More from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith
These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of caregiving don't get much attention. They're not part of the news flow, and the day-to-day grind of caregiving doesn't lend itself to the self-promotional zeitgeist of social media. Look at me, helping Mom on her walker is not going to score big numbers online. The burdens in human and financial terms are often crushing. These realities are generally obscured by taboos and Hollywood cliches: it's considered bad form to describe the burdens of caregiving, and anyone who dares to do so is quickly chided: "You're lucky your parent is still alive so you can spend quality time together." Meanwhile, back in the real world, 4 in 10 family caregivers rarely or never feel relaxed, according to a 2023 AARP survey, as an integral part of caregiving is being on constant alert for something untoward happening to the elderly person in one's care. The demographics are sobering: we're living longer, often much longer, than previous generations, and in greater numbers. This means 65-year olds are caring for 85-year olds and 70-year olds are caring for 90+-year olds. I've logged 8+ years of caregiving (5+ years here at home) from age 63 to 70 caring for my mom-in-law, so I have personal experience of being old enough to "retire" but retirement is a fantasy for caregivers. Our neighbors are 80+ years of age and they're caring for her 102-year old Mom. What's this retirement thing people talk about so cheerily? All these realities are abstractions until they happen to you. These burdens are seeping down to Gen X and the Millennial generation. 'It's a job, and a tough one': the pain and privilege of being a millennial caregiver. The financial costs of care are staggering. A bed in private assisted living is around $75,000 and up a year, a private room in a nursing home is around $150,000 a year, and round-the-clock care at home costs from $150,000 to $250,000+ annually. The Crushing Financial Burden of Aging at Home (WSJ.com) "Christine Salhany spends about $240,000 a year for 24-hour in-home care for her husband who has Alzheimer's. In Illinois, Carolyn Brugioni's dad exhausted his savings and took out a home-equity line-of-credit to pay for home healthcare." More than 11,000 people in the U.S. are turning 65 every day and the vast majority--77% of Americans age 50 and older according to an AARP survey--want to live as long as possible in their current home. At some point, many will need help. About one-fourth of those 65 and older will eventually require significant support and services for more than three years, according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. About one-third of retirees don't have resources to afford even a year of minimal care, according to the Boston College center. "The new inheritance is not having enough money to give to kids but to have enough money to cover long-term care costs, says Liz O'Donnell, the Boston-based founder of Working Daughter, an online community of caregivers. The costs of home care are so high that not just inheritances are exhausted; the home equity is also drained. $350,000 sounds like a lot of money but that might cover two years in a nursing home but not be enough to cover two years of round-the-clock care at home. The cost of maintaining the home doesn't go away: property taxes, insurance and maintenance expenses must be paid, too. Those without monumental financial resources make do by doing everything themselves. Depending on the resources available in the community, there may be some minimal assistance such as weekly visits by a nurse, meals delivered, and adult day-care facilities, but there are no guarantees any of these are available or that the family qualifies. In other words, the idea that the retired generation will leave ample inheritances is increasingly detached from reality. As noted, the new inheritance is to get through the years of caregiving without acquiring debt. The human costs are high, too. In the Hollywood cliche, everyone adapts and makes the best of it, and there's plenty of Hallmark moments that make it all worthwhile. Yes, there are Hallmark moments, but the elderly person misses their independence and may feel resentment that they no longer control how things are done. The caregivers are often exhausted--especially if they're 65 or older--and despite their best efforts may feel resentment at ending their careers early and sacrificing their own last best years caring for a decidedly unstellar parent who doesn't seem to appreciate the immense sacrifices being made on their behalf. The indignities of extreme old age weigh on the elderly, and the 65+ caregivers worry that they can't pick Mom or Dad up now that they're so old that they have their own infirmities. The responsible parent frets at the expense and feels bad they won't be able to pass on much to their grandkids. They may express guilt at being a burden, though that is beyond their control. The responsible adult child is burning out trying to juggle three generations and keep themselves glued together enough to keep functioning. They can't help but want their own life back, but to say this out loud is taboo because if life gives you lemons, make lemonade. In other words, tell us a happy story, repeat an acceptable cliche or say nothing. Nobody wants to hear any of this, and so the caregiver develops a