(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the seventh consecutive month in January, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent, indicating expansion for the 53rd time in 56 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020. the Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December figure of 54 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 54.5 percent in January, 3.5 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted 58 percent recorded in December. After seasonal adjustments, this is the 56th consecutive month of expansion for the index. The New Orders Index recorded a reading of 51.3 percent in January, 3.1 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December figure of 54.4 percent. The Employment Index remained in expansion territory for the fourth consecutive month; the reading of 52.3 percent is a 1-percentage point increase compared to the seasonally adjusted 51.3 percent recorded in December. emphasis added This was below consensus expectations.

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November, revised. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Exports and imports increased in November. Both imports and exports have generally increased recently.   The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. It is likely some importers were trying to beat potential tariffs.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 31, 2025. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. Purchase activity had a tougher week, with declines across all loan types. The average loan size for a purchase loan has increased since the start of the year and continued that trend last week with weaker government purchase activity, which reached $447,300, the highest level since October 2024.” ... emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).   Purchase application activity is up about 25% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 4% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.   The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990. The refinance index remains very low.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in January, up from 122,000 added in December. Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $87.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $78.2 billion in November. ISM Services Index for January.