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Calculated Risk
February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
How to Build Wealth: 5 Key Principles Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is...
a year ago
29
a year ago
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is possible for anyone who is willing to put in the work. Here are 5 key principles to help you build wealth: Live below your means. This is the single most important thing you can do to...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 February. ... 2-8 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 55.9%...
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
60
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell...
a month ago
15
a month ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday. ----- Monday, March 31st ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in...
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in February From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively....
Moneyness
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
3 months ago
14
3 months ago
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
53
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
86
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
8 months ago
88
8 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
4 months ago
25
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
Calculated Risk
Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP...
4 months ago
32
4 months ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "third" estimate...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #203 American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value...
11 months ago
77
11 months ago
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value Investor's Club, Nietzsche's world view, Are wrist watches effeminate?, Seinfeld on writing
Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
5 months ago
48
5 months ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 2 Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto...
a year ago
32
a year ago
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto insurance business as well as nearly bankrupting GEICO.
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income? Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
a year ago
99
a year ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
a year ago
109
a year ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
4 months ago
26
4 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Welcome to the January 2025 Apartment List National Rent Report. The national median monthly rent closed out 2024 at $1,373 in December, after...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #155 Early Retirement, Chris Davis on Berkshire's future, Howard Marks on market cycles, Threads vs....
a year ago
31
a year ago
Early Retirement, Chris Davis on Berkshire's future, Howard Marks on market cycles, Threads vs. Twitter, Costco takes the high road, James Cameron, GEICO in the 1970s
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Margin Call, Math, BNPL, AI and the Environment, Bonds, Favors, Tariffs, College
a week ago
Mazdak
Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.3% in November; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased...
4 months ago
41
4 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal...
Mazdak
Tesla's Robotaxi: A Gamble? Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on...
6 months ago
44
6 months ago
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10th.
Mazdak
Google Pays $700 Million to Settle App Store Antitrust Concerns Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling...
a year ago
45
a year ago
Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling a major antitrust lawsuit brought by a coalition of states. This landmark deal marks a significant victory for developers and consumers alike, potentially paving the way for a more...
Mazdak
AI Fuels Alphabet's Growth Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 90,000 in January The BLS reported 143 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
The BLS reported 143 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 573 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. ...
Citation Needed
“Wait, not like that”: Free and open access in the age of generative AI The real threat isn’t AI using open knowledge — it’s AI companies killing the projects that make...
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
The Diff
Central Banks and the Guidance Paradox Plus! Crowded Trades; CoreWeave; The Bots; Accounting; Political Meme Stocks
a month ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
4 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Thirty Second Mind Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Musical Chairs at Dollar General Investors were euphoric when Dollar General brought back its former CEO less than a year after his...
a year ago
45
a year ago
Investors were euphoric when Dollar General brought back its former CEO less than a year after his retirement. A sober look at the situation reveals significant concerns.
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
a year ago
112
a year ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
Musings on Markets
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers...
a year ago
9
a year ago
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers on companies that I should value next. While I don't have the time or the bandwidth to value all of the suggested companies, a reader from Iceland, a couple of weeks ago, made a...
Calculated Risk
Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
4 months ago
31
4 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
The Diff
AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk Management; Diff Jobs
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
over a year ago
148
over a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
The Diff
Does VIX Have Fundamentals? Plus! Customer Service; Latency; Corp Dev.; Scavengers; Broken Windows
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to...
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
11 months ago
115
11 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus,...
10 months ago
80
10 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus, Herodotus, the Odyssey, and American Scripture.
Mazdak
Apple & Google Face Mounting Threats to $500 Billion Market The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is...
a year ago
64
a year ago
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is facing a growing number of threats. A recent court ruling against Google and new regulations in Europe and Asia could force the two tech giants to open up their app stores to more...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Investment Advice Which Stands the Test of Time There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud). It advises that you...
a year ago
14
a year ago
There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud). It advises that you keep 1/3rd of your wealth in business, 1/3rd in land, and 1/3rd in gold. It's genius. Why? First, it's simple. Second, business, and, to a lesser extent, land, (but not gold, usually)...