self-contained stoicism. Everyone with no experience of caregiving wants to hear the Hollywood version, and so conversations with other caregivers are the only moments where the truth can be expressed and heard. In the rest of "normal life," the caregiver quickly learns to say what's expected: "We're managing. Life's good." This cultural taboo means the difficult realities that will multiply as 68 million Boomers age will come as an unwelcome surprise. Everyone wants to end their lives at home, we all understand this. While the fortunate elderly die peacefully at home after a brief illness, the less fortunate require levels of care that soon exhaust people and bank accounts. The burdens of caring for the remaining Silent Generation are high, but what about the 60 million retiree tsunami of the Boomer generation? As the general health of the American public declines, how many people will be healthy enough to care for their very elderly parents or grandparents? Who will do the often thankless work of caring for the very elderly at home and in nursing homes? These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. The fantasy is that 60 million very elderly will be tended by robots, All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace. But this isn't realistic, despite all the giddy claims. The American zeitgeist rejects problems for which there is no facile technological solution. But reality isn't a narrative, and the elderly person who fell and can't get up wants a bit of caring and sympathy, and the aging child wants to help their parent. That it isn't easy to do so requires a stoicism worthy of Marcus Aurelius. "You have power over your mind--not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength." "Accept the things to which fate binds you, and love the people with whom fate brings you together, but do so with all your heart." "Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present." All Watched Over By Machines Of Loving Grace by Richard Brautigan I like to think (and My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Robin C. ($100), for your outrageously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Heather L. ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Karen K. ($50), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Mark H. ($25), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an easily digestible construct. (I tease all this apart in my book The Mythology of Progress.) Being social animals, humans are also hard-wired to quickly form loyalties to groups and gravitate to one camp. Very few football fans (if any) have zero loyalty to any team and have zero emotional stake (i.e. there's no team they hope loses and none they hope will win). Uncertainty generates anxiety, and so we settle the real world's many uncertainties with internal certainty: an ideology is a simple sketch of how the world works, and we will defend this emotionally powerful construct even as evidence piles up that it doesn't accurately map all of the world's complexities. We will deny, rationalize and cherry-pick examples to "prove" our ideological certainties map the real world. The problem with radically simplified constructs like mythologies and ideologies is they cannot possibly map the world accurately as complex, interactive systems don't reduce down to a simplified construct. So every ideological construct ends up denying, rationalizing and cherry-picking examples to cover the inherent weaknesses of simplifying the world into bite-sized constructs. Our intense drive to establish and nurture loyalties leads to emotionally satisfying but often counter-productive convolutions, such as any enemy of my enemy is my friend and any friend of my enemy is my enemy. The problems with ideological constructs are magnified in tumultuous times as ideologies map a rapidly shrinking share of the real world. The internally coherent ideology drifts further into incoherence, and our natural defense is not to become more open-minded (i.e. actively embrace uncertainty and entertain new ideas) but to cling even harder to the simplified certainties that generate our internal sense of self and certainty. Since the faithful of competing ideologies are pursuing the same strategy to reduce anxiety, our loyalties clash with increasing intensity. That possibility that all the ideologies claiming to map the real world are increasingly detached from real-world dynamics doesn't occur to any true believer in any camp, for each believer remains confident (and when pushed, becomes ever more adamant) that their ideology is the one true construct that faithfully maps all of the real world's immense complexity. Such is the power of these internally coherent constructs that we don't see them as belief structures, we see them as the bedrock of truth. We don't recognize our ideological beliefs as beliefs open to question, and so when challenged, we respond defensively: Ideology? What ideology? What I'm saying is the truth. Yes, true to us, but an accurate account / map of all the world's complexity? No. To each believer in an ideology, the problem isn't that their ideology is not mapping the real world with sufficient accuracy to successfully navigate increasingly stormy seas. The problem is the other ideologies are obstructing our solutions, which are guaranteed to work if pursued with absolute purity. Compromises introduce fatal impurities and so of course they fail to fix