The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. The data released so far suggests the PCE inflation will be soft in March. The producer price index (PPI), the PPI excluding food and energy, and the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade were all below consensus expectations in March. The components relevant for core PCE were soft. Based on the details in the PPI and CPI reports, we estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.08% in March (vs. our expectation of 0.13% before today's PPI report), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.52%. And from BofA: [W]e are tracking core PCE to rise by 0.1% m/m (0.08% unrounded) in March. This would be a notable deceleration from the first two months of the year. However, February is likely to be revised up significantly to 0.5% m/m due to a very large upward revision to portfolio management. As a result, we expect y/y core PCE to fall to 2.6% from an upwardly revised 2.9%. This is further improvement progress on inflation.  If policy had remained unchanged, we'd probably be celebrating a "soft landing".  However, the tariffs will likely impact prices in May (the data will be released in June).

Tract, Brains, 9/11, Diplomacy, Credit Cards, Crashes, 2024

The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 15th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of -10.0, up from -20.0. ----- Wednesday, April 16th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. 8:30 AM: Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in retail sales.  9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March. NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 37, down from 29.  Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. ----- Thursday, April 17th ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for March. Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 6.7, down from 12.5. ----- Friday, April 18th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2025

What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front over the last few weeks, seems a bit pointless. We entered March with a lot of drama about Ukraine, and some notable ‘ceasefire’ activity on the diplomatic front. We finished March waiting for ‘liberation day’, April 2nd,… Continue reading Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs →

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels.   Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 30.3% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending April 5, 2025 • Active inventory climbed 30.3% from a year ago • New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 8.6% • The median list price increased 0.1% year over year Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.  Inventory was up year-over-year for the 74th consecutive week.   New listings have increased but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels. Median prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year.