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The Roots of Progress | Articles

The Roots of...
What I’ve been reading, September 2023 A quasi-monthly feature. Recent blog posts and news stories are generally omitted; you can find them...
a year ago
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a year ago
A quasi-monthly feature. Recent blog posts and news stories are generally omitted; you can find them in my links digests. I’ve been busy helping to choose the first cohort of our blogging fellowship, so my reading has been relatively light. All emphasis in bold in the quotes...
The Roots of...
What I’ve been reading, June 2023 A monthly feature. As usual, recent blog posts and news stories are omitted from this; you can find...
a year ago
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a year ago
A monthly feature. As usual, recent blog posts and news stories are omitted from this; you can find them in my links digests. In all quotes below, any emphasis in bold was added by me. Books Thomas S. Ashton, The Industrial Revolution, 1760–1830 (1948). A classic in the field,...
The Roots of...
What if they gave an Industrial Revolution and nobody came? Imagine you could go back in time to the ancient world to jump-start the Industrial Revolution. You...
a year ago
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a year ago
Imagine you could go back in time to the ancient world to jump-start the Industrial Revolution. You carry with you plans for a steam engine, and you present them to the emperor, explaining how the machine could be used to drain water out of mines, pump bellows for blast furnaces,...
The Roots of...
What is progress? In one sense, the concept of progress is simple, straightforward, and uncontroversial. In another...
11 months ago
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11 months ago
In one sense, the concept of progress is simple, straightforward, and uncontroversial. In another sense, it contains an entire worldview. The most basic meaning of “progress” is simply advancement along a path, or more generally from one state to another that is considered more...
The Roots of...
What I’ve been reading, October 2023 A ~monthly feature. Last month was busy for me with a lot of travel and a lot of focus on The Roots...
a year ago
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a year ago
A ~monthly feature. Last month was busy for me with a lot of travel and a lot of focus on The Roots of Progress as a nonprofit organization, so I haven’t had as much time as I prefer for research and writing. Recent blog posts and news stories are generally omitted; you can find...
The Roots of...
Event, Feb 29: “Towards a New Philosophy of Progress” in Boston and on Zoom On Thursday, February 29, I’ll be giving my talk “Towards a New Philosophy of Progress” to the New...
a year ago
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a year ago
On Thursday, February 29, I’ll be giving my talk “Towards a New Philosophy of Progress” to the New England Legal Foundation, for their Economic Liberty Speaker Series. The talk will be held over breakfast at NELF’s offices in Boston, and will also be livestreamed over Zoom. See...
The Roots of...
Quote quiz: “drifting into dependence” Quote quiz: who said this? (No fair looking it up). I have modified the original quotation slightly,...
a year ago
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a year ago
Quote quiz: who said this? (No fair looking it up). I have modified the original quotation slightly, by making a handful of word substitutions to bring it up to date: It might be argued that the human race would never be foolish enough to hand over all power to AI. But we are...
The Roots of...
Video: Intro to progress studies at Learning Night Boston I got invited to speak at Learning Night Boston and give an intro to progress studies: why study...
a year ago
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a year ago
I got invited to speak at Learning Night Boston and give an intro to progress studies: why study progress, and why do we need a new philosophy of progress? There are then a few minutes of Q&A. (It was in a bar and the audio quality is poor, sorry.)
The Roots of...
Who regulates the regulators? IRBs Scott Alexander reviews a book about institutional review boards (IRBs), the panels that review...
a year ago
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a year ago
IRBs Scott Alexander reviews a book about institutional review boards (IRBs), the panels that review the ethics of medical trials: From Oversight to Overkill, by Dr. Simon Whitney. From the title alone, you can see where this is going. IRBs are supposed to (among other things)...
The Roots of...
Developing a technology with safety in mind If a technology may introduce catastrophic risks, how do you develop it? It occurred to me that the...
a year ago
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a year ago
If a technology may introduce catastrophic risks, how do you develop it? It occurred to me that the Wright Brothers’ approach to inventing the airplane might make a good case study. The catastrophic risk for them, of course, was dying in a crash. This is exactly what happened...