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in November From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending...
4 months ago
39
4 months ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 207,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Mazdak
RRSP vs TFSA: Making the Right Choice for Your Financial Future Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful...
6 months ago
45
6 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful investment vehicles available to Canadians.
Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
a year ago
95
a year ago
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
Bits about Money
Deposit franchises as natural hedges Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest...
over a year ago
24
over a year ago
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest rates. How did we get here?
The Rational Walk
The Limits of the 25th Amendment The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe...
10 months ago
91
10 months ago
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe limits that should be acknowledged.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
a year ago
110
a year ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 48 and DOW futures are down 294 (fair value). WTI futures at $67.04 per barrel and Brent at $70.36 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $84 - so WTI oil prices...
The Rational Walk
Costco’s Director Compensation Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a...
a year ago
72
a year ago
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a potential model for Berkshire Hathaway in the future.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188 Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
a year ago
87
a year ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
Bits about Money
Credit card debt collection Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being...
a year ago
27
a year ago
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being sordid, for complex structural and microeconomic reasons.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate...
2 months ago
265
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about...
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
a month ago
11
a month ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Now I am on recession watch, but still not yet predicting a...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. The "Home...
a month ago
15
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Part 2: Current State of the...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 4th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the...
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors! In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
6 months ago
9
6 months ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
77
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 1 This article presents lessons learned regarding investing in bonds based on Warren Buffett's...
a year ago
30
a year ago
This article presents lessons learned regarding investing in bonds based on Warren Buffett's commentary in his final partnership letters written in 1969 and 1970.
Mazdak
OpenAI in Turmoil: Altman and Brockman Join Microsoft, Employees Revolt In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the...
a year ago
38
a year ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the non-profit research company behind groundbreaking artificial intelligence advancements, are joining Microsoft to lead a new research unit. This move comes after failed talks to reinstate...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative...
a week ago
1
a week ago
Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative control" can't obscure the facts or the banquet of consequences that these realities have set. Not everyone in America gained ground as a result of the rampant...
The Rational Walk
Roth IRA Conversions For Early Retirees Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and...
7 months ago
57
7 months ago
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and avoid falling into a high tax bracket.
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in December 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Citation Needed
Issue 48 – Bitcoin has "no chance" of going to the moon Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
a year ago
Mazdak
Waymo in Japan, Veo 2 AI video, Snapchat Monetization ... Google DeepMind has upped the game in AI video generation.
4 months ago
Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
10 months ago
113
10 months ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
Citation Needed
Issue 82 – E-moluments As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the...
2 weeks ago
3
2 weeks ago
As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the Trump administration continues to dismantle those same rules while he pumps his personal memecoin with promises of private access
The Diff
When and How Will AI Offer People Search? Plus! Consumption Patterns; Training Data; Grift Confluence; Marketing and Piracy; Convergence
2 months ago
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
9 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #222 Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online...
6 months ago
59
6 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online Speech, Price Controls, Shakespeare's Caesar, Musk and SpaceX, Micro-Cap Investing
oftwominds-Charles...
The AI Fad Just Burned to the Waterline Sometimes wide moats and billions of dollars to blow lead not to glory but to hubris, which beckons...
3 months ago
15
3 months ago
Sometimes wide moats and billions of dollars to blow lead not to glory but to hubris, which beckons Nemesis. While everyone was busy reassuring themselves the stock market was still A-OK, the driver of the market--the AI fad--just burned to the waterline. Yes, the current...
Mazdak
YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025? YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen Here is a YouTube video of a discussion with Mike Simonsen. Enjoy.
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns" in February The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42,...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42, down from 47 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost...
Moneyness
Is it better to bribe Trump by purchasing his memecoin or his stock? Noah Smith writes a provocative article about memecoins as a novel mechanism for bribery payments. A...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
Noah Smith writes a provocative article about memecoins as a novel mechanism for bribery payments. A foreign dignitary looking to gain influence over Donald Trump would like to pay him a giant bribe, but doing so directly is prohibited by all sort of laws. Luckily, Trump has just...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. MBA:...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate...
