Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 31 and DOW futures are down 192 (fair value). WTI futures at $69.36 per barrel and Brent at $73.63 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $85, and Brent was at $87 - so WTI oil prices are down about 18% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.12 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.51 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.39 year-over-year.

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Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 8.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.   Inventory was up 30.6% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 30.3%), and down 19.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 19.5%).  The gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!  It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025. This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of March 28th, inventory was at 676 thousand (7-day average), compared to 668 thousand the prior week.  Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

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The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday. ----- Monday, March 31st ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March. ----- Tuesday, April 1st ----- 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS. ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, unchanged from 50.3 in February.   Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in construction spending. All Day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.6 million SAAR in March, up from 16.0 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). ----- Wednesday, April 2nd ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 77,000 added in February. ----- Thursday, April 3rd ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week. 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. ISM Services Index for March. ----- Friday, April 4th ----- 8:30 AM: Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia