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Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 months ago
33
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
83
a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.3% to 3.0% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up two-tenths...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar. [Jan 24th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final sales estimates unchanged, each at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a month ago
14
a month ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024 At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
4 months ago
38
4 months ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US...
3 months ago
41
3 months ago
The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day "Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter." Martin Luther King Jr. ----- Tuesday,...
balajis.com
#1 - Vitalik Buterin on Starting New Countries, Upgrading Ethereum, and Improving Yourself Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new...
over a year ago
23
over a year ago
Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new countries, improving yourself, and upgrading Ethereum. OUTLINE 00:00 - Introduction 01:27 - A brief history of Ethereum 16:54 - The DAO hack 20:32 - The Devcon 2 attack 33:24 - The...
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
a year ago
Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
10 months ago
Mazdak
Anthropic & Amazon Partnership In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup,...
4 months ago
61
4 months ago
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup, and Amazon, the tech giant with cloud dominance.
Mazdak
OpenAI's Meltdown: A Fight for the Future of AI The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching...
a year ago
46
a year ago
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching implications for the future of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI, known for its groundbreaking ChatGPT technology, is considered a frontrunner in the AI race, and its fate could...
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
a year ago
83
a year ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. The previous three months were...
Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR:...
4 weeks ago
12
4 weeks ago
Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY, I noted: On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 1.3% from January and are now down 6.7% from...
Farnam Street
Language: Why We Hear More Than Words It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me...
over a year ago
79
over a year ago
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me forgetting her birthday! Then why is she throwing dishes in the kitchen? Are the two things related? I wish I had a translator for my spouse. What is going on?” The answer: Extreme...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Mazdak
How Public Company Executives Borrow Against Their Shares to Defer Taxes For ultra-wealthy individuals and executives of public companies, borrowing against their shares is...
a month ago
20
a month ago
For ultra-wealthy individuals and executives of public companies, borrowing against their shares is a powerful financial strategy.
Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket? The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
a year ago
84
a year ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
The Diff
Investors as Translators Plus! $44bn; Banks and Rates Trades; Connected Cows; Competing With AI; Recaps
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226 Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
4 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176 Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
89
a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
a year ago
96
a year ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
Mazdak
Elon Musk: All In He's the richest man in the world, a tech titan, and now...
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024 From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades...
4 months ago
29
4 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. As the nation’s...
Bits about Money
The business of wallets How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
11 months ago
100
11 months ago
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
Mazdak
TikTok, Netflix, and the Future of Media: Key Insights from 2024's Biggest Winners In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and...
2 months ago
33
2 months ago
In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and Netflix setting unprecedented benchmarks in user engagement, ad revenue, and growth.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Clarifying the Costs of Selling on Various Marketplaces In my piece on e-commerce in 2020, I made a mistake. I wrote "In 2013, Amazon’s expenses as a...
over a year ago
7
over a year ago
In my piece on e-commerce in 2020, I made a mistake. I wrote "In 2013, Amazon’s expenses as a percent of Amazon sales were 33.16%. In 2018, they were 49.70%. In 2020, they were 51.75%." I made a mistake in equating two different calculations. The first calculation is what Amazon...
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
59
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
Mazdak
How DeepSeek, a Chinese AI Startup, is Challenging the Titans of Silicon Valley In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western giants like OpenAI, Google, and Meta.
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
79
a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
11 months ago
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected"', Expect "higher... From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Increased 5% YoY in January This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the January 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 534 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season" in April The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40,...
4 days ago
5
4 days ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40, up from 39 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing...
The Diff
StubHub: Market-Making in a Maximally-Heterogeneous Asset Class Plus! Lobbying Through Products; Models; Digital Assets; Skill Levels; Risk Premia
3 weeks ago
Citation Needed
Issue 43 – Laser eyes Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
a year ago
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
a year ago
90
a year ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
over a year ago
28
over a year ago
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
The Diff
Does VIX Have Fundamentals? Plus! Customer Service; Latency; Corp Dev.; Scavengers; Broken Windows
2 days ago
Mazdak
CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦 Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension...