The Roots of...
What I’ve been reading, May 2023 This is a monthly feature. As usual, I’ve omitted recent blog posts and such, which you can find in...
a year ago
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a year ago
This is a monthly feature. As usual, I’ve omitted recent blog posts and such, which you can find in my links digests. John Gall, The Systems Bible (2012), aka Systemantics, 3rd ed. A concise, pithy collection of wisdom about “systems”, mostly human organizations, projects, and...
The Roots of...
The American Information Revolution in Global Perspective In “What if they gave an Industrial Revolution and nobody came?” I reviewed The British Industrial...
a year ago
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a year ago
In “What if they gave an Industrial Revolution and nobody came?” I reviewed The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective, by Robert Allen. In brief, Allen’s explanation for the Industrial Revolution is that Britain had high wages and cheap energy, which meant it was...
The Roots of...
Making every researcher seek grants is a broken model When Galileo wanted to study the heavens through his telescope, he got money from those legendary...
a year ago
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a year ago
When Galileo wanted to study the heavens through his telescope, he got money from those legendary patrons of the Renaissance, the Medici. To win their favor, when he discovered the moons of Jupiter, he named them the Medicean Stars. Other scientists and inventors offered flashy...
The Roots of...
Quote quiz answer Here’s the answer to the recent quote quiz: The author was Ted Kaczynski, aka the Unabomber. The...
a year ago
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a year ago
Here’s the answer to the recent quote quiz: The author was Ted Kaczynski, aka the Unabomber. The quote was taken from his manifesto, “Industrial Society and Its Future.” Here’s a slightly longer, and unaltered, quote: First let us postulate that the computer scientists succeed in...
The Roots of...
Do we get better or worse at adapting to change? Verner Vinge, in a classic 1993 essay, described “the Singularity” as an era where progress becomes...
a year ago
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a year ago
Verner Vinge, in a classic 1993 essay, described “the Singularity” as an era where progress becomes “an exponential runaway beyond any hope of control.” The idea that technological change might accelerate to a pace faster than we can keep up with is a common concern. Almost three...
The Roots of...
A plea for solutionism on AI safety Will AI kill us all? This question has rapidly gone mainstream. A few months ago, it wasn’t...
a year ago
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a year ago
Will AI kill us all? This question has rapidly gone mainstream. A few months ago, it wasn’t seriously debated very far outside the rationalist community of LessWrong; now it’s reported in major media outlets including the NY Times, The Guardian, the Times of London, BBC, WIRED,...
The Roots of...
What I’ve been reading, March 2023 A new monthly feature, let me know what you think. Books Matt Ridley, How Innovation Works (2020)....
a year ago
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a year ago
A new monthly feature, let me know what you think. Books Matt Ridley, How Innovation Works (2020). About halfway through, lots of interesting case studies, very readable. Vaclav Smil, Creating the Twentieth Century (2005). I read the first chapter; saving the rest of it for when...
The Roots of...
The environment as infrastructure A good metaphor for the ideal relationship between humanity and the environment is that the...
a year ago
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a year ago
A good metaphor for the ideal relationship between humanity and the environment is that the environment is like critical infrastructure. Infrastructure is valuable, because it provides crucial services. You want to maintain it carefully, because it’s bad if it breaks down. But...
The Roots of...
What I’ve been reading, November 2023 A ~monthly feature. Recent blog posts and news stories are generally omitted; you can find them in...
a year ago
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a year ago
A ~monthly feature. Recent blog posts and news stories are generally omitted; you can find them in my links digests. All emphasis in bold in the quotes below was added by me. Books Finished Lynn White, Medieval Technology and Social Change (1962). Last time I talked about the...
The Roots of...
