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The Diff

The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
yesterday
The Diff
Don't Try to Build Another Berkshire Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody;...
2 days ago
4
2 days ago
Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody; Unwinding a Bubble
The Diff
The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
4 days ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Education, Auto Theft, Optimizers, AI, Energy, Financial Engineering, Deep Research
a week ago
The Diff
How Many Layers in the AI Stack? Plus! Scale; Outsourcing Capital; Closed-Loop Generative AI; The Perks of Market Power; Labor...
a week ago
The Diff
Uber's AV Bet on a Narrow Range of Competitors' ROI Outcomes Plus! The Grid, and Cross-Subsidies; Pricing AI; Owning the Login; Liquidity Premium; Supply Chains
a week ago
The Diff
Globalization, Regulatory Arbitrage, and Reshoring-on-Paper Plus! Antitrust Enforcement; Full-Stack; Decentralizing; Spoiler Bids; Platform Management
a week ago
The Diff
AI Assistants Will Be Great (Especially for the Biggest Companies) Plus! Short Selling; Crypto Treasury Gresham's Law; The Joy of Higher Rates; Labor Substitution;...
a week ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread VC, Personal Finance, Careers, Hedge Funds, Hiring, Investing, Coase, Gates
a week ago
The Diff
De-Risking The 11-Figure Bets Plus! Thematic ETFs; Event-Driven Ads; Lagging Demand; Implementation; Labor Price Discrimination
2 weeks ago
The Diff
Short-Term Discretionary Traders Are Unusually Automatable Plus! Dimensions of Competition; Jurisdiction; Streaming Fragmentation; Diversification; Twitter...
2 weeks ago
The Diff
AI Interfaces Engineer Serendipity Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It...
2 weeks ago
10
2 weeks ago
Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It Sports Betting; Retaliatory Tariffs
The Diff
The Bid/Ask Spread for Top Talent Plus! De Minimis; ARR; Jurisdictions; Forward-Deployed Engineers; Software and Hardware; Diff Jobs
2 weeks ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
2 weeks ago
The Diff
Capital-Intensity and Legibility Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic...
3 weeks ago
12
3 weeks ago
Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic Reserves; Meta says Yes to Jevons
The Diff
Test-Time Compute Scaling Drives the AI Jevons Paradox Plus! AI Price Discrimination; Openness; Disclosure; Arbitrage; Meta
3 weeks ago
The Diff
There is an "AI Factor," and It's Worth Hedging Plus! Sweeteners; The American Difference; AI Experiments; Media Relations; Sanctions are Hard,...
3 weeks ago
The Diff
The New National Champions Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile;...
3 weeks ago
14
3 weeks ago
Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile; Defense
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tech Right, 10 bits, Smart Screens, AI, Gambling, Memes, Soviet Magic
3 weeks ago
The Diff
Venture Global as a Well-Structured Trade Plus! Agents; Capital Returns; Creator Underwriting; Crypto Plays; Airlines
4 weeks ago
The Diff
Planting a Flag Plus! Buildouts; Growth and Churn; Targeting Tweaks; DeepSeek; European Banks
a month ago
The Diff
General-Purpose Technologies Revalue Natural Resources Plus! Meme Coins; Fees; Platforms; Opportunistic Offers; Private Accounting Fraud
a month ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
a month ago
26
a month ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
The Diff
Meme Markets Plus! Equity Comp, Squared; Venture Debt; 5%; Crypto Leverage; Closed-End Funds
a month ago
The Diff
Two Models of Forward-Deployed Engineers Plus! Corporate VC; The New AI Model; The New AI Model, Continued; The Long But Volatile March;...
a month ago
The Diff
Good Accounting is a Positive Externality Plus! Crossovers; Politics: Back on Meta; Structure; Gradual Tariffs; Property Rights
a month ago
The Diff
The Economics of Logos Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost...
a month ago
27
a month ago
Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost Avoidance; State AI Investment
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in...
a month ago
28
a month ago
Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in doing what was previously thought to be impossible. It's not so much a unified theory of extreme effort as it is a comprehensive refutation of the existence of such theories. There...
The Diff
The Loneliness Economy Wins Through Higher Sustained Productivity Growth Plus! Bond Vigilantes; Deeper AI Search; Analysts; Shareholder Votes; Networks are Expensive to...
a month ago
The Diff
Moderation, Inside and Out Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More...
a month ago
28
a month ago
Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More Round-Trips
The Diff
Time Arbitrage and SaaS Pricing Power Plus! Search UX; Mining Crypto; Moderation; News is a Distribution Business; AI as UI
a month ago
The Diff
Credentialism and the Money Illusion Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and...
a month ago
29
a month ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and Downside of Ads; Backcasting Returns
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
a month ago
The Diff
The Large- and Small-Home Market Advantages Plus! Who Bears Ban Risk?; Carvana and Short-Selling Economics; VC; Productivity; A More Normal...
a month ago
The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
a month ago
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
2 months ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
2 months ago
The Diff
The Nvidia Way is the Regular Way, Just Faster Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese...
2 months ago
41
2 months ago
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese Characteristics
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
2 months ago
42
2 months ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
2 months ago
49
2 months ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
The Diff
What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up? Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
2 months ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
2 months ago
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
2 months ago
The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
2 months ago
The Diff
How High Does AI's Revenue Per User Get? Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't Scale Yet; Complete Markets; Legitimacy and Growth
The Diff
Social Media as a Test of Human-in-the-Loop Generative AI Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
2 months ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
2 months ago
The Diff
Initiations Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
2 months ago
The Diff
Are VCs Incentivized to be too Nice for Venture Debt? Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
2 months ago
The Diff
Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First? Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
2 months ago
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
2 months ago
The Diff
What Would a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Actually Do? Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State:...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State: Beauty Filters Edition
The Diff
We Still Have No Idea Whether Passive Investing is a Meaningful Risk Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC;...
2 months ago