(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the seventh consecutive month in January, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent, indicating expansion for the 53rd time in 56 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020. the Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December figure of 54 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 54.5 percent in January, 3.5 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted 58 percent recorded in December. After seasonal adjustments, this is the 56th consecutive month of expansion for the index. The New Orders Index recorded a reading of 51.3 percent in January, 3.1 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December figure of 54.4 percent. The Employment Index remained in expansion territory for the fourth consecutive month; the reading of 52.3 percent is a 1-percentage point increase compared to the seasonally adjusted 51.3 percent recorded in December. emphasis added This was below consensus expectations.

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November, revised. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Exports and imports increased in November. Both imports and exports have generally increased recently.   The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. It is likely some importers were trying to beat potential tariffs.

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production.” This was above the consensus forecast of 150,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 170,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in January.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in January, up from 122,000 added in December. Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $87.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $78.2 billion in November. ISM Services Index for January.