5 months ago
28
5 months ago
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS).
Bits about Money
Banking in very uncertain times We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we...
over a year ago
24
over a year ago
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we may not get about it.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2 This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
83
a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Annual Report My thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual report and Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show...
Moneyness
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
3 months ago
11
3 months ago
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201 Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
10 months ago
107
10 months ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides,...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides, Sophocles, Persian Fire, Hillbilly Elegy, and more.
Calculated Risk
February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore,...
a month ago
22
a month ago
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore, because it's made in the U.S. by Kellogg's. But I'm still buying Shreddies, which is made in Niagara Falls, Ontario. Even that's a grey area, since Shreddies is owned by Post, a big...
oftwominds-Charles...
When Markets Misbehave Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
4 months ago
24
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
a month ago
13
a month ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. ...
Mazdak
Meta's Oakley Smart Glasses, TikTok's Revenue Nearly Doubled YouTube's Last Year, Hidden Hashtags on... “What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
2 months ago
Mazdak
Big Tech Ad Boom Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts... Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential...
3 months ago
32
3 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale! I’m watching...
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased Slightly in Q3 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024: The Industry’s Net Income Decreased...
4 months ago
27
4 months ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024: The Industry’s Net Income Decreased From the Prior Quarter, Driven by One-Time Items Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persists the industry reported the largest...
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge 'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
over a year ago
83
over a year ago
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
Commoncog
The Study of Asian Tycoons What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control them?
The Diff
The Nvidia Way is the Regular Way, Just Faster Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese...
4 months ago
51
4 months ago
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese Characteristics
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3 This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
97
a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
Mazdak
Canada Tax Brackets 2025 🇨🇦 As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and...
4 months ago
49
4 months ago
As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and businesses.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Durable Goods Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 weeks ago
27
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which...
The Diff
Finance as a Scale-Invariant Global Computer Plus! The Market; Supply and Demand; The March Continues; ETFs; Intellectual Property
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook I started the...
3 weeks ago
11
3 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook I started the year taking Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s approach to the impact of policy: I’d wait to see what was implemented before changing my outlook. Altos Research put out an updated inventory...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.7% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three...
3 months ago
35
3 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #156 Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century...
a year ago
27
a year ago
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century anarchy, Buffett and Japan, Claude Hopkins, Benjamin Franklin
Mazdak
Jury Delivers Major Blow to Google in Antitrust Case: Play Store Deemed Illegal Monopoly In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury...
a year ago
42
a year ago
In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury has found Google Play guilty of violating antitrust laws in a lawsuit brought by Epic Games. This landmark decision has sent shockwaves through the tech industry and raised questions...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate...
3 months ago
28
3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 201,000 This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The...
3 months ago
32
3 months ago
This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The...
Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
11 months ago
151
11 months ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
89
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Calculated Risk
Comments on February Employment Report The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and...
a month ago
13
a month ago
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased...
3 weeks ago
9
3 weeks ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 5.5% in December; Down 5.0% Year-over-year From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fell 5.5% in December Pending home sales retracted 5.5% in December...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fell 5.5% in December Pending home sales retracted 5.5% in December – following four consecutive months of increases – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month losses in transactions,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #155 Early Retirement, Chris Davis on Berkshire's future, Howard Marks on market cycles, Threads vs....
a year ago
29
a year ago
Early Retirement, Chris Davis on Berkshire's future, Howard Marks on market cycles, Threads vs. Twitter, Costco takes the high road, James Cameron, GEICO in the 1970s
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. The previous three months were...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year (Easter Timing boosted YoY Occupancy) From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March On the positive side of the Easter calendar...
2 weeks ago
7
2 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March On the positive side of the Easter calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported increases across the key performance metrics, according to CoStar’s latest data through 29 March. ... 23-29 March 2025 (percentage change from...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 234 initial claims down from 242 thousand last week. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for January...