Calculated Risk
Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
4 months ago
36
4 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
4 months ago
39
4 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
The Diff
Finance as a Scale-Invariant Global Computer Plus! The Market; Supply and Demand; The March Continues; ETFs; Intellectual Property
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,366,000. This is 9.8 percent below the revised December estimate of 1,515,000 and is 0.7 percent below the January 2024 rate of 1,376,000. Single-family housing starts in...
Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
85
a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1% From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4%...
4 months ago
32
4 months ago
From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model...
The Rational Walk
The Year in Review Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
a year ago
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
a year ago
104
a year ago
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While As the table shows, Federal Reserve net income was substantially negative in 2023 and 2024, with a combined net loss in these two years of almost $200...
Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a...
2 months ago
13
2 months ago
The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. We forecast a 0.29% increase...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The DECIDE Algorithm — A Simple Step-by-Step Method for Converting Idle Time into Productive Action DECIDE D - Determine the Bottleneck E - Engage with the subject matter C - Clear distractions I -...
a month ago
19
a month ago
DECIDE D - Determine the Bottleneck E - Engage with the subject matter C - Clear distractions I - Implement mental models D - Decide how to proceed E - Execute next steps When you’re traveling or waiting for something to happen, instead of listening to a podcast or scrolling on...
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x" Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 460 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
4 months ago
35
4 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. ... Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal...
Moneyness
Trump claims US banks can't open in Canada—US banks disagree In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained...
3 months ago
19
3 months ago
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained yesterday on social media that CANADA DOESN'T EVEN ALLOW U.S. BANKS TO OPEN OR DO BUSINESS THERE. And so according to Trump, Canada doubly deserves to be disciplined with...
Mazdak
Netflix Discontinues Basic Plan in Canada Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it...
a year ago
27
a year ago
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it plans to discontinue the plan altogether, but it is no longer available to new or rejoining members. The Basic plan was the most affordable option for Netflix subscribers in Canada,...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly...
3 months ago
31
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160 Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
a year ago
34
a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Moody's:...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Update: The...
The Diff
Will White-Collar Workers Experience a Blue-Collar Economic Recovery? Plus! Harvard; AI, Memory, and Moats; Grabbing Share; Concentrating Demand; When the Tide Goes Out
4 weeks ago
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
92
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Moneyness
If it's crypto it's not money laundering It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is...
4 weeks ago
25
4 weeks ago
It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is routed via crypto infrastructure, then it no longer qualifies as money laundering. Earlier this week the Department of Justice's deputy attorney general Todd Blanche sent out an...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Potential Winners and Losers in Reshoring Supply Chains Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock...
a week ago
2
a week ago
Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock and on back order, with no estimate of a future delivery date." The ultimate winners and losers in reshoring supply chains to North America have yet to be determined, and...
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
a year ago
125
a year ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #227 Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
5 months ago
60
5 months ago
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
a week ago
1
a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year Fannie and Freddie: Single Family...
The Diff
What Would a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Actually Do? Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State:...
5 months ago
24
5 months ago
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State: Beauty Filters Edition
Mazdak
Understanding Family Trusts in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide What is a Family Trust?
5 months ago
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
over a year ago
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
a year ago
138
a year ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
a year ago
92
a year ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
Citation Needed
When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue? I don’t believe that it has.
9 months ago
Mazdak
OpenAI's Meltdown: A Fight for the Future of AI The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching...
a year ago
47
a year ago
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching implications for the future of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI, known for its groundbreaking ChatGPT technology, is considered a frontrunner in the AI race, and its fate could...
Mazdak
10 Steps to Transform Your Life As someone who has built and scaled multiple businesses over decades, I've learned that success...
6 months ago
60
6 months ago
As someone who has built and scaled multiple businesses over decades, I've learned that success isn't about sporadic breakthroughs—it's about consistent, intentional changes in how we think and act.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the...
a month ago
12
a month ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 224,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous...
Bits about Money
A very Chicago gamble Chicago and Bally's have teamed up in an investment offering.
