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Moneyness
Canadian banks as U.S. hostages? BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
BMO Financial Center at Market Square in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump has said he wants to use "economic force" against Canada. In my previous post, I worried that one way this force could be wielded was through Canada's dangerous dependence on U.S.-controlled...
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
a year ago
89
a year ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
Mazdak
Netflix Discontinues Basic Plan in Canada Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it...
a year ago
28
a year ago
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it plans to discontinue the plan altogether, but it is no longer available to new or rejoining members. The Basic plan was the most affordable option for Netflix subscribers in Canada,...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
a year ago
128
a year ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 Results — Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on...
a year ago
53
a year ago
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on results in Q3 2023 as well as a longer term view.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209 Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
9 months ago
96
9 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 2.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Unchanged YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Closing out the...
4 months ago
44
4 months ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Closing out the year with Dec visitation of 3.4M visitors (+0.2% YoY), Las Vegas hosted approx. 41.7M visitors for the year, up 2.1% from last year’s 40.8M visitors. emphasis added Click on graph...
Mazdak
Meta's Fake AI Profiles, the TikTok Ban, Telegram Updates, and Microsoft's $80 Billion AI Investment... Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
5 months ago
The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
a year ago
124
a year ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
balajis.com
The Network State Book A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
28
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
The Diff
When and How Will AI Offer People Search? Plus! Consumption Patterns; Training Data; Grift Confluence; Marketing and Piracy; Convergence
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 10% in December From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index...
4 months ago
28
4 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 10.2% in December to 212.0 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 192.3. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.2%...
balajis.com
Network State Conference 2023 Come to Amsterdam on October 30, 2023 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Mazdak
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Advertising Monopoly. Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About...
a year ago
28
a year ago
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About Apple's Next Flagship. Reddit Protests Continue as Company Threatens to Remove Moderators. Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. Gannett, the largest U.S. newspaper chain, has...
Calculated Risk
February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Rational Walk
A Mind at Play Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many...
a year ago
35
a year ago
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many subjects discussed in his fascinating biography.
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 months ago
212
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
Musings on Markets
DeepSeek crashes the AI Party: Story Break, Change or Shift? I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics...
4 months ago
23
4 months ago
I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics of AI are pedestrian and that there will be things that I don't get right in this post. That said, DeepSeek's abrupt entry into the AI conversation has the potential to change the...
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
6 months ago
38
6 months ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $0.2 Trillion in Q4 The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $169.4 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities...
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
a year ago
90
a year ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #204 Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
11 months ago
100
11 months ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
Farnam Street
Let Go of the Learning Baggage We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it...
over a year ago
70
over a year ago
We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it when needed. More knowledge means better instincts; better insights into opportunities for both you and your organization. You will ultimately produce better work if you give...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-May provides a snapshot of the current housing market. reported that there were “more than 1 million homes...
Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
over a year ago
160
over a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
Mazdak
The Rollercoaster Ride of Long-Term Rates: What it Means for You and the Economy Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that had everyone from policymakers to financial analysts glued to their screens? Well, guess what? It's mostly reversed! What does this mean? In a nutshell, it means a sigh of relief...
Mazdak
The Big News: ChatGPT Pays Up for Content, Ushering in a New Era for Media & AI Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has...
a year ago
50
a year ago
Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has signed a multi-year licensing deal with Axel Springer, the media giant behind Politico and Business Insider. This isn't just any deal, it's a game-changer
balajis.com
No Cap Fed-killed banks took $100B+ from BTFP to stay afloat, but who's counting?
a year ago
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
over a year ago
Mazdak
Tesla's Robotaxi: A Gamble? Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on...
7 months ago
45
7 months ago
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10th.
FIRE v London
Mar ’23: Harvesting tax losses March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in...
over a year ago
59
over a year ago
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in the French Alps (finally) having great conditions – sadly too late for me to enjoy. Further north, it’s been a month of big change in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon, the...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.3% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
118
a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
Commoncog
Building a Valuable Business? It's How You Spend It That Matters The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business...
a year ago
Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
3 months ago
31
3 months ago
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
Mazdak
Tech Titans: AI Race Heats Up! We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial...