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
9 months ago
116
9 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
a month ago
13
a month ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Moon, Welch, Robinhood, Heterodoxy, Bots, Liquidity, Trade, Google
23 hours ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #223 Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected...
5 months ago
49
5 months ago
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Market Prices as Political Predictors, The Three Indias, Semiconductor Progress
Citation Needed
Issue 73 – Degen volunteer fire brigade Terra founder Do Kwon is finally extradited, the CFPB proposes crypto consumer protections, and...
3 months ago
48
3 months ago
Terra founder Do Kwon is finally extradited, the CFPB proposes crypto consumer protections, and Polymarket reaches new lows.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
a month ago
16
a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 February. ... 16-22 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 60.3%...
Citation Needed
Transcript of leaked call with Meteora’s Ben Chow A transcript of a leaked call between DefiTuna’s Moty Povolotski and Meteora’s Ben Chow
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 155,000 in March From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in March; Annual Pay was Up 4.6% “Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of...
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.38% in February From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.38% in February The...
a month ago
10
a month ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.38% in February The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.40% of servicers’...
Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
8 months ago
85
8 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
Citation Needed
I am my own legal department: the promise and peril of “just go independent” Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it...
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January...
oftwominds-Charles...
Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We...
a month ago
21
a month ago
We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We inhabit an Addiction Economy. We all know the cure for addiction is to go Cold Turkey: drop the denial and delusion of control, and excise the source of the addiction from one's...
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
73
a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 — Overview A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
a year ago
Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs! When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
a year ago
69
a year ago
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
over a year ago
Mazdak
Tech Titans: AI Race Heats Up! We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial...
5 months ago
33
5 months ago
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial intelligence.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
15
a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28,...
Mazdak
Why 2024 will be the year of the Delivery Drone? For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia...
a year ago
61
a year ago
For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia where packages pirouette through the air and land at our doorsteps with clockwork precision. But 2024 marks a pivotal juncture, a year where the sci-fi fantasy transforms into a...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom...
a year ago
53
a year ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom Holland and The Path Between the Seas by David McCullough.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #175 Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount...
a year ago
39
a year ago
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount rates, Evolving moats, Jay Gould, Garry Tan, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Steve Ells
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases...
a month ago
18
a month ago
The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, March 11th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the...
The Diff
There is an "AI Factor," and It's Worth Hedging Plus! Sweeteners; The American Difference; AI Experiments; Media Relations; Sanctions are Hard,...
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
2 weeks ago
11
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from...
Mazdak
Google Quantum Computer, OpenAI Sora Video Generator and more ... Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
4 months ago
The Diff
Don't Try to Build Another Berkshire Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody;...
a month ago
23
a month ago
Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody; Unwinding a Bubble
Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2025: The End Game in Business! I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students have been lulled into a false sense of complacency about what's coming, since I have not used a single metric or number in my class yet. In fact, we have spent almost four sessions...
Calculated Risk
February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February,...
a month ago
15
a month ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities,...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tech Right, 10 bits, Smart Screens, AI, Gambling, Memes, Soviet Magic
2 months ago
The Diff
AI Interfaces Engineer Serendipity Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It Sports Betting; Retaliatory Tariffs
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
3 months ago
The Diff
AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk Management; Diff Jobs
Calculated Risk
Comments on January Employment Report The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to...
Mazdak
Decentralization Debate: Unpacking Bluesky's Architecture Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it...
4 months ago
60
4 months ago
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it truly lives up to the hype.
Calculated Risk
Monday Night Futures Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair value).
Citation Needed
Issue 48 – Bitcoin has "no chance" of going to the moon Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023) A life well lived
a year ago
The Diff
Information Economies and Institution Economies Plus! Distribution; Non-Tariff Barriers; Low-Background Text; Application Layer; Socks
6 days ago
Mazdak
TFSA Talk: Unlocking Tax-Free Wealth 🇨🇦 Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
5 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #218 Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles,...
