Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. The Case-Shiller National Index increased 4.1% year-over-year (YoY) in January and will be about the same YoY - or slightly lower - in the February report (based on other data). There is much more in the article.

It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate its demise. Globalization's great gift wasn't low prices--it was the collapse of durability, transforming the global economy into a Landfill Economy of shoddy products made of low-cost components guaranteed to fail, poor quality control, planned obsolescence and accelerated product cycles--all hyper-profitable, all to the detriment of consumers and the planet. Globalization also accelerated another hyper-profitable gambit: . Since all the products are now made with the same low-quality components, they all fail regardless of brand or price. The $2,000 refrigerator lasts no longer than the $700 fridge. Since the manufacturers and retailers all know the products are destined for the landfill by either design or default, warranties are uniformly one-year--and it's semi-miraculous if the consumer can find anyone to act on replacing or repairing the failed product even with the warranty. In The Landfill Economy, Consumer choice is pure illusion. I'd like to buy once, cry once, so where is the option with a 10-year all parts and labor warranty? There isn't one, because nothing is durable--by design or default. As a result, The Landfill Economy is fundamentally extortionist. We know this product will fail, you know this product will fail, and so here's our offer: buy a 3-year extended warranty for a hefty sum, because we've engineered the product to fail in four years. If the product is digital, then even if it still functions, we'll force you to replace it via a new product cycle: we no longer support the old operating system, and since your device is out of date (heh) it can't load the new OS, and since all the apps now only function with the new OS, your device is useless. The low price is also illusory, as we now have to buy four, five or ten products instead of one durable product. Appliances that once lasted 40 years now fail in 6 or 7 years if not sooner, so over the course of 40 years we have to buy five, six or seven appliances instead of one. Note that these durable products weren't super-expensive commercial appliances; they were ordinary consumer appliances produced domestically in vast quantities. Digitization is a key driver of The Landfill Economy, as cheap electronics all fail, and the product / vehicle / tool becomes a brick. Since inventory is an expense, it's been eliminated, so parts for older products are soon out of stock and unavailable. In a few years, the firmware is no longer supported, and in a few decades, nobody will even know what coding was embedded in the chipset, but it won't matter anyway, because the chipsets are long gone. Readers tell me vehicles are now wondrously reliable. Um, yeah, until they need to be repaired. Then the cost is higher than what I've paid for entire used cars. A friend was showing us his 1957 Chevrolet Bel-Air. Unlike the stainless steal and low-quality chrome of today, the original parts are still untarnished. Since the entire vehicle is analog, parts can be scrounged or fabricated or swapped out with a similar set-up. Does anyone seriously believe that a chipset-software-dependent vehicle today will still be running 68 years from now? Analog parts can be cast or welded; customized chipsets and firmware coding cannot. The original components will all be history. Our friend recounted a very typical story about repairing his recent-model pickup truck. Since the engine was no longer responding to the accelerator, he borrowed a diagnostic computer (horribly expensive to maintain due to the extortionist monthly fee to keep the software upgraded) and came up with zip, zero, nada. After swapping out the fuel pump at great expense and finding the problem persisted, he went online to YouTube University and found one video that explained the relay box from the accelerator to the engine didn't show up in the diagnostic codes, so the problem could not be identified. The relay box cost $400, and likely consisted of components worth no more than a few dollars each. So after $1,000 in parts and his own labor, the problem was finally fixed. If this qualifies as "super-reliable and maintenance-free," then the diagnosis is obvious: mass delusion. So now the status quo is desperate to maintain the global assembly lines feeding the hyper-profitable Landfill Economy. This may well be the last gasp of The Landfill Economy, as the supply chains of shoddy products designed to fail will break and consumers may well awaken to the high cost over time of an economy based on planned obsolescence, accelerated product cycles and extortionist illusions of choice. Last week I bought an expensive portable solar panel manufactured in China from a local distributor. The U.S. brand distributing the product has a good reputation for quality. Of course the warranty is for one year. The panel failed in less than a week: I smelled the unmistakable odor of an