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I am working on a new book called You Would Choose Now: Measuring America’s Progress Toward Fairness and Tolerance. It’s a data-driven exploration of progress (or not) in public opinion and civil rights. I posted the first two chapters as an Early Access edition on LeanPub (a platform for posting work in progress like this): https://leanpub.com/ywcn If you would like to check it out, the “Free Sample” has just the first chapter. If you sign up with an email address,... Read More Read More The post New Book! appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.
Here’s a probability puzzle from a TED-Ed video called Can you solve the frog riddle? by Derek Abbott. It came up recently in this Reddit thread: You’re stranded in a rainforest after accidentally eating a poisonous mushroom. To survive the poison, you need to lick a certain species of frog. Only female frogs produce the antidote. Male and female frogs occur in equal numbers and look identical, but male frogs have a distinctive croak. You see one frog alone on... Read More Read More The post The Frog Puzzle appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.
Yesterday I presented a talk at ODSC East 2026, called “Counterfactual Analysis with Bayesian Models: What Drives the Life Expectancy Gap?” Here’s the abstract Across nearly every country in the world, women live longer than men—but the size of this gap varies from about two years in some countries to more than twelve in others. What explains these differences, and how much of the gap can be closed? In this talk, I present a practical approach to counterfactual analysis using... Read More Read More The post Planning for your midlife crisis appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.
In a previous article, I claimed that Young adults are not very happy. Now the World Happiness Report 2026 has confirmed that young people in North America and Western Europe are less happy than they were fifteen years ago, and less happy than previous generations. In this article, we’ll look at results from three related questions in the General Social Survey (GSS): As we’ll see, young adults in the United States have a more negative outlook than previous generations: they... Read More Read More The post Trust and Well-Being appeared first on Probably Overthinking It.
More in science
Researchers created a dataset of photos of thousands of paper-thin slices of a male and female cadaver to create one of the most detailed datasets about the human body.
In a remote corner of the driest state in the country, Anne Heggli's team has been keeping watch over some of Earth’s oldest beings. Since 02012, Heggli’s NevCAN network has recorded conditions at the Nevada Bristlecone Preserve every eight minutes. The result is more than 120 million data points and a high-resolution portrait of how a bristlecone pine thrives. Paleoclimatologist Adam Csank showed how bristlecone microcores reveal the droughts and floods these trees survived long before us, a history that fine-tunes models of what's ahead. Artist and philosopher Jonathon Keats went further. “The most accurate clock,” he said, “is a tree.” His monumental artwork Centuries of the Bristlecone keeps bristlecone time, a clock calibrated to the trees' own growth over millennia. Together, Heggli, Keats and Csank made the case for long science: patient, continuous observation that will help us answer future urgent questions. “Data at this resolution,” Csank said, “is like a Rosetta Stone” for understanding nature’s resilience. At fourteen years young, the bristlecone record is just beginning, Heggli said, but it already holds the key to questions like these: How will bristlecones adapt? What happens when the droughts and floods they've weathered for millennia arrive faster and more frequently? “We can't answer the questions if we're not watching,” said Csank. “We are the stewards of this data,” Heggli concluded. “This is why we need long science.”
Prende y se apaga sola, sale después de hora. CHARLY GARCÍA La máquina de ser feliz I’ve learned to tolerate them, and sometimes even like them, but Zoom meetings are weird. Even in familiar contexts: I have weekly check-ins with … Continue reading →
the economics are especially interesting
