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Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years. A bit of history I ended up with my Modern Flat in that common way that many ‘accidental’ landlords have. It was my first rung on the property ownership ladder. Until it was time to… Continue reading Buy to let: RIP →
Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the so-called “Pakistani grooming gangs” scandal here in the UK, with Elon Musk weighing in. At the time it seemed remarkable but one month later, as I write this, I am pleased to say I can’t remember the… Continue reading Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins →
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but not yet Rather like The Investor at Monevator, I firmly believe in the merits of low cost index tracking as an investment strategy, but I also enjoy the thrills / intellectual excitement of deviating from the true… Continue reading My exits – a post mortem →
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes – arguably reverting to… Continue reading Dec ’24 – 2024 in review →
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Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.
The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday. ----- Monday, March 31st ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March. ----- Tuesday, April 1st ----- 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS. ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, unchanged from 50.3 in February. Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in construction spending. All Day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.6 million SAAR in March, up from 16.0 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). ----- Wednesday, April 2nd ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 77,000 added in February. ----- Thursday, April 3rd ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week. 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. ISM Services Index for March. ----- Friday, April 4th ----- 8:30 AM: Employment Report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia
As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions himself for maximum personal profit
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 27th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. [Mar 28th estimate]