7 months ago
36
7 months ago
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial intelligence.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #198 Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How...
a year ago
120
a year ago
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How to spend your days, AI and productivity
The Rational Walk
The Digest #159 Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning...
a year ago
34
a year ago
Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning books, How Threads was built, BYD challenges Tesla, Katalin Karikó's inspiring life
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket? The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
a year ago
97
a year ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.47% in December From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The...
4 months ago
30
4 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.50% of servicers’...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February...
3 months ago
30
3 months ago
The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February 17th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Washington's Birthday. ----- Tuesday, February 18th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey...
Commoncog
How to Use Power How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
6 months ago
77
6 months ago
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the imported gold will show up in inventories. GDPNow will correct for this once the gold is included as an increase in inventories, but currently GDPNow just included the import side. ...
Musings on Markets
The Sugar Daddy Effect? Assessing Corporate venture capital, Sovereign funds and Green Energy! It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would...
7 months ago
13
7 months ago
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would offend some people, as sexist or worse. I briefly considering expanding the title to  "Sugar Daddies and Molasses Mommies", but that just sounds awkward, or even replacing the words...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 219 thousand last week. Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is...
oftwominds-Charles...
It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that...
4 weeks ago
28
4 weeks ago
I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that I've maintained them. It was 20 years ago today--well, actually, yesterday--that I launched this blog into the swirling rapids of the Web. As we know, time flies when you're...
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 1 This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts...
a year ago
43
a year ago
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Take the statement, ‘I will only go for a walk if it’s nice outside AND I have free time.’ This can be neatly represented using a truth table. We can…
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
4 months ago
20
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Here are a few more local markets before the NAR releases December Existing Home sales tomorrow, Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. This will be the 3rd...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage rates were already in line with the lowest levels since December 18th by last Thursday. They dropped to the best levels since December 12th a day later. end of last week. 30 year...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Investment Advice Which Stands the Test of Time There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud). It advises that you...
a year ago
16
a year ago
There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud). It advises that you keep 1/3rd of your wealth in business, 1/3rd in land, and 1/3rd in gold. It's genius. Why? First, it's simple. Second, business, and, to a lesser extent, land, (but not gold, usually)...
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI) Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
a year ago
116
a year ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Data, Invisible Software, The Post, AI, Cheating, Control, Star Wars
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
4 months ago
38
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Moneyness
Bitcoin as a tool of U.S. economic statecraft Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed...
10 months ago
12
10 months ago
Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed capacity [source] Can a network that has been marketed as being resistant to government power be harnessed by the U.S. administrative state in order to attain its foreign policy...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM Services From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond...
4 months ago
40
4 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where they left off before the X-mas/New Year holiday weeks. ... Although the past 2...
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for...
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate...
5 months ago
32
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome....
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome. Okay, players: jokers are wild, but with a twist: the entire deck is jokers. Since everyone at the table will have five Aces, nobody wins. Welcome to the Trade War Poker...
Mazdak
TFSA 2025: Your Complete Guide to Tax-Free Savings in Canada In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to...
6 months ago
50
6 months ago
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to be a bright spot for Canadian investors.
oftwominds-Charles...
The AI Fad Just Burned to the Waterline Sometimes wide moats and billions of dollars to blow lead not to glory but to hubris, which beckons...
4 months ago
17
4 months ago
Sometimes wide moats and billions of dollars to blow lead not to glory but to hubris, which beckons Nemesis. While everyone was busy reassuring themselves the stock market was still A-OK, the driver of the market--the AI fad--just burned to the waterline. Yes, the current...
Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Services Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a...
a month ago
5
a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 12 and DOW futures are down 80 (fair value). WTI futures at $58.29 per barrel and Brent at...
Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR:...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY, I noted: On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 1.3% from January and are now down 6.7% from...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans International travel to the United States is expected to slide by 5 percent this year, contributing to a $64 billion shortfall for the travel industry, according to Tourism Economics. The...
The Rational Walk
Thoughts on Israel’s 9/11 On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast...
a year ago
36
a year ago
On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast majority of whom were civilians.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #168 Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's...
a year ago
36
a year ago
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's IPO, Costco's clothing, Todd Combs interview, Equifax, and more ...
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
a year ago
85
a year ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Inbound Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in December Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
4 months ago
30
4 months ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
Mazdak
Minimize Taxes, Maximize Inheritance: A Canadian Guide to Estate Planning with Real Estate For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key...
a year ago
55
a year ago
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key concerns. In this context, real estate, often the largest asset, presents unique challenges and opportunities. While strategies like adding children to titles were once popular,...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the...
a month ago
14
a month ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised average of 223,000. emphasis added The following...
Mazdak
How Long (and Why) You Must Keep Every Business Record 🇨🇦 Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable...
a year ago
63
a year ago
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable records. This isn't just about staying organized; it's about complying with the law, managing your finances, and protecting yourself from audits. But with so many rules and regulations,...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier...
4 months ago
42
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
balajis.com
Only Newsom Can Go To China If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Financial Kessler Effect Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a high-speed projectile with the potential to disable any other part of the system it impacts. Complex systems can undergo what's known as phase shifts, where the state of the system...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of May 11, 2025 The key reports this week are April CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, May 12th...
3 weeks ago
13
3 weeks ago
The key reports this week are April CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, May 12th ----- 2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for April. ----- Tuesday, May 13th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for...
Calculated Risk
January 3rd COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
5 months ago
32
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
balajis.com
The Men's Party Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
a year ago
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
8 months ago
97
8 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
Mazdak
Interest Rates Dip, But Will Demand Follow? As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a...
a year ago
47
a year ago
As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a curious conundrum. While the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for qualifying loans sunk to 6.83%, purchase applications surprisingly declined 1%. This begs the question:
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not? Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #181 Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò...
a year ago
53
a year ago
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò Machiavelli, internal vs. external goals, Safe withdrawal rates, Protecting your time
The Diff
The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in November Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index...
4 months ago
28
4 months ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Northeastern, New England States Continue to Lead US for...
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
7 months ago
78
7 months ago
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
3 months ago
30
3 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 18 and DOW futures are up 88 (fair value). WTI futures at $71.00 per barrel and Brent at $74.66 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices...
Musings on Markets
Beat your Bot: Building your moat against AI It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest...
9 months ago
13
9 months ago
It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest mover, but Open AI introduced the world to ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. While ChatGPT itself represented a low-tech variation of AI, it opened the door to AI not only as a business...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Why We Shouldn’t “Buy the Dip” “Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the...
over a year ago
13
over a year ago
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the assumption that asset prices will quickly revert, enabling you to make money. This article explains why a government-driven culture of “buying the dip” can be damaging to you and...
Citation Needed
Elon Musk and the right’s war on Wikipedia The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part...
5 months ago
55
5 months ago
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part of an intensifying campaign against free and open access information.
The Rational Walk
Coffee Can Investing Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can...
a year ago
35
a year ago
Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can produce superior results when one accounts for human nature.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #167 TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds,...
a year ago
41
a year ago
TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds, Interviews of Marc Andreessen and Shane Parrish, David Senra's review of Jimmy Buffett's autobiography
Mazdak
Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
7 months ago
The Rational Walk
Will Progressive’s Growth Strategy Pay Off? The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter...
a year ago
27
a year ago
The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter due to catastrophe losses and inadequate pricing.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #187 Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
a year ago
96
a year ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226 Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in February; Core CPI increased 0.2% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Down 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing...
4 months ago
40
4 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December Part 1: Current...
Mazdak
The Future of TikTok in the U.S.: What Happens on January 19? The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence "Edges Up" in January The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47,...