what's broken. If only all those misguided souls abandoned their wrong-headed beliefs and joined our temple, then we'd clear up all the real-world problems in no time. But alas, the fools insist on clinging to their completely misguided faith in false gods. In this increasingly bitter environment, up becomes down and vice versa. Common sense--by definition, an attempt to map real world complexities based on practicalities rather than internally coherent constructs and loyalties--is tossed aside in favor of doubling down on the simplified precepts of the ideology. We end up arguing about internally coherent simplifications, none of which do a productive job of mapping the real world, and accusations and raw emotions replace rationality. We are raging, spittle flying, demanding everyone agree with us that 100 angels can dance on the head of pin, not 10 and not 1,000. How can we trust anyone who so adamantly clings to such wrong-headed ideas? We can't, so social trust plummets accordingly. Those without any ideological faith watch the emotional fireworks with stunned amazement. So you think Dallas should be nuked because you hate the Cowboys? Um, okay.... But does nuking the Cowboys really clear your team's path to the Super Bowl? The more the real world unravels into complex uncertainties, the greater our need to cling to certainties as the source of our internal security and hope. Rather than see the failure of all internally coherent but increasingly incoherent constructs to map the real world as the core problem, we see those with different ideological beliefs as the problem. If we managed to set all ideological beliefs and constructs aside for a brief moment, is there anything we might agree on? As a thought experiment, imagine an AI project tasked with providing solutions to the core threats to our future stability and security. Is there anything the program might suggest that we could agree on? How about accountability and transparency? Can we agree on the practical value of making those wielding power accountable for their actions and decisions? Can anyone contest the practicality of demanding an honest, transparent, accurate accounting of public funds and publicly traded private-sector enterprises? Can anyone contest that transparency is the foundation of sound decision-making? Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. The irony here is the more the real world changes in ways that don't map simplistic ideologies, the greater our urgency to cling even harder to the simplicities we've invested with our identity and loyalty, and the stronger our instinct to lash out at anyone who disagrees with us, as if their disagreement is the problem, rather than the real-world complexities that no simple construct can map with any functional utility. Rather than nuking Dallas, maybe finding some sort of practical, common-sense middle ground might be the wiser course, even though it goes against every fiber of our hard-wired instincts to circle the wagons to defend the one true construct and declare those who disagree as the problem. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Cheryl A. ($50), for your much-appreciated generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Steven R ($50), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, NeilHrab ($50), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Alexander H. ($7/month), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.
The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable speculative asset in the global financialization casino. It can't be both. We tend to think of housing becoming unaffordable as a matter of land prices, zoning and the cost of 2X4s, but it's fundamentally a matter of values. Subscriber John summarized this in an insightful comment on Substack: "For me, this issue is a reflection of the values of our culture. 1. Lack of value placed on community means that a house is primarily a financial asset, not a home. 2. Lack of valuing community, means that we have not supported local business / industry and allowed these to be centralized or outsourced. 3. Lack of valuing self-sufficiency means that the only way we can view a house as an asset is when it increases in value. How much income does your house generate every month? (even if you count that income in tomatoes). Most of the housing being built is nothing more than boxes with a roof no matter how fancy the box. There is no awareness of how that housing is a part of the ecology that it is built in." This boils down to a simple choice: either housing is shelter for the citizenry, or it's just another asset class to be snapped up for private profit / gain by global capital. Choose one. This is one of the many pernicious consequences of glorifying Financialization as the most important dynamic in our economy and society. Once an economy has been financialized, everything becomes a commodity in the global marketplace to be bought and sold as an interchangeable asset. A flat in Bangkok, a flat in Barcelona, a flat in Miami: they're all the same to global capital, which includes trillions of dollars of non-U.S. wealth sloshing around seeking profitable places to park surplus capital, and domestic wealth doing the same thing, moving wealth around interchangeable assets to maximize private gain. This is the iron logic of Financialization and Globalization: housing is just another asset class to exploit. What effect