3 months ago
The Diff
The Large- and Small-Home Market Advantages Plus! Who Bears Ban Risk?; Carvana and Short-Selling Economics; VC; Productivity; A More Normal...
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
Mazdak
Google and the Canadian Government Reach a Deal on Online News Act The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three...
a year ago
76
a year ago
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three weeks before the act is scheduled to come into effect. The deal will see Google continue to show Canadian news on its platforms in exchange for annual payments to Canadian news...
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024 The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #213 Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
8 months ago
83
8 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
Commoncog
High Roller: Lessons from America's Richest Banker Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's...
a year ago
48
a year ago
Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's richest banker. A guest post by Frederik Gieschen.
Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 47 States in January (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 92. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 35 states, decreased in nine states, and...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 2.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Unchanged YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Closing out the...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Closing out the year with Dec visitation of 3.4M visitors (+0.2% YoY), Las Vegas hosted approx. 41.7M visitors for the year, up 2.1% from last year’s 40.8M visitors. emphasis added Click on graph...
The Diff
Do Chatbots Cannibalize Search? Or is it the Other Way Around? Plus! Crypto; Cheating; Crypto, Redux; Guidance; Ghost Apps
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market Volatility We know that mortgage rates are driven by financial markets and we know that financial markets have experienced volatility amid the roll-out of new tariffs over the weekend....
Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #212 Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
8 months ago
89
8 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
a year ago
75
a year ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201 Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
11 months ago
110
11 months ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
a year ago
115
a year ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
oftwominds-Charles...
Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable speculative asset in the global financialization casino. It can't be both. We tend to think of housing becoming unaffordable as a matter of land prices, zoning and the cost of...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2021; Year in Review I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We...
over a year ago
12
over a year ago
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We did $8.8 million in sales in 2021. This article is going to tell you what it was like to run this business in 2021 vs. 2020, amidst threats like the Amazon aggregators, supply chain...
Calculated Risk
March 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
103
a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in...
a month ago
15
a month ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the...
Citation Needed
Issue 74 – Stop asking me questions like “where does the yield come from” Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of...
3 months ago
51
3 months ago
Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of everyday Americans as they suck up to the powerful billionaires who will soon be publicly calling the shots.
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
3 months ago
31
3 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,499,000. This is 15.8 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,294,000, but is 4.4 percent below the December 2023 rate of 1,568,000. Single-family housing starts...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #159 Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning...
a year ago
32
a year ago
Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning books, How Threads was built, BYD challenges Tesla, Katalin Karikó's inspiring life
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
10 months ago
78
10 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
Mazdak
Subscription Overload: The Rise of Recurring Revenue The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches...
a year ago
58
a year ago
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches onto the subscription business model. This is because businesses can make more money up-front and over time by selling subscriptions and building loyalty. They can also mine...
Calculated Risk
The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt...
4 months ago
34
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP A brief excerpt: Two years ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP. Here is an update to a couple of graphs. The bottom line...
Calculated Risk
January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
4 months ago
33
4 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
Mazdak
Who Should You Ask for Feedback? Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new...
a year ago
31
a year ago
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new ideas, and stay ahead of the competition. But not all feedback is created equal. If you want to get the most out of feedback, you need to ask the right people.
Musings on Markets
Return on Equity, Earnings Yield and Market Efficiency: Back to Basics! While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by two events. The first was the response that I received to my last data update, where I looked at the profitability of businesses, and specifically at how a comparison of accounting...
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in January; Up 0.8% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in January Wholesale...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in January Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) moved 0.4% higher in January compared to December, causing the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) to increase...
Mazdak
Google Challenges EU’s New Disinformation Rules In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European...
3 months ago
33
3 months ago
In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European Union it will not incorporate fact-checking into its search results or YouTube rankings, despite the requirements of the EU’s new Disinformation Code of Practice.
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
51
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 months ago
33
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release December Existing Home sales on Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million in...
Calculated Risk
Fed January SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate From the Federal Reserve: The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
From the Federal Reserve: The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses...
Mazdak
News Publishers Sue Perplexity AI for Copyright Infringement Jeff Bezos-Backed AI Faces Legal Scrutiny Over Content Scraping Allegations.