4 months ago
35
4 months ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47, up from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Edges Up Even as Market Risk Concerns...
Moneyness
Here’s why we tolerate fake check scams Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad...
4 months ago
16
4 months ago
Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad experiences with banks. Here’s a recent example. In November 2024, a charity inadvertently accepted a fake check from a would-be donor. The charity's bank allowed the charity to deposit...
Mazdak
Compound Interest: A Comprehensive Guide Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
7 months ago
Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
a year ago
78
a year ago
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
a year ago
116
a year ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence is FINALLY HERE! 🤯 What You NEED to Know! 🧠 Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
5 months ago
33
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
5 months ago
40
5 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
Calculated Risk
Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
5 months ago
38
5 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 50.9% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.9%...
4 months ago
23
4 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.9% in January, up from 49.2% in December. The employment index was at 50.3%, up from 45.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 55.1%, up from 52.1%. Manufacturing PMI®...
Calculated Risk
March Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 16.6 million SAAR, Up 5.9% YoY From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content). ...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Deliveries appear to have accelerated sharply in the middle of the month, creating momentum that could cause sales to overshoot the forecast. Conversely, overall...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Is China Taking Over US Retail? Yes. Let me explain. Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to...
over a year ago
12
over a year ago
Yes. Let me explain. Amazon made it easy for Chinese companies to sell their products directly to American consumers. In response, the Chinese, after having hollowed out American manufacturing, have moved up the value chain to do the same thing to American wholesale and retail....
Mazdak
5 Sneaky Financial Traps Sabotaging Your Middle-Class Dream (and How to Escape Them) In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth...
a year ago
41
a year ago
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth amidst rising costs and shifting landscapes requires careful navigation, avoiding insidious traps that can derail your financial goals. This newsletter identifies
The Rational Walk
GEICO Prioritizes Profits Over Market Share Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price...
a year ago
39
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price of ceding market share that will be costly to regain in the future.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
5 months ago
38
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
FIRE v London
Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the...
3 months ago
34
3 months ago
Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the so-called “Pakistani grooming gangs” scandal here in the UK, with Elon Musk weighing in. At the time it seemed remarkable but one month later, as I write this, I am pleased to say I can’t...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all! If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
3 months ago
20
3 months ago
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
Farnam Street
Evaluating Information: Find the Signal in the Noise We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what...
over a year ago
60
over a year ago
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what matters from what doesn’t. The good news is that you can train your brain to evaluate the quality of information. Not only can you quickly determine if someone knows what they are...
Calculated Risk
Predicting the Next Recession Over a decade ago, in 2013, I wrote a post "Predicting the Next Recession. That post was in...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Over a decade ago, in 2013, I wrote a post "Predicting the Next Recession. That post was in response to several recession forecasts (that were incorrect). • "An exogenous event such as a pandemic, significant military conflict, disruption of energy supplies for any reason, a...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
4 weeks ago
8
4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to to the Fed funds rate is expected at this meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC...
Musings on Markets
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers...
a year ago
11
a year ago
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers on companies that I should value next. While I don't have the time or the bandwidth to value all of the suggested companies, a reader from Iceland, a couple of weeks ago, made a...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale! I’m watching...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal. At the Federal Reserve, we are intently focused on the...
The Rational Walk
Just Hold the Goddamn Stock! Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock!...
8 months ago
57
8 months ago
Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock! Unfortunately, his advice is not easy to follow.
Musings on Markets
The Siren Song of Sustainability: The Theocratic Trifecta's Third Leg! You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in...
6 months ago
12
6 months ago
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in sanctimony, nurtured in hypocrisy and sold with sophistry. My voyage with ESG began with curiosity in my 2019 exploration of what it purported to measure, turned to cynicism as the...
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
a year ago
112
a year ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #185 Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at...
a year ago
70
a year ago
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at Alibaba's IPO, Chris Davis, Outsider CEOs, Shareholder activists, Oprah
balajis.com
What are the Key Properties of Bitcoin? There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are...
