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Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but not yet Rather like The Investor at Monevator, I firmly believe in the merits of low cost index tracking as an investment strategy, but I also enjoy the thrills / intellectual excitement of deviating from the true… Continue reading My exits – a post mortem →
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes – arguably reverting to… Continue reading Dec ’24 – 2024 in review →
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk of recession. A… Continue reading Nov ’24: 3x →
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds outside. Finally, the UK’s first Labour budget for… Continue reading Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders →
More in finance
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends; Wildfire Delinquencies Emerge • Delinquencies fell 24 basis points (bps) to 3.47% in January; that’s 10 bps higher than last year, but 33 bps below pre-pandemic levels Foreclosure starts jumped by 30% and sales rose by 25% in January – driven by an expiration in the VA foreclosure moratorium – with active inventory rising by 7% in the month emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here is a table from ICE.
By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the conglomerate likely.
From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 21st] emphasis added From Goldman: [W]e lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate by 0.1pp to +2.1%. We left our Q4 past quarter tracking estimate unchanged at +2.1%. [Feb 19th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow [T]he GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on February 19, unchanged from February 14 after rounding. [Feb 19th estimate]
Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in three regions and were unchanged in the South. seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million in January. Year-over-year, sales improved 2.0% (up from 4 million in January 2024). emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This was the fourth consecutive year-over-year increase after declining YoY every month for over 3 years. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.18 million in January from 1.14 million the previous month. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. Inventory was up 16.8% year-over-year (blue) in January compared to January 2024. The sales rate was below the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.