6 months ago
Mazdak
The Future of TikTok in the U.S.: What Happens on January 19? The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #208 Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs...
9 months ago
108
9 months ago
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs in 1983, Microsoft deep dive, Marks on risk, Luca Delanna on ergodicity, Guadalcanal
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway? Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
a year ago
67
a year ago
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
4 months ago
60
4 months ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 6% in January From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI),...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 5.6% in January to 225.7 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 213.6. Over the month, commercial planning increased 4.2% while...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.7% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three...
4 months ago
37
4 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP...
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out? Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
a year ago
102
a year ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
Mazdak
How to Find Great Stocks That Will Make You Money The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know...
a year ago
26
a year ago
The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know how to find great stocks that will make you money. In this blog post, I will share five key factors to look for when finding great stocks. Factor 1: Strong Revenue Growth
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
5 months ago
35
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 months ago
26
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
FIRE v London
My 20 year property returns I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But...
over a year ago
70
over a year ago
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But my net worth includes an important asset class – property – that I don’t normally track, but which I have held in some form for over 20 years. So, this post takes a look at how my…...
Mazdak
The 7 Steps to Becoming a Top Investor Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going...
a year ago
28
a year ago
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going to share with you the seven steps that I believe are essential for becoming a top investor. Step 1: Develop a Clear Investment Philosophy The first step to becoming a great...
Calculated Risk
December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on...
4 months ago
37
4 months ago
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a...
Moneyness
Canadian banks as U.S. hostages? BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to...
a month ago
22
a month ago
BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to use "economic force" against Canada. In my previous post, I worried that one way this force could be wielded was through Canada's dangerous dependence on U.S.-controlled...
Calculated Risk
Initial Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2% Range From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)...
3 months ago
31
3 months ago
From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate at +2.3%. We launched our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate at +2.3%, in line with the advance reading. [Jan 31st estimate] emphasis...
Mazdak
CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦 Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS).
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202 George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
11 months ago
60
11 months ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: "The process [of reaching inflation target] could take longer than previously... From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt: With...
4 months ago
29
4 months ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 122,000 in December From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December “The...
4 months ago
28
4 months ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December “The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains. Health care stood out in the second half of the year,...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s retail sales and industrial production reports, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1...
The Rational Walk
The Use of Letters As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It...
a year ago
28
a year ago
As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It makes no sense to refuse to learn vicariously.
Commoncog
The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart...
a year ago
112
a year ago
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart that doesn't seem to get talked about.
Mazdak
Teens Obsessed with YouTube and TikTok: New Survey Reveals Usage Trends Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew...
a year ago
57
a year ago
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew Research Center. This highlights the immense popularity of these video-streaming platforms among younger generations. Here are the key takeaways from the survey:
Mazdak
Big Tech Ad Boom Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
6 months ago
The Rational Walk
American Prometheus The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a...
a year ago
39
a year ago
The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a cautionary tale of human nature that holds timeless lessons.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #185 Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at...
a year ago
67
a year ago
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at Alibaba's IPO, Chris Davis, Outsider CEOs, Shareholder activists, Oprah
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National...
4 months ago
53
4 months ago
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. ----- Tuesday, December 24th ----- 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4%...
Commoncog
The 2022 Commoncog Recap This was the final newsletter edition sent out to subscribers at the end of 2022. A recap of...
over a year ago
63
over a year ago
This was the final newsletter edition sent out to subscribers at the end of 2022. A recap of Commoncog's best ideas, and a preview of several upcoming experiments.
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.2% Week-over-week, Up 26.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  Inventory is now...
4 months ago
36
4 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 9.7% below the peak for the year (9 weeks ago). Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in January or February. The first graph...
Mazdak
Trump's Antitrust Agenda: Big Tech in the Balance Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 220 thousand last week. Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for...
Mazdak
Playing it Safe Paid Off in 2023, But Now It's Time to Take More Risk with Your Money 2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed...
a year ago
37
a year ago
2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed returns of cash and cash-like investments. This was largely driven by the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, which boosted the yields of money-market funds and similar...
Musings on Markets
Investing Politics: Globalization Backlash and Government Disruption! I will start with a couple of confessions. The first is that I see the world in shades of gray, and...
a month ago
24
a month ago
I will start with a couple of confessions. The first is that I see the world in shades of gray, and in a world where more and more people see only black and white, that makes me an outlier. Thus, if you are reading this post expecting me to post a diatribe or a tribute to Trump,...
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
82
a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage...
4 months ago
34
4 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.50% as of November 30, 2024. According to MBA’s...
Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
4 months ago
32
4 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in February From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in February after moving up 0.3 percent in January. Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent, boosted by a jump of 8.5 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The...
Citation Needed
Trump’s Project 2025 ghostwriters Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked...
3 months ago
35
3 months ago
Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked Trump devotees are writing policies at federal agencies.
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.60 million SAAR in January Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Start 2025 With 4% Increase in January (pay site). There did not appear to be an end-of-month boost in demand, either as a rebound from the mid-month weather-related losses or...
balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
a year ago
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
a year ago
The Diff
Capital-Intensity and Legibility Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic...
3 months ago
30
3 months ago
Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic Reserves; Meta says Yes to Jevons
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
9 months ago
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are...
3 months ago
45
3 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are unchanged and DOW futures are up 68 (fair value). WTI futures at $76.57 per barrel and Brent at $79.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $73, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil...
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence is FINALLY HERE! 🤯 What You NEED to Know! 🧠 Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02...
2 weeks ago
13
2 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Sales in March (4.02 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 2.4% below the February 2024 sales rate. This was the 2nd...
Mazdak
5 Sneaky Financial Traps Sabotaging Your Middle-Class Dream (and How to Escape Them) In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth...
a year ago
40
a year ago
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth amidst rising costs and shifting landscapes requires careful navigation, avoiding insidious traps that can derail your financial goals. This newsletter identifies
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller House Prices From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Only Moderately Lower After Tech...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Only Moderately Lower After Tech Rout Even though there is some uncertainty about the near-term Fed rate outlook and even though we have a Fed meeting coming up on Wednesday, today was all about conventional wisdom for...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
3 months ago
13
3 months ago
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption? When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance) Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
10 months ago
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Victim of Your Own Success Syndrome Midland, Texas. More oil gets drilled here than anywhere else in the USA. And it’s lucrative....
a year ago
8
a year ago
Midland, Texas. More oil gets drilled here than anywhere else in the USA. And it’s lucrative. There’s a lot of money to be made. We’re talking about $100,000+ for risky jobs that don’t require a college degree. Okay, but what happens if you have a non-oil business when oil gets...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tract, Brains, 9/11, Diplomacy, Credit Cards, Crashes, 2024
4 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI January 2025: Architecture firm billings remain soft to start the new year The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.6 for the month, slightly above the...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
4 months ago
30
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #191 The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
a year ago
95
a year ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
The Diff
Tariffs and Currencies Plus! Interfaces; Surface Area; AI's Jobs Impact; Capacity; Capacity, Continued
a month ago
balajis.com
#3 - The President of Palau Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is...
over a year ago
30
over a year ago
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is becoming a digital leader, experimenting with everything from on-chain identity to drone delivery. Despite having less than 20,000 citizens, Palau is a full UN member state. Its path to...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic...
a month ago
15
a month ago
The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 8th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March. ----- Wednesday, April 9th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers...
Calculated Risk
U.S. Births Increased in 2024 From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2024. The NCHS...
2 weeks ago
15
2 weeks ago
From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2024. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2024 was 3,622,673, up 1% from 2023. The general fertility rate was 54.6 births per 1,000 females ages 15–44, an...
Commoncog
How Reliance Won How the Ambanis became the richest family in Asia. This is the third case on the rise of a tycoon,...
a month ago
18
a month ago
How the Ambanis became the richest family in Asia. This is the third case on the rise of a tycoon, and the last one before we start talking about the core pattern in all of these Asian Tycoon’s lives. Part 6 in the Asian Conglomerate Series.
