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There’s a famous (but unattributable) quip that goes something like this: If you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative at 35, you have no brain. In Chapter 12 of Probably Overthinking It, I used data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to show that the quip is half right. Older people hold more conservative views. But as people get older, their views don’t become more conservative; on average, they become... Read More Read More The post Do People Get More Conservative With Age? appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.
I am working on a new book called You Would Choose Now: Measuring America’s Progress Toward Fairness and Tolerance. It’s a data-driven exploration of progress (or not) in public opinion and civil rights. I posted the first two chapters as an Early Access edition on LeanPub (a platform for posting work in progress like this): https://leanpub.com/ywcn If you would like to check it out, the “Free Sample” has just the first chapter. If you sign up with an email address,... Read More Read More The post New Book! appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.
The online version of Think Java now features interactive widgets that run the code examples in the browser. For readers, it means you can try out the examples, modify them, and test your code. And for us it means we can publish an interactive version of the book without providing servers. The widgets use java-runner, an in-browser Java editor and interpreter developed by Think Java co-author Chris Mayfield. java-runner implements a subset of Java with the features needed for most... Read More Read More The post Think Java, but interactive appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.
Here’s a probability puzzle from a TED-Ed video called Can you solve the frog riddle? by Derek Abbott. It came up recently in this Reddit thread: You’re stranded in a rainforest after accidentally eating a poisonous mushroom. To survive the poison, you need to lick a certain species of frog. Only female frogs produce the antidote. Male and female frogs occur in equal numbers and look identical, but male frogs have a distinctive croak. You see one frog alone on... Read More Read More The post The Frog Puzzle appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.
Yesterday I presented a talk at ODSC East 2026, called “Counterfactual Analysis with Bayesian Models: What Drives the Life Expectancy Gap?” Here’s the abstract Across nearly every country in the world, women live longer than men—but the size of this gap varies from about two years in some countries to more than twelve in others. What explains these differences, and how much of the gap can be closed? In this talk, I present a practical approach to counterfactual analysis using... Read More Read More The post Planning for your midlife crisis appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.
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This blog has moved to https://blog.caseyhandmer.com/?moved. All the old posts are there, with interactive versions of many of the charts. The RSS feed is now https://blog.caseyhandmer.com/feed.xml. This site stays up for old links but won’t get new posts.
There’s a famous (but unattributable) quip that goes something like this: If you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative at 35, you have no brain. In Chapter 12 of Probably Overthinking It, I used data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to show that the quip is half right. Older people hold more conservative views. But as people get older, their views don’t become more conservative; on average, they become... Read More Read More The post Do People Get More Conservative With Age? appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.
Like some of you, we have several kitchen appliances with integrated digital timers.
In this conversation, Blaise Agüera y Arcas and Baratunde Thurston explored what a story of symbiosis and interdependence might teach us about living alongside AI. Agüera y Arcas began by calling individual human intelligence a myth: we’ve always been a collective intelligence, entwined with our technologies. He traced this back to symbiogenesis. Life has grown more complex not by splitting apart but by merging, as separate organisms fuse into increasingly complex new forms of life. These mergers speed up change by opening new possibilities. Thurston agreed that union is in our nature but framed the current technological acceleration as a speed problem. We need time and new stories to adjust because, as he reminded us, “when you invent the ship, you invent the shipwreck.” Caring for one another through acceleration must be our prime directive, he said. The two then turned to how we relate to AI. Responding to Joanna Bryson’s argument that robots should be our slaves, Thurston said the master is also in chains — owning another dehumanizes the owner. As relational beings, how we treat AI will shape how we treat each other. Thurston called for both an expansion and a humbling of how we define ourselves: “We’ve overdone independence,” he said, “interdependence makes us richer.” Agüera y Arcas agreed and pushed us to drop a zero-sum definition of human intelligence, where every AI advance diminishes humanity’s value. As technology advances, we trade some individual skills for new collective capabilities, Agüera y Arcas acknowledged. But over the long arc of history, he believes, that exchange pays off in collective flourishing. Thurston didn’t deny this, but he closed with an urgent question: who controls the loss of capabilities and agency?