Can we “cure” cancer? In an excellent recent essay on “big visions for biology,” Sam Rodriques writes: Ask most biologists...
over a year ago
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over a year ago
In an excellent recent essay on “big visions for biology,” Sam Rodriques writes: Ask most biologists about the cure for cancer, and they will tell you it doesn’t exist: cancer is many diseases that are mostly unrelated to each other, and that all have to be cured one at a...
The Roots of...
2023 in review 2023 was another big year for me and The Roots of Progress. It was a year when ROP as an...
a year ago
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a year ago
2023 was another big year for me and The Roots of Progress. It was a year when ROP as an organization really started to take off. Even though the org itself was formed in 2021, at first it was just a vehicle for my own intellectual work, plus a few side projects. Last year we...
The Roots of...
Can submarines swim? Did any science fiction predict that when AI arrived, it would be unreliable, often illogical, and...
over a year ago
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over a year ago
Did any science fiction predict that when AI arrived, it would be unreliable, often illogical, and frequently bullshitting? Usually in fiction, if the AI says something factually incorrect or illogical, that is a deep portent of something very wrong: the AI is sick, or turning...
The Roots of...
Why you, personally, should want a larger human population What is the ideal size of the human population? One common answer is “much smaller.” Paul Ehrlich,...
12 months ago
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12 months ago
What is the ideal size of the human population? One common answer is “much smaller.” Paul Ehrlich, co-author of The Population Bomb (1968), has as recently as 2018 promoted the idea that “the world’s optimum population is less than two billion people,” a reduction of the current...
The Roots of...
Levels of safety for AI and other technologies What does it mean for AI to be “safe”? Right now there is a lot of debate about AI safety. But...
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a year ago
What does it mean for AI to be “safe”? Right now there is a lot of debate about AI safety. But people often end up talking past each other because they’re not using the same definitions or standards. For the sake of productive debates, let me propose some distinctions to add...
The Roots of...
If you wish to make an apple pie, you must first become dictator of the universe The word “robot” is derived from the Czech robota, which means “serfdom.” It was introduced over a...
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The word “robot” is derived from the Czech robota, which means “serfdom.” It was introduced over a century ago by the Czech play R.U.R., for “Rossum’s Universal Robots.” In the play, the smartest and best-educated of the robots leads a slave revolt that wipes out most of...
The Roots of...
What I’ve been reading, April 2023 A monthly feature. Note that I generally don’t include very recent writing here, such as the latest...
a year ago
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a year ago
A monthly feature. Note that I generally don’t include very recent writing here, such as the latest blog posts (for those, see my Twitter digests); this is for my deeper research. AI First, various historical perspectives on AI, many of which were quite prescient: Alan Turing,...
The Roots of...
The Commission for Stopping Further Improvements On May 24, 1847, a bridge over the Dee River in Chester, England, collapsed. A passenger train...
a year ago
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a year ago
On May 24, 1847, a bridge over the Dee River in Chester, England, collapsed. A passenger train plunged into the river; five people were killed and nine seriously injured. The subsequent investigation blamed the bridge’s cast iron girders. Cast iron, like concrete but unlike...
The Roots of...
Accelerating science through evolvable institutions This is the written version of a talk presented to the Santa Fe Institute at a working group on...
a year ago
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a year ago
This is the written version of a talk presented to the Santa Fe Institute at a working group on “Accelerating Science.” We’re here to discuss “accelerating science.” I like to start on topics like this by taking the historical view: When (if ever) has science accelerated in the...
The Roots of...
Four lenses on AI risks All powerful new technologies create both benefits and risks: cars, planes, drugs, radiation. AI is...
a year ago
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a year ago
All powerful new technologies create both benefits and risks: cars, planes, drugs, radiation. AI is on a trajectory to become one of the most powerful technologies we possess; in some scenarios, it becomes by far the most powerful. It therefore will create both extraordinary...
The Roots of...
Highlights from The Industrial Revolution, by T. S. Ashton The Industrial Revolution, 1760-1830, by Thomas S. Ashton, is classic in the field, published in...
