This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023 were: “We've already started the process of where that capacity is coming out.  A lot of it transborder, big drop in Canadian traffic to go into the U.S.”. This could impact hotel occupancy in the U.S. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 March The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 March. ... 2-8 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 62.4% (-1.4%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Click on graph for larger image. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue). Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. The 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next several weeks.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined. Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $169.4 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $0.3 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.4 trillion. Click on graph for larger image. Net worth increased $0.2 trillion in Q4 to an all-time high.  As a percent of GDP, net worth decreased in Q4 and is below the peak in 2021. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.   Mortgage debt increased by $100 billion in Q4. Mortgage debt is up $2.57 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 44.9% - down from Q3 - and down from a peak of 73.1% of GDP during the housing bust. The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q4 and is below the recent peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Nationwide, borrower equity increased by $281.9 billion, or 1.7% year-over-year. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 61% of all properties) saw home equity increase by about $4,100 between Q4 2023 and Q4 2024, which is less than the gain of $6,000 in Q3 2023. The states that saw the largest gains were New Jersey ($39,400), Connecticut ($36,300), and Massachusetts ($34,400), while the largest losses were in Hawaii ($-28,700), Florida ($-18,100), and the District of Columbia ($-14,700). From the press release: Home prices continued to be the major driver of equity shifts and markets with declining prices generally saw fallen equity in 2024. In particular, a number of Florida’s markets, including Cape Coral, Sarasota, Lakeland and Tampa have experienced weakening prices over the past year, which led to Florida’s average equity declining by about $18,000 at the end of 2024. Thinking ahead, in light of mass government layoffs in Washington metro region, it is important to note that borrowers in the tri-state area have accumulated between $261,000 (in Maryland), $287,000 (in Virginia) and $353,000 (in Washington DC), in average home equity which will help as a financial buffer but also provide a downpayment in case of a move. This map from CoreLogic shows the average year-over-year change in equity by state.  States with surging inventory - like Florida and Texas - saw declines in equity.