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
11 months ago
108
11 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
Calculated Risk
Housing March 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 30.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 7.0% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing seasonally. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on...
Mazdak
Finance News Roundup - Wednesday, 29th November 😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire...
a year ago
70
a year ago
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a close associate of Warren Buffett, has passed away at the age of 97. Munger was known for his wit, wisdom, and contrarian investment style.
Bits about Money
Requiem for a bank loan A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse...
a year ago
35
a year ago
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse on the banking crisis.
Citation Needed
Issue 46 – Checkmate, crypto Cheating chess-players, cursed mansions, and more defi centralization.
a year ago
Mazdak
Multifamily Real Estate Investment Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential...
a year ago
33
a year ago
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential properties with three or more units. It can be a good investment for a number of reasons, including: Potential for high cash flow. Multifamily properties can generate a steady stream of...
Calculated Risk
Friday: PPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Producer Price...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Producer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
4 months ago
44
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 8.1% Year-over-year due to Easter Timing From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 April As expected due to the Easter and Passover...
2 weeks ago
14
2 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 April As expected due to the Easter and Passover holidays, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 April. ... 13-19 April 2025 (percentage change from...
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
a year ago
46
a year ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate...
2 weeks ago
12
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. The previous three months were...
Commoncog
The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business...
8 months ago
113
8 months ago
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business idea.
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged in December The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46,...
4 months ago
45
4 months ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46, unchanged from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder sentiment held steady to end the year as high home...
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
a year ago
94
a year ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
The Diff
Will There Ever be a Company-Killing Hack? Plus! Divided Attention; Demand; Buying Low?; The Stuff Tax; Mispriced Derivatives
2 months ago
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
a year ago
119
a year ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
Calculated Risk
Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low A brief excerpt: The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Sales in January (4.08 million SAAR) were down 4.9% from the previous month and were 2.0% above the January 2024 sales rate. This was the fourth consecutive...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP)...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth...
The Diff
The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February; Length of Time from... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in February were above expectations; however, starts in December and January were revised down slightly, combined. Total...
Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: Here a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.09 million...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
a year ago
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.2% in November; Up 6.9% Year-over-year From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of...
4 months ago
28
4 months ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of Increases Pending home sales gained 2.2% in November – the fourth consecutive month of increases and the highest level since February 2023 – according to the National Association of REALTORS®....
Mazdak
What is QSBS? As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul...
a year ago
54
a year ago
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul into your company, and you want to see it thrive. But taxes can eat into your profits, leaving you feeling frustrated and discouraged. That's where QSBS (Qualified Small Business...
Bits about Money
Improving how credit cards work under the covers Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can...
over a year ago
26
over a year ago
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can be fixed. Stripe provides examples.
Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q3 The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
4 months ago
30
4 months ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. Click on graph for larger image. Net worth increased $4.8 trillion in Q3 to an all-time high.  As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is below the peak in...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #224 Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending...
5 months ago
58
5 months ago
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending human lifespan, Fastenal's success story, Buffett's early investments, IKEA's founder
Calculated Risk
Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
3 months ago
38
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.315 million SAAR, up from 1.289 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase...
Citation Needed
Guilty or coerced? Ryan Salame’s last interviews before prison Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s...
6 months ago
74
6 months ago
Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s innocent of the charges for which he’s now serving seven and a half years in prison.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #207 Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed...
9 months ago
53
9 months ago
Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed memories, Lost knowledge, Todd Combs, Walter Schloss, Bob Noyce, Nietzsche, Lincoln
Calculated Risk
The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates A brief excerpt: Housing economist Tom Lawler has written extensively on the neutral rate. He has argued that the neutral rate has increased back to...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
3 months ago
39
3 months ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade,...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade, Karp
Commoncog
The Story of Samsung How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s economy.
Seeking Wisdom
A great investor is a great rejector I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for...
12 months ago
150
12 months ago
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
The Diff
De-Risking The 11-Figure Bets Plus! Thematic ETFs; Event-Driven Ads; Lagging Demand; Implementation; Labor Price Discrimination
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024...