4 months ago
4
4 months ago
There are plenty of unwritten rules when it comes to proposing protocol changes in Bitcoin. Some are philosophical, some are technical, and some are a blend.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: PPI From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
4 months ago
38
4 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The more important consideration is the new round of potential volatility on the horizon. Whereas it was the jobs report last week, this week's critical data will be Wednesday's Consumer...
Moneyness
Canadian guilt, Russian oil We Canadians are overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin, so when the CBC published an expose last...
4 months ago
19
4 months ago
We Canadians are overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin, so when the CBC published an expose last week about "banned Russian oil" sneaking into Canada, it was read in despair by most of us. What an awful failure of Canadian sanctions policy.  As with a lot of sanctions...
Mazdak
Workspace AI Features Now Included for Free Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered...
4 months ago
39
4 months ago
Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered productivity tools.
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
a year ago
Mazdak
How DeepSeek, a Chinese AI Startup, is Challenging the Titans of Silicon Valley In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western...
4 months ago
39
4 months ago
In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western giants like OpenAI, Google, and Meta.
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
5 months ago
15
5 months ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
a year ago
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.36% in March From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March The...
a month ago
17
a month ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.38% of servicers’...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 months ago
17
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 234 initial claims down from 242 thousand last week. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for January...
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
a year ago
123
a year ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
a year ago
100
a year ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
The Diff
Central Banks and the Guidance Paradox Plus! Crowded Trades; CoreWeave; The Bots; Accounting; Political Meme Stocks
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
3 months ago
24
3 months ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI January 2025: Architecture firm billings remain soft to start the new year The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.6 for the month, slightly above the...
Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
13
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Musings on Markets
Fed up with Fed Talk? Fact-checking Central Banking Fairy Tales! The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee...
8 months ago
13
8 months ago
The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee finally got around to “cutting rates”, and doing so by more than expected. This action, much debated and discussed during all of 2024, was greeted as "big" news, and market...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread VC, Personal Finance, Careers, Hedge Funds, Hiring, Investing, Coase, Gates
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release February Existing Home sales on Thursday, March 20th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 4.08 million...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Older Articles I’ve Written In reverse chronological order: Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer...
over a year ago
12
over a year ago
In reverse chronological order: Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer (October 18, 2020) The Right to a Nonconsensus Opinion (June 9, 2020) Never Invest in Anything Made of Metal (May 2, 2020) Simple 3 Step Strategy to Stop the Coronavirus in the...
The Rational Walk
The Iliad Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
a year ago
93
a year ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
a year ago
158
a year ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #224 Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending...
6 months ago
61
6 months ago
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending human lifespan, Fastenal's success story, Buffett's early investments, IKEA's founder
Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
5 months ago
34
5 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
a year ago
86
a year ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
9 months ago
The Diff
Initiations Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
NY Fed Q4 Report: Household Debt Increased; High auto loan delinquency rates From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
5 months ago
41
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 232 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third...
balajis.com
Bond Villain When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
a year ago
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
a year ago
91
a year ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April A...
3 weeks ago
6
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in April. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: 1.1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024 From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Nationwide, borrower equity increased by $281.9 billion, or 1.7% year-over-year. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which...
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
10 months ago
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Margin Call, Math, BNPL, AI and the Environment, Bonds, Favors, Tariffs, College
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #193 Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect...
a year ago
119
a year ago
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect on the brain, Race and cardiovascular disease, Inflation's effect on insurance pricing
Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
4 months ago
180
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Moneyness
Trump claims US banks can't open in Canada—US banks disagree In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained yesterday on social media that CANADA DOESN'T EVEN ALLOW U.S. BANKS TO OPEN OR DO BUSINESS THERE. And so according to Trump, Canada doubly deserves to be disciplined with...
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch I am going on "recession watch" for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I've been writing this...
a month ago
17
a month ago
I am going on "recession watch" for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I've been writing this blog. In December 2022 I went on "recession watch", but I noted "My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession."  And the economy did avoid...
