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And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes – arguably reverting to… Continue reading Dec ’24 – 2024 in review →
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk of recession. A… Continue reading Nov ’24: 3x →
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds outside. Finally, the UK’s first Labour budget for… Continue reading Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders →
Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of compound annual growth rates is something I feel quite viscerally, the more so with each month that I track my portfolio. But I’ve been struck recently by a radical improvement in my portfolio’s dividend income, far in excess of the… Continue reading Compounding, type II →
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The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade deficit. ----- Monday, February 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. 10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending. All day: Light vehicle sales for January. Sales were at 16.8 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Wards expects vehicle sales to decrease to 15.6 million SAAR in January. Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS). ----- Tuesday, February 4th ----- 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS. ----- Wednesday, February 5th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in January, up from 122,000 added in December. 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau. ISM Services Index for January. Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS). ----- Thursday, February 6th ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 214 thousand from 207 thousand last week. ----- Friday, February 7th ----- 8:30 AM: Employment Report for December. The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January).
Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales
OpenAI has just unveiled o3-mini, the latest addition to its "reasoning" model family.
From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate at +2.3%. We launched our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate at +2.3%, in line with the advance reading. [Jan 31st estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on January 31. The initial estimate of last quarter's real GDP growth rate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 30 was 2.3 percent, the same as the final GDPNow model nowcast after rounding. [Jan 31st estimate]
