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Choose by Probability, not by Expectation A lot of financial thinking and intuition attempts to phrase decisions and choices in terms of...
4th Aug 2026
1

Choose by Probability, not by Expectation

from Win Vector LLC [alt+shift+b] in AI

4th Aug 2026
A lot of financial thinking and intuition attempts to phrase decisions and choices in terms of claimed returns or in terms of expected values. For example: An ultra greedy gambler may pick the highest claimed winning payoff, independent of win or success probabilities. A greedy...
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Maybe Jacobian Conjecture Counterexamples are not Rare The (now falsified) Jacobian conjecture was a well known conjecture expressing the hope that a...
23rd Jul 2026
1

Maybe Jacobian Conjecture Counterexamples are not Rare

from Win Vector LLC [alt+shift+b] in AI

23rd Jul 2026
The (now falsified) Jacobian conjecture was a well known conjecture expressing the hope that a family of functions had nice properties. In July 2026 Levent Alpöge exhibited a simple counter-example that he said was found by Claude Fable 5. Fields medalist Terence Tao wrote on...
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Who’s the Best Batter? Estimating Probabilities from Unevenly Collected Data Win Vector’s Dr. Nina Zumel has an exciting new article to share: Who’s the Best Batter? Estimating...
21st May 2026
1

Who’s the Best Batter? Estimating Probabilities from Unevenly Collected Data

from Win Vector LLC [alt+shift+b] in AI

21st May 2026
Win Vector’s Dr. Nina Zumel has an exciting new article to share: Who’s the Best Batter? Estimating Probabilities from Unevenly Collected Data. It is a technical demonstration on how what one observes (outcomes, frequencies, and so on) differ from what we want to know...
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Exploring Chess Positions and Counts Introduction In our earlier article “How Many Chess Games are Possible?” we derived that the number...
11th Feb 2026
1

Exploring Chess Positions and Counts

from Win Vector LLC [alt+shift+b] in AI

11th Feb 2026
Introduction In our earlier article “How Many Chess Games are Possible?” we derived that the number of typical short chess games is around 10151. This turned out to be much larger than the “Shannon number” 10120 side-note from Shanon’s remarkable 1950 paper “Programming a...
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I am Tired of Praise of Byproduct I’ve been worrying a bit over the philosophy of creation and dissemination in the era of LLMs (large...
10th Jan 2026
1

I am Tired of Praise of Byproduct

from Win Vector LLC [alt+shift+b] in AI

10th Jan 2026
I’ve been worrying a bit over the philosophy of creation and dissemination in the era of LLMs (large language models). I feel we are overly impressed with the byproduct or even the bycatch. LLMs do complete some tasks, write code, and produce superficially convincing texts. In my...
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Text as a “Market for Lemons” I would like to write a bit about text. That is: technical writing, legal briefs, or even an opinion...
2nd Dec 2025
3

Text as a “Market for Lemons”

from Win Vector LLC [alt+shift+b] in AI

2nd Dec 2025
I would like to write a bit about text. That is: technical writing, legal briefs, or even an opinion piece such as this note. Such writings make up much of our society and form a “marketplace of ideas.” Texts are now very cheap to produce using large language models (LLMs). […]
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The Fermi Paradox Just From Rarity Sabine Hossenfelder’s video “Odds Are The Universe is Full Of Intelligent Life, Mathematician Finds”...
22nd Nov 2025
1

The Fermi Paradox Just From Rarity

from Win Vector LLC [alt+shift+b] in AI

22nd Nov 2025
Sabine Hossenfelder’s video “Odds Are The Universe is Full Of Intelligent Life, Mathematician Finds” recently pointed out a new paper on the Fermi paradox: Antal Veres “The solitude zone: A probabilistic window for singular lifeform existence”, Acta Astronautica Volume 238, Part...
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High Dimensional Optimization Remains Hard Introduction There is a thesis that high dimensional optimization is easy, and it is only our low...
9th Sep 2025
1

High Dimensional Optimization Remains Hard

from Win Vector LLC [alt+shift+b] in AI

9th Sep 2025
Introduction There is a thesis that high dimensional optimization is easy, and it is only our low dimensional intuition that is holding progress back. I’d like to try and explain why that isn’t quite the case. The background Some of the rigorous work on the nature of stationary...
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Modeling Uncertainty For Better Outcomes Recently here at Win Vector LLC we have been delivering good client outcomes using the Stan MCMC...
8th Aug 2025
1

Modeling Uncertainty For Better Outcomes

from Win Vector LLC [alt+shift+b] in AI

8th Aug 2025
Recently here at Win Vector LLC we have been delivering good client outcomes using the Stan MCMC sampler. It has allowed us to infer deep business factors, instead of being limited surface KPIs (key performance indicators). Modeling uncertainty requires stronger optimizers to...
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Reverse Chess This not is just a mention of a puzzle. I’ve been enjoying the Ludwig TV series. And in episode 4...
4th Jul 2025
1

Reverse Chess

from Win Vector LLC [alt+shift+b] in AI

4th Jul 2025
This not is just a mention of a puzzle. I’ve been enjoying the Ludwig TV series. And in episode 4 they introduce a puzzle of “retrograde analysis” or “reverse chess.” Frederic Friedel shared a great writeup on reverse chess on Chess News. And there is some discussion of the...
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