Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release February Existing Home sales on Thursday, March 20th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 4.08 million in January. Last year, the NAR reported sales in February 2024 at 4.31 million SAAR. Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely months-of-supply will increase into the Summer. There is much more in the article.

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The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins. Chaos Monkeys excel at distraction and extortion. They appear suddenly, leaping about in disorienting mayhem, selecting their targets among those dizzied by sensory overload and confusion. They may appear harmless, until they grab something of ours that is valuable or even essential, and then extort something they value in exchange for what they stole from us. Monkey steals tourist's phone, negotiates for food in exchange Here's how the extortion works in the larger world: you buy an accounting software program, and over the years you dutifully upgrade it from time to time, storing all your financial data in the program. Enter the Chaos Monkeys: you can no longer buy the software, now you must rent it via a monthly subscription. Wait--did you just grab my data, and are extorting me to pay you to get it back? Yes. Chaos Monkeys don't offer you higher quality goods or services; they take something away from you and extort a payment if you want it back.. This is--along with addiction--the business model of this era: take something away from you and then extort a payment to restore it. Distracted and disoriented by the chaos around us, we cave in to the extortion. What's being taken from us comes in many forms. The durability of basic appliances has been taken from us, and the extortion payment is "extended warranties." Wait a minute--didn't this product once have a multi-year warranty? Not any more. Now you have to pay extra for a warranty. The problem with the Chaos Monkeys Business Model is deeper than its crassness. The problem is the Chaos Monkeys Business Model erodes trust in the system, as everything is either designed to addict us or become essential enough that we can be extorted to pay more for what was once standard. The extortion is so blatant that it reveals the true nature of our economy and society. As with purposefully addictive products and services, we're nothing more than profit centers to the addiction dealers and the Chaos Monkey extortionists. One trust is eroded, the system starts collapsing under its immense weight of chaos, addiction and extortion. When everything is a con of one kind or another, then what's left? In terms of a functional social order, nothing. What isn't fake, a fraud, addictive, misrepresented or designed to extort future payments from us? The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins: do you want what you once had back? Then pay up. New podcast: Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? (40 min) My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. 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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, down from 42 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty Economic uncertainty, the threat of tariffs and elevated construction costs pushed builder sentiment down in March even as builders express hope that a better regulatory environment will lead to an improving business climate. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 39 in March, down three points from February and the lowest level in seven months, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. ... emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was below the consensus forecast.