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The Diff
Running an Oil Major in a Not-Post-Hydrocarbon-Any-Time-Soon World Plus! Corporate VC; Hacking AI Moderation; Product Parity; Crypto Regulation; GPU Demand
5 months ago
Mazdak
Unplugging Australia: Kids vs. Social Media Australia is going offline!
9 months ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
6 months ago
50
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for...
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February; Multi-Family... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
5 months ago
46
5 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.61%, unchanged from 0.61% January. Freddie's rate is up...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
a year ago
127
a year ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1% From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to...
5 months ago
31
5 months ago
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 27th...
The Diff
Deals and Hype Trades Plus! AI Models and Comparative Advantage; Proprietary Data; AI and Incentives; The Neoteny...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
Plus! AI Models and Comparative Advantage; Proprietary Data; AI and Incentives; The Neoteny Business; Substitution
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
over a year ago
44
over a year ago
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #219 Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam...
10 months ago
86
10 months ago
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam Zell, UK Bargains, Gregorys Coffee, Free Speech Under Assault, Dopamine and Addiction
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was...
4 months ago
24
4 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. Last week was also notable for ranking among the more...
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
a year ago
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
10 months ago
Calculated Risk
March Employment Report: 228 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and...
4 months ago
33
4 months ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in...
Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns" in February The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42,...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42, down from 47 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Canvas Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs...
a year ago
64
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs of putting down his paintbrush anytime soon.
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate; "Uncertainty Increased" Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. maintain the target range for the federal...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: "The process [of reaching inflation target] could take longer than previously... From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt: With...
7 months ago
39
7 months ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on...
The Diff
General-Purpose Technologies Revalue Natural Resources Plus! Meme Coins; Fees; Platforms; Opportunistic Offers; Private Accounting Fraud
7 months ago
The Diff
"Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question Plus! Solve for X + X; Refactoring; AI and Distribution; How Models Think; The AI Business Model
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate...
4 months ago
50
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Q1 Moody’s CRE Preliminary Trend Analysis The national multifamily market has...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 10% YoY in December This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
7 months ago
51
7 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #163 Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's...
a year ago
38
a year ago
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's future, Nvidia, AI, Interpreting medical studies, Why Doomberg left Twitter, Jimmy Buffett, and more...
The Diff
The Bid/Ask Spread for Top Talent Plus! De Minimis; ARR; Jurisdictions; Forward-Deployed Engineers; Software and Hardware; Diff Jobs
6 months ago
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
a year ago
151
a year ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
a year ago
138
a year ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
a year ago
127
a year ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
FIRE v London
Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the...
10 months ago
90
10 months ago
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the Solent. I made it to the Labour party conference in Liverpool, which was fascinating albeit wet. I am apparently firmly in the tax-raising sights of the Government, but I wasn’t the...
Calculated Risk
Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024 From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades...
8 months ago
60
8 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. As the nation’s...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit decreased to $122.7 Billion in February The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
4 months ago
34
4 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $122.7 billion in February, down $8.0 billion from $130.7 billion in January, revised. . ...
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023! I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
a year ago
20
a year ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
The Rational Walk
Free Articles! All articles older than six months are now free to read.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 201,000 This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The...
7 months ago
45
7 months ago
This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
7 months ago
38
7 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 33.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 10, 2025....
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
6 months ago
39
6 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the...
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 10% in December From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index...
7 months ago
35
7 months ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 10.2% in December to 212.0 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 192.3. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.2%...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate...
7 months ago
31
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. The previous three months were...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
6 months ago
37
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in December Wholesale...
7 months ago
40
7 months ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in December Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in December compared to November. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 204.8, an increase...
Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
a year ago
137
a year ago
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160 Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
over a year ago
46
over a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven Every analytics project consists of two parts. The technical part, and then the 'get the...
over a year ago
63
over a year ago
Every analytics project consists of two parts. The technical part, and then the 'get the organisation on board' part. We talk about why the latter is the real challenge.
Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
over a year ago
122
over a year ago
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average...
7 months ago
47
7 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.6% Annual Gain in October 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
a year ago
134
a year ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
Mazdak
Unlock the Power of Persuasion: The 4-Part Key to Getting What You Want Imagine having just one skill that could propel your business to unprecedented success.
9 months ago
Moneyness
The magnificent Swiss 10-centime coin The Swiss 10-centime coin has a lot to teach us about monetary economics. On its face, the Swiss...
10 months ago
19
10 months ago
The Swiss 10-centime coin has a lot to teach us about monetary economics. On its face, the Swiss 10-centime (rappen in German) looks like a pretty unremarkable coin. It's the second-lowest value Swiss coin, the Swiss version of America's lowly nickel, the sort of coin that many...
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights! Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
10 months ago
105
10 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal Accused of Incorrect Accounting Daily Journal has been accused of incorrectly accounting for software development costs by an...
4 weeks ago
20
4 weeks ago
Daily Journal has been accused of incorrectly accounting for software development costs by an activist investor seeking a consulting contract.
The Rational Walk
The Theban Plays The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot...
11 months ago
105
11 months ago
The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot has captivated audiences for nearly 2,500 years.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
6 months ago
28
6 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 216 thousand from 213 thousand last week. manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a...