The Roots of...
What if they gave an Industrial Revolution and nobody came?
Imagine you could go back in time to the ancient world to jump-start the Industrial Revolution. You...
2 weeks ago
Imagine you could go back in time to the ancient world to jump-start the Industrial Revolution. You carry with you plans for a steam engine, and you present them to the emperor, explaining how the machine could be used to drain water out of mines, pump bellows for blast furnaces,...
The Roots of...
Who regulates the regulators?
IRBs
Scott Alexander reviews a book about institutional review boards (IRBs), the panels that review...
4 weeks ago
IRBs
Scott Alexander reviews a book about institutional review boards (IRBs), the panels that review the ethics of medical trials: From Oversight to Overkill, by Dr. Simon Whitney. From the title alone, you can see where this is going.
IRBs are supposed to (among other things)...
The Roots of...
Quote quiz: “drifting into dependence”
Quote quiz: who said this? (No fair looking it up). I have modified the original quotation slightly,...
a month ago
Quote quiz: who said this? (No fair looking it up). I have modified the original quotation slightly, by making a handful of word substitutions to bring it up to date:
It might be argued that the human race would never be foolish enough to hand over all power to AI. But we are...
The Roots of...
Video: Intro to progress studies at Learning Night Boston
I got invited to speak at Learning Night Boston and give an intro to progress studies: why study...
2 weeks ago
I got invited to speak at Learning Night Boston and give an intro to progress studies: why study progress, and why do we need a new philosophy of progress? There are then a few minutes of Q&A. (It was in a bar and the audio quality is poor, sorry.)
The Roots of...
Do we get better or worse at adapting to change?
Verner Vinge, in a classic 1993 essay, described “the Singularity” as an era where progress becomes...
a month ago
Verner Vinge, in a classic 1993 essay, described “the Singularity” as an era where progress becomes “an exponential runaway beyond any hope of control.”
The idea that technological change might accelerate to a pace faster than we can keep up with is a common concern. Almost three...
The Roots of...
Can submarines swim?
Did any science fiction predict that when AI arrived, it would be unreliable, often illogical, and...
3 months ago
Did any science fiction predict that when AI arrived, it would be unreliable, often illogical, and frequently bullshitting? Usually in fiction, if the AI says something factually incorrect or illogical, that is a deep portent of something very wrong: the AI is sick, or turning...
The Roots of...
Can we “cure” cancer?
In an excellent recent essay on “big visions for biology,” Sam Rodriques writes:
Ask most biologists...
4 months ago
In an excellent recent essay on “big visions for biology,” Sam Rodriques writes:
Ask most biologists about the cure for cancer, and they will tell you it doesn’t exist: cancer is many diseases that are mostly unrelated to each other, and that all have to be cured one at a...
The Roots of...
Quote quiz answer
Here’s the answer to the recent quote quiz:
The author was Ted Kaczynski, aka the Unabomber. The...
3 weeks ago
Here’s the answer to the recent quote quiz:
The author was Ted Kaczynski, aka the Unabomber. The quote was taken from his manifesto, “Industrial Society and Its Future.” Here’s a slightly longer, and unaltered, quote:
First let us postulate that the computer scientists succeed in...
The Roots of...
Four lenses on AI risks
All powerful new technologies create both benefits and risks: cars, planes, drugs, radiation. AI is...
2 months ago
All powerful new technologies create both benefits and risks: cars, planes, drugs, radiation. AI is on a trajectory to become one of the most powerful technologies we possess; in some scenarios, it becomes by far the most powerful. It therefore will create both extraordinary...
The Roots of...
The American Information Revolution in Global Perspective
In “What if they gave an Industrial Revolution and nobody came?” I reviewed The British Industrial...
a week ago
In “What if they gave an Industrial Revolution and nobody came?” I reviewed The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective, by Robert Allen. In brief, Allen’s explanation for the Industrial Revolution is that Britain had high wages and cheap energy, which meant it was...
The Roots of...
What I’ve been reading, May 2023
This is a monthly feature. As usual, I’ve omitted recent blog posts and such, which you can find in...
4 weeks ago
This is a monthly feature. As usual, I’ve omitted recent blog posts and such, which you can find in my links digests.
John Gall, The Systems Bible (2012), aka Systemantics, 3rd ed. A concise, pithy collection of wisdom about “systems”, mostly human organizations, projects, and...
The Roots of...
The epistemic virtue of scope matching
Something a little bit different today. I’ll tie it in to progress, I promise.
I keep noticing a...
2 months ago
Something a little bit different today. I’ll tie it in to progress, I promise.
I keep noticing a particular epistemic pitfall (not exactly a “fallacy”), and a corresponding epistemic virtue that avoids it. I want to call this out and give it a name.
The virtue is: identifying the...
The Roots of...
What I’ve been reading, April 2023
A monthly feature. Note that I generally don’t include very recent writing here, such as the latest...
a month ago
A monthly feature. Note that I generally don’t include very recent writing here, such as the latest blog posts (for those, see my Twitter digests); this is for my deeper research.
AI
First, various historical perspectives on AI, many of which were quite prescient:
Alan Turing,...
The Roots of...
Why consumerism is good actually
“Consumerism” came up in my recent interview with Elle Griffin of The Post. Here’s what I had to say...
2 months ago
“Consumerism” came up in my recent interview with Elle Griffin of The Post. Here’s what I had to say (off the cuff):
I have to admit, I’ve never 100% understood what “consumerism” is, or what it’s supposed to be. I have the general sense of what people are gesturing at, but it...
The Roots of...
What I’ve been reading, March 2023
A new monthly feature, let me know what you think.
Books
Matt Ridley, How Innovation Works (2020)....
2 months ago
A new monthly feature, let me know what you think.
Books
Matt Ridley, How Innovation Works (2020). About halfway through, lots of interesting case studies, very readable.
Vaclav Smil, Creating the Twentieth Century (2005). I read the first chapter; saving the rest of it for when...
The Roots of...
The Commission for Stopping Further Improvements
On May 24, 1847, a bridge over the Dee River in Chester, England, collapsed. A passenger train...
a month ago
On May 24, 1847, a bridge over the Dee River in Chester, England, collapsed. A passenger train plunged into the river; five people were killed and nine seriously injured.
The subsequent investigation blamed the bridge’s cast iron girders. Cast iron, like concrete but unlike...
Full Width 
Shortcuts 
Sign Up 
Articles 
Blogs & Substacks 
Reading List 