6 months ago
73
6 months ago
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles, Doing what you love, Human aging, Ray Ozzie on intelligent machines, Aesop's Fables
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
a year ago
80
a year ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Seeking Wisdom
From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my...
a year ago
85
a year ago
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Let’s train a model to predict heart disease using sleep and exercise data....
balajis.com
The Network State Conference Come to Amsterdam on October 30 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow • Home price growth is beginning to cool as modestly improved demand is running up against higher levels of inventory across most major...
Calculated Risk
January Employment Report: 143 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance....
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
50
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
a year ago
Mazdak
Minimize Taxes, Maximize Inheritance: A Canadian Guide to Estate Planning with Real Estate For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key...
a year ago
52
a year ago
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key concerns. In this context, real estate, often the largest asset, presents unique challenges and opportunities. While strategies like adding children to titles were once popular,...
Mazdak
5 Must-Read Finance Books for Building Wealth
a year ago
Bits about Money
Deposit franchises as natural hedges Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest...
a year ago
23
a year ago
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest rates. How did we get here?
Mazdak
How to Find Great Stocks That Will Make You Money The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know...
a year ago
24
a year ago
The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know how to find great stocks that will make you money. In this blog post, I will share five key factors to look for when finding great stocks. Factor 1: Strong Revenue Growth
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly" Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed...
The Diff
Are VCs Incentivized to be too Nice for Venture Debt? Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 207,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦 The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
a year ago
38
a year ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
3 weeks ago
9
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
What happens if the US loses reserve currency status? A reserve currency is the currency that people all over the world prefer to store their savings...
11 months ago
8
11 months ago
A reserve currency is the currency that people all over the world prefer to store their savings in. Today that currency is the US dollar. From the Middle East, to Asia, to South America — Whether it's a family that needs to keep some money around just in case or a country, most...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023...
a month ago
15
a month ago
This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023 were: “We've already started the process of where that capacity is coming out.  A lot of it transborder, big drop in Canadian traffic to go into the U.S.”. This could impact hotel occupancy...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Financial Kessler Effect Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a...
a week ago
11
a week ago
Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a high-speed projectile with the potential to disable any other part of the system it impacts. Complex systems can undergo what's known as phase shifts, where the state of the system...
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
84
a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Mazdak
Google & Microsoft $1M donation to Trump inauguration fund, Microsoft job cuts, Amazon ad business... Google, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and even Tim Cook are each donating $1M to President-elect Trump’s...
3 months ago
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖 In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
82
a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some clues that are worth considering.
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦 Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
a year ago
110
a year ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
Moneyness
Pricing the anonymity of banknotes Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a standard set of payments...
5 months ago
8
5 months ago
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a standard set of payments services, they also offer financial anonymity. This post introduces the idea of trying to price the anonymity component.  To help think about why we might want to price anonymous...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increases to 54.1% in December (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.1%, up from 52.1% last month. The...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.1%, up from 52.1% last month. The employment index decreased to 51.4%, from 51.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 54.1% December 2024 Services ISM® Report On...
balajis.com
The Mirrortable Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
over a year ago
25
over a year ago
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
5 months ago
Mazdak
The 7 Steps to Becoming a Top Investor Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going...
a year ago
26
a year ago
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going to share with you the seven steps that I believe are essential for becoming a top investor. Step 1: Develop a Clear Investment Philosophy The first step to becoming a great...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.5% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 6.9...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #162 Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform,...
a year ago
27
a year ago
Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform, Keeping a notebook, Singleton and Teledyne, The pros and cons of cancer screening
Mazdak
The 5-Step Blueprint to Achieve Financial Independence Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have to work for money, but because you want to.
The Diff
The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.2% YoY as...
2 months ago
41
2 months ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.2% YoY as of January 2025, down from 4.4% YoY in December. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in January: Visitor Traffic Down 1.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Up YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Las Vegas started...
a month ago
16
a month ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Las Vegas started the year with January visitation of approx. 3.34M visitors, down 1.1% from last January. as Vegas convention attendance reached roughly 629k in January, up 12.8% YoY, supported in...
The Diff
What moves the Efficient Frontier Between PE and SaaS for Improving Small Companies' Financial... Plus! Reindustrialization as a Financial Engineering Problem; How the Tariffs Happened; Meanwhile,...
