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From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March On the positive side of the Easter calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported increases across the key performance metrics, according to CoStar’s latest data through 29 March. ... 23-29 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 65.1% (+4.4%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Click on graph for larger image. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue). Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We might see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.
19 hours ago

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March Employment Report: 228 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined. employment in January and February combined is 48,000 lower than previously reported. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Total payrolls increased by 228 thousand in March.  Private payrolls increased by 209 thousand, and public payrolls increased 19 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 4 thousand). Payrolls for January and February were revised down by 48 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.5% in March, from 62.4% in February. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. I'll have more later ...

2 hours ago 1 votes
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia

14 hours ago 1 votes
March Employment Preview

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 150k in March, slightly above consensus ... We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.1%. emphasis added From BofA: Nonfarm payrolls are likely to increase by a robust 185k in March, higher than consensus expectations of 135k, due to payback in leisure & hospitality for cold weather in Jan and Feb. Government job growth is expected to come in at just 10k due to the federal hiring freeze/DOGE. Given the muted claims data in the survey week, we do not expect DOGE driven job cuts to be a sizable drag, although risks are to the downside. We expect the u rate to remain at 4.1%. • ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 155,000 private sector jobs were added in March.  This was above consensus forecasts and suggests job gains above consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report. ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index decreased to 44.7%, down from 47.6% the previous month.   This would suggest about 50,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 21,000 manufacturing jobs added in March. ISM® services employment index decreased to 46.2%, from 53.5%. This would suggest 30,000 jobs lost in the service sector. Combined this suggests 80,000 jobs added, well below consensus expectations.  (Note: The ISM surveys have been way off recently) Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed about the same initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 225,000 in March compared to 224,000 in February.  This suggests layoffs in March were about the same as in February. • Conclusion: Over the last year, employment gains averaged 155 thousand per month - and that is probably the current trend.  It seems early for the government related layoffs to significantly impact employment.  Also, although the ISM employment indexes were weak this month, my guess is headline employment gains will be above consensus in March.

18 hours ago 2 votes
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow • Home price growth is beginning to cool as modestly improved demand is running up against higher levels of inventory across most major markets The annual home price growth rate dipped to +2.7% in February from +3.4% the month prior, marking the sharpest single month of deceleration in the annual home price growth rate since early 2023, 2023, with an early look at March data via ICE's enhanced Home Price Index suggesting that price growth has cooled further to +2.2% • On a seasonally adjusted basis, home prices rose by +0.11% in the month, equivalent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of +1.3%, the softest such growth in five months There is much more in the mortgage monitor. There is much more in the newsletter.

22 hours ago 2 votes

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March Employment Preview

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 150k in March, slightly above consensus ... We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.1%. emphasis added From BofA: Nonfarm payrolls are likely to increase by a robust 185k in March, higher than consensus expectations of 135k, due to payback in leisure & hospitality for cold weather in Jan and Feb. Government job growth is expected to come in at just 10k due to the federal hiring freeze/DOGE. Given the muted claims data in the survey week, we do not expect DOGE driven job cuts to be a sizable drag, although risks are to the downside. We expect the u rate to remain at 4.1%. • ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 155,000 private sector jobs were added in March.  This was above consensus forecasts and suggests job gains above consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report. ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index decreased to 44.7%, down from 47.6% the previous month.   This would suggest about 50,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 21,000 manufacturing jobs added in March. ISM® services employment index decreased to 46.2%, from 53.5%. This would suggest 30,000 jobs lost in the service sector. Combined this suggests 80,000 jobs added, well below consensus expectations.  (Note: The ISM surveys have been way off recently) Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed about the same initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 225,000 in March compared to 224,000 in February.  This suggests layoffs in March were about the same as in February. • Conclusion: Over the last year, employment gains averaged 155 thousand per month - and that is probably the current trend.  It seems early for the government related layoffs to significantly impact employment.  Also, although the ISM employment indexes were weak this month, my guess is headline employment gains will be above consensus in March.

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ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50.8% in March; Employment Index Declined Sharply

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.8%, down from 53.5% last month. The employment index decreased to 46.2%, from 53.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 50.8% March 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the ninth consecutive month in March, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, indicating expansion for the 55th time in 58 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020. The Employment Index dropped into contraction territory for its first time in six months; the reading of 46.2 percent is a 7.7-percentage point decrease compared to the 53.9 percent recorded in February. emphasis added This was below consensus expectations.

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