electrical short (insulation melting) and noticed the plastic rectangle that the output cord extended from was dimpled by high heat. The plastic part had no visible way to open it, and no visible way to replace it. So the entire panel is unrepairable. (The local distributor had one in stock, so I was able to get a replacement. Here's hoping it has a non-defective set of components.) It's doubtful anyone has the parts in stock, and it's also doubtful that it could be repaired even if one pried open the plastic casing to examine the melted bits. The parts are in one place--the factory that assembled the panel. So this panel, manufactured at great expense of costly materials, will end up in the landfill after five days of service. And no, it won't be recycled, as there's no system to do so, and it doesn't make financial sense to even try. Wow, isn't The Landfill Economy fantastic? Look how profitable it is, as consumers must constantly replace or repair at great expense everything that comes off the wonderful global supply chains. And since we worship "growth" and profits, The Landfill Economy is the ideal arrangement--for those making and selling all the stuff. For the consumers--not so much, but who cares, since they have no choice but to keep buying shoddy products designed to fail. Add the defective solar panel to the long list of other failed products in our household: the iPhone screen that failed, the washer that failed, the dryer that failed (which I was able to fix by replacing the motherboard, which only cost half the price of a new dryer with my "free" labor), the failed fridge, defective toaster from Walmart, shoes from Costco that fell apart in a few months, and the failed AC system in our 2016 Honda Civic. (Mention this to any mechanic and they quickly nod, "oh yeah, those all fail.") All of this failure generates "growth" and profits, the two Grails every economist worships. Here's another load of "growth" going straight into the landfill. It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate its demise. 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From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 April. ... 30 March through 5 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 63.8% (-0.6%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Click on graph for larger image. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is at the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue). Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We might see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is routed via crypto infrastructure, then it no longer qualifies as money laundering. Earlier this week the Department of Justice's deputy attorney general Todd Blanche sent out an internal staff memo saying that the digital asset industry (read: crypto) is "critical to the nation’s economic development." (Editor's note: it's not.) As such, staff have been instructed to stop targeting crypto platforms such as exchanges, mixers like Tornado Cash and ChipMixer, and offline wallets for the "acts of their end users."  What does "the acts of their end users" mean? Further clarity arrives deeper into Blanche's memo. It helpfully draws attention to how cartels operating in the fentanyl trade often use digital assets. This is well known. Tether, for instance, is a popular payments platform in the fentanyl trade. (See here, here, and here). And yet, the Department goes on to explain that while it will continue to pursue cartels, terrorist organizations, and other illicit enterprises for their financial crimes, it "will not pursue actions against the platforms that these enterprises utilize to conduct their illegal activities." This marks a radical departure from long-established financial law on Planet Earth, where financial institutions are generally held responsible for the "acts of their end users," and are pursued when criminals use them to "conduct their illegal activities." It's what's known in law as money laundering. Money laundering is a two-sided crime. There's the first leg: a criminal who has dirty money. And there is the second leg: the criminal's counterparty, a financial intermediary (a bank, crypto exchange, remittance platform, money courier, or helpful individual) who processes the dirty funds. Both legs are prosecutable. That's precisely what happened to both TD Bank and its cartel-linked customers when they were charged last year. Financial providers are held liable for the crimes of their users. The same two-sidedness goes for sanctions evasion. There is the sanctioned party and there is the financial platform that facilitates their evasion. Both are indictable.   