2 weeks ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #211 Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist...
8 months ago
75
8 months ago
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist investing, Perils of forecasting, Orwell's 1984, Guy Spier, Ben Thompson, Estée Lauder
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
4 months ago
36
4 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up from 1.311 million SAAR. Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up...
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
4 months ago
7
4 months ago
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned. I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
Mazdak
Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of...
a month ago
19
a month ago
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of Ocelot, its first quantum chip, developed in collaboration with Caltech.
The Rational Walk
Endurance The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
a year ago
89
a year ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
4 months ago
42
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
4 days ago
3
4 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 8.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 11,...
Calculated Risk
AIA: "Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI February 2025: Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.5 for the month,...
Calculated Risk
Initial Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2% Range From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate at +2.3%. We launched our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate at +2.3%, in line with the advance reading. [Jan 31st estimate] emphasis...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
4 months ago
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual...
11 months ago
85
11 months ago
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual meeting after Charlie Munger's death.
The Rational Walk
Herodotus Herodotus is often described as the father of history for his narrative of the Greco-Persian Wars of...
9 months ago
58
9 months ago
Herodotus is often described as the father of history for his narrative of the Greco-Persian Wars of the fifth century BC.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Amazon’s Pricing Policies Promote Inflation The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when...
a year ago
8
a year ago
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when 20 states joined the US Department of Justice to sue Microsoft. These cases revolve around whether consumers are harmed by the company’s actions. The case against Amazon focuses...
Farnam Street
Let Go of the Learning Baggage We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it...
over a year ago
62
over a year ago
We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it when needed. More knowledge means better instincts; better insights into opportunities for both you and your organization. You will ultimately produce better work if you give...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.3% in March From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased...
4 days ago
5
4 days ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3 percent in March but increased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent in the first quarter. The March decline was led by a 5.8 percent drop in the index for utilities, as temperatures...
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
a year ago
45
a year ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
Moneyness
Renovatio monetae This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
11 months ago
8
11 months ago
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
Citation Needed
Issue 51 – It's quiet... too quiet It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in February The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
a week ago
6
a week ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down slightly unrounded from 3.5% YoY in February), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0% (down from 3.1%), and the CPI less food...
balajis.com
Network School 2025 Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
2 months ago
Moneyness
How should money laundering laws apply to DeFi? Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them? DeFi,...
7 months ago
7
7 months ago
Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them? DeFi, or decentralized finance, is an emerging segment of the broader financial industry that delivers traditional financial services, say like trading or lending, using a novel type of...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
4 weeks ago
12
4 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal...
Moneyness
Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use...
2 weeks ago
17
2 weeks ago
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use decentralized databases like Ethereum and Tron to run their platforms. Secondly, and more important for the purposes of this article, they grant access to almost anyone, no questions...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
a year ago
Mazdak
Inflation finally chills out! Americans rejoice & recession whispers fade as prices dip and spending... The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first...
a year ago
42
a year ago
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first decline since way back in 2020! This ain't no mirage, folks - inflation is cooling down, and the Fed's fight against skyrocketing prices is showing real results!
Mazdak
Google Releases Gemini 2.0 Flash Google is making bold moves in the AI space with the release of Gemini 2.0, a series of advanced AI...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Google is making bold moves in the AI space with the release of Gemini 2.0, a series of advanced AI models designed to challenge industry leaders like OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, and Anthropic.
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
a year ago
92
a year ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in retail sales.  Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for...
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
11 months ago
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
a year ago
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2021; Year in Review I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We...
over a year ago
8
over a year ago
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We did $8.8 million in sales in 2021. This article is going to tell you what it was like to run this business in 2021 vs. 2020, amidst threats like the Amazon aggregators, supply chain...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #170 The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's...
a year ago
60
a year ago
The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's advice to his son, Impact of GLP-1 agonists, Tesla's IPO, Conference call transcripts, and more ...
Moneyness
Here’s why we tolerate fake check scams Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad...