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024 At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
5 months ago
42
5 months ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201 Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
a year ago
113
a year ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 18-19
The Rational Walk
Buffett Resumes Occidental Purchases Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
a year ago
Citation Needed
Issue 51 – It's quiet... too quiet It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7% The latest headlines...
a month ago
17
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7% The latest headlines involve heavy criticism of Fed Chair Powell on the part of The President. Without any comment on whether that criticism is justified, we can still observe that markets find it...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Sales in March (4.02 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 2.4% below the February 2024 sales rate. This was the 2nd...
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
a year ago
82
a year ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
Commoncog
Understand the Shape of the Game You're Playing What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary...
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
4 months ago
29
4 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Welcome to the January 2025 Apartment List National Rent Report. The national median monthly rent closed out 2024 at $1,373 in December, after...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
3 months ago
20
3 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 460 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for February.   The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At The...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.5% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 6.9...
Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a...
2 months ago
15
2 months ago
The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. We forecast a 0.29% increase...
Citation Needed
POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still...
8 months ago
84
8 months ago
A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still maintaining a presence on third-party platforms.
The Diff
You Can't Measure AI Market Share Because it Lives at too Many Layers Plus! Moderation; Unavoidable Timing; Sad AIs; Friendshoring
a month ago
The Diff
Venture and Media Plus! Cluely; Big Tech Sees Like a State; Distribution; Student Loans and Demand Shocks; Rollups
a month ago
18
a month ago
Plus! Cluely; Big Tech Sees Like a State; Distribution; Student Loans and Demand Shocks; Rollups
The Diff
Is an AI Startup a Company or a Gig? Plus! Reasoning; Coding Assistants; Human-Level Intelligence; Insider Information; The China Squeeze
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in April; Up 4.9% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in April Wholesale...
3 weeks ago
7
3 weeks ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in April Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were much higher in April compared to March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) increased to 208.2, an...
Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me? The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
a year ago
142
a year ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #156 Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century...
a year ago
32
a year ago
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century anarchy, Buffett and Japan, Claude Hopkins, Benjamin Franklin
The Diff
Storing Up Untainted Data Plus! Niches; Creator Economy; AI and Filters; Trade Wars; Peak Gaming?
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #222 Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online...
7 months ago
63
7 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online Speech, Price Controls, Shakespeare's Caesar, Musk and SpaceX, Micro-Cap Investing
balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Mazdak
Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of Ocelot, its first quantum chip, developed in collaboration with Caltech.
Citation Needed
Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”? Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How...
9 months ago
87
9 months ago
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How does it stack up to other industry polls, which are often heavily manipulated to paint a deceptively rosy picture?
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
a month ago
18
a month ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail,...
The Rational Walk
The Year in Review Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
a year ago
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.4% YoY as...
4 months ago
27
4 months ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.4% YoY as of December 2024, down from 4.5% YoY in November. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #186 Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
a year ago
95
a year ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
5 months ago
55
5 months ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief...
2 months ago
15
2 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow • Home price growth is beginning to cool as modestly improved demand is running up against higher levels of inventory across most major...
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Chicago Fed National...
5 months ago
49
5 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease. New Home Sales for November from...
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
a year ago
102
a year ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
balajis.com
Network School Curriculum Topics, reading, and speakers.
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third...
Mazdak
Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the...
a year ago
87
a year ago
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the table! This dramatic pivot throws a spotlight on the tightening grip of global regulators on tech mergers, leaving investors and industry players to wonder:
Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged in December The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46,...
5 months ago
49
5 months ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46, unchanged from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder sentiment held steady to end the year as high home...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #174 Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions,...
a year ago
50
a year ago
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions, The AI Gold Rush, 100th anniversary of Hitler's beer hall putsch, The Federalist Papers
Calculated Risk
Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different A brief excerpt: We are in a period of significant policy uncertainty and there isn’t a good historical analog for the current period. However, for...
