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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in February. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.4% in February, down from up 3.6% YoY in January. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ... For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 7 of the 10 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. There is much more in the article!
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 8.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 30.6% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 30.3%), and down 19.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 19.5%). The gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly! It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025. This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of March 28th, inventory was at 676 thousand (7-day average), compared to 668 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 31 and DOW futures are down 192 (fair value). WTI futures at $69.36 per barrel and Brent at $73.63 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $85, and Brent was at $87 - so WTI oil prices are down about 18% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.12 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.51 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.39 year-over-year.
Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak
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Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 31 and DOW futures are down 192 (fair value). WTI futures at $69.36 per barrel and Brent at $73.63 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $85, and Brent was at $87 - so WTI oil prices are down about 18% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.12 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.51 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.39 year-over-year.
Plus! Solve for X + X; Refactoring; AI and Distribution; How Models Think; The AI Business Model
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in February. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.4% in February, down from up 3.6% YoY in January. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ... For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 7 of the 10 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. There is much more in the article!
The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday. ----- Monday, March 31st ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March. ----- Tuesday, April 1st ----- 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS. ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, unchanged from 50.3 in February. Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in construction spending. All Day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.6 million SAAR in March, up from 16.0 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). ----- Wednesday, April 2nd ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 77,000 added in February. ----- Thursday, April 3rd ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week. 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. ISM Services Index for March. ----- Friday, April 4th ----- 8:30 AM: Employment Report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia
