 5 Key Principles Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is...
over a year ago
33

How to Build Wealth: 5 Key Principles

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is possible for anyone who is willing to put in the work. Here are 5 key principles to help you build wealth: Live below your means. This is the single most important thing you can do to...
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Mazdak
Netflix Discontinues Basic Plan in Canada Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it...
over a year ago
32

Netflix Discontinues Basic Plan in Canada

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it plans to discontinue the plan altogether, but it is no longer available to new or rejoining members. The Basic plan was the most affordable option for Netflix subscribers in Canada,...
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Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
3 months ago
23

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-April provides a snapshot of the current housing market. Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook. Since then,...
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FIRE v London
Buy to let: RIP Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years. A bit of...
4 months ago
43

Buy to let: RIP

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years. A bit of history I ended up with my Modern Flat in that common way that many ‘accidental’ landlords have. It was my first rung on the property ownership ladder. Until it was time to…...
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balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not? Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
34

Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
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Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
4 months ago
21

ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
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Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market? In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
a year ago
137

Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
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Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me? The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
a year ago
149

Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me?

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
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Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability...
4 months ago
26

Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability Headwind, U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 3.4% in February (pay site). Continuing January’s trend, market strength was at the two far ends of the affordability scale, as entry-price cars...
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Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in December; Core CPI increased 0.2% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a...
6 months ago
30

BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in December; Core CPI increased 0.2%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
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Calculated Risk
AIA: "Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
3 months ago
23

AIA: "Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI February 2025: Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.5 for the month,...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, New Home Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
3 months ago
25

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, New Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The average mortgage lender raised rates modestly on Monday morning--a logical move considering the weakness in the bond market over the weekend. Rates are based directly on bonds. Bond...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
6 months ago
45

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
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Mazdak
Apple’s Next Big Bet? The Future of Robotics and the Smart Home For decades, Apple has been known for revolutionizing industries.
5 months ago
33

Apple’s Next Big Bet? The Future of Robotics and the Smart Home

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
For decades, Apple has been known for revolutionizing industries.
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balajis.com
The Network State Book A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
27

The Network State Book

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
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Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
a year ago
121

Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through the House.
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Commoncog
What Process Improvement in Education Looks Like What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
9 months ago
69

What Process Improvement in Education Looks Like

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should be able to do this in your own org contexts.
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The Diff
Information Economies and Institution Economies Plus! Distribution; Non-Tariff Barriers; Low-Background Text; Application Layer; Socks
3 months ago
28

Information Economies and Institution Economies

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Plus! Distribution; Non-Tariff Barriers; Low-Background Text; Application Layer; Socks
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Bits about Money
Markets in power How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
over a year ago
33

Markets in power

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
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The Diff
PE: Cycles and One-Off Events Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
4 months ago
27

PE: Cycles and One-Off Events

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
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The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2025, including The Snowball, The...
6 days ago
14

What I’ve Been Reading

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2025, including The Snowball, The Haywire Heart, Plato's Republic, and the King James Bible
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Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
7 months ago
51

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million...
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Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
a year ago
107

Video: The charges against Binance

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
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Calculated Risk
Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024 From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades...
6 months ago
49

Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. As the nation’s...
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Calculated Risk
February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay...
4 months ago
24

February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Sales are recording solid gains, but production slowdowns capping dealer stock in a growth market – a market that ostensibly still is climbing out of the...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #177 Remembering Charlie Munger
a year ago
110

The Digest #177

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Remembering Charlie Munger
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Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
a year ago
77

Issue 45 – I'm the director now

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
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Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
92

Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
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Mazdak
Apple & Google Face Mounting Threats to $500 Billion Market The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is...
a year ago
70

Apple & Google Face Mounting Threats to $500 Billion Market

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is facing a growing number of threats. A recent court ruling against Google and new regulations in Europe and Asia could force the two tech giants to open up their app stores to more...
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The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
7 months ago
38

Just Another Risk Asset

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
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Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Increased 5% YoY in January This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
5 months ago
32

Heavy Truck Sales Increased 5% YoY in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the January 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 534 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
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balajis.com
What are the Key Properties of Bitcoin? There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are...
6 months ago
11

What are the Key Properties of Bitcoin?

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are philosophical, some are technical, and some are a blend.
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
5 months ago
45

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
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Molson Hart's Blog -...
Victim of Your Own Success Syndrome Midland, Texas. More oil gets drilled here than anywhere else in the USA. And it’s lucrative....
a year ago
13

Victim of Your Own Success Syndrome

from Molson Hart's Blog - Molson Hart [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Midland, Texas. More oil gets drilled here than anywhere else in the USA. And it’s lucrative. There’s a lot of money to be made. We’re talking about $100,000+ for risky jobs that don’t require a college degree. Okay, but what happens if you have a non-oil business when oil gets...
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Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis? Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
7 months ago
59

AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15...
6 months ago
37

Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate). Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted...
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The Rational Walk
Superinvestor Portfolio Changes — Q3 2023 A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General,...
a year ago
53

Superinvestor Portfolio Changes — Q3 2023

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General, Markel, and Semper Augustus.
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Mazdak
Can Zuckerberg Challenge Google's Search Empire? Mark Zuckerberg is making a bold move to challenge Google's long-standing dominance in the search...
8 months ago
65

Can Zuckerberg Challenge Google's Search Empire?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Mark Zuckerberg is making a bold move to challenge Google's long-standing dominance in the search engine market.
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Mazdak
OpenAI Launches Operator: The AI Agent That Works Autonomously (Why this could be the start of a new era for AI tools)
5 months ago
38

OpenAI Launches Operator: The AI Agent That Works Autonomously

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
(Why this could be the start of a new era for AI tools)
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Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
6 months ago
42

New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024 Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025. ----- Monday, December 30th ----- 9:45 AM:...
6 months ago
40

Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025. ----- Monday, December 30th ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity...
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Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
7 months ago
54

DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
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balajis.com
Bond Villain When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
over a year ago
32

Bond Villain

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
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Mazdak
Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
8 months ago
50

Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
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Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors! In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
8 months ago
18

The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December,...
5 months ago
94

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and slipped in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales accelerated in all four...
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Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
5 months ago
34

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
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Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
a year ago
126

Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
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Mazdak
LinkedIn Faces Lawsuit Over Alleged Data Use for AI Training In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn,...
5 months ago
52

LinkedIn Faces Lawsuit Over Alleged Data Use for AI Training

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn, Microsoft’s business-focused social media platform, is at the center of the latest debate.
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Mazdak
Trump's Antitrust Agenda: Big Tech in the Balance Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
8 months ago
55

Trump's Antitrust Agenda: Big Tech in the Balance

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 months ago
26

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 21,...
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Citation Needed
I am my own legal department: the promise and peril of “just go independent” Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it...
8 months ago
67

I am my own legal department: the promise and peril of “just go independent”

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it is not the path for everyone.
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The Diff
Initiations Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
7 months ago
42

Initiations

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
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The Rational Walk
The Power of Investment Journals Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles...
a year ago
37

The Power of Investment Journals

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles explores lessons I learned dating back to 2009.
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.2% in November; Up 6.9% Year-over-year From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of...
6 months ago
34

NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.2% in November; Up 6.9% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of Increases Pending home sales gained 2.2% in November – the fourth consecutive month of increases and the highest level since February 2023 – according to the National Association of REALTORS®....
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 51.6% in April (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.6%, up from 50.8% last month. The...
2 months ago
12

ISM® Services Index Increased to 51.6% in April

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.6%, up from 50.8% last month. The employment index increased to 49.0%, from 46.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 51.6% April 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
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Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
over a year ago
31

Deposit insurance maximization as a service

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
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The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
a year ago
95

The River of Doubt

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
7 months ago
50

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With...
4 months ago
25

FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although progress could remain...
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Citation Needed
Issue 86 – State power sponsored by Coinbase The GENIUS Act passes the Senate after explicit threats to Democrats from the crypto lobby, and...
3 weeks ago
18

Issue 86 – State power sponsored by Coinbase

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The GENIUS Act passes the Senate after explicit threats to Democrats from the crypto lobby, and shady crypto billionaire Justin Sun cozies up even closer to the Trump family
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FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
103

Sep 23: Antisocial markets

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
6 months ago
51

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
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