3 months ago
12
3 months ago
Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad experiences with banks. Here’s a recent example. In November 2024, a charity inadvertently accepted a fake check from a would-be donor. The charity's bank allowed the charity to deposit...
The Diff
Credentialism and the Money Illusion Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and Downside of Ads; Backcasting Returns
Musings on Markets
Dealing with Aging: Updating the Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stories! A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that...
7 months ago
9
7 months ago
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they  have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that...
Commoncog
Focus on the Cases Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
76
over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
a year ago
143
a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas November 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 0.6% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 8.4% From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Punctuated by the...
3 months ago
31
3 months ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Punctuated by the second annual F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix and the SEMA tradeshow, Las Vegas hosted more than 3.3M visitors in November, slightly up over last year (+0.6% YoY). convention attendance was...
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.47% in December From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.50% of servicers’...
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
over a year ago
93
over a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
The Rational Walk
Pilot’s Founders vs. Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a...
a year ago
35
a year ago
Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a dispute over the valuation of their remaining 20% interest.
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
97
a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Tax Benefits of Self-Employment Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth...
a month ago
25
a month ago
Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth understanding if you're exploring self-employment. It's tax preparation time, the secular equivalent of crawling around the temple on cobblestones littered with broken glass....
Mazdak
Playing it Safe Paid Off in 2023, But Now It's Time to Take More Risk with Your Money 2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed...
a year ago
35
a year ago
2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed returns of cash and cash-like investments. This was largely driven by the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, which boosted the yields of money-market funds and similar...
Citation Needed
Trump’s Project 2025 ghostwriters Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked...
2 months ago
33
2 months ago
Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked Trump devotees are writing policies at federal agencies.
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
a year ago
122
a year ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 4.1% Annual Gain in January 2025 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
4 months ago
30
4 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 5.8, down from 31.2. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value). WTI futures at $71.12 per...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 7,...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Faces Lawsuit Over Alleged Data Use for AI Training In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn,...
2 months ago
38
2 months ago
In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn, Microsoft’s business-focused social media platform, is at the center of the latest debate.
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in February From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during February 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,195.8 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised January estimate of $2,179.9 billion. The February figure...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Higher inflation and slower growth" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the...
4 days ago
4
4 days ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Those policies are still evolving, and their effects...
Commoncog
Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators?...
a month ago
23
a month ago
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators? We examine the career of one activist investor, to see what that tells us about the Asian tycoons we’ve been studying.
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance) Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
9 months ago
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for...
Seeking Wisdom
A great investor is a great rejector I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for...
11 months ago
146
11 months ago
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of...
a month ago
18
a month ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries “The Fed’s balance sheet runoff increases the supply of Treasuries. It’s easier for me to extend duration when I’m not competing with another big seller.” This statement...
Seeking Wisdom
Books I loved reading in 2022
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 48 and DOW futures are down 294 (fair value). WTI futures at $67.04 per barrel and Brent at $70.36 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $84 - so WTI oil prices...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 6% in January From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI),...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 5.6% in January to 225.7 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 213.6. Over the month, commercial planning increased 4.2% while...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans...
4 weeks ago
15
4 weeks ago
From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans International travel to the United States is expected to slide by 5 percent this year, contributing to a $64 billion shortfall for the travel industry, according to Tourism Economics. The...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
a month ago
19
a month ago
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
6 months ago
71
6 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #215 Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
7 months ago
81
7 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Plague, Manufacturing, FX, Agents, Trump, Surface Area, AI
2 weeks ago
Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
7 months ago
94
7 months ago
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2025: The Party Continued (for US Equities) In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years,...
3 months ago
12
3 months ago
In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025. That rise was driven by a surge in US equity...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds are once again paying attention to weakness in stocks--it just happened to take a bigger drop in stocks that we saw last week. Despite the improvement in rates, we would still...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in February From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
a month ago
11
a month ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in February after moving up 0.3 percent in January. Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent, boosted by a jump of 8.5 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The...
oftwominds-Charles...