3 months ago
30
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 A brief excerpt: Although total housing starts decreased 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, completions increased sharply...
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will...
4 months ago
41
4 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click...
Calculated Risk
A Comment on GDPNow On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed went strongly negative in the most recent reading: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on...
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 12, 2024 The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. ----- Monday, January...
3 months ago
41
3 months ago
The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. ----- Monday, January 13th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 14th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. Producer Price Index for December...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $140.5 Billion in March The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
5 days ago
1
5 days ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $140.5 billion in March, up $17.3 billion from $123.2 billion in February, revised. ...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖 In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
84
a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
6 months ago
74
6 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2020; Year in Review I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales...
over a year ago
12
over a year ago
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. We did about $7.4 million in sales in 2020, mostly through e-commerce channels like Amazon and Walmart.com. This article is going to tell you what that was like and how things were different in 2020 than in 2019. To...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate...
3 months ago
20
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. The previous three months were...
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure...
Calculated Risk
January 31st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
over a year ago
147
over a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Mazdak
Google's AI Search Tool: A Traffic Nightmare for Publishers? AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $98.4 Billion in December The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
3 months ago
20
3 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November, revised. ...
The Diff
Peak Berkshire (In a Good Way) Plus! Diff Jobs; Decoupling; Who Trains the Model-Trainers; Cash Cycles; AI and ARR; Gating
6 days ago
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.47% in December From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.50% of servicers’...
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans...
a month ago
20
a month ago
From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans International travel to the United States is expected to slide by 5 percent this year, contributing to a $64 billion shortfall for the travel industry, according to Tourism Economics. The...
Mazdak
Anthropic & Amazon Partnership In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup,...
5 months ago
64
5 months ago
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup, and Amazon, the tech giant with cloud dominance.
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
4 months ago
29
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
The Rational Walk
By diverse means we arrive at the same end Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
a year ago
Moneyness
How should money laundering laws apply to DeFi? Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them? DeFi,...
7 months ago
9
7 months ago
Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them? DeFi, or decentralized finance, is an emerging segment of the broader financial industry that delivers traditional financial services, say like trading or lending, using a novel type of...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
5 months ago
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2025, including The Lessons of...
a month ago
18
a month ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2025, including The Lessons of History, American Journey, the works of Aristophanes, Plato, Xenophon, and more.
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
a month ago
9
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
oftwominds-Charles...
When Markets Misbehave Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of...
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
over a year ago
77
over a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #225 A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role...
5 months ago
53
5 months ago
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role in Trump's Victory, Taxes in Retirement, James J. Hill, IKEA, F. A. Hayek, Shakespeare
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2023 Results Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices,...
a year ago
34
a year ago
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices, Clayton Homes, Apple, and share repurchases.
Mazdak
How Big Tech Could Lose Everything to Appease Trump In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald...
6 months ago
40
6 months ago
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald Trump, a man who has openly attacked these companies, return to power.
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
a year ago
25
a year ago
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 months ago
35
3 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 17,...
Mazdak
Big Tech Layoffs, Musk Acquiring TikTok, ChatGPT's New Features, ... Meta is executing a strategic 5% workforce reduction, but this isn't your typical layoff.
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Statement Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 months ago
31
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
Mazdak
Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of Ocelot, its first quantum chip, developed in collaboration with Caltech.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 33.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 10, 2025....
Mazdak
Workspace AI Features Now Included for Free Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered productivity tools.
The Diff
The Nvidia Way is the Regular Way, Just Faster Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese...
4 months ago
52
4 months ago
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese Characteristics
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
206
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Diff
Expect More Politically Inscrutable Assassinations Plus! Coasian Bargains; Movies; Currency; OpenAI; Tariffs
5 days ago
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US) Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
a year ago
116
a year ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Markets Closed for Good Friday Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. US markets will...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2025
Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
9 months ago
90
9 months ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
over a year ago
86
over a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
over a year ago
83
over a year ago
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home ATM" Mostly Closed At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
4 months ago
27
4 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 2nd...
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
4 months ago
11
4 months ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...