the tsunami of wealth has on the communities being shredded is of zero interest to non-resident owners, corporations and speculators. Buying up houses to rent as short-term vacation rentals (STVRs), or simply left empty is just like buying a corporate bond: you move your capital around to maximize private gains, there's no difference between housing, shares in a mining company, bonds or any other financial commodity. This is how you end up with entire residential buildings having only a few residents, as 90+% of the owners don't live there, they just own the flat or house as a place to safely park surplus capital or visit a few days of the year on vacation. This is a global reality that anyone can observe who cares to open their eyes. Is housing shelter for citizens or is it a commodity asset one buys for profit as a mini-hotel? In popular tourist areas, consequential percentages of the housing has been snapped up by the wealthy as STVRs, short-term rental housing, the vast majority of which are owned not by hosts who live in the house as their sole residence but by absentee hosts who live half a world away and who have zero interest in the locale or community their interchangeable rental happens to be in. Restrictions on new housing serve the self-serving interests profiting from locking down the status quo. Anything that might negatively affect valuations is resisted. This urge to pull the ladder up behind us is natural, but is it fair to the generations behind us? As for all the restrictions, regulations and permitting--has anyone looked at this mass of costs with fresh eyes, asking if it's truly serving the citizenry? Or can much of it be stripped away as bureaucratic clutter or lobbying imposed by self-serving interests? We need to ask cui bono-- to whose benefit? Everyone is for solutions to housing unaffordability that don't diminish the value of their house. But the price is the problem. As I explained in Housing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling, turning housing into just another table in the financialization casino has inflated a bubble of unprecedented proportions that has distorted not just affordability but the fabric of society. Those who bought homes long ago are now wealthy not from genius but simply from timing. Buying in before the bubble inflated has generated generational and regional divides of the haves and the have-nots that are corrosive to the economy and society. Let's start with housing affordability. It's in the basement. The generations who bought homes 25 or more years ago have accumulated most of the wealth. When houses increase in value ten-fold while wages rise by a third, this is the result: Here's the National Case Shiller Housing Index. I've added long-term trendlines to clarify the two housing bubbles inflated by rampant financialization. A return to the upper trendline would require a 40% drop in current valuations, and a return to the lower trendline would require a 50% decline. Since financialization inflated housing to unaffordable heights, the only way to restore affordability is to eliminate the perverse incentives and distortions of financialization by taking these steps to return housing to sheltering the citizenry: 1. Impose a national ban on all short-term vacation rentals except those hosted by full-time owner-occupants. Those caught cheating would be fined $10,000 per violation (i.e. each rental to a new vacationer), with no upper limit. I know all the rationalizations, hut here's the thing: if you want to own and operate a mini-hotel, go build one in a resort / commercial zone. Residential housing is for residents, not a place for global capital to park surplus wealth or stripmine for private gain. Those full-time owner-occupants who want to rent out a room in their house to vacationers, that's fine. 2. Impose national limits on non-resident ownership of housing. An outright total ban on non-resident ownership of housing would be best, but if that's politically impossible, then requirements for residency would be the next best thing: if the owner leaves the home empty for 6 months or longer, a $100,000 fee is imposed annually. Anyone caught cheating would be fined the current value of the home. Once again, the choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable speculative asset in the global financialization casino. It can't be both. Rationalizing excuses that it can serve both is why the few profiting from the rationalizations are so desperate to obscure this simple, fundamental choice. The third solution is to open the locked doors of zoning, planning and industry standards to new types of housing that would be unconventional but affordable. Every locale will have to wrestle with the forces of keeping the status quo locked down and the need to loosen restrictions and free up experimentation in housing. There isn't one-size-fits-all; every community will have to establish what works best for their economy and populace. One system builds communities, another destroys them. Take your pick, but choose wisely. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Cheryl N. ($100), for your outrageously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Jerry K. ($100), for your outrageously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Lindsay M. ($70), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Riderslb123 ($70), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.
Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of us. I remember sitting in my car in a parking lot, unwilling to tear myself away from reading it. Here's the super-short summary: from time to time markets crash for no visible reason. The internal dynamics of market structures are fractal, and one feature of this structure is that markets break down unpredictably. After the fact, we seek an external trigger--a Federal Reserve "policy error," inflation fears, etc.--but these post-mortem explanations gloss over the cause, which is the inherent instability of market structures. Markets can trundle along for years appearing to be stable and controllable. Any spot of bother can be corrected with a reduction in interest rates or quantitative easing. Everything is known and controllable. But this control is illusory. Out of the blue, markets stop behaving. They misbehave, and possibly quite badly. Nature offers many examples. The seas are relatively calm, and suddenly an enormous rogue wave appears. At that point, the condition of the ship matters. A sound craft will survive the rogue wave, the leaky, rotten hulk won't. Human hubris also matters. If the passengers and crew of the hulk have been persuaded by each other's happy talk that the ship is rock-solid, then its breaking apart will come as a nasty shock. In the current zeitgeist, the consensus is the mighty ship of the stock market is a superliner. No matter how big the rogue wave, the ship will handle it easily. But what if the consensus is wrong, and we're all passengers on a rotting hulk gussied up with new paint? What if the consensus isn't based on the soundness of the hull, but on the self-reinforcing happy-talk around the dessert cart and bar? The consensus is convinced the ship is unsinkable, and so the guaranteed path to profit is to "buy the dip" after the rogue wave has passed. This guarantee is not actually causal; it's recency bias, as "buy the dip" has worked like magic for 15 years. Nobody's interested in leaving the first class casino to get in a lifeboat when guaranteed profits beckon. The question is: how sound is the hull? Who's actually checking, and who's just parroting happy-talk? Can we even tell the difference? In a euphoric speculative bubble, the answer is "no." In a speculative bubble, "buy the dip" is all you need to know to win big, and continue winning big. So who cares about rogue waves and rotten hulls? I often refer to this chart of the dot-com bubble because this happened not in some pre-technology era but in the technology-obsessed present. I attended Comdex in Las Vegas in the peak euphoria, and attendees were busy trading stocks online amidst the crowd. Every bubble is forever until it is no more. Notice the numerous sharp spikes higher as the crowd "bought the dip." The initial crash was bought with all four feet, which was followed by a secondary crash to a new low, which was immediately bought, generating a euphoric spike that signaled "all clear, buy buy buy!" until it too rolled over. This was followed by one last manic "buy the dip" which resulted in a double-top. Once that petered out, a multi-year stair-step down began. The index eventually bottomed after losing about 80% of its peak valuation. Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Reynold W. ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Bob F. ($70), for your superbly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Farouk B. ($70), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Ed W. ($7/month), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.
More in finance
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales
Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade, Karp
The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February. During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 404 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. The average for February over the previous 10 years was 300 thousand (median 222 thousand), so more people than normal were impacted by bad weather. Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (monthly change, seasonally adjusted). They use local area weather to estimate the impact on employment. For February, the San Francisco Fed estimated that weather reduced employment by 2 to 12 thousand jobs. It appears weather adjusted job gains were around 160 thousand in February (seasonally adjusted)
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The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%. Earlier: February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate was unchanged in February at 83.5% from 83.5% in January. The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.5% from 80.7% the previous month. Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium. Average Hourly Wages The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in February. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report: The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 million from 4.48 million in January. This is above the pre-pandemic levels. alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.0% from 7.5% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Unemployed over 26 Weeks This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million. Job Streak Through February 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 50 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks Year EndedStreak, Months 12020113 2N/A501 3199048 4200746 5197945 6 tie194333 6 tie198633 6 tie200033 9196729 10199525 1Currrent Streak Summary: The headline number was decent.