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Probably Overthinking It

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New Book! I am working on a new book called You Would Choose Now: Measuring America’s Progress Toward Fairness...
4 weeks ago
2

New Book!

from Probably Overthinking It [alt+shift+b] in science

4 weeks ago
I am working on a new book called You Would Choose Now: Measuring America’s Progress Toward Fairness and Tolerance. It’s a data-driven exploration of progress (or not) in public opinion and civil rights. I posted the first two chapters as an Early Access edition on LeanPub (a...
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Think Java, but interactive The online version of Think Java now features interactive widgets that run the code examples in the...
22nd Aug 2026
1

Think Java, but interactive

from Probably Overthinking It [alt+shift+b] in science

22nd Aug 2026
The online version of Think Java now features interactive widgets that run the code examples in the browser. For readers, it means you can try out the examples, modify them, and test your code. And for us it means we can publish an interactive version of the book without...
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The Frog Puzzle Here’s a probability puzzle from a TED-Ed video called Can you solve the frog riddle? by Derek...
4th Jun 2026
1

The Frog Puzzle

from Probably Overthinking It [alt+shift+b] in science

4th Jun 2026
Here’s a probability puzzle from a TED-Ed video called Can you solve the frog riddle? by Derek Abbott. It came up recently in this Reddit thread: You’re stranded in a rainforest after accidentally eating a poisonous mushroom. To survive the poison, you need to lick a certain...
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Planning for your midlife crisis Yesterday I presented a talk at ODSC East 2026, called “Counterfactual Analysis with Bayesian...
1st May 2026
3

Planning for your midlife crisis

from Probably Overthinking It [alt+shift+b] in science

1st May 2026
Yesterday I presented a talk at ODSC East 2026, called “Counterfactual Analysis with Bayesian Models: What Drives the Life Expectancy Gap?” Here’s the abstract Across nearly every country in the world, women live longer than men—but the size of this gap varies from about two...
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Trust and Well-Being In a previous article, I claimed that Young adults are not very happy. Now the World Happiness...
3rd Apr 2026
1

Trust and Well-Being

from Probably Overthinking It [alt+shift+b] in science

3rd Apr 2026
In a previous article, I claimed that Young adults are not very happy. Now the World Happiness Report 2026 has confirmed that young people in North America and Western Europe are less happy than they were fifteen years ago, and less happy than previous generations. In this...
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Young Adults Are Not Very Happy Since 1972, the General Social Survey has asked respondents: “Taken all together, how would you say...
19th Mar 2026
1

Young Adults Are Not Very Happy

from Probably Overthinking It [alt+shift+b] in science

19th Mar 2026
Since 1972, the General Social Survey has asked respondents: “Taken all together, how would you say things are these days—would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?” The following figure shows how the responses have changed over time and between birth...
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Don’t Bet on the Super Bowl If you have studied probability, you might be familiar with fractional odds, which represent the...
8th Feb 2026
2

Don’t Bet on the Super Bowl

from Probably Overthinking It [alt+shift+b] in science

8th Feb 2026
If you have studied probability, you might be familiar with fractional odds, which represent the ratio of the probability something happens to the probability it doesn’t. For example, if the Seahawks have a 75% chance of winning the Super Bowl, they have a 25% chance of losing,...
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Bayesian Decision Analysis At PyData Global 2025 I presented a workshop on Bayesian Decision Analysis with PyMC. The video is...
9th Jan 2026
1

Bayesian Decision Analysis

from Probably Overthinking It [alt+shift+b] in science

9th Jan 2026
At PyData Global 2025 I presented a workshop on Bayesian Decision Analysis with PyMC. The video is available now. This workshop is based on the first session of the Applied Bayesian Modeling Workshop I teach along with my colleagues at PyMC Labs. If you would like to learn more,...
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The Lost Chapter I’m happy to report that Probably Overthinking It is available now in paperback. If you would like a...
4th Dec 2025
1

The Lost Chapter

from Probably Overthinking It [alt+shift+b] in science

4th Dec 2025
I’m happy to report that Probably Overthinking It is available now in paperback. If you would like a copy, you can order from Bookshop.org and Amazon (affiliate links). To celebrate, I’m publishing The Lost Chapter — that is, the chapter I cut from the published book. It’s about...
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Think DSP second edition I have started work on a second edition of Think DSP! You can see the current draft here. I started...
4th Nov 2025
13

Think DSP second edition

from Probably Overthinking It [alt+shift+b] in science

4th Nov 2025
I have started work on a second edition of Think DSP! You can see the current draft here. I started this project in part because of this announcement: Once in a while, a few of the Scicloj friends will meet to learn about signal processing, following the Think DSP book by Allen...
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