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In our note “Kelly Can’t Fail” we shared the “Next Card Bet” game as described in Peter Winkler’s Mathematical Puzzles. Our observation is the amazing zero variance strategy shown is in fact the Kelly criteria. Which means, this is a surprising situation where the Kelly strategy is zero variance. This […]
6 months ago

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More from Win Vector LLC

How About Pi ~ 31/32?

At a quick glance: 32 is greater than 10. 31/32 is about 0.96875, not near pi ~ 3.141593. 31/10 = 3.1 is a worse approximation of pi than 22/7 ~ 3.142857.

2 months ago 24 votes
Don’t Let a Data Leak Sink Your Project

One of the bigger risks of iterative statistical or machine learning fitting procedures is over-fit or the dreaded data leak. Over-fit is when: a model performs better on training data than on future data. Some degree of over-fit is expected. A data leak is when: the model learns things about […]

2 months ago 23 votes
Working Through A Trivial Algorithm Whose Analysis Isn’t

I have a new “crazy theorists” article up: “Working Through A Trivial Algorithm Whose Analysis Isn’t.” It is my notes on reading through Jonassen and Knuth’s amazing 1978 article analyzing 2 to 3 node search trees. You would think there couldn’t be a lot to that. But there is! I […]

2 months ago 20 votes
Demonstrating Kelly Betting with Chips

I have a new video demonstrating the Kelly Can’t Fail betting strategy. The idea is: this is a classroom appropriate tool for discussing allocating assets in the presence of risk. The usual Kelly betting on coin-flips is too high variance to expect successful classroom demonstrations. However, the zero variance card […]

3 months ago 35 votes
Is There a Difference Between Calculation and Computation?

Recently I’ve been producing (for my own amusement) example Curta calculations. One motivation was arguing if a proposed solution method for Dudeney’s digits problem was something that could in fact have been easily executed in 1924. This got me thinking, is there an actual difference between calculation and computation? In […]

3 months ago 40 votes

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