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven: The Technicals A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in...
a year ago
FIRE v London
Jan ’23: Mr Market defuses my tax bombshell January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during...
over a year ago
74
over a year ago
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during the month (not to Davos, no), and enjoy myself in London despite the wintry weather. What you’re paying for in Mayfair these days Market movements in January The markets on the...
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
107
a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate...
4 months ago
24
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. The previous three months were...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #199 Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's...
a year ago
79
a year ago
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, A long run perspective, the parent-therapy trap
The Diff
Globalization, Regulatory Arbitrage, and Reshoring-on-Paper Plus! Antitrust Enforcement; Full-Stack; Decentralizing; Spoiler Bids; Platform Management
3 months ago
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not? Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
Citation Needed
OpenAI featured chatbot is pushing extreme surgeries to “subhuman” men OpenAI's featured chatbot recommends $200,000 in surgeries while promoting incel ideology
4 days ago
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Now I am on recession watch, but still not yet predicting a...
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
57
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
Molson Hart's Blog -...
When People Outperform Data People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can...
6 months ago
19
6 months ago
People who succeed via analysis of numbers and facts need to learn that understanding of people can make that analysis unnecessary and can even outperform it. Examples: 1. Amazon did not make money between its 1994 founding through 2002. There was no financial or business...
The Diff
Why do Stocks Only go up at Night? Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil Companies Want?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184 Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
a year ago
90
a year ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
oftwominds-Charles...
25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead? Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. As a result of...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury...
Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
a year ago
120
a year ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
a year ago
91
a year ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #205 Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio...
11 months ago
68
11 months ago
Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio rebalancing, Ben Graham in 1955, Sam Walton, LBJ, Robert Moses, The origins of language
Musings on Markets
Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath! I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what...
2 days ago
4
2 days ago
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what I thought about the S&P ratings downgrade for the US. Since I stay blissfully unaware of most news stories and things related to markets when I am on the beach, I had to look up...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.7 million in January From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.3 million. Within...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
a year ago
102
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
Commoncog
The Origin of the Tatas How one of the oldest business empires on the subcontinent got started, and how one man’s values...
a week ago
7
a week ago
How one of the oldest business empires on the subcontinent got started, and how one man’s values laid the foundation for five generations of business conduct.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in...
4 months ago
44
4 months ago
Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in doing what was previously thought to be impossible. It's not so much a unified theory of extreme effort as it is a comprehensive refutation of the existence of such theories. There...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in March: Lowest since May 2020 This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to...
Commoncog
Dancing Landscapes in Business Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the...
over a year ago
89
over a year ago
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the wickedness of business.
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 1.4% in March On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and...
a month ago
90
a month ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.6 percent from March 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
444
a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd...
5 months ago
42
5 months ago
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. ----- Monday, December 16th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. ...
oftwominds-Charles...
Last Gasp of the Landfill Economy It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate...
a month ago
19
a month ago
It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate its demise. Globalization's great gift wasn't low prices--it was the collapse of durability, transforming the global economy into a Landfill Economy of shoddy products made...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2023 Results Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices,...
a year ago
37
a year ago
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices, Clayton Homes, Apple, and share repurchases.
Mazdak
The Rise of Nvidia and the Fall of Intel For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its...
7 months ago
52
7 months ago
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its influence in the tech world.
Calculated Risk
January 12th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 months ago
33
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ending our dependence on SWIFT It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a...
a month ago
7
a month ago
It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a choice morsel by a much larger predator: our former ally the United States of America. In President Trump's very own words, he wants to use "economic force" to join Canada and the...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #216 Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
8 months ago
81
8 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
The Rational Walk
The Digest #213 Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
9 months ago
86
9 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Record Inbound Traffic for January This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or...
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
a year ago
123
a year ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
Mazdak
Bluesky’s Next Big Move: Introducing the Photo-Sharing App Flashes A new contender for the future of decentralized social media
4 months ago
The Rational Walk
Herodotus Herodotus is often described as the father of history for his narrative of the Greco-Persian Wars of...