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a year ago
The Industrial Revolution, 1760-1830, by Thomas S. Ashton, is classic in the field, published in 1948. Here are some of my highlights from it. (Emphasis in bold added by me.) The role of chance What was the role of chance in the inventions of the Industrial Revolution? It is true...
The Roots of...
Neither EA nor e/acc is what we need to build the future Over the last few years, effective altruism has gone through a rise-and-fall story arc worthy of any...
a year ago
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a year ago
Over the last few years, effective altruism has gone through a rise-and-fall story arc worthy of any dramatic tragedy. The pandemic made them look prescient for warning about global catastrophic risks, including biosafety. A masterful book launch put them on the cover of TIME....
The Roots of...
The epistemic virtue of scope matching Something a little bit different today. I’ll tie it in to progress, I promise. I keep noticing a...
a year ago
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a year ago
Something a little bit different today. I’ll tie it in to progress, I promise. I keep noticing a particular epistemic pitfall (not exactly a “fallacy”), and a corresponding epistemic virtue that avoids it. I want to call this out and give it a name. The virtue is: identifying the...
The Roots of...
Why consumerism is good actually “Consumerism” came up in my recent interview with Elle Griffin of The Post. Here’s what I had to say...
a year ago
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a year ago
“Consumerism” came up in my recent interview with Elle Griffin of The Post. Here’s what I had to say (off the cuff): I have to admit, I’ve never 100% understood what “consumerism” is, or what it’s supposed to be. I have the general sense of what people are gesturing at, but it...
The Roots of...
Why no Roman Industrial Revolution? Why didn’t the Roman Empire have an industrial revolution? Bret Devereaux has an essay addressing...
a year ago
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a year ago
Why didn’t the Roman Empire have an industrial revolution? Bret Devereaux has an essay addressing that question, which multiple people have pointed me to at various times. In brief, Devereaux says that Britain industrialized through a very specific path, involving coal mines,...
The Roots of...
What does it mean to “trust science”? And this, my children, is why we do not say things like “I believe in science”. I mean, don’t get me...
a year ago
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a year ago
And this, my children, is why we do not say things like “I believe in science”. I mean, don’t get me wrong, science definitely exists—I’ve seen it. But not everything that calls itself science is science, and even good science sometimes gets wrong results. –Megan McArdle Should...
The Roots of...
Cellular reprogramming, pneumatic launch systems, and terraforming Mars In December, I went to the Foresight Institute’s Vision Weekend 2023 in San Francisco. I had a lot...
a year ago
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a year ago
In December, I went to the Foresight Institute’s Vision Weekend 2023 in San Francisco. I had a lot of fun talking to a bunch of weird and ambitious geeks about the glorious abundant technological future. Here are few things I learned about (with the caveat that this is mostly...
The Roots of...
Links digest, 2023-10-12 I’ve been traveling for a while, so this is a long one, covering the last ~month. I tried to cut it...
a year ago
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a year ago
I’ve been traveling for a while, so this is a long one, covering the last ~month. I tried to cut it down, but there have been so many amazing announcements, opportunities, etc.! Feel free to skim and jump around: From the Roots of Progress fellows Connor O’Brien and Adam Ozimek...
The Roots of...
What I’ve been reading, July–August 2023 A quasi-monthly feature (I skipped it last month, so this is a double portion). This is a longish...
a year ago
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a year ago
A quasi-monthly feature (I skipped it last month, so this is a double portion). This is a longish post covering many topics; feel free to skim and skip around. Recent blog posts and news stories are generally omitted; you can find them in my links digests. These updates are less...
The Roots of...
The origins of the steam engine This is a guest post written by Anton Howes and animated by Matt Brown of Extraordinary Facility....
a year ago
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a year ago
This is a guest post written by Anton Howes and animated by Matt Brown of Extraordinary Facility. This project was sponsored by The Roots of Progress, with funding generously provided by The Institute. Steam power did not begin with the steam engine. Long before...