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When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by storm when it was launched last November.…
a year ago

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It’s a treasure trove of health insights!

Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance event led to all complex life, including plants, animals, and us. This microscopic accident is…

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Focus on the process, not the outcome

Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will still point out if he got cut or driven off…

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9 months ago 115 votes
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem

IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is 0.513 or 0.00012. Unsurprisingly, the odds of seeing…

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A great investor is a great rejector

I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin gave me deeper insights on how base rates, sensitivity, and…

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16 hours ago 2 votes
Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025

The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, February 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. ----- Tuesday, February 25th ----- 9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for December 2024. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. 9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December. Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. ----- Wednesday, February 26th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is that new home sales increased to 678 thousand SAAR, down from 698 thousand in December. ----- Thursday, February 27th ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 225 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.3% annualized in Q4, unchanged from the advance estimate of 2.3%. Durable Goods Orders for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.8% increase in durable goods orders. Pending Home Sales Index for January. The consensus is for a 1.2% decrease in the index. Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for February. ----- Friday, February 28th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.6% YoY. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for February.

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8 hours ago 2 votes
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2 days ago 5 votes