Automation Institutionalizes Mediocrity Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as algorithmically-driven under-competence and mediocrity are now the norm. When deployed by monopolies / cartels, automation institutionalizes mediocrity, and soon everyone forgets...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 143,000, down from 146,000 jobs added in...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1% From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4%...
4 months ago
31
4 months ago
From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model...
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Flat" in November; Multi-family Billings Turn Slightly Positive Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
4 months ago
40
4 months ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI November 2024: Architecture firm billings remain flat Despite the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score dipping slightly below 50 for the month, it remains close...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.2% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 days ago
3
3 days ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
Musings on Markets
Breaking up Big Tech: Cui Bono? In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was...
6 months ago
8
6 months ago
In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was considering a break-up of Alphabet, with the addendum that it would also be pushing for the company to share the data it collects across its multiple platforms with competitors....
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
12 months ago
136
12 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
The Diff
Central Banks and the Guidance Paradox Plus! Crowded Trades; CoreWeave; The Bots; Accounting; Political Meme Stocks
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM Services From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond...
3 months ago
35
3 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where they left off before the X-mas/New Year holiday weeks. ... Although the past 2...
The Diff
Why do Stocks Only go up at Night? Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil Companies Want?
Citation Needed
We can have a different web Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
11 months ago
109
11 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all! If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
2 months ago
15
2 months ago
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
Mazdak
5 best investments during high interest rates Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When...
a year ago
33
a year ago
Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds declines, and stocks can become more volatile. However, there are still a number of investments that can perform well in a high interest...
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
3 months ago
33
3 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,501,000. This is 11.2 percent above the revised January estimate of 1,350,000, but is 2.9 percent below the February 2024 rate of 1,546,000. Single-family housing...
Citation Needed
When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue? I don’t believe that it has.
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in November Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP)...
4 months ago
32
4 months ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) moved down 0.1 percent in November after declining 0.4 percent in October. In November, manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent, boosted by a 3.5 percent increase in the index for motor...
The Diff
eToro: Twitch Plays the Market Plus! OpenAI; Open AI; Supply Chains and Self-Tariffing; Surface Area; Secrets
2 weeks ago
Moneyness
Stablecoins – a digital version of Swiss bearer savings books Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and...
8 months ago
8
8 months ago
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and open an account without showing any ID. The bank would then issue you something called a bearer savings book, otherwise known as inhabersparheften or livrets d'épargne au porteur....
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.2% in November; Up 6.9% Year-over-year From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of Increases Pending home sales gained 2.2% in November – the fourth consecutive month of increases and the highest level since February 2023 – according to the National Association of REALTORS®....
Calculated Risk
U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2024 Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age...
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group.  Those people are now in the 30 to 34 cohort. This month the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2024 by age, and I've updated the table from the...
Citation Needed
Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
6 months ago
Mazdak
Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the...
a year ago
82
a year ago
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the table! This dramatic pivot throws a spotlight on the tightening grip of global regulators on tech mergers, leaving investors and industry players to wonder:
The Diff
Amazon Wants AI Models Commoditized. Can They Make it Happen? Plus! Business and Editorial; The Other AI Growth Story; Getting Ahead of the Shift; Activist Shorts
a month ago
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in...
Citation Needed
Issue 55 – Halving a bad time The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed...
a year ago
107
a year ago
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed fraud and Uniswap got a Wells notice.
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 2.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Unchanged YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Closing out the...
2 months ago
31
2 months ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Closing out the year with Dec visitation of 3.4M visitors (+0.2% YoY), Las Vegas hosted approx. 41.7M visitors for the year, up 2.1% from last year’s 40.8M visitors. emphasis added Click on graph...
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
a year ago
124
a year ago
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, New Home Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
3 weeks ago
11
3 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The average mortgage lender raised rates modestly on Monday morning--a logical move considering the weakness in the bond market over the weekend. Rates are based directly on bonds. Bond...
