The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40, up from 39 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season Growing economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns and elevated building material costs kept builder sentiment in negative territory in April, despite a modest bump in confidence likely due to a slight retreat in mortgage interest rates in recent weeks. Policy uncertainty is having a negative impact on home builders, making it difficult for them to accurately price homes and make critical business decisions,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The April HMI data indicates that the tariff cost effect is already taking hold, with the majority of builders reporting cost increases on building materials due to tariffs.” ... emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was slightly above the consensus forecast.

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3 percent in March but increased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent in the first quarter. The March decline was led by a 5.8 percent drop in the index for utilities, as temperatures were warmer than is typical for the month. In contrast, the indexes for manufacturing and mining grew 0.3 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in March was 1.3 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped down to 77.8 percent, a rate that is 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production decreased to 103.9. This is above the pre-pandemic level. Industrial production was at consensus expectations.

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.6 percent from March 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $734.9 billion, up 1.4 percent from the previous month, and up 4.6 percent from March 2024. ... The January 2025 to February 2025 percent change was unrevised from up 0.2 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The change in sales in March were slightly above expectations, and sales in January and February were revised up, combined.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 8.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 11, 2025. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates moved 20 basis points higher last week, abruptly slowing the pace of mortgage application activity with refinance volume dropping 12 percent and purchase volume falling 5 percent for the week. Purchase volume remains almost 13 percent above last year’s level, but economic uncertainty and the volatility in rates is likely to make at least some prospective buyers more hesitant to move forward with a purchase,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “One notable change last week was the full percentage point increase in the ARM share. Given the jump in rates, more borrowers are opting for the lower initial rates that come with an ARM, with initial fixed rates closer to 6 percent in our survey last week. The ARM share at 9.6 percent was the highest since November 2023, and this reflects the share of units. On a dollar basis, almost a quarter of the application volume last week was for ARMs, as borrowers with larger loans are even more likely to opt for an ARM.” emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).   Purchase application activity is up about 31% from the lows in late October 2023 and is 9% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.   The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990. The refinance index decreased.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in retail sales.  Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.9%. NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 37, down from 29.  Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. • At 1:30 PM, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Ill.