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Essays - Benedict Evans

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AI, tools and transformation It’s very tempting to imagine that AI turns everyone into a tool-builder - now everyone can just...
3rd Sep 2026
1

AI, tools and transformation

from Essays - Benedict Evans [alt+shift+b] in startups

3rd Sep 2026
It’s very tempting to imagine that AI turns everyone into a tool-builder - now everyone can just ask the model to make the software they need, and apps as we know them are dead. I think that misunderstands how most people think and where software actually comes from, and...
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Ways to think about token pricing AI is in a supply crunch today, but what happens when we come out of it? How and where will...
9th Jul 2026
1

Ways to think about token pricing

from Essays - Benedict Evans [alt+shift+b] in startups

9th Jul 2026
AI is in a supply crunch today, but what happens when we come out of it? How and where will supply, demand, price, capacity and capex get back into equilibrium? Today, model labs can name their price, but why won’t they end up as low-margin commodity infrastructure?
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Predicting AI job exposure Many people would like to analyse which jobs, companies and industries are most exposed to AI, and...
24th May 2026
1

Predicting AI job exposure

from Essays - Benedict Evans [alt+shift+b] in startups

24th May 2026
Many people would like to analyse which jobs, companies and industries are most exposed to AI, and assign scores, build charts, and map that against the progress of LLMs. I think this is mostly impossible: you don’t know how the jobs will change, you don’t know what else...
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How will OpenAI compete? OpenAI has some big questions. It doesn’t have unique tech. It has a big user base, but with...
19th Feb 2026
1

How will OpenAI compete?

from Essays - Benedict Evans [alt+shift+b] in startups

19th Feb 2026
OpenAI has some big questions. It doesn’t have unique tech. It has a big user base, but with limited engagement and stickiness and no network effect. The incumbents have matched the tech and are leveraging their product and distribution. And a lot of the value and leverage...
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AI, networks and Mechanical Turks How far do LLMs give us a step change in how good a search and recommendation system can be? Do...
23rd Nov 2025
1

AI, networks and Mechanical Turks

from Essays - Benedict Evans [alt+shift+b] in startups

23rd Nov 2025
How far do LLMs give us a step change in how good a search and recommendation system can be? Do they let you build one without needing a vast user base of your own?
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AI’s metrics question With every platform shift, we want to measure the growth but we’re confused about what to measure....
9th Jun 2025
53

AI’s metrics question

from Essays - Benedict Evans [alt+shift+b] in startups

9th Jun 2025
With every platform shift, we want to measure the growth but we’re confused about what to measure. That’s partly a problem of data and definitions, but it’s really a question about what this is going to be.
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GenAI’s adoption puzzle Generative AI chatbots might be a life-changing transformation in the nature of computing, that...
25th May 2025
69

GenAI’s adoption puzzle

from Essays - Benedict Evans [alt+shift+b] in startups

25th May 2025
Generative AI chatbots might be a life-changing transformation in the nature of computing, that can replace all software, but so far, most of its users only pick it up every week or two, and far fewer have made it part of their lives. Is that a time problem or a product...
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What kind of disruption? Software ate the world. Uber and Airbnb didn’t sell software - they disrupted and redefined...
14th Mar 2025
69

What kind of disruption?

from Essays - Benedict Evans [alt+shift+b] in startups

14th Mar 2025
Software ate the world. Uber and Airbnb didn’t sell software - they disrupted and redefined markets. But what kind of disruption are we talking about ?
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The Deep Research problem OpenAI’s Deep Research is built for me, and I can’t use it. It’s another amazing demo, until it...
18th Feb 2025
76

The Deep Research problem

from Essays - Benedict Evans [alt+shift+b] in startups

18th Feb 2025
OpenAI’s Deep Research is built for me, and I can’t use it. It’s another amazing demo, until it breaks. But it breaks in really interesting ways.
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Are better models better? Every week there’s a better AI model that gives better answers. But a lot of questions don’t have...
22nd Jan 2025
88

Are better models better?

from Essays - Benedict Evans [alt+shift+b] in startups

22nd Jan 2025
Every week there’s a better AI model that gives better answers. But a lot of questions don’t have better answers, only ‘right’ answers, and these models can’t do that. So what does ‘better’ mean, how do we manage these things, and should we change what we expect from...
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