If, as Blanche suggests, digital asset platforms are no longer to be targeted for the "acts of their end users," that's effectively saying that the second leg of a money laundering or sanctions violation is no longer a violation, at least not when a crypto platform is involved. So if cartel deposits dirty money at an exchange like Binance which facilitates their crypto transactions, the exchange won't be pursued. Only the cartel will be. In effect the entire technology has been handed a get-out-of-money-laundering-jail-free card. A detached observer could safely assume that crypto platforms will respond by easing up on their compliance measures—they won't be indicted, after all—which, in turn, will allow more bad actors to make use of their services. The memo provides more details. It's quite likely that both the ongoing Tornado Cash case (which I've written about extensively) and the ChipMixer case will be dropped, as the memo explicitly states that the Department will no longer target mixing and tumbling services. Tornado Cash, a smart-contract based mixer, operates with a large proportion of its infrastructure running through automated code, whereas first-generation mixers like ChipMixer are entirely human-operated. The latter had mostly disappeared thanks to a series of successful criminal convictions, but will spring back into action as the threat of indictment recedes—leading to more anonymity for the entire system, including for criminals. The memo's prohibition against Department lawyers targeting "offline wallets" likely refers to "unhosted wallets," which presumably applies to stablecoins—a highly popular type of crypto token pegged to national currencies. Stablecoin users can either hold balances of a stablecoin like Tether or USDC in unhosted format, within their personal crypto wallets, or hold them with the issuer for redemption into actual dollars, in which case they become "hosted." The implication seems to be that if unhosted stablecoins are used by bad actors, the issuers themselves won't be targeted. It's a fantastic policy—if your goal was to encourage fentanyl cartels to use stablecoins. This decriminalization of crypto money laundering is a ratification of how much of the crypto ecosystem already operates. Just last week, for example, I wrote about stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle allowing Garantex, a sanctioned Russian exchange, to hold balances of their stablecoins. The issuers seem to believe that providing access to illicit end users like Garantex is legal. And now, it seems, the government has confirmed their view by no longer targeting unhosted wallets for the "acts of their end users." Now that we've explored some of the immediate legal and technical consequences of this decision, it's worth asking: who on earth benefits from this sudden shift in policy? Because clearly most people will be made worse off.  I'm only speculating, but here's who this policy may be designed to appease and/or reward: Trump-voting libertarians who have arrived at the odd belief that money laundering shouldn't be a crime. San Francisco crypto entrepreneurs who want to create financial platforms on the cheap, without the burden of building expensive compliance programs to prevent criminals usage. These entrepreneurs also want their crypto platforms to have access to bank accounts, but banks have been hesitant due to the high risk of crypto-based money laundering. Now that crypto has immunity, banks no longer have to worry. Crypto entrepreneurs voted for Trump, funded him, and are a big part of his administration. This is their payback. Trump himself who seems intent on building a murky authoritarian system of bribery and patronage à la Putin or Orban. This system requires money laundering-friendly financial infrastructure, and the Department's memo may be an early step to creating it. (The Trump family, with its many crypto-based entrepreneurial efforts, is also part of the second group.) In the long term, banks and other traditional providers may benefit, too. With crypto-based finance now unburdened of a major law, every single financial provider operating outside of this crypto-friendly zone, such as traditional banks and fintechs, will be incentivized to switch their database infrastructure over to crypto in order to qualify for this loophole. That means shifting your Wells Fargo U.S. dollar savings account over to a blockchain-based dollar saving account. Doing so will allow banks and fintechs to cut compliance costs and increase their profits. Once the entire financial sector has migrated through the loophole, it will no longer be a crime to launder funds for criminals. And with mixers no longer being charged by the Department of Justice, that means blanket anonymity for everyone. As far as the public's welfare goes, the memo is awful. Like theft and fraud, money laundering is immoral and should be punished. Giving one stratum of society a free pass from any law, whether that be money laundering or theft or murder, erodes trust in government and the financial-legal system. More broadly, society's money laundering laws are a key defence against all types of other crimes. The so-called predicate offences to money laundering such as robbery, human smuggling, and corruption become much more tricky to carry out when, thanks to money laundering laws, the financial system does its best to shut them out. The dissuasive effect engendered by this effort stops many would-be criminals from ever leaving the licit economy. Take away those laws and the case for becoming a criminal becomes much more persuasive.

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