This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2025, including The Lessons of History, American Journey, the works of Aristophanes, Plato, Xenophon, and more.

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 150k in March, slightly above consensus ... We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.1%. emphasis added From BofA: Nonfarm payrolls are likely to increase by a robust 185k in March, higher than consensus expectations of 135k, due to payback in leisure & hospitality for cold weather in Jan and Feb. Government job growth is expected to come in at just 10k due to the federal hiring freeze/DOGE. Given the muted claims data in the survey week, we do not expect DOGE driven job cuts to be a sizable drag, although risks are to the downside. We expect the u rate to remain at 4.1%. • ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 155,000 private sector jobs were added in March.  This was above consensus forecasts and suggests job gains above consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report. ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index decreased to 44.7%, down from 47.6% the previous month.   This would suggest about 50,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 21,000 manufacturing jobs added in March. ISM® services employment index decreased to 46.2%, from 53.5%. This would suggest 30,000 jobs lost in the service sector. Combined this suggests 80,000 jobs added, well below consensus expectations.  (Note: The ISM surveys have been way off recently) Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed about the same initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 225,000 in March compared to 224,000 in February.  This suggests layoffs in March were about the same as in February. • Conclusion: Over the last year, employment gains averaged 155 thousand per month - and that is probably the current trend.  It seems early for the government related layoffs to significantly impact employment.  Also, although the ISM employment indexes were weak this month, my guess is headline employment gains will be above consensus in March.

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From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined. employment in January and February combined is 48,000 lower than previously reported. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Total payrolls increased by 228 thousand in March.  Private payrolls increased by 209 thousand, and public payrolls increased 19 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 4 thousand). Payrolls for January and February were revised down by 48 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.5% in March, from 62.4% in February. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. I'll have more later ...

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