Mazdak
Microsoft Unveils Majorana 1: A Quantum Leap Towards the Future After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum...
a month ago
27
a month ago
After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum processor—Majorana 1. This breakthrough has the potential to redefine the future of computing, promising industrial-scale problem-solving and scientific discovery at an unprecedented level.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28,...
Calculated Risk
February 14th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Moving Sideways Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
58
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did." Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
10 months ago
8
10 months ago
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial...
Moneyness
Memecoins are the point Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins. Our story begins with some very...
5 months ago
9
5 months ago
Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins. Our story begins with some very smart and idealistic developers, known as cypherpunks, creating a new technology know as a blockchain. Blockchains are databases, but decentralized. Advertised as being...
The Rational Walk
Will Progressive’s Growth Strategy Pay Off? The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter...
a year ago
24
a year ago
The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter due to catastrophe losses and inadequate pricing.
Mazdak
Who Should You Ask for Feedback? Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new...
a year ago
30
a year ago
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new ideas, and stay ahead of the competition. But not all feedback is created equal. If you want to get the most out of feedback, you need to ask the right people.
balajis.com
#3 - The President of Palau Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is...
over a year ago
28
over a year ago
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is becoming a digital leader, experimenting with everything from on-chain identity to drone delivery. Despite having less than 20,000 citizens, Palau is a full UN member state. Its path to...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
a year ago
102
a year ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
Mazdak
The Latest in Smartglasses Tech From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of...
5 months ago
48
5 months ago
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of smartglasses is heating up!
Mazdak
The Future of Healthcare: Your AI Health Pod is Here! 🩺 Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and...
a year ago
42
a year ago
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and hello to the CarePod, your self-contained doctor's office powered by artificial intelligence. Imagine: Stepping into a futuristic pod at your local mall, gym, or even office...
Bits about Money
Requiem for a bank loan A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse...
a year ago
33
a year ago
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse on the banking crisis.
The Diff
What Would a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Actually Do? Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State:...
4 months ago
23
4 months ago
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State: Beauty Filters Edition
Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024 Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
8 months ago
92
8 months ago
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches o3-mini: A Faster, More Affordable AI Reasoning Model OpenAI has just unveiled o3-mini, the latest addition to its "reasoning" model family.
2 months ago
Commoncog
The Story of Samsung How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s economy.
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
a year ago
66
a year ago
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Archiving, Externalities, OpenAI, 2024, Abundance, Hiring, The Dollar
4 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: New Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is that new home sales decreased to 678 thousand SAAR, down from 698 thousand in December.
The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
a year ago
82
a year ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
Citation Needed
Big publishers think libraries are the enemy The recent Second Circuit decision in Hachette v. Internet Archive is only the latest battle in the...
7 months ago
65
7 months ago
The recent Second Circuit decision in Hachette v. Internet Archive is only the latest battle in the war on libraries and the freedom to read.
Mazdak
The Future of TikTok in the U.S.: What Happens on January 19? The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
3 months ago
Citation Needed
“Wait, not like that”: Free and open access in the age of generative AI The real threat isn’t AI using open knowledge — it’s AI companies killing the projects that make...
a month ago
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
a year ago
135
a year ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
11 months ago
106
11 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
Commoncog
Eric Nehrlich on the Art of Executive Coaching and Forecasting Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting...
a year ago
28
a year ago
Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting from 10-20% down to 0.5%, his approach to executive coaching, and how to come up with small experiments for personal growth.
Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty" in March The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39,...
a month ago
10
a month ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, down from 42 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty Economic...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050 By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the...
a month ago
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low" From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in...
a month ago
16
a month ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with the most significant drop in the South...
Citation Needed
No, Trump didn’t make $50 billion from his memecoin Journalists’ flawed math and ignorance of crypto markets turn tokens into fake fortunes
3 months ago
Citation Needed
Businessweek: Crypto Got What It Wanted in November’s Election. Now What? The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the...
4 months ago
The Diff
General-Purpose Technologies Revalue Natural Resources Plus! Meme Coins; Fees; Platforms; Opportunistic Offers; Private Accounting Fraud
2 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
a year ago
94
a year ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.