10 months ago
62
10 months ago
Herodotus is often described as the father of history for his narrative of the Greco-Persian Wars of the fifth century BC.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
5 months ago
47
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November, up 3.3% from October’s preliminary pace and up 4.6% from...
Calculated Risk
Goldman on Employment Report and FOMC A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well...
4 months ago
40
4 months ago
A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. ... The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting a 478k gain in household employment and an unchanged...
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
a year ago
53
a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Citation Needed
Issue 60 – Raging in favor of the machine The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
11 months ago
The Rational Walk
Real Estate Adventures Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with...
a year ago
51
a year ago
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with realtors, one positive and one negative.
Calculated Risk
Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025? Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase...
5 months ago
39
5 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
FIRE v London
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
4 months ago
68
4 months ago
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Interest Rates Since the Federal Reserve Began Cutting Rates From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on graph for larger image. 10-Year T1PS Yield
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
4 weeks ago
9
4 weeks ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I'm still not yet...
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
over a year ago
100
over a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February,...
Mazdak
OpenAI Ventures into Robotics, Grok App Launch, Trump Convicted, and US Jobs Report Highlights Big robotics news from OpenAI 🤖
4 months ago
Farnam Street
Learning Through Play Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind...
over a year ago
86
over a year ago
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind leads us to find new information, better understand our own capabilities, and find unexpected beauty around us. Arithmetic is one example of an area we can explore through play....
Mazdak
Google's AI Search Tool: A Traffic Nightmare for Publishers? AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
a year ago
The Diff
"Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question Plus! Solve for X + X; Refactoring; AI and Distribution; How Models Think; The AI Business Model
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 27.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always...
4 months ago
28
4 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. Inventory is now up 1.7% from the bottom three weeks ago. If three weeks ago was the seasonal...
Mazdak
Meta's Oakley Smart Glasses, TikTok's Revenue Nearly Doubled YouTube's Last Year, Hidden Hashtags on... “What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
4 months ago
FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
9 months ago
80
9 months ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million...
4 months ago
35
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up. Total starts were down 4.4% in...
Calculated Risk
April 11th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 25 and DOW futures are up 160 (fair value). WTI futures at $68.28 per barrel and Brent at...
Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
a year ago
66
a year ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...
Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
88
a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
balajis.com
Network School 2025 Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
4 months ago
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
a year ago
26
a year ago
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
10 months ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter, Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: NYSE...
4 months ago
30
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: NYSE and the NASDAQ will be closed in observance of a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. Small Business Optimism Index for December. initial weekly unemployment...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 201,000 This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The...
4 months ago
37
4 months ago
This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
2 months ago
14
2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Fannie and Freddie:...
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦) Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
a year ago
85
a year ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
77
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine? Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence....
a year ago
118
a year ago
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence. Recent development at Daily Journal raise concerns.
Mazdak
Jury Delivers Major Blow to Google in Antitrust Case: Play Store Deemed Illegal Monopoly In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury...
a year ago
45
a year ago
In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury has found Google Play guilty of violating antitrust laws in a lawsuit brought by Epic Games. This landmark decision has sent shockwaves through the tech industry and raised questions...
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers’ portfolio...
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
4 months ago
31
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel Unchanged YoY Anecdotally, I've heard that airlines ticket prices are falling. That suggests less travel. Also,...
4 weeks ago
6
4 weeks ago
Anecdotally, I've heard that airlines ticket prices are falling. That suggests less travel. Also, the Real ID restrictions go in place tomorrow, and that might impact domestic airline travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of May 5, 2025. ...
Calculated Risk
February 14th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Moving Sideways Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print...
3 months ago
22
3 months ago
From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print and a tenth higher than our tracking estimate. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 28th] emphasis added From Goldman:...
Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
a year ago
113
a year ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief...
4 weeks ago
7
4 weeks ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow • Improved inventory levels are providing more options and a softer price dynamic for homeowners shopping this spring There is much...
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
7 months ago
83
7 months ago
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